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Author Topic: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Game Over, Scum and Treasure Hunter win!)  (Read 197415 times)

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Swowl

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #250 on: April 27, 2020, 01:39:57 am »

Ok, I've been sitting on some information and I should probably start divulging it.

The item I need has appeared in another player's list of 5.

The way I see it, there are 3 possibilities:
A)The player in question really needs a different item on their list, and totally by chance happened to put the item I need on their list.
B)The player needs the same item I need, and is town.
C)The player needs the same item I need, and is scum.

I have personal opinions on the relative likelihood of these possibilities, but I'd first like to hear from others, especially the people who have provided lists.

Interesting. But I don't think I could answer A without knowing what the item name is (which isn't me asking you to claim it)
To be honest, this is a pretty strange situation and I'm unsure where to go from here. Should I claim more? Should I wait for the other list posters to say more? The thing is, I want the person who posted my item to say more stuff before he's sure he's the one who posted my item. On the other hand it's probably bad for the other list posters to start saying things, because they're not really involved and should not be forced to claim anything further. So I'm more or less at a loss and have been for some time.

sigh you def should of waited for more claims first. but probably at least do not claim any more. my opinion at least.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #251 on: April 27, 2020, 01:43:49 am »

My list:

Driver's License
Inhaler
Wedding Ring
Sunscreen
Telescope

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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
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Joseph2302

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #252 on: April 27, 2020, 04:46:03 am »

Ok, I've been sitting on some information and I should probably start divulging it.

The item I need has appeared in another player's list of 5.

The way I see it, there are 3 possibilities:
A)The player in question really needs a different item on their list, and totally by chance happened to put the item I need on their list.
B)The player needs the same item I need, and is town.
C)The player needs the same item I need, and is scum.

I have personal opinions on the relative likelihood of these possibilities, but I'd first like to hear from others, especially the people who have provided lists.

Option D) The player has the item and included in their list to get this kind of reaction (I think that's possibly NAI)
Ok that hadn't occurred to me. Though it seems like a bad idea as either alignment.
Why? Because someone would probably say that they needed an item from someone else's list (which you have done), and so if they benefit from being helpful, they will probably pass it to you

Of course, it's possible that multiple people did this, in which case it may not work. Or the person with it doesn't want to be helpful
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Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

LaLight

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #253 on: April 27, 2020, 06:39:48 am »

What are people's thoughts on option B versus C (ignoring option A)?


i think the player is different alignment from you. this is pretty good idea, gameplay-wise (how to spell things with wise in the end?) to have 1 town and 1 scum to compete for one item
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Joseph2302

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #254 on: April 27, 2020, 07:23:24 am »

What are people's thoughts on option B versus C (ignoring option A)?


i think the player is different alignment from you. this is pretty good idea, gameplay-wise (how to spell things with wise in the end?) to have 1 town and 1 scum to compete for one item
I think D is most likely
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
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Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

faust

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #255 on: April 27, 2020, 07:57:41 am »

Let's do a Vote: skip
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #256 on: April 27, 2020, 08:15:28 am »

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Eevee

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #257 on: April 27, 2020, 08:18:38 am »

Ok, I've been sitting on some information and I should probably start divulging it.

The item I need has appeared in another player's list of 5.

The way I see it, there are 3 possibilities:
A)The player in question really needs a different item on their list, and totally by chance happened to put the item I need on their list.
B)The player needs the same item I need, and is town.
C)The player needs the same item I need, and is scum.

I have personal opinions on the relative likelihood of these possibilities, but I'd first like to hear from others, especially the people who have provided lists.
Seems likely multiple people might find use for the same item, why not?
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MiX

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #258 on: April 27, 2020, 08:24:17 am »

Let's do a Vote: skip

I presume you're the one that needs what skip needs?
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faust

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #261 on: April 27, 2020, 08:48:13 am »

Ok, I've been sitting on some information and I should probably start divulging it.

The item I need has appeared in another player's list of 5.

The way I see it, there are 3 possibilities:
A)The player in question really needs a different item on their list, and totally by chance happened to put the item I need on their list.
B)The player needs the same item I need, and is town.
C)The player needs the same item I need, and is scum.

I have personal opinions on the relative likelihood of these possibilities, but I'd first like to hear from others, especially the people who have provided lists.
Seems likely multiple people might find use for the same item, why not?
Well presumably if town's aim is to broadly to get their items, then scum's aim would be to stop that
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Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #262 on: April 27, 2020, 09:04:02 am »

Say an item corresponds to an action, surely could be that both factions would want to acquire the items themselves and block the other side from getting that (watcher, tracker, rolecop, cop, etc)*


*pure speculation, i dont know this to be the case from my pm
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Eevee

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #263 on: April 27, 2020, 09:05:49 am »

Also an item could be one thing in someone's hand, another in someone else's. I'd generally be in favor of sharing info once we know more about what it means. (I dont know about others, I dont know anything about the items and how vital they'd be or how careful we should be with them yet)
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Eevee

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #264 on: April 27, 2020, 09:06:41 am »

Like, I'm not sure one should even give an item they see someone asking for in the thread. This is a BM game.. maybe scum cant do anything without an item for example?

Town surely can lynch people even if we play it slow with the items in the start.
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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #265 on: April 27, 2020, 11:09:34 am »

Like, I'm not sure one should even give an item they see someone asking for in the thread. This is a BM game.. maybe scum cant do anything without an item for example?

Town surely can lynch people even if we play it slow with the items in the start.

Some people have to compulsively give items. Giving them some sort of direction should be helpful
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faust

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #266 on: April 27, 2020, 11:36:39 am »

Like, I'm not sure one should even give an item they see someone asking for in the thread. This is a BM game.. maybe scum cant do anything without an item for example?

Town surely can lynch people even if we play it slow with the items in the start.
Seems arbitrary to assume that scum can't do anything without items, but town can.
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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #267 on: April 27, 2020, 11:49:40 am »

I'm definitely not assuming that. Just generally easier for town to lose than to win the game early with open claiming of information generally in mafia.
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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (N0- Day 1 starts tomorrow at noon)
« Reply #268 on: April 27, 2020, 12:02:39 pm »

Ok, time for me to do some actual scumhunting. I'm going to analyze my own wagon because I know I'm town. It'll be less helpful for those of you who don't, but you can go back and read it after I flip if you all lynch me, which you shouldn't.

I need stuff! I have stuff! I dig the whole mixed up files of Mrs. Basil Frankweiler vibe!

Needing stuff AND having stuff seems OP. Probably SK. vote: Didds

Vote: joth I also need stuff and have stuff. Uh in fact this is a scumslip because town would never have said this.

MiX starts the wagon. His vote is super dumb and annoying but he's probably not scum because he never is when I want him to be. His vote gains no traction so he tries to push it again. At this point I've posted twice and nothing of substance, so MiX's level of certainty is  totally inappropriate, but not out of character for MiX.

I know I'm having a bit too much fun item finding, but joth is still scum. So...vote for him. He's not coming from town's perspective.

Then I defend myself, MiX doubles down. It's all still dumb. Second vote is a good old unexplained faust vote.

Vote: joth

This is either a towny starting a wagon for information or scum trying to add some steam to a promising town-originated mislynch. No way to know.

Then a vote from ADK and sheeps from Eevee and LaLight:

Vote: scolapasta

I think scola’s “huh what does scum have N0 chat?” post is a blatant grab for newbie town cred. I don’t buy that he didn’t know that, it’s like that in literally every game.

vote: joth this kind of argument absolutely comes more often from scum looking for a reason to discredit towncred

vote: joth
buying what ADK is selling

joth really IS scum

vote: joth

Typically, I find the third vote to be a prime scum spot -- it's often the vote that turns a handful of votes into a wagon. But at least the vote has some substance to it. I think ADK's reaction to my post smacks of confirmation bias, but it's not especially scummy. The sheep votes, though, feel like pure opportunistic scum. If there isn't at least one scum between Eevee and LaLight I'll eat my hat. (No, that's not an item breadcrumb, but what a great one it would be if it were).

Skip chimes in with a support for my wagon but no actual vote. Also very scummy, setting himself up to hammer and not look bad for it, but staying off the wagon so that he doesn't show up in wagon analyses later.

Also, down for ash's plan.

Also, down to lynch joth.

Also, down to give scola towncred.

This next vote by Joseph is a little too blatant to be scum I think, but I  could be wrong. I don't know Joseph that well, but from what I know I can see him being that bold, especially if he has a partner he thinks will step in with the quickhammer.

This is like a buy-one, get-four bargain sale! I love a sale, but I’m not down with lynching Joth until we are ready to let the night market swap-o-Rama begin.
Vote: joth
#wagons

If joth had less votes I would vote for him, but I don't really think he's scum.

What a weird thing to say.

IN SUMMATION:

MiX: Totally obnoxious but probably town, scum doesn't work that hard for a specific town lynch on day 1.
faust: Null
ADK: Lean town, his vote felt towny and made sense
Eevee: Lean scum, exactly where scum jumps on a wagon
LaLight: Lean scum, exactly where scum jumps on a wagon, but they're probably not both scum
Joseph: Can't decide. Joseph also jumped off my wagon pretty quickly, which is either scum getting cold feet or townie wagon-jumping. The whole pattern on Joseph seems too blatant to be scum play, but it could be a double-bluff. Ultimately leaning town here.

Next step for me will be rereading the rest of Eevee and LaLight's game to see if I can find additional evidence of scumminess.
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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #269 on: April 27, 2020, 12:04:00 pm »

Oh I forgot, I don't like skip much in that wagon re-read. His nonvote might actually be scummier than any of the votes.
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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #270 on: April 27, 2020, 12:04:35 pm »

That's a fine looking eevee, Eeevee!

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MiX

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #271 on: April 27, 2020, 12:21:51 pm »

Unvote

Vote: skip placeholder/sheeping
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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #272 on: April 27, 2020, 01:18:22 pm »

Ok, I've been sitting on some information and I should probably start divulging it.

The item I need has appeared in another player's list of 5.

The way I see it, there are 3 possibilities:
A)The player in question really needs a different item on their list, and totally by chance happened to put the item I need on their list.
B)The player needs the same item I need, and is town.
C)The player needs the same item I need, and is scum.

I have personal opinions on the relative likelihood of these possibilities, but I'd first like to hear from others, especially the people who have provided lists.

Option D) The player has the item and included in their list to get this kind of reaction (I think that's possibly NAI)

Option E) The player has the item and was confused as to what the plan was
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   Quote from: sudgy on June 31, 2011, 11:47:46 pm

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #273 on: April 27, 2020, 01:19:04 pm »

Also an item could be one thing in someone's hand, another in someone else's. I'd generally be in favor of sharing info once we know more about what it means. (I dont know about others, I dont know anything about the items and how vital they'd be or how careful we should be with them yet)

Town on Eevee for this, because scum would definitely know more about items than Eevee does here.
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   Quote from: sudgy on June 31, 2011, 11:47:46 pm

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Re: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (N0- Day 1 starts tomorrow at noon)
« Reply #274 on: April 27, 2020, 01:23:08 pm »

If joth had less votes I would vote for him, but I don't really think he's scum.

What a weird thing to say.

Early in the game, I generally vote to get the ball rolling, not to catch scum (my MiX vote is a bit more serious though, and that's why I'm still there).  I didn't really think anything you did was that scummy, but if you had less votes I would have voted for you to get you under more pressure.
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   Quote from: sudgy on June 31, 2011, 11:47:46 pm
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