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Author Topic: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Game Over, Scum and Treasure Hunter win!)  (Read 197432 times)

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skip wooznum

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1925 on: May 21, 2020, 06:55:59 pm »

Maybe scum is worried about my investigative powers? I admit it's odd, but I think there being a third sailor is also unlikely.

100% agree that this is the best part of the game!
how did scum know about your investigation powers?
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skip wooznum

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1926 on: May 21, 2020, 07:00:38 pm »

@scola, how many baddies are alive, do you think?

I had thought 3. But I now think joth was just bluffing to make us think there were that many. (there's also a small part of me that wonders if that was trying to make us not suspect Joseph, but I'm not really sure I see a plausible way he's scum and not 3rd party like he says)

So then maybe just 2? faust and the scum!sailor?

So what do people think about who was able to steal? i.e. I don't think joth could N1, since he flipped goon.

A newbie question: what does Loud mean? I read up and thought it said you knew who performed an action on you. But if that were it, then Joseph or eevee would know who tied them up. So it can't be that. Does it just mean that they know they got tied up.
So if there's only two living scum, what exactly did you do yesterday that was so towny?

As to the loud business, I'm probably just using it wrong. I meant, like you say, they know they got tied up with a rope. I'm not sure if there's another term for it that's more precise, though.
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scolapasta

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1927 on: May 21, 2020, 07:19:35 pm »

@scola, how many baddies are alive, do you think?

I had thought 3. But I now think joth was just bluffing to make us think there were that many. (there's also a small part of me that wonders if that was trying to make us not suspect Joseph, but I'm not really sure I see a plausible way he's scum and not 3rd party like he says)

So then maybe just 2? faust and the scum!sailor?

So what do people think about who was able to steal? i.e. I don't think joth could N1, since he flipped goon.

A newbie question: what does Loud mean? I read up and thought it said you knew who performed an action on you. But if that were it, then Joseph or eevee would know who tied them up. So it can't be that. Does it just mean that they know they got tied up.
So if there's only two living scum, what exactly did you do yesterday that was so towny?

As to the loud business, I'm probably just using it wrong. I meant, like you say, they know they got tied up with a rope. I'm not sure if there's another term for it that's more precise, though.

Honestly, I can't answer how what I did would seem towny to you and other. If I were scum, I would obviously be trying to appear towny. And I also would if I were town. So you decide.

I just don't think that if I were scum my play yesterday would have been the right move.

I was in the middle of making a case for why eevee was lying*, then joth confessed and I hammered. Rather than even try to wait (no one had to know I was still awake) and see what happened with joth's plea to Joseph. You're right in that if there's only 2, his plea was a bluff. But I didn't (and still don't really) know if it's a bluff not. And I think scum would have allowed the chaos to survive a little longer.

* the case I was making is probably irrelevant because I had a fact wrong. from the setup I thought when you would only get your items the next day, not during the night (the setup is clear that you will be given to you at the start of the day). But I did get clarification that you actually have the item that night, you just can't use it. I don't think I would have tried to make this case (which I never got to even complete) if I knew it to be false.

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Eevee

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1928 on: May 21, 2020, 07:32:21 pm »

Maybe scum is worried about my investigative powers? I admit it's odd, but I think there being a third sailor is also unlikely.

100% agree that this is the best part of the game!
how did scum know about your investigation powers?
Ah, I didn't remember I only claimed today. They wouldn't know, my bad.
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scolapasta

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1929 on: May 21, 2020, 07:45:08 pm »

Maybe scum is worried about my investigative powers? I admit it's odd, but I think there being a third sailor is also unlikely.

100% agree that this is the best part of the game!
how did scum know about your investigation powers?
Ah, I didn't remember I only claimed today. They wouldn't know, my bad.

You mean yesterday (Day 4), no?
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Eevee

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1930 on: May 21, 2020, 08:16:00 pm »

Yeah, I was tied up night 2, and claimed day 4.
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skip wooznum

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1931 on: May 21, 2020, 09:29:54 pm »

Yeah, I was tied up night 2, and claimed day 4.
umm
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mail-mi

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1932 on: May 21, 2020, 09:35:35 pm »

I'm an apprentice treasure hunter. Seems it's a back up role for Joseph, I'm town until he dies and then inherit whatever powers and factions he currently is/has. I prefer playing for town.

For my night action, I can investigate who has pieces of the copper owl.

N1 investigated Galzria, didn't have any (and tried to give the rope I started with to mail-mi but was intercepted and the rope was stolen)
N2 investigated Joth, found out he had the torso and know has the wings
N3 investigated Joseph, but couldn't complete the action because I was tied up with the rope

Uh, Eevee, you were tied up night three.

Is someone messing up their fakeclaim?
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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1933 on: May 21, 2020, 09:54:16 pm »

vote: eevee
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faust

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1934 on: May 22, 2020, 02:40:50 am »

Oh fudge. Standby.
Does this mean faust does indeed have the notebook?
I do. It appears that joth was indeed telling the truth.

There's this. ^^^ for faust.

Also, in case we were doubting joseph, joth is seemingly confirming him as not scum, too.
Well he was. I could give you the things to confirm, but you'd have to give one away before that, so I think they need to go to someone else.

Or you could have said here that you thought it was pro town to not give away. Something doesn't add up.
I hadn't made up my mind at that point.
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faust

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1935 on: May 22, 2020, 02:45:22 am »

I'm an apprentice treasure hunter. Seems it's a back up role for Joseph, I'm town until he dies and then inherit whatever powers and factions he currently is/has. I prefer playing for town.

For my night action, I can investigate who has pieces of the copper owl.

N1 investigated Galzria, didn't have any (and tried to give the rope I started with to mail-mi but was intercepted and the rope was stolen)
N2 investigated Joth, found out he had the torso and know has the wings
N3 investigated Joseph, but couldn't complete the action because I was tied up with the rope

Uh, Eevee, you were tied up night three.

Is someone messing up their fakeclaim?
Can you explain how you think Eevee is lying?
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Eevee

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1936 on: May 22, 2020, 05:03:40 am »

Yes it was n3, no i’m not scum but dumb.

Interesting that it was mail mi who caught the mistake, although i guess he’d be cognizant of the usage of rope as a sailor regardless of his alignment.
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skip wooznum

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1937 on: May 22, 2020, 07:00:12 am »

There's still some stuff I'd like to write up, and I hope I'll have time and energy for all of it. For now, I guess we can start with the easy stuff.

The title of this post will be



Eevee, the Conf!town
An Exercise in Attempting to Townclear Eevee, for the Purpose of Having One Less Thing to Worry About

Essentially, the argument that Eevee is town boils down to three things.

1)He claimed to start with the rope, with nobody counterclaiming. I see no way that scum could start with the rope, because I'm town and need the rope, so how would I ever get it if scum starts with it.

(In the interest of completion, there is one scum narrative that I've dreamt up here. It's possible that Swowl started out with the rope, and on N1 the mafia killed him and stole from him (brutal, I know), and scum!eevee knew it was safe to claim rope, because Swowl, the ropist, was dead. This seems fairly unlikely, but probably worth noting)


2)My role pm makes literally no mention of the rope being loud. I never would have even considered the possibility that the rope was loud. I can only assume mail-mi's pm (or the pm of whoever is the scum sailor) looks the same. So when Eevee claims that he was roped up on N3, he is almost definitely telling the truth. If he wasn't actually roped up, what would induce him to think that the roping would be loud. And well, if he really was roped up, then he's almost definitely town.


3)Looking back at eevee's claim (post 1623 and the ensuing conversation), it's clear he isn't partners with joth. He makes his claim without realising that it incriminates joth, which is interesting but, I guess, could go either way. But what's really interesting is what happens after. Sudgy points out that joth is likely scum, and, almost immediately, (75 seconds) eevee comes back to agree with sudgy and place a vote. I put it to you that this is not partner behavior. A partner would take a minute, kick himself about his botched claim, and really think things through about whether this situation is salvageable, or does he really need to bus at this point. He would not jump right out like that and vote. There's nothing to be lost by not posting anything, and waiting and thinking before making that vote.


So, eevee is town.


The End
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faust

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1938 on: May 22, 2020, 07:13:09 am »

With regards to 1, it's a strong point; the only thing I will say is that with Traitor mechanics, it would be possible for scum to both start with the rope and need to rope.

2 again a good point, it is not impossible that having the Rope and being a Sailor lets you know about it being loud. Also, stealing is loud, maybe scum had already learned to expect actions to be loud.

3 is good. It could still be a Traitor thing, but even then traitor!Eevee still probably take some time for consideration.

So overall, I agree. I have been worrying a little because a lot of things around Eevee's claim seemed a bit off, but I agree that all things point to non-mafia. Of course it might still be that he has been aligned with Joseph from the start, but there's nothing to be done about that now.
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skip wooznum

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1939 on: May 22, 2020, 07:33:26 am »

So what do people think about who was able to steal? i.e. I don't think joth could N1, since he flipped goon.
The stealing is maybe the single thing in this game that I've contemplated the most. I think what makes it so confusing for me is that there is no clear place for my train of thought to begin. But I can try to organize my thoughts on this, as it's something I've wanted to do since the beginning of the day. Let's start with the facts.
1)Didds claims she was stolen from on N1. (Bullet)
2)Joth claims he was stolen from on N2. (Owl torso)
3)adk claims he was stolen from on N3, but he had nothing that could be stolen.
4)Joseph claims responsibility for points 1-3.
(These first four points are pretty simple and more less take care of themselves without further explanation. Now we get to the good stuff.)

5)eevee claims he was stolen from on N1. (Rope)
6)faust claims he was stolen from on N2. (Owl wings)
7)Joseph claims he was stolen from on N3. (Owl torso I think but can't find it now.)
8)Joth is found (by eevee) to have the owl wings N2.
9)Joth flips goon treasure hunter.
10)Joth only became treasure hunter after N1.
11)faust claims recruited treasure hunters do not recieve stealing abilities.
12)eevee claims being roped N3, nobody claims beyond roped N2. (This is relevant indirectly.)

Did I miss any facts?

Now that that's done, we cam start thinking up what ways we have of explaining everything.

(Hopefully) to be continued. 

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skip wooznum

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1940 on: May 22, 2020, 07:34:11 am »

I don't know why there's an emoji there but I like it
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skip wooznum

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1941 on: May 22, 2020, 07:38:17 am »

With regards to 1, it's a strong point; the only thing I will say is that with Traitor mechanics, it would be possible for scum to both start with the rope and need to rope.

2 again a good point, it is not impossible that having the Rope and being a Sailor lets you know about it being loud. Also, stealing is loud, maybe scum had already learned to expect actions to be loud.

3 is good. It could still be a Traitor thing, but even then traitor!Eevee still probably take some time for consideration.

So overall, I agree. I have been worrying a little because a lot of things around Eevee's claim seemed a bit off, but I agree that all things point to non-mafia. Of course it might still be that he has been aligned with Joseph from the start, but there's nothing to be done about that now.
Yes, it's too disturbing to contemplate traitor or 3rd party with Joseph, so I haven't.
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skip wooznum

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1942 on: May 22, 2020, 07:59:05 am »

@eevee (and adk and faust), can you read D4 and tell me what you think of Scola? I get a bunch of signals both ways, and want your opinion(s).
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skip wooznum

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1943 on: May 22, 2020, 11:22:04 am »

So what do people think about who was able to steal? i.e. I don't think joth could N1, since he flipped goon.
The stealing is maybe the single thing in this game that I've contemplated the most. I think what makes it so confusing for me is that there is no clear place for my train of thought to begin. But I can try to organize my thoughts on this, as it's something I've wanted to do since the beginning of the day. Let's start with the facts.
1)Didds claims she was stolen from on N1. (Bullet)
2)Joth claims he was stolen from on N2. (Owl torso)
3)adk claims he was stolen from on N3, but he had nothing that could be stolen.
4)Joseph claims responsibility for points 1-3.
(These first four points are pretty simple and more or less take care of themselves without further explanation. Now we get to the good stuff.)

5)eevee claims he was stolen from on N1. (Rope)
6)faust claims he was stolen from on N2. (Owl wings)
7)Joseph claims he was stolen from on N3. (Owl torso I think but can't find it now.)
8)Joth is found (by eevee) to have the owl wings N2.
9)Joth flips goon treasure hunter.
10)Joth only became treasure hunter after N1.
11)faust claims recruited treasure hunters do not recieve stealing abilities.
12)eevee claims being roped N3, nobody claims being roped N2. (This is relevant indirectly.)
13)joth gives mix the notebook N2.

Did I miss any facts?

Now that that's done, we can start thinking up what ways we have of explaining everything.

(Hopefully) to be continued.
Made some corrections in bold. Left the emoji as is. Added a fact

So in analyzing this stuff, I think the first things to consider are the two claims by faust (6 and 11). If faust is town, then he's telling the truth about those things. That would mean that joth stole from him N2, and despite being a treasure hunter, he had no special stealing privileges. It seems to me that the only explanation (tell me if you have another)  is some sort of factional stealing ability, similar to the factional nk. That fits pretty well, and also answers the question of, how could thief!joth have stolen the rope N1 and given it to the scum!sailor N2, if he was busy giving the notebook to mix on N2? The answer, of course, is somebody other than joth used the factional steal N1. So all that works out, I think. The next thing to consider would be, did joth lie to his mates about the owl? I was bothered earlier by the fact that joth chose to steal from faust N2 when he already knew that Joseph had an owl piece. It could be that scum has some type of itemcop or owlcop and knew faust had an owl piece. If scum were owl hunting, joth either lied, or there's some other use that mafia had for the owl. But the explanation might be simpler. Maybe Joth wasn't going for owl pieces at all. He couldn't justify owl hunting to his scum buddies. Faust was confirmed in thread to have an unidentified item of some sort, so the mafia targeted him, without specifically aiming for the owl. All of this looks pretty internally consistent, and a viable narrative to explain everything. (And the only viable narrative that has a town!faust.)

Next, we'll explore a scum!faust world.

Questions? Comments? Points you disagree with?
Let me know.   

(Hopefully) to be continued.
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skip wooznum

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1944 on: May 22, 2020, 11:24:05 am »

So what do people think about who was able to steal? i.e. I don't think joth could N1, since he flipped goon.
The stealing is maybe the single thing in this game that I've contemplated the most. I think what makes it so confusing for me is that there is no clear place for my train of thought to begin. But I can try to organize my thoughts on this, as it's something I've wanted to do since the beginning of the day. Let's start with the facts.
1)Didds claims she was stolen from on N1. (Bullet)
2)Joth claims he was stolen from on N2. (Owl torso)
3)adk claims he was stolen from on N3, but he had nothing that could be stolen.
4)Joseph claims responsibility for points 1-3.
(These first four points are pretty simple and more or less take care of themselves without further explanation. Now we get to the good stuff.)

5)eevee claims he was stolen from on N1. (Rope)
6)faust claims he was stolen from on N2. (Owl wings)
7)Joseph claims he was stolen from on N3. (Owl torso I think but can't find it now.)
8)Joth is found (by eevee) to have the owl wings N2.
9)Joth flips goon treasure hunter.
10)Joth only became treasure hunter after N1.
11)faust claims recruited treasure hunters do not recieve stealing abilities.
12)eevee claims being roped N3, nobody claims being roped N2. (This is relevant indirectly.)
13)joth gives mix the notebook N2.

Did I miss any facts?

Now that that's done, we can start thinking up what ways we have of explaining everything.

(Hopefully) to be continued.
Made some corrections in bold. Left the emoji as is. Added a fact

So in analyzing this stuff, I think the first things to consider are the two claims by faust (6 and 11). If faust is town, then he's telling the truth about those things. That would mean that joth stole from him N2, and despite being a treasure hunter, joth had no special stealing privileges. It seems to me that the only explanation (tell me if you have another)  is some sort of factional stealing ability, similar to the factional nk. That fits pretty well, and also answers the question of, how could thief!joth have stolen the rope N1 and given it to the scum!sailor N2, if he was busy giving the notebook to mix on N2? The answer, of course, is somebody other than joth used the factional steal N1. So all that works out, I think. The next thing to consider would be, did joth lie to his mates about the owl? I was bothered earlier by the fact that joth chose to steal from faust N2 when he already knew that Joseph had an owl piece. It could be that scum has some type of itemcop or owlcop and knew faust had an owl piece. If scum were owl hunting, joth either lied, or there's some other use that mafia had for the owl. But the explanation might be simpler. Maybe Joth wasn't going for owl pieces at all. He couldn't justify owl hunting to his scum buddies. Faust was confirmed in thread to have an unidentified item of some sort, so the mafia targeted him, without specifically aiming for the owl. All of this looks pretty internally consistent, and a viable narrative to explain everything. (And the only viable narrative that has a town!faust.)

Next, we'll explore a scum!faust world.

Questions? Comments? Points you disagree with?
Let me know.   

(Hopefully) to be continued.
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Eevee

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1945 on: May 22, 2020, 11:44:35 am »

@eevee (and adk and faust), can you read D4 and tell me what you think of Scola? I get a bunch of signals both ways, and want your opinion(s).
will do later tonight!
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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1946 on: May 22, 2020, 11:44:58 am »

P.S.
One problem with the town!faust narrative is that there were no thefts reported last night. If the steal power is factional, there is no reason for it to have stopped with joth's death.

It could be that scum has a choice to steal or graverob (much like Joseph) and last night chose to graverob. I'll have to think about how much I like that explanation.
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skip wooznum

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1947 on: May 22, 2020, 11:47:07 am »

@eevee (and adk and faust), can you read D4 and tell me what you think of Scola? I get a bunch of signals both ways, and want your opinion(s).
will do later tonight!
aight well I've got no access starting ~8 pm forum time and going till deadline. So the sooner the better. No pressure.
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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1948 on: May 22, 2020, 11:51:36 am »

@eevee (and adk and faust), can you read D4 and tell me what you think of Scola? I get a bunch of signals both ways, and want your opinion(s).
will do later tonight!
aight well I've got no access starting ~8 pm forum time and going till deadline. So the sooner the better. No pressure.
really hard for me too se anyone but mailmi as the lynch here. of couese you likely wont be here to help us figure it out tomorrow if that's correct (and town is pretty much done if it isnt)
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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1949 on: May 22, 2020, 11:52:44 am »

but i meant evening my time, coming within 4 hours!
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