@ Neighbor Claim:
1 Neighbor - They should prob claim, we get an IC, and skum is forced to kill them off instead of PR hunting... i think that is a good play.
4 Neighbors - I doubt if there were 4 we would still be having this convo, they obviously would know a skum is in the hood, and because of that skum knows who is in the hood, so all it does is give town POV plus and then of course when we find that skum the other members are IC.
2-3 Neighbors - This is tricky. Either option gives the possibilities of [all town, town and skum] with the additional possibility of [town and survivor, or town skum survivor]. If skum is in the hood, then they have all the info... so a claim tells them nothing but helps town. If skum is not in the hood then they don’t have the info and it just helps them iso their kill selection at night.
All of that is fairly easily calculated - the important part is this:
If there are 2-3 members in the hood, and they claim, we have no idea if they are all town, or if not, which one is skum. I just don’t know if the risk/reward is there for the claim.
Like, let’s say there are 3. They claim. What do we do? Leave them alone or start lynching them? If skum is in there then it could be a good idea, but if skum is not on there, they just learned 3 people that don’t have PRs. If we decide to start lynching them we could just be throwing the game right there if they are all town.
TLDR; it all comes down to how likely we think it is that skum picked to be in the pool. When skum was choosing roles they MUST OF considered that choosing to be in the hood would put them in a potential situation where they are being hunted for based on a claim (or if there were 4 in hood)... makes me feel like it is far fetched to say “they for sure picked it”.
If there was 1 or 4 we would either already know, or we will know soon i assume.
If there are 2-3, for reasons best not discussed at this time, i do not think they should claim today.