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[jotheonah]

I've been thinking about it and "everyone do a case on why they're town seems like something that comes from scum.

I mean, scum has spent the whole game intentionally thinking about how to make themselves look towny. Being asked to show their work is kind of a dream come true for them. Whereas town is likely to have a reaction more like the one EFHW just espoused. "Because... I am"

[WestCoastDidds]

I've been thinking about it and "everyone do a case on why they're town seems like something that comes from scum.

I mean, scum has spent the whole game intentionally thinking about how to make themselves look towny. Being asked to show their work is kind of a dream come true for them. Whereas town is likely to have a reaction more like the one EFHW just espoused. "Because... I am"

You seem to be ignoring the whole "we have completely sucked at scum hunting" context of my idea.  So far, every one of us has been spectacularly wrong about who scum are.  But you are correct, there could be a distinct lack of effort that renders the idea hollow as an avenue to towncore. So, do you have better ideas for turning over a new leaf? Some way we don't screw up again and just lose this month of our lives? I am seriously all ears.

I am sitting to read for an hour or so now (J is watching a soccer game...) and I am going to try to focus on pairs, but am open to whatever other ideas there are.

[WestCoastDidds]

Alright! I reread the game, although I often skimmed Mix's monster posts. Color coding helps me...

Vote Count 1.Final:

mathdude (7): Dylan32, faust, Ashersky, Joth, EFHW, MiX, MCMC
MiX (5): gkrieg, WestCoastDidds, mathdude, SpaceAnenome, Robz888
Not Voting (0):

Vote Count 2.Final:

gkrieg (5): faust, WestCoastDidds, Joth, EFHW, MiX
faust (1): SpaceAnenome
Not Voting (3): Dylan32, Ashersky, gkrieg

Vote Count 3.Final:

faust (4): Ashersky, Dylan32, SpaceAnenome, WestCoastDidds
Ashersky (2): Joth, faust
WCD (1): EFHW
Not Voting (0):

[WestCoastDidds]

I know that I am green, so I am leaving myself out of my evaluation.

Day one... since both of the wagons were town, I don't think scum cares where they were.  Joth, dylan, and EFHW are all on math. Space and I are on Mix.

Day two... Joth and EFHW are both on gkrieg. If Joth is scum, is it likely that traitorEFHW risks following him that closely? Probably not.

Day three... Dylan is early on faust, along with space and me. Joth is on Ash, EFHW is on me.  If either Joth or EFHW is scum with Dylan, there was no reason to join the faust wagon since the exile was going through regardless.

On my reread, I tried not to tunnel EFHW. The VCA supports Dylan/EFHW as much as Dylan/Joth. EFHW/Joth is not as likley, to me, because they are both on gkrieg and there wouldn't have been any reason to do that.

So, right now Dylan is my common denominator.

And then I tried to think about the Ash kill.  Joth has been fixated on Ash D3 and D4. Having Ash as the NK took all of the wind out of his sails. I don't think scum Joth gets quite so fixated, and if he does, he doesn't nightkill him knowing he can be keep flying that flag without looking scummy. EFHW is one of the most savvy players out there. She definitely has the ability to suggest or go along with leaving Space alive to create some doubt in everyone's most towny read. Further, in addition to me, she has collected votes from MiX, Robz (D1), gkreig (D2), and was on Asher's short list on D4 (we no exiled). So, town has found her vote-worthy. That neither Dylan nor Joth vote for her suggests to me that she is likely the traitor.

So, I have landed at most likely pair:
Dylan/EFHW

Second most likely:
Dylan/Joth

Dylan's posts are super towny, but his votes are not. Further, he posts are long and have lots going on but don't actually end up exerting any influence.
 

[EFHW]

How do you conclude that I'm the traitor based on joth and Dylan not voting for me? Wouldn't it be more likely that one of them was the traitor?

Your thoughts on the ashersky nk are interesting, though there is WIFOM, of course.

Town!joth and I didn't/wouldn't have voted faust because we both saw him as obv!town. The other three of you are all that wagon, and I believe two of you are scum.

Your observation on Dylan's votes is a stronger version of something I was also thinking.

[EFHW]

So what game plan for scum today? Bus while looking out for quickhammer chances?

[EFHW]

Didds, where is your case that you are town?

[Dylan32]

I know that I am green, so I am leaving myself out of my evaluation.

Day one... since both of the wagons were town, I don't think scum cares where they were.  Joth, dylan, and EFHW are all on math. Space and I are on Mix.

Day two... Joth and EFHW are both on gkrieg. If Joth is scum, is it likely that traitorEFHW risks following him that closely? Probably not.

Day three... Dylan is early on faust, along with space and me. Joth is on Ash, EFHW is on me.  If either Joth or EFHW is scum with Dylan, there was no reason to join the faust wagon since the exile was going through regardless.

On my reread, I tried not to tunnel EFHW. The VCA supports Dylan/EFHW as much as Dylan/Joth. EFHW/Joth is not as likley, to me, because they are both on gkrieg and there wouldn't have been any reason to do that.

So, right now Dylan is my common denominator.

And then I tried to think about the Ash kill.  Joth has been fixated on Ash D3 and D4. Having Ash as the NK took all of the wind out of his sails. I don't think scum Joth gets quite so fixated, and if he does, he doesn't nightkill him knowing he can be keep flying that flag without looking scummy. EFHW is one of the most savvy players out there. She definitely has the ability to suggest or go along with leaving Space alive to create some doubt in everyone's most towny read. Further, in addition to me, she has collected votes from MiX, Robz (D1), gkreig (D2), and was on Asher's short list on D4 (we no exiled). So, town has found her vote-worthy. That neither Dylan nor Joth vote for her suggests to me that she is likely the traitor.

So, I have landed at most likely pair:
Dylan/EFHW

Second most likely:
Dylan/Joth

Dylan's posts are super towny, but his votes are not. Further, he posts are long and have lots going on but don't actually end up exerting any influence.

Yeah, there are a lot of holes in this.

Day 1... I just don't think this is exactly true. Sure scum might not care which wagon ultimately goes through, but scum should always care about where they are. I mean look at how the next couple days went: we spent a pretty big amount of time fighting arguments about scum being off the wagon D1. D1 scum wouldn't have known that MiX was what he was and that he would essentially IC himself, so I could imagine a case for thinking being on his wagon as opposed to mathdude's would have been a way better position down the road.

Day 2... The assumption that the traitor was trying to follow or signal to their partner seems dubious. To me, a big part of why I don't think joth is scum was because I don't think mcmc buses like that D1. The thing I realized earlier today where I said I needed to rethink things is that this logic holds for scum!mcmc and known partner!joth, but it wouldn't hold at all if joth was actually an unrecruited traitor. Mcmc wouldn't have known that was a bus. So scum!EFHW and traitor!joth is still on the table.

Day 3... This logic here is maybe fine, except you can just as easily swap you and I in this argument from everyone else's perspective. The interesting thing is that if you are actually town, joth and EFHW had to be thrilled to not be on that wagon, especially with the air of inevitability that seemed to surround it that day.

I don't know how you are drawing conclusions on VCA when this is the breakdown of the exile wagons--
EFHW: on math and gkrieg, off faust. (2 on 1 off)
joth: on mathdude and gkrieg, off faust. (2 on 1 off)
me: on math and faust, off gkrieg. (2 on 1 off)
Didds: on gkrieg and faust, off mathdude. (2 on 1 off)
Space (for kicks and giggles) on faust, off mathdude and gkrieg. (1 on 2 off)

If you are going to try to draw anything useful from this, you would need to look at the pairings of who was on wagons together. The issue there is that it is divided up really evenly. The only two combos that have anything other than 1 shared wagon is EFHW-joth, who were both on mathdude and gkrieg, and joth-Space, who never ended on the same wagon.

EFHW/Joth is not as likley, to me, because they are both on gkrieg and there wouldn't have been any reason to do that.

Why not? That day was weird where there was so little momentum towards any exile that it's completely reasonable to think they would both be on wagon there to make sure something went through.

And then I tried to think about the Ash kill.  Joth has been fixated on Ash D3 and D4. Having Ash as the NK took all of the wind out of his sails. I don't think scum Joth gets quite so fixated, and if he does, he doesn't nightkill him knowing he can be keep flying that flag without looking scummy. EFHW is one of the most savvy players out there. She definitely has the ability to suggest or go along with leaving Space alive to create some doubt in everyone's most towny read

This is actually a good point for town!joth, except like you say, WIFOM. Joth is good enough and has been around long enough to know that he could make this exact point as part of his defense after that kill.  I'll come back to joth later though.

Further, in addition to me, she [EFHW] has collected votes from MiX, Robz (D1), gkreig (D2), and was on Asher's short list on D4 (we no exiled). So, town has found her vote-worthy. That neither Dylan nor Joth vote for her suggests to me that she is likely the traitor.

How does that follow? EFHW was the traitor and wasn't recruited, how would either of us know not to vote there? At this point, either traitor was recruited to start the game and scum no-killed the other night, or scum shot and recruited the traitor the night of no kill. Personally, I think recruited late is more likely than no-killing there, but I don't know. If that's the case, this point means nothing.  If the traitor was recruited N0 (thus becoming part of the scum team and not a traitor), then it literally can't suggest EFHW is the traitor since there wasn't really one.

Didds, I know it doesn't sound like it, but I'm really trying not to tunnel you, everything today has just seemed off, whether in terms of cases or mindset or whatever.

Dylan's posts are super towny, but his votes are not. Further, he posts are long and have lots going on but don't actually end up exerting any influence.

You and I have nearly identical voting patterns in terms of both number of exiles on/off AND in terms of "partner" we could have been on wagon with, and this makes:

--snip--

Your observation on Dylan's votes is a stronger version of something I was also thinking.

feel extremely opportunistic and scummy.

[Dylan32]

So what game plan for scum today? Bus while looking out for quickhammer chances?

Why assume busing today?

[EFHW]

So what game plan for scum today? Bus while looking out for quickhammer chances?

Why assume busing today?

If one scum gets caught, they want to be distanced from the other one.

[WestCoastDidds]

Didds, where is your case that you are town?

I did the reread instead since there wasn’t any interest in trying to clear our own names

[WestCoastDidds]

@Dylan-

Thanks for the careful response

I don’t have time to reply in earnest right now. At various points you say that these are not well thought out conclusions...I agree 100%. I sat down to reread, I read and wrote at the same time, and then I posted. I wasn’t mulling over thoughts or taking more time I try to connect the dots. I think that town is willing to say what they are thinking whereas I think scum have to think about it really carefully.

I know that I am town. I think that Space is town. I only need to find scum out of three.

My best guess is that the traitor was recruited on the nokill night. It makes the most sense for me. That assumptionncolors the way I see some of the wagons. The OG doesn’t know who they are trying to avoid voting with, but the traitor is trying to get found.

I have reasons for my votes. You do not have those same reasons, so locating your votes as corresponding with mine isn’t persuasive to me, although it may be persuasive to others. (I’ll find my reasons post and quote it when I’m on a computer)

The biggest takeaway I had from my reread was seeing how twisted Joth got about Ash, and how long it lasted. It took him entirely out of the scumhunting game for two days. He seems authentically baffled that no one wants to EAL and convinced that Ash is scum. I think a scum team that includes Joth keeps ash alive and guns for him hard today. I’d probably have followed him on that, so it had a pretty good chance of success. 

So, that leaves you and EFHW. My best guess is that you are the OG and she is the traitor, but it doesn’t matter.

[WestCoastDidds]

How do you conclude that I'm the traitor based on joth and Dylan not voting for me? Wouldn't it be more likely that one of them was the traitor?

Your thoughts on the ashersky nk are interesting, though there is WIFOM, of course.

Town!joth and I didn't/wouldn't have voted faust because we both saw him as obv!town. The other three of you are all that wagon, and I believe two of you are scum.

Your observation on Dylan's votes is a stronger version of something I was also thinking.

I have only been a traitor once and it was a disaster. I am not sure how a traitor signals, but my thinking is vote following or voting for them to try to get their attention. So, I don’t really know what I’m talking about here, but if I am looking for a follow pattern, you follow the other unknowns more than any of the unknowns follow you.

Yeah, wifom is real, but that is also the argument that scum know they can make. When I was thinking about a Joth and what he would do, the time and effort he put into the Asher case was a foregone conclusion today is Ash was still alive. We know exactly what Joth would have been doing, but now he’s thrown into disarray. Does he do that to himself? Scum might have thought that ash was either a threat or that everyone had decided his hijinks were town. As far as a threat his scum list was EFHW and Joth, which a “I’m beginning to suspect Dylan” line thrown in.

[EFHW]

It still doesn't make sense that you use joth and Dylan never voting for me as evidence that I am the traitor.

[EFHW]

I know that I am green, so I am leaving myself out of my evaluation.

Dylan's posts are super towny, but his votes are not. Further, he posts are long and have lots going on but don't actually end up exerting any influence.

You and I have nearly identical voting patterns in terms of both number of exiles on/off AND in terms of "partner" we could have been on wagon with, and this makes:

--snip--

Your observation on Dylan's votes is a stronger version of something I was also thinking.

feel extremely opportunistic and scummy.

If I had cherry picked it out of the long post, maybe. But I had several reactions to Didd's post, some in agreement, some not. I did have a weaker version of that thought. So I said so.

[EFHW]

response is inside the quote

[WestCoastDidds]

Here are the reasons for my votes that I posted earlier:

Hi Dylan!

I forgot about the vaca. Sorry for prodding you.

I didn't and wouldn't have voted for mathdude on D1 because he is BRAND NEW to our forum and I am not about that kind of welcome.

I voted for gkrieg after faust encouraged me to look off wagon, and then I was mad at him for swaying me when the only scum read that I have had that I really believe in this whole freaking game is EFHW.  Because I was sore at him, I probably added more layers of truth-sensing to Space's case against him but Space has been my biggest townread this game. Joth is right...if they are scum they are fooling us all.

[WestCoastDidds]

It still doesn't make sense that you use joth and Dylan never voting for me as evidence that I am the traitor.

I see your following votes as traitor-y.

[WestCoastDidds]

It still doesn't make sense that you use joth and Dylan never voting for me as evidence that I am the traitor.

I see your following votes as traitor-y.

Sorry, sent before I was ready. The following votes seem traitor-y to me. The fact they didn't vote for you might mean that they were unaware that you were a scum buddy. To me, your voting pattern indicates an awareness of partnership that I don't see in Joth or Dylan's patterns.

Looking back, I see that you switched your vote from mathdude to Joth and then back on D1. So, you voted for one of those two, but I am not seeing that you voted for Dylan.  I don't have any conclusion to draw from that, I am just noting it.

[jotheonah]

Unfortunately I think we have to conclude that our traitor did not signal or did not signal well, else why would scum have wasted a nightkill to recruit them? I am operating under the assumption that recruiting was an accident.

[EFHW]

Here is the part of what you said that I am referring to:

... Further, in addition to me, she has collected votes from MiX, Robz (D1), gkreig (D2), and was on Asher's short list on D4 (we no exiled). So, town has found her vote-worthy. That neither Dylan nor Joth vote for her suggests to me that she is likely the traitor.

Now you are saying this, which is problematic in its own way:

It still doesn't make sense that you use joth and Dylan never voting for me as evidence that I am the traitor.

I see your following votes as traitor-y.

Sorry, sent before I was ready. The following votes seem traitor-y to me. The fact they didn't vote for you might mean that they were unaware that you were a scum buddy. To me, your voting pattern indicates an awareness of partnership that I don't see in Joth or Dylan's patterns.

Looking back, I see that you switched your vote from mathdude to Joth and then back on D1. So, you voted for one of those two, but I am not seeing that you voted for Dylan.  I don't have any conclusion to draw from that, I am just noting it.

Besides sounding like you think joth and Dylan are both my partners (I know you would never assert that, but that feels like the background you are writing with), now you are saying they would only have voted me if they knew I was also scum?

The "following" you are referring to is which votes exactly?

[WestCoastDidds]

Here is what I mean by "following"

Vote Count 1.7:

mathdude (7): Dylan32, faust, Ashersky, Joth, EFHW, MiX, MCMC
MiX (5): gkrieg, WestCoastDidds, mathdude, SpaceAnenome, Robz888
Not Voting (0):

With 12 alive, it took 7 to Exile.
Night 1 starts now and ends Saturday, February 27th at 3:12pm Forum Time.
Night actions are due in 36 hours.


THREAD LOCKED!

Vote Count 2.Final:

gkrieg (5): faust, WestCoastDidds, Joth, EFHW, MiX
faust (1): SpaceAnenome
Not Voting (3): Dylan32, Ashersky, gkrieg

With 9 alive, it took 5 to Exile.
Night 2 starts now and ends in 48 hours. That is Monday, March 8th at 6:30pm Forum Time.
Please submit any Night Actions within 36 hours.

Vote Count 3.Final:

faust (4): Ashersky, Dylan32, SpaceAnenome, WestCoastDidds
Ashersky (2): Joth, faust
WCD (1): EFHW
Not Voting (0):

With 7 alive, it took 4 to Exile.
Night 3 starts now and ends on Wednesday, March 17th at 5:50pm Forum Time. Please submit Night Actions within 36 hours.

Wagon analysis time.

If, as ash suggests, EFHW and I are scum together (i.e. both scum were off-wagon D3), then it must also be the case that all three scum were on-wagon day 1, something that previously people have seemed to think is highly unlikely.

-snipped-

If anyone has ideas for something more useful to do with wagon analysis, let me know.

So, one way that the traitor might try to signal the baddie is by playing follow the leader. 

EFHW follows Joths vote D1 and D2 (both off wagon D3)
Space follows WCD D1
Space follows Dylan D3
Joth follows Ash D1
Joth follows WCD D2
Dylan follows Ash D3
WCD follows Space D3

EFHW is the only person who followed someone more than once...

[WestCoastDidds]

Besides sounding like you think joth and Dylan are both my partners (I know you would never assert that, but that feels like the background you are writing with), now you are saying they would only have voted me if they knew I was also scum?

The "following" you are referring to is which votes exactly?

Not both, but that it could have been either.  I don't think they only would have voted for you if they knew you were scum, but the fact that neither of them did might be a clue that nether of them were signaling. Of course there are other ways to signal, but I was thinking about votes as signalling.

[Dylan32]

So what game plan for scum today? Bus while looking out for quickhammer chances?

Why assume busing today?

If one scum gets caught, they want to be distanced from the other one.

I mean, yeah, but why do that today?  It's ELo, and if one of us votes incorrectly, scum just wins if they see it and pull of the exile. So why take the risk of pushing your partner? I mean, I guess from your perspective, if you think it's Didds and I as the pair, then of course we are busing each other right now, so that would make sense that you'd think that, but you'd be wrong.

[SpaceAnemone]

I have a bit of catching-up to do. Here's a quote from Dylan in response to Didds:

You and I have nearly identical voting patterns in terms of both number of exiles on/off AND in terms of "partner" we could have been on wagon with, and this makes:

I have to disagree here. Didds made more active votes and comments during the game, and while it's not as many as EFHW or Joth, her preferences were clear at the time. Let's just sum up the five of us:

D1 Didds: voted EFHW a long time, then shifted to MiX.
D1 Dylan: mathdude. Only one vote placed.
D1 EFHW: Robz, Ash, Space, mathdude, Joth, mathdude.
D1 Joth: Didds, Dylan, gkrieg, MiX, Ash, unvote, Robz, mathdude.
D1 Space: mcmc, MiX

D2 Didds: EFHW, gkrieg
D2 Dylan: never votes
D2 EFHW: (mostly not voting, then) Ash, gkrieg
D2 Joth: Ash, joth
D2 Space: MiX, faust

D3 Didds: EFHW, faust
D3 Dylan: (mostly not voting, then) just faust
D3 EFHW: Dylan (very briefly) then Didds.
D3 Joth: only Ash
D3 Space: only faust

Dylan is definitely the outlier here in terms of usable interactions. On the one hand, it's a clever thing to do as scum if you know you're in a game where people are going to look back on wagons, but on the other hand, it makes him look like he could be scum with anyone because he's been so lurky. I feel right now that he's definitely the common denominator, but I also worry that Didds picked up on that from my posts in the previous game day about how Dylan-EFHW or Dylan-Didds felt like my top two picks, so if EFHW-Didds is the team, then pushing Dylan is definitely the way to win here.

And it is probable that this method of looking at things overcounts how likely Dylan is to be scum just because there's so little useful wagon interaction that you can't look at a particular vote history and say "oh, that seems a bit improbable if those two are scum together", which is basically how I think EFHW-Joth isn't a possibility.