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[faust]

Let's run some scenarios. These are from my perspective, mind you. I'm excluding one where Joseph is mafia, that doesn't seem to make sense given what we know.

- 3 scum left, Eevee telling the truth.
That puts the only remaining "true town" at me and whoever of skip/mail-mi is town. Maybe. There is some argument to be made that skip and mail-mi are both scum I guess. Anyways not much to be done in this setting, we can lynch scum but once we are at Joseph/Eevee/X (scum) remaining, Joseph has no reason to end the game in a loss for them.

- 3 scum left, Eevee is one of them
Situation is similar as before, agian we need to rely on Joseph but they won't end the game for us. It's notable that before that, Joseph has an incentive to lynch scum because that opens up graverobbing.

- 2 scum left, Eevee telling the truth
We cannot lynch Joseph because that leaves us in the same situation as the 3-scum scenario detailed above. Other than that, town does have a majority and can push through any 2 lynches for a potential win.

- 2 scum left, Eevee is one of them
This is the only scenario where lynching Joseph does not lose the game. But we can just lynch Eevee instead.

[faust]

I don't think we can realistically get the rope into town's hands at this point, Joseph is on a timer and will prioritize getting owl pieces.

There is something to be said about keeping the Sailors around to keep Joseph in check. But then they are our best shot of finding scum.

[skip wooznum]

How likely do you think it is that there are 3 scum alive?

[skip wooznum]

@eevee, at the time you claimed yesterday, did you realize your claim would incriminate joth? You didn't vote for him until sudgy and I pointed it out.

[faust]

How likely do you think it is that there are 3 scum alive?

Not super likely. Seems like town's powers, being contingent on item, are fairly weak, and there are up to 2 third-parties plus an option for additional players to follow an anti-town wincon.

It's not impossible, but we should probably act under the assumption that it's not the case.

[skip wooznum]

Wholeheartedly agreed

[skip wooznum]

Honestly what's bugging me is, if mail-mi was scum with the rope, why would he blow his cover and block eevee? The risk/reward just doesn't add up. People were more or less willing to swallow that him and me were t and t, as evidenced by the fact that we're both still alive. Using the rope to block eevee would confirm that one of us is scum. And who knows if eevee is even doing anything worth blocking? I feel like I'm missing something. 

[skip wooznum]

Maybe he didn't know the rope was loud?

Maybe there's a third rope dude hiding in the shadows...

[skip wooznum]

Other things are bugging me too.....

[skip wooznum]

Maybe he didn't know the rope was loud?

Maybe there's a third rope dude hiding in the shadows...

Or, maybe eevee made it up. That would take coordination with Joseph though...

[faust]

I suppose it's possible that Eevee/Joseph are already a faction. Their powers certainly complement each other well.

I don't see the point where this takes coordination with Joseph though.

[skip wooznum]

I suppose it's possible that Eevee/Joseph are already a faction. Their powers certainly complement each other well.

I don't see the point where this takes coordination with Joseph though.

he claimed getting roped the next night.

[skip wooznum]

But anyway it's probably that mail-mi didn't know it was loud. I didn't know it was loud either, so there's that.

[faust]

True, true. Well. I feel like it's a worthwile effort to check for interactions with joth. If there are actually three Sailors nd the scum one is unclaimed... then we have a big problem.

Who could that be? Only one of scola/ADK right? Even from an outside perspective, it is known that I have another role. maybe I'll also go look into their reactions to the whole rope situation.

[skip wooznum]

Assuming the most likely scenario, that eevee is good, Joseph is sk, and one of me/mail-mi is bad, who's the other bad guy?

Ppe

[faust]

But anyway it's probably that mail-mi didn't know it was loud. I didn't know it was loud either, so there's that.

Probably, but even if it wasn't loud, in a game where everyone usually has a night action available it would be reasonable to assume that people would find out they were blocked.

[skip wooznum]

True, true. Well. I feel like it's a worthwile effort to check for interactions with joth. If there are actually three Sailors nd the scum one is unclaimed... then we have a big problem.

Who could that be? Only one of scola/ADK right? Even from an outside perspective, it is known that I have another role. maybe I'll also go look into their reactions to the whole rope situation.

Joseph tried to steal from adk N3, but adk had nothing. So he can't have the rope unless Joseph lied.

[skip wooznum]

But anyway it's probably that mail-mi didn't know it was loud. I didn't know it was loud either, so there's that.

Probably, but even if it wasn't loud, in a game where everyone usually has a night action available it would be reasonable to assume that people would find out they were blocked.

Yeah

[Joseph2302]

Vote: No lynch
Best thing I can do right now, I need game to go as long as possible

[skip wooznum]

@mail-mi, what happened with that baseball cap of yours? Still got it?

[skip wooznum]

Vote: No lynch
Best thing I can do right now, I need game to go as long as possible

Scum is blocking you. They're probably doing that because they believe you're lying, that the game ends when you win, and everyone else loses. It doesn't matter whether or not you're actually lying. All that matters is you need to lynch whoever's blocking you if you want to win.

Hint: their name isn't No Lynch.

[skip wooznum]

Here's another thing that's bugging me (though maybe faust can't help me with this one). On D2, joth and Joseph each claim to have a piece of the statue (I think). At this point, joth has already decoded the notebook, so he's a treasure hunter, looking for more pieces. Joseph does the predictable, logical thing and steals joth's piece. But joth doesn't steal Joseph's piece. Instead, (according to faust and eevee,) he steals faust's piece. Did he know faust had a piece? He definitely knew Joseph had one. What's up with that? Did faust give joth the piece, and actually joth had no ability to steal? All ideas are welcome.

[faust]

Here's another thing that's bugging me (though maybe faust can't help me with this one). On D2, joth and Joseph each claim to have a piece of the statue (I think). At this point, joth has already decoded the notebook, so he's a treasure hunter, looking for more pieces. Joseph does the predictable, logical thing and steals joth's piece. But joth doesn't steal Joseph's piece. Instead, (according to faust and eevee,) he steals faust's piece. Did he know faust had a piece? He definitely knew Joseph had one. What's up with that? Did faust give joth the piece, and actually joth had no ability to steal? All ideas are welcome.

Does the timing work out in that it was already known that Joseph had a piece?

Anyways my assumption has been that scum has an item Cop. That doesn't seem all that unlikely in this setup. They copped me N1 and then stole.

[Joseph2302]

Vote: No lynch
Best thing I can do right now, I need game to go as long as possible

Scum is blocking you. They're probably doing that because they believe you're lying, that the game ends when you win, and everyone else loses. It doesn't matter whether or not you're actually lying. All that matters is you need to lynch whoever's blocking you if you want to win.

Hint: their name isn't No Lynch.

You're right I guess
Vote: faust
For trying to convince everyone that I'm an SK or trying to win alone
I wouldn't have been that dumb to come out so early unless my role didn't matter to other people

[faust]

Vote: No lynch
Best thing I can do right now, I need game to go as long as possible

Scum is blocking you. They're probably doing that because they believe you're lying, that the game ends when you win, and everyone else loses. It doesn't matter whether or not you're actually lying. All that matters is you need to lynch whoever's blocking you if you want to win.

Hint: their name isn't No Lynch.

You're right I guess
Vote: faust
For trying to convince everyone that I'm an SK or trying to win alone
I wouldn't have been that dumb to come out so early unless my role didn't matter to other people

Well you convinced me to give you my piece of the statue so clearly it wasn't that stupid.