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[shraeye]

I can understand your vote on me joth, but unfortunately not in a good way.  Insom is the most vocal about your case since he's posted the most.  I didn't have much of a chance to post until that argument had died down, and then I summed up my argument as cogently as I could.  That post was #249 for anyone who wants a refresher on why my vote is still on Joth.  Despite the fact that I was agreeing with Insom's position, I didn't feel like yelling "amen sista!" at any point.  Maybe it's because his posts are more scattered throughout different pages, but not all of his arguments came through crystal clear.  The reason I think you are voting for me is that I have put together a nice argument that you have no response to other than to keep trying to deflect it.  So let me make a 3 point post.

As for me mischaracterizing what you said, I disagree with that.  I'd like you to tell me anything in particular that I claimed you said, but you did not in fact say.  That's the first thing I'd like to see before I give any credence to your towniness.

Second thing: I especially dislike how when I asked you to explain your position in post #190 you instead say this in #256

@shraeye. It is not bad math to suggest that 18 observed cases of something failing to happen makes it unlikely to happen. It is good science. And I stand by it.

Here is the case I am making: F.DS day one meta produces significantly worse-than-random lynch odds.

There are reasons for this. One is that scum tend to be smarter than we give them credit for, and a townie is more likely to slip up (or self-destruct) day 1 than scum is. Another is that we tend to believe PR claims, so when we do finger scum they just claim and we move on to a VT who knows it wouldn't be protown to lie  - and then gets lynched.

I'm sure there are other factors. I don't know the exact reason. But I think it is self-evident that the above bolded statement is true. It's a pattern of failure and we can't move on from it until we acknowledge that fact. You and Insom seem to want to ignore it and hope it goes away. That's not good enough for me.

which in no way answers my question.  Additionally in that post, you try to paint me as "willfully ignoring" the fact that at f.DS day one meta produces significantly worse-than-random lynching odds.  I actually said this was possible way back in post #178 (bolded below), and went on to explain that my position was that DESPITE the short-term day-one gains, we will lose more with random lynch (italicized below).

My opinion on random lynch.  It is a bad idea.  It is possible that theoretically a random lynch will hit scum more often than f.DS's normal attempts, and we naturally want to lynch scum more often than possible, so I see short-term gains here.
But here's the kicker.  As we talk and discuss and vote/unvote, scum have forced themselves to take positions on things, defend people and thoughts, attack people and thoughts.  To randomize day 1 removes this context for the nightkills.  Instead of saying, "oh man, who was worried about Robz (presumed killed town in my purely hypothetical example)? that person starts looking suspicious."  We just say "dang, scum managed to hit town again, funny how they always do that...".

To randomize day 1 takes away our information for day two, and turns that into more of an RVS than it should be.  Thus the slight bonus for a better day 1 lynch really hurts our crucial day 2 lynch. (especially crucial if we mislynch, which still will occur 7/9 times, and double-super-especially crucial if we lynch power roles 2/9 times [sorry, useless-cop, but you suck])

so by mischaracterizing my statements, you set up a straw-man argument that you can easily defend against.  Let me just be crystal clear that your post #256 does not answer any of my arguments.

My third point:
In post #256, you didn't answer my call to explain post #190.  And you still haven't.  Explain what you meant by the third paragraph of post #190.  In detail.

[Archetype]

How do I come off scummy?

Because I was trying to end the Insom vs Jot argument? I didnt want that to continue because it just wastes time, which is something we are short on.

I dont know everyone's playstyles too well, but I'll go with this:
Vote: C_F

He was one of the ones who was egging on the argument.

Thats probably going to be my last post for the day, and I'll be back mid day tommorow. So dont accuse me of lurking

[Voltaire]

Vote Count 1.9

jotheonah (3) - shraeye, Insomniac, SwitchedFromStarcraft
Robz888 (1) - Captain_Frisk
Captain_Frisk (3) - Robz888, ashersky, Archetype
SwitchedFromStarcraft (1) - Eevee
shraeye (1) - jotheonah

Not voting: no-one

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline is tomorrow, September 18, at noon forum time (~12 hours from now).

Your mod is going to bed. I will be around for the entire morning/deadline tomorrow.

[Eevee]

Us being this scattered is not good, town hates nolynches after all. This has been a productive day, but we all seem to find different guys scummy (which is an improvement from everyone finding the same townie scummy I guess). I really hope we can find some agreement tomorrow! Jotheonah has the most votes on him now, and personally I don't like him as a target. I think most of the case against him is that people think he was being a bit obnoxious.

[jotheonah]

I can understand your vote on me joth, but unfortunately not in a good way.  Insom is the most vocal about your case since he's posted the most.  I didn't have much of a chance to post until that argument had died down, and then I summed up my argument as cogently as I could.  That post was #249 for anyone who wants a refresher on why my vote is still on Joth.  Despite the fact that I was agreeing with Insom's position, I didn't feel like yelling "amen sista!" at any point.  Maybe it's because his posts are more scattered throughout different pages, but not all of his arguments came through crystal clear.  The reason I think you are voting for me is that I have put together a nice argument that you have no response to other than to keep trying to deflect it.  So let me make a 3 point post.

As for me mischaracterizing what you said, I disagree with that.  I'd like you to tell me anything in particular that I claimed you said, but you did not in fact say.  That's the first thing I'd like to see before I give any credence to your towniness.

Second thing: I especially dislike how when I asked you to explain your position in post #190 you instead say this in #256

@shraeye. It is not bad math to suggest that 18 observed cases of something failing to happen makes it unlikely to happen. It is good science. And I stand by it.

Here is the case I am making: F.DS day one meta produces significantly worse-than-random lynch odds.

There are reasons for this. One is that scum tend to be smarter than we give them credit for, and a townie is more likely to slip up (or self-destruct) day 1 than scum is. Another is that we tend to believe PR claims, so when we do finger scum they just claim and we move on to a VT who knows it wouldn't be protown to lie  - and then gets lynched.

I'm sure there are other factors. I don't know the exact reason. But I think it is self-evident that the above bolded statement is true. It's a pattern of failure and we can't move on from it until we acknowledge that fact. You and Insom seem to want to ignore it and hope it goes away. That's not good enough for me.

which in no way answers my question.  Additionally in that post, you try to paint me as "willfully ignoring" the fact that at f.DS day one meta produces significantly worse-than-random lynching odds.  I actually said this was possible way back in post #178 (bolded below), and went on to explain that my position was that DESPITE the short-term day-one gains, we will lose more with random lynch (italicized below).

My opinion on random lynch.  It is a bad idea.  It is possible that theoretically a random lynch will hit scum more often than f.DS's normal attempts, and we naturally want to lynch scum more often than possible, so I see short-term gains here.
But here's the kicker.  As we talk and discuss and vote/unvote, scum have forced themselves to take positions on things, defend people and thoughts, attack people and thoughts.  To randomize day 1 removes this context for the nightkills.  Instead of saying, "oh man, who was worried about Robz (presumed killed town in my purely hypothetical example)? that person starts looking suspicious."  We just say "dang, scum managed to hit town again, funny how they always do that...".

To randomize day 1 takes away our information for day two, and turns that into more of an RVS than it should be.  Thus the slight bonus for a better day 1 lynch really hurts our crucial day 2 lynch. (especially crucial if we mislynch, which still will occur 7/9 times, and double-super-especially crucial if we lynch power roles 2/9 times [sorry, useless-cop, but you suck])

so by mischaracterizing my statements, you set up a straw-man argument that you can easily defend against.  Let me just be crystal clear that your post #256 does not answer any of my arguments.

My third point:
In post #256, you didn't answer my call to explain post #190.  And you still haven't.  Explain what you meant by the third paragraph of post #190.  In detail.

How you are mischaracterizing me (Insomniac is also doing this): You're presenting me as hammering the case for a random lynch, when in actuality I suggested it as a possibility, made a case for it, and said explicitly that e should only do it if a majority of the town agrees. I answered criticisms as best I could. When it became clear that the town was not in support of it, I withdrew the suggestion and urged us to move on. You and insom continued to bring it up, and to try to make into evidence that I am scum, a case that makes no sense to me. As I've said before, and despite Insom's imaginative theories, random lynch is a very stupid D1 scum strategy.

Notice I chose my words carefully. I didn't say you'd said anything false, just that you're implying my position to be much more demanding that it is. All I have ever done is made a suggestion and left it up for discussion for the town, clarifying when necessary.

The information question: We ARE discussing. We are interacting. Information is coming out, wagons are forming. Yes, if everyone had lined up like little ducks and agreed to the random lynch, that wouldn't have happened. But I don't think anyone thought that would happen that way. So your argument is invalid - we're getting as much D1 information as ever from this random lynch debacle. We also would have gotten information once we picked our target and they tried to talk us into a different target. Lots of information.

On my not answering the information question: Since it became obvious that the town didn't back random lynch, I have been trying to get us off a subject I no longer find useful to the town. That might be why I declined to write another long post about random lynch theory.

Where we should be looking now: Unlike my support of a random lynch, which was never going to be tied to a particular person, Robz actually followed through and voted for a randomly selected person. Robz also said he wouldn't vote for himself if he were randomly selected and called me a liar for saying I would. So I'm a bit suspicious of Robz. I'm also suspicious of shraeye for pushing my wagon very hard on very thin grounds. I don't get the CF wagon at all.

[ashersky]

Us being this scattered is not good, town hates nolynches after all. This has been a productive day, but we all seem to find different guys scummy (which is an improvement from everyone finding the same townie scummy I guess). I really hope we can find some agreement tomorrow! Jotheonah has the most votes on him now, and personally I don't like him as a target. I think most of the case against him is that people think he was being a bit obnoxious.

Wasn't it you who forgot this in ZM1, that no lynch only happens if we vote it?  Majority vote holder gets lynched at deadline.

[Eevee]

Us being this scattered is not good, town hates nolynches after all. This has been a productive day, but we all seem to find different guys scummy (which is an improvement from everyone finding the same townie scummy I guess). I really hope we can find some agreement tomorrow! Jotheonah has the most votes on him now, and personally I don't like him as a target. I think most of the case against him is that people think he was being a bit obnoxious.

Wasn't it you who forgot this in ZM1, that no lynch only happens if we vote it?  Majority vote holder gets lynched at deadline.

That was Robz, I was the one who corrected him there.. So yeah, sorry about that, tired. Luckily my point still stands though, because I don't like a Jot-lynch.

[jotheonah]

This is the paragraph shraeye wants me to explain in detail:

Finally, in the response to the Day 2 RVS argument against random lynch. That is why I think blitz mafia is the perfect time to try this, basically. Let's keep doing what we do until close to deadline, sure. But, in the absence of a genuinely scummy character at day's end, let's do random instead and actually have a chance of succeeding.

So, ok. Random lynch has never been tried here. Blitz is a logical place to try it, because it is fast and we have limited time. One problem with random lynch is that it limits discussion; here, our discussion is severely limited anyway by the quick deadline. Also if it turns out to be a huge failure, hey, at least the game is over quickly.

I also suggest, in this paragraph, that we reserve the random lynch as a last-minute option if we're still not happy with the wagons close to deadline. This, too, would be in the interest of maximizing Day 1 information generation while still maintaining the benefit of a random lynch; to wit, a legitimate 2/9 chance of a scum lynch which the mafia has no opportunity to manipulate.

[Robz888]

I don't get the CF wagon at all.

CF is the person chosen by the random system YOU suggested!!! It's CF or no random, man. We can't just go back after random picks somebody and re-evaluated it. I keep getting this crazy feeling that Frisk is your scumbuddy, the random got him, and now you are trying to either get a new random or no random at all in order to save him. Like, I know this is a totally crazy idea, I'm not dumb, I know it's ludicrous to expect random to give us mafia and more ludicrous to get the pair out of it, but... I don't see how you can not get the Frisk wagon. It's the wagon that resulted from YOUR suggestion, which I thought was a good one (to try out random in Blitz mafia).

And well, maybe I'm wrong. You WOULD vote for yourself if you promised to do so, I suppose. But look, it's anti-town to vote for yourself if you're town, plain and simple. So I would never actually do it, no matter what had been promised. And I suspect you wouldn't do it here, either, even in the scenario you outlined. WHich is why I think you're possibly a liar there.

[jotheonah]

Ok, Robz. I get why you're voting for CF. But other people?

Given that random has been resoundingly rejected, your continuing to cling to it kind of makes it look like you're scum who wants to lynch a townie and not be held accountable for it.

[ashersky]

But really, for now, vote: Frisk.  His fence comment to SFS was good for getting a response; his not responding or even acknowledging SFS's response was not.  Note, I don't really think Frisk will get lynch today, so this is more of a prod vote for useful Frisk posts, which are always helpful.

PPE (what's that mean, anyway?):  I see Frisk has the Dexter/Wife excuse running, which holds with previous games.  Still, say something this-game-related!

Quoting myself to answer Joth.  I expect I could wake up in the a.m. and see useful insight from CF and change my vote then.  But for now, this.  Too much fluff from Frisk.

[Archetype]

I explained why.

 He encouraged your and Insos debate on randomness. I'm assuming he did that to draw attention from himself bcause he was the choice for the random vote.

[jotheonah]

hmmm... I'm intrigued that people are independently coming to Frisk for different reasons. That always seems better to me than when everyone piles on for one thing.

The problem is, none of the reasons are strong enough for me to feel good about a Frisk lynch. On the other hand, since the other big wagon is on me, the relevant question might just be "Would I rather lynch Frisk than me?" and the answer is of course, yes.

Still, not comfortable putting him at L-1.

[jotheonah]

We have 2 people at L-2. Scum could quickhammer either of us at this point. I doubt they will, but it's worth noting.

[shraeye]

Well i'm not going to hammer frisk, when there still is the top part of my ok with lynching chain that I muh rather want to deal with.  This chain is now

joth>SFS>eevee>archetype>Robz>frisk>ashersky>insomniac>shraeye

[jotheonah]

I say "scum could quickhammer"

shraeye replies "I'm not going to hammer Frisk"

really bad scumslip?

[shraeye]

We have 2 people at L-2. Scum could quickhammer either of us at this point. I doubt they will, but it's worth noting.

I doubt they can.  I'm going to look long and hard at the list and *gasp* start thinking about scumteams on day 1.  Robz already guessed an obvious combination which would leave scum "unable to quickhammer" right now.

[Insomniac]

Well i'm not going to hammer frisk, when there still is the top part of my ok with lynching chain that I muh rather want to deal with.  This chain is now

joth>SFS>eevee>archetype>Robz>frisk>ashersky>insomniac>shraeye

You realized your pm is more concrete than how you feel about me?

[shraeye]

I say "scum could quickhammer"

shraeye replies "I'm not going to hammer Frisk"

really bad scumslip?

Nah, just really bad timing.  This was in response to your hesitance to put frisk at L-1.  I never read "warning more posts" before reclicking the post key.

[jotheonah]

I'm feeling better and better about this shraeye vote nonetheless. Ins is reminding me you've already had one weird slip today. This makes two.

[shraeye]

You realized your pm is more concrete than how you feel about me?

Hhahaha! actually my mind must have been drifting as I posted it, because the bottom still is asher>shraeye>insomniac.  As I was typing, I recall putting the last >/< sign backwards and said, oh that looks silly.  But I didn't realize that it was the names I flipped.

[shraeye]

I'm feeling better and better about this shraeye vote nonetheless. Ins is reminding me you've already had one weird slip today. This makes two.

That wasn't a weird slip, because it wasn't a slip.  Insom is the lynch I am most not ok with, I meant that.

[jotheonah]

I'm feeling better and better about this shraeye vote nonetheless. Ins is reminding me you've already had one weird slip today. This makes two.

That wasn't a weird slip, because it wasn't a slip.  Insom is the lynch I am most not ok with, I meant that.

Thank you for that clarification. Unvote.

[shraeye]

We have 2 people at L-2. Scum could quickhammer either of us at this point. I doubt they will, but it's worth noting.

I doubt they can.  I'm going to look long and hard at the list and *gasp* start thinking about scumteams on day 1.  Robz already guessed an obvious combination which would leave scum "unable to quickhammer" right now.

And I'm not going to tunnel.  There is a small enough set of possibilities for pairs of 2 players, that I'm literally going to check all possibilities.

[shraeye]

hmm, this seems less informative than it did when i set out.  basically there's a lot of symmetry mathematically.  Joth has 3 on wagon and is voting for one wagon member; frisk has 3 on and is voting for one of them.

Due to this, everybody (except eevee who could hammer with any partner) has 4 scumteam possibilities that could hammer (this includes possibilities where one scumpartner is voting for the other even though they're at 3), and 4 that can't (barring voting for themselves).  So there's not much to be gained.  I admit that this was a bit too early for me to march off to find scumteams.

For completeness (since i saidthey'd be coming) here are the results.
these teams can hammer: arch/ash, arch/eevee, arch/frisk, arch/robz, ash/eevee, ash/frisk, ash/robz, eev/frisk, eev/insom, eev/jo, eev/robz, eev/shray, eev/sfs, frisk/robz, insom/jo, insom/shray, insom/sfs, jo/shray, jo/sfs, shray/sfs
These teams can't hammer: arch/insom, arch/jo, arch/shray, arch/sfs, ash/insom, ash/jo, ash/shray, ash/sfs, frisk/insom, frisk/jo, frisk/shray, frisk/sfs, insom/robz, jo/robz, robz/shray, robz/sfs
This research shows no objective results unless we are willing to submit our own biases.  I didn't want to add my biases to this post (obviously, as I'm leaving even myself in for completeness) because there are people who I wouldn't be surprised if I couldn't convince to believe me.  I had hoped that this would get more unbiased results.