Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Galzria]

I still don't like eHunt killing on a Robz Mafia flip... I can see an advantage in being 3-1 compared to 2-1 (namely: if there is a mislynch, we have more town alive at night to do something useful. If we hit tomorrow night 1-1 instead of 2-1, we cannot win under any circumstances).

[Robz888]

I still don't like eHunt killing on a Robz Mafia flip... I can see an advantage in being 3-1 compared to 2-1 (namely: if there is a mislynch, we have more town alive at night to do something useful. If we hit tomorrow night 1-1 instead of 2-1, we cannot win under any circumstances).

Me neither!

Vote: eHunt

[Captain_Frisk]

Well - OMGUS.

I've got my instructions in already if that's the way the rest of you decide to go.

[Robz888]

No, it's Frisk. It's Frisk and Galzria. Unless Galzria is with me on voting Frisk.

Vote: Captain_Frisk

[Robz888]

Vote: Captain_Frisk

[Captain_Frisk]

I still don't like eHunt killing on a Robz Mafia flip... I can see an advantage in being 3-1 compared to 2-1 (namely: if there is a mislynch, we have more town alive at night to do something useful. If we hit tomorrow night 1-1 instead of 2-1, we cannot win under any circumstances).

There is one advantage - if we get to 2-1 because 2 people died - then we know eHunt is town.

[Galzria]

I still don't like eHunt killing on a Robz Mafia flip... I can see an advantage in being 3-1 compared to 2-1 (namely: if there is a mislynch, we have more town alive at night to do something useful. If we hit tomorrow night 1-1 instead of 2-1, we cannot win under any circumstances).

Me neither!

Vote: eHunt

For the record, how does this scenario concern you? If you flip town my point is null and void...

[ehunt]

@Galz - ok, more math, sorry.

Robz flips mafia. Tonight's pool, 4-1. I try to kill mafia; it's not yuma or me so probability of a hit is 1/3 (of course you don't necessarily believe it's not me, but this analysis is obviously irrelevant if it's me). Either I die or yuma. Worst-case scenario, I mislynch. Tomorrow's pool, 2-1. Probability of a mafia lynch is 1/3. Yuma still alive leaves it at 1/2. Our win chance is pretty good. (1/2) + (2/3)*(1/2) = 2/3. Yuma dead is sad, but then I get another chance to night kill the mafia so it's not gg.

Now say I don't kill tonight. Tomorrow's pool 3-1, odds of a hit are 1/4. Yuma still alive boosts it to 1/3. Then chance of a night kill depends on who is alive, could be as good as a 1/2, but we won't be certain who has a kill.

[ehunt]

not sure I did the math right, please check it.

Also, wait a second. Four of us have expressed willingness to lynch RobZ. Shouldn't I just target O if RobZ is mafia?

[Robz888]

not sure I did the math right, please check it.

Also, wait a second. Four of us have expressed willingness to lynch RobZ. Shouldn't I just target O if RobZ is mafia?

It doesn't matter who you would target if I'm mafia. Carry on.

[Robz888]

Robz lynch is sobs lynch.

[ehunt]

not sure I did the math right, please check it.

Also, wait a second. Four of us have expressed willingness to lynch RobZ. Shouldn't I just target O if RobZ is mafia?

It doesn't matter who you would target if I'm mafia. Carry on.

Are you softclaiming that you killed Insomniac and so I am not a vig?

[Robz888]

not sure I did the math right, please check it.

Also, wait a second. Four of us have expressed willingness to lynch RobZ. Shouldn't I just target O if RobZ is mafia?

It doesn't matter who you would target if I'm mafia. Carry on.

Are you softclaiming that you killed Insomniac and so I am not a vig?

I was saying it's a scenario you don't have to consider, because I will flip Town Apothecary. If you would do it all ready, you would see.

[Galzria]

Well, but so did O (expressed interest):

 

You should know, Galzria, that I would never defend a fellow scum.

>implying he uses same strategy every game
>possible chainsaw defense
>"go ahead, vote for me"

vote:Robz

So now we have 5 willing, which is too many. Granted O's vote was before there was anything threatening to Robz.

3 options:

1. O is scum with Robz trying to win my trust by defending me and voting his partner in a no-pressure situation.

(Would they have continued to drag the day out by staying on opposite wagons all this time instead of pushing for a lynch?)

2. Someone is fine bussing their teammate now for town cred day 3

(Possible, but is it likely?)

3. Robz is town. This wagon is getting full quickly because scum like it as it's not them.

(Again, possible. More likely than the other two?)

---

I would like each of your thoughts on the three items above please.

[Captain_Frisk]

@Galz - ok, more math, sorry.

Robz flips mafia. Tonight's pool, 4-1. I try to kill mafia; it's not yuma or me so probability of a hit is 1/3 (of course you don't necessarily believe it's not me, but this analysis is obviously irrelevant if it's me). Either I die or yuma. Worst-case scenario, I mislynch. Tomorrow's pool, 2-1. Probability of a mafia lynch is 1/3. Yuma still alive leaves it at 1/2. Our win chance is pretty good. (1/2) + (2/3)*(1/2) = 2/3. Yuma dead is sad, but then I get another chance to night kill the mafia so it's not gg.

Now say I don't kill tonight. Tomorrow's pool 3-1, odds of a hit are 1/4. Yuma still alive boosts it to 1/3. Then chance of a night kill depends on who is alive, could be as good as a 1/2, but we won't be certain who has a kill.

If you kill someone (not Yuma) and yuma dies, then we know you are town because the mafia can't NK twice.  We have a 50/50 chance of killing mafia - as whoever is left should vote with you. 

If you and mafia target the same person (lol) - then we're @ 3-1 and we debate

If mafia elects not to night kill - then we debate

In either of the latter two scenarios, I'd strongly suggest lynching you and rolling the dice with night powers.

[Captain_Frisk]

Galzria - do you have any other issues other than eHunt potentially shooting you in my proposed plan?

[ehunt]

Well, but so did O (expressed interest):

 

You should know, Galzria, that I would never defend a fellow scum.

>implying he uses same strategy every game
>possible chainsaw defense
>"go ahead, vote for me"

vote:Robz

So now we have 5 willing, which is too many. Granted O's vote was before there was anything threatening to Robz.

3 options:

1. O is scum with Robz trying to win my trust by defending me and voting his partner in a no-pressure situation.

(Would they have continued to drag the day out by staying on opposite wagons all this time instead of pushing for a lynch?)

2. Someone is fine bussing their teammate now for town cred day 3

(Possible, but is it likely?)

3. Robz is town. This wagon is getting full quickly because scum like it as it's not them.

(Again, possible. More likely than the other two?)

---

I would like each of your thoughts on the three items above please.

1. I had always thought that O v Robz parked on two distinct wagons and refusing to move seemed scummy. Allowed for a quick move by either at the end, with the other looking hopelessly good. But I didn't notice that O was on Robz for a bit before that happened. As you said, it was a very safe time. Still.

2. That's interesting. We absolutely can't rule out a bus if Robz is mafia. So maybe in that scenario I should use my role by time stamp at night? Everyone but yuma, based on time stamp mod 3, 0=Galz 1 =0 2 = Frisk.

3. I am a little worried that you and Frisk are spinning me like a record. But this wagon does distinctly seem to have exactly 4 people interested. But I had forgotten about this O vs. Robz incident which makes you look better.

[Captain_Frisk]

Where is O?  If he has time to Modkill ZXC and Axxle - he has time to come and say hi.

[Galzria]

Galzria - do you have any other issues other than eHunt potentially shooting you in my proposed plan?

What happens if eHunt hits town, and Mafia kill eHunt? We lose that "trusted townie", and are at Lylo 2-1 without eH.

I just don't think firing is worth the tradeoff.

If it's insisted he shoots, well, yeah, I suppose he should choose randomly (or by his own standards). I really don't like it though.

[ehunt]

What happens if eHunt hits town, and Mafia kill eHunt? We lose that "trusted townie", and are at Lylo 2-1 without eH.

But in this case you have yuma.

[Galzria]

What happens if eHunt hits town, and Mafia kill eHunt? We lose that "trusted townie", and are at Lylo 2-1 without eH.

But in this case you have yuma.

That's true. But like your above comment, I feel spun like a record.

I just don't TRUST Zxcvbn's play prior to your arrival. You're still my strongest lynch, and while Robz has his share of scuminess...

Just, ugh.

If we lynch someone other than you and we hit town, we've likely lost, regardless of if you're lying. We MIGHT get lucky, but it's just that: Luck.

If we lynch someone other than you and hit Mafia, you're willing to stake your town claim on there being two kills. If there's not, you should be a policy lynch D3, which sets the Mafia up to no kill.

And I'm running in circles. I just don't know. I feel safest not shooting anybody if we lynch Mafia. What I feel safest with doesn't mean it's the best though.

---

Stump.

[Captain_Frisk]

Stump.

Galz - it sounds like you're ok with the plan then.  I can see either way on the eHunt night kill - but I kindof think that opposing would be being afraid of the kill would be scummy.  Of course, that would make the pair RobZ + Galz - and I'm not sure that RobZ would be willing to leave his vote on his partner for so long.

Anyway - I'm watching Funny People with my wife.  I'm going to finish the movie, come downstairs, and make one last review before bed.

[ehunt]

I'll defer to Frisk and Yuma. Seems to me that if Robz is mafia, I target O with a high probability of a win. If not, I will die and O will die and Yuma gets to decide if he believes you or Frisk, still a good 50-50.

Oh, I just understood. You're saying if I'm wrong about O, mafia will no kill and we'll lose, because y'all will lynch me. Crap. Frisk? Yuma? opinions?

@Frisk that movie is so long. You will not be voting before like midnight.

[yuma]

Ok... Everything has become a bit discombobulated in my head....

Let's clarify:

If Robz flips town: ehunt targets Galz. I am hesitant about this, because it is a plan from someone we can't trust 100%. this is why I want Robz to take a part in this conversation. But if he won't then sure, go ahead...

If Robz flips mafia: ehunt targets O? I guess I am ok with this.

In both situations everyone else does nothing? Frankly, I don't like having ehunt drive this whole thing, but a plan is better than no plan.

As for Galz's three situations, at this point in the game all three seem as possible as the others, even the bussing.

[ehunt]

@yuma, no, we changed what happens if robz flips town to something more complicated - it's in one of frisk's posts, let me look.