Let me chime in with some numbers ...
Nothing wrong with your numbers, but it doesn't tell the whole story. Not that you're claiming it did, but ok
I don't know how important these things actually are. In the order I think they're significant:
1. When analyzing these kind of decisions we somehow always assume optimal play from both players. But in reality on a Chapel board I just pray I'm not too far behind on turn 5, and if I'm not I think I have a reasonable shot at the game.
2. The Village/Chapel opening leaves (probably) only 1 bad card for turn 5, while the Workshop/Chapel opening probably leaves 2.
3. Both openings might draw Chapel t3 and gain some stuff on t4. Your optimal choice in the Chapel/Workshop deck could depend on what you trashed on turn 3. I think in the Chapel/Village opening you just always want a Workshop.
Stef, how many Workshops are you going for with the Village opening?
It seems like it doesn't make sense to buy a Village first if you plan to buy Silver at any point in the game. But if the plan is to just Workshop into everything then it makes sense to me.
Probably exactly 1 Workshop. If my opponent completely ignores the Village pile I may take another, but in any realistic scenario I don't think I can support a 2nd.
I'm probably already playing with some Smithies, as they're much easier to gain than Laboratories, certainly a Remodel, and probably a Mine and a +buy card at some point.
Village first does not imply Silver later does not make sense. Village first is because trashing quickly is of the utmost importance in a game where you can easily gain cards midturn.
Silver later is because buying a card with money doesn't require an action, and you need Golds anyway if you ever want to win this game.