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[ashersky]

I'll start.

I think pacovf should be blocked.

[pacovf]

If mafia knows who we are blocking tonight, they can choose to no-kill, though.

I think one of {pacovf, EgorK} should be blocked and the other coped, but there is no way to organize that without scum knowing who is getting roleblocked.

[pacovf]

XP and Robz would be my secondary choices for cop and block respectively.

[faust]

Vote Count 4.2

No Lynch (3): XerxesPraelor, ashersky, pacovf

Not Voting (5): Witherweaver, Teproc, EgorK, Robz888, Ichimaru Gin

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 4 ends October 10 at noon.

[ashersky]

If mafia knows who we are blocking tonight, they can choose to no-kill, though.

I think one of {pacovf, EgorK} should be blocked and the other coped, but there is no way to organize that without scum knowing who is getting roleblocked.

The blocker should decide independently.  I just want to see everyone put some names down.

[XerxesPraelor]

WW, I said something in the QT.

We don't need to worry about no kills because we have a "cop".

[Witherweaver]

I think Block and Cop should both be out of {EgorK, Pac}.

[pacovf]

Let's say we choose to stop lynching for a while. Every night, Ash cops someone, the Targs roleblock someone other than Ash, and the Starks doctor Ash. The Targs reveal their target in their QT 24 hours after night starts, and they keep roleblocking the same person unless a night kill occurs, in which case they say who they blocked in the common thread.

Even assuming that there are two scum left and that somehow we never block scum, that gives us three cop results before there's only 5 of us left. If we are willing to take the risk of Teproc and WW both being town (which seems reasonable to me), that's exactly EgorK, XP and me. Then there are two options:

-Ash found scum. We lynch scum, then we lynch Ash if he wasn't scum.
-Ash didn't find scum. We lynch Ash, and if he is indeed a cop, we know we are looking for a godfather and/or a traitor.

Worst case scenario is, there's both a traitor and a godfather and we don't roleblock the godfather before we get to LYLO, without us knowing that we actually are in LYLO.
But if we do roleblock scum (which seems more likely), we will have more people alive by the time Ash has investigated the relevant people, and we pretty much have one scum caught already.

Thoughts?

[Robz888]

Hi all just speed read the latest stuff to get caught up, I feel like I have a good understanding of what's going on now. I'm still vla until Monday night at the very earliest, though. If you guts could wait to actually do anything definitive until then, it's probably good.

For the record, I am absolutely sure WW and xp are town. The Teproc result makes him seem town. Ash's volt copping I really really don't like and he reads super scummy to me today... But I'm not absolutely convinced. Tentatively I would give ash a deal: we will lynch whoever you say, and if you're wrong, you're next.

However, I may like the no lynch plan better. Scum is just absolutely going to shoot WW, xp, me, or Teproc? So kills are not going to reduce our lynch pool. Ash WILL get another investigation, though, and that's good. Then we can act on that result, if we still haven't hit scum, ash goes down next lynch.

Okay, that's all for now!

[Witherweaver]

But why not just lynch EgorK today and no lynch tomorrow.

[Witherweaver]

(If game not over.)

[pacovf]

But why not just lynch EgorK today and no lynch tomorrow.

No lynch today and EgorK tomorrow is better because we have Ash's result and an extra pseudo-roleblock-result to decide whether we actually want to lynch EgorK or not.

[Witherweaver]

But why not just lynch EgorK today and no lynch tomorrow.

No lynch today and EgorK tomorrow is better because we have Ash's result and an extra pseudo-roleblock-result to decide whether we actually want to lynch EgorK or not.

But we can use the cop and roleblock on other targets.

[pacovf]

I am not discussing how we should use our powers, I am saying that if we want to do a lynch and a no-lynch, I would rather do the lynch second, when we will have more information.

[Witherweaver]

I am not discussing how we should use our powers, I am saying that if we want to do a lynch and a no-lynch, I would rather do the lynch second, when we will have more information.

But lynch gives more information for the night actions.

[ashersky]

From a neutral point of view, town should milk the cop for as many results as possible before lynching him, in all cases.  This is especially true when it is likely that there is only one scum remaining.  It's harder if there are multiple scum remaining.

Lynch, no lynch, doesn't really matter.  No lynch is the "safe" play, lynch is the "fast" play.

I had this thought last night, as well: all of you haters claiming my volt investigation was a bad call are coming at the "ashersky has claimed cop" as a top-level scum conspiracy theory, assuming I'm lying because I can.  You know that scientifically that's the least likely scenario and that it's much more likely I'm just telling the truth, given how all results I've had are confirmed independently by a now confirmed town tracker.  However, you can't let go of your crazy conspiracy theories.  My decision to cop volt was based on the same style of play -- I chose to clear the scary conspiracy instead of just plodding along the safe route.  Voltaire was manifestly scummy yesterday (although not the days before), he had zero suspicion from anyone, and he hadn't even sniffed death.  All that adds up to scum!voltaire playing town like a fiddle.  I had clear him or catch him.  If he was alive today, he was scum.

The only remaining scary conspiracy is that Robz is a godfather.  Not much to be done about that.  So let's clear anyone else we can before you decide to mislynch me.

[pacovf]

Whether you are doing it willingly or not I can't say, but you are once again leaving aside any information that inconveniences you, and presenting an intrepretation of events that doesn't necessarily follow from the rest.

[pacovf]

But as you point out yourself, nolynch is the safe choice, so that's the one I prefer.

[XerxesPraelor]

The fact that you targeted who you said you did doesn't mean a cop.

[Witherweaver]

From a neutral point of view, town should milk the cop for as many results as possible before lynching him, in all cases.  This is especially true when it is likely that there is only one scum remaining.  It's harder if there are multiple scum remaining.

Lynch, no lynch, doesn't really matter.  No lynch is the "safe" play, lynch is the "fast" play.

I had this thought last night, as well: all of you haters claiming my volt investigation was a bad call are coming at the "ashersky has claimed cop" as a top-level scum conspiracy theory, assuming I'm lying because I can.  You know that scientifically that's the least likely scenario and that it's much more likely I'm just telling the truth, given how all results I've had are confirmed independently by a now confirmed town tracker.  However, you can't let go of your crazy conspiracy theories.  My decision to cop volt was based on the same style of play -- I chose to clear the scary conspiracy instead of just plodding along the safe route.  Voltaire was manifestly scummy yesterday (although not the days before), he had zero suspicion from anyone, and he hadn't even sniffed death.  All that adds up to scum!voltaire playing town like a fiddle.  I had clear him or catch him.  If he was alive today, he was scum.

The only remaining scary conspiracy is that Robz is a godfather.  Not much to be done about that.  So let's clear anyone else we can before you decide to mislynch me.

What you say about Volt makes sense on everything except the fact that he knew your targets *before you claimed them*.  What is the scum!Voltaire explanation for that?

[Ichimaru Gin]

I stand with those who want a no lynch today.
vote: no lynch
Also, had a lot going on lately, so been low activity in general.

[pacovf]

No-lynch at L-1.


Hum, if anyone else wants a no-lynch please state intent to hammer beforehand, ok?

[ashersky]

From a neutral point of view, town should milk the cop for as many results as possible before lynching him, in all cases.  This is especially true when it is likely that there is only one scum remaining.  It's harder if there are multiple scum remaining.

Lynch, no lynch, doesn't really matter.  No lynch is the "safe" play, lynch is the "fast" play.

I had this thought last night, as well: all of you haters claiming my volt investigation was a bad call are coming at the "ashersky has claimed cop" as a top-level scum conspiracy theory, assuming I'm lying because I can.  You know that scientifically that's the least likely scenario and that it's much more likely I'm just telling the truth, given how all results I've had are confirmed independently by a now confirmed town tracker.  However, you can't let go of your crazy conspiracy theories.  My decision to cop volt was based on the same style of play -- I chose to clear the scary conspiracy instead of just plodding along the safe route.  Voltaire was manifestly scummy yesterday (although not the days before), he had zero suspicion from anyone, and he hadn't even sniffed death.  All that adds up to scum!voltaire playing town like a fiddle.  I had clear him or catch him.  If he was alive today, he was scum.

The only remaining scary conspiracy is that Robz is a godfather.  Not much to be done about that.  So let's clear anyone else we can before you decide to mislynch me.

What you say about Volt makes sense on everything except the fact that he knew your targets *before you claimed them*.  What is the scum!Voltaire explanation for that?

Scum Tracker works.  We've had Scum Doctor in previous games.  I'm not saying it was the most likely target to return mafia.  It was second least likely, in fact.  But I had to clear him, for all our sakes.  If he were alive today, this would be a different conversation.

Dude tracked me twice, which was a huge waste of his power EXCEPT to confirm me, and yet no complaints there.  So be glad he confirmed me instead of disbelieving me.  He could have attempted to track the killer instead.

[pacovf]

Ok, let's go over this.

There was a ninja in the setup, and you are a much more likely to be targeted by a Tracker than silver was, so if you were scum, you obviously wouldn't have used your factional kill during N1.  So him tracking you N1 was of very limited use to check your alignment. Were there better targets for tracking N2? Maybe yes, maybe not. But him tracking you again wasn't useless, far from it.


Now, by the end of D3, we knew Voltaire was a tracker, because he had correctly predicted your two targets (or else both you and him were scum). So then you decide that it was better to cop Voltaire, the strongly pro-town player who had a confirmed town PR, rather than basically anybody else? That is useless.


One last point, Voltaire could be town and alive today for the same reasons you are: because there was another good target, and because there's a doctor in the setup. Why do you think we should have been wary of him had he lived, but accuse us heavily when we suspect you?

[ashersky]

Show me where Voltaire was confirmed town please.