Ok, time for me to do some actual scumhunting. I'm going to analyze my own wagon because I know I'm town. It'll be less helpful for those of you who don't, but you can go back and read it after I flip if you all lynch me, which you shouldn't.
I need stuff! I have stuff! I dig the whole mixed up files of Mrs. Basil Frankweiler vibe!
Needing stuff AND having stuff seems OP. Probably SK. vote: Didds
Vote: joth I also need stuff and have stuff. Uh in fact this is a scumslip because town would never have said this.
MiX starts the wagon. His vote is super dumb and annoying but he's probably not scum because he never is when I want him to be. His vote gains no traction so he tries to push it again. At this point I've posted twice and nothing of substance, so MiX's level of certainty is totally inappropriate, but not out of character for MiX.
I know I'm having a bit too much fun item finding, but joth is still scum. So...vote for him. He's not coming from town's perspective.
Then I defend myself, MiX doubles down. It's all still dumb. Second vote is a good old unexplained faust vote.
Vote: joth
This is either a towny starting a wagon for information or scum trying to add some steam to a promising town-originated mislynch. No way to know.
Then a vote from ADK and sheeps from Eevee and LaLight:
Vote: scolapasta
I think scola’s “huh what does scum have N0 chat?” post is a blatant grab for newbie town cred. I don’t buy that he didn’t know that, it’s like that in literally every game.
vote: joth this kind of argument absolutely comes more often from scum looking for a reason to discredit towncred
vote: joth
buying what ADK is selling
joth really IS scum
vote: joth
Typically, I find the third vote to be a prime scum spot -- it's often the vote that turns a handful of votes into a wagon. But at least the vote has some substance to it. I think ADK's reaction to my post smacks of confirmation bias, but it's not especially scummy. The sheep votes, though, feel like pure opportunistic scum. If there isn't at least one scum between Eevee and LaLight I'll eat my hat. (No, that's not an item breadcrumb, but what a great one it would be if it were).
Skip chimes in with a support for my wagon but no actual vote. Also very scummy, setting himself up to hammer and not look bad for it, but staying off the wagon so that he doesn't show up in wagon analyses later.
Also, down for ash's plan.
Also, down to lynch joth.
Also, down to give scola towncred.
This next vote by Joseph is a little too blatant to be scum I think, but I could be wrong. I don't know Joseph that well, but from what I know I can see him being that bold, especially if he has a partner he thinks will step in with the quickhammer.
This is like a buy-one, get-four bargain sale! I love a sale, but I’m not down with lynching Joth until we are ready to let the night market swap-o-Rama begin.
Vote: joth
#wagons
If joth had less votes I would vote for him, but I don't really think he's scum.
What a weird thing to say.
IN SUMMATION:
MiX: Totally obnoxious but probably town, scum doesn't work that hard for a specific town lynch on day 1.
faust: Null
ADK: Lean town, his vote felt towny and made sense
Eevee: Lean scum, exactly where scum jumps on a wagon
LaLight: Lean scum, exactly where scum jumps on a wagon, but they're probably not both scum
Joseph: Can't decide. Joseph also jumped off my wagon pretty quickly, which is either scum getting cold feet or townie wagon-jumping. The whole pattern on Joseph seems too blatant to be scum play, but it could be a double-bluff. Ultimately leaning town here.
Next step for me will be rereading the rest of Eevee and LaLight's game to see if I can find additional evidence of scumminess.