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[EFHW]

I feel pretty opportunistic myself. vote: Lalight. Let's see if anyone is inspired to post something.

[LaLight]

I am as sign says vla on weekends, now included. I also think there is a number of people we can prod by now.

[Joseph2302]

I feel pretty opportunistic myself. vote: Lalight. Let's see if anyone is inspired to post something.

Seems decent enough

[Uncleeurope]

Ehhh, this feels off to me.

Do we just not have interest in a Vote: Space right now?

Or even a Vote: EFHW?

[LaLight]

I do have interest in both. Let's vote: EFHW

[Galzria]

Sorry, freaking busy for a semi-serious game at the moment, will catch up tomorrow.

[Brightgalrs]

Sorry, freaking busy for a semi-serious game at the moment, will catch up tomorrow.

I was pretty sure your inactivity was an attempt to fake your death, so I didn't say anything.

[Galzria]

Sorry, freaking busy for a semi-serious game at the moment, will catch up tomorrow.

I was pretty sure your inactivity was an attempt to fake your death, so I didn't say anything.

Lol sadly not

[WestCoastDidds]

I’m not sure why I’m feeling so uninspired. Stretched too thin, maybe.

Vote: EFHW  is the more interesting of those choices right now

[SpaceAnemone]

I've been doing my usual wagon-gazing, which is not going great because this is a confusingly big game. On the plus side, I no longer have to pretend I don't know that LL is town in my analyses.. he and I were just Masons together over in M125, and that made things tricky!

The EoD1 wagon is kind of colouring up nicely, and we have two aliens spread out across the Joth wagon. On balance, that makes any other aliens less likely to be on the Joth wagon.
That means {WestCoastDidds, Eevee, EFHW, Uncleeurope, Raerae, Shraeye}.

Looking at the faust lynch wagon, the people not voting him are {Brightgalrs, Uncleeurope, WestCoastDidds, Shraeye, Joseph}
The overlap between this and the first Alien list gives {Uncleeurope, WestCoastDidds, Shraeye}. Maybe throw EFHW on there too, as she's on the first, and voted faust only quite late in the day.

This means that there may be a higher chance of {Uncleeurope, Didds, Shraeye, EFHW} being a hypothetical third alien.

Of these, EFHW seems to be attracting the most attention right now. Is it just the opportunistic voting thing? The only thing she's done that kind of pings my scumdar is when she chastised faust for removing her from the possible lynch pool of werewolf masons... I feel like scum are more likely to try to score points for telling people they're doing daypasses wrong than town are. Though given that faust was on the alien faction anyway, it probably just tells us she doesn't belong in the alien possibility pool.

Okay, well this post has now become a thinking-out-loud post about EFHW. For now, I'd rather we go after actual mafia or werewolves, since killing factions are a bigger danger. If someone is more likely to be an alien, they ought to be kind of less likely to be a danger!faction. Though maybe I was too quick to put EFHW into the maybe-alien bucket, so maybe it's still possible we'll find killing scum there.

[SpaceAnemone]

As for finding actual danger-faction-members, considering the EoD1 wagons again, if Glooble has partners, they're more likely to be in {mail-mi, Joseph2302, DatSwan, SpaceAnemone, Brightgalrs, Galzria, LaLight, pubby, Uncleeurope, Raerae, Shraeye}
It's annoying that that's a bigger list than the alien possibilities! I think it's safe to assume there are partners, given Bright's numbers back around #464.

Finding nth-party signletons by wagon analysis seems unlikely to happen except by fluke. I assume we have an actual mafia faction, but it may be small if we've seen this many town deaths and no mafias.

@Bright, would you be able to give an updated list from your simulation where you marginalise only over the games that contained at least two aliens and at least one WW (and were otherwise acceptable scenarios?). Sorry I didn't get a chance to put together my own simulator over the weekend.

[Joseph2302]

If it helps, I'm town

[SpaceAnemone]

I didn't get very far with the wagons as far as LL goes, but I'm well aware of how lurky he can be these days, having had a hard time finding things to legitimately "townread" him for in our last game.

I did notice that I don't really like Mail-mi's voting pattern, though.

D1: he spent most of the day voting for people who've now flipped town. In particular, at one point he was on a 5-person Joth wagon, where he, Bright and Galz were the only unflipped people involved, and the other two were our flipped Aliens. So I think it's likely he's not an Alien.

D2: he voted Bright for most of the day, before jumping over to the faust wagon for the lynch. That would be consistent with being a faction that wants the aliens gone, especially since he was a vocal supporter of the plan to lynch off claimed scum, without engaging witht he question of whether we definitely want to go after aliens over other factions that have regular NKs.

D3: he voted for me in 3rd place behind LL and Swan, so there's clearly a bit of omgus from me, but also he's clearly wrong. He switched to EFHW at #928.. She didn't have a wagon at all at that point, though it's grown to four people in 30 posts, which is pretty quick. So maybe he's in a scum faction who're afraid of EFHW for some reason and trying to make a push?

I think I like Vote: Mail-mi more than the current wagon options.

[shraeye]

Again, just because you wanted to know every intricacy of your role, doesn't mean everybody else wants that level of detail

"Just because you would X, doesn't mean everybody else would X". Are you going to repeat this line of thought in defense of everyone I find suspicious?

I will repeat it over and over until either A) you change how you approach other people's decisions to account for how likely OTHER PEOPLE would do action Z, or B) you confess that you aren't as interested in figuring out who's decisions truly are scummy as you are with having an acceptable reason to put suspicion on others.

I'm not sure what makes you think a scum would come forward saying they were vanilized with no prompting

There's no real risk at this point. We all know there was a Vanilla-izer. Claiming you were vanilla-ized and giving away nothing else isn't too damaging no matter what your alignment or role is.

When she claimed vanilla-ized, the followup question is always "what was your role?"  Don't separate the two parts.

Going to invoke WIFOM on this one. But the thing is she picked one of the pretty terrible roles.

It isn't terrible.  In fact, it can act somewhat as a 1-shot vig...which is the role you thought was ok enough to pick.  So, why is 1-shot vig worth picking while nymphomaniac isn't? ?? ?

[shraeye]

Someone with numbers, help me out: is LaLight or EFHW wagon more of a thing?

Someone with psychologies, help me out: which of the LaLight or EFHW wagon should be more of a thing?

[Uncleeurope]

LaLight very clearly wants anyone to die that isn’t him. EFHW seems overly... cautious...? For what I normally would associate with her.

Also, I think it is disingenuous to say that Nymph and 1-shot Vig are 1:1, nymph only acts like a 1-Shot Vig in the sense that it kills a player. This choice on who to kill is random, and hugely inconsistent

To say that Bright picking the vig should allow him to justify raerae is about as much of a stretch as I would expect from you..

[raerae]

LaLight very clearly wants anyone to die that isn’t him. EFHW seems overly... cautious...? For what I normally would associate with her.

Also, I think it is disingenuous to say that Nymph and 1-shot Vig are 1:1, nymph only acts like a 1-Shot Vig in the sense that it kills a player. This choice on who to kill is random, and hugely inconsistent

To say that Bright picking the vig should allow him to justify raerae is about as much of a stretch as I would expect from you..

Re:LL, how terribly shocking and unexpected.

Nope, my partner was very carefully thought out. It only would have been randomized had I not picked anyone N1.

[Uncleeurope]

LaLight very clearly wants anyone to die that isn’t him. EFHW seems overly... cautious...? For what I normally would associate with her.

Also, I think it is disingenuous to say that Nymph and 1-shot Vig are 1:1, nymph only acts like a 1-Shot Vig in the sense that it kills a player. This choice on who to kill is random, and hugely inconsistent

To say that Bright picking the vig should allow him to justify raerae is about as much of a stretch as I would expect from you..

Re:LL, how terribly shocking and unexpected.

Nope, my partner was very carefully thought out. It only would have been randomized had I not picked anyone N1.

Ah, my mistake, let me throw up a statement here where I make it clear that I will vote for any other player in this game regardless of other factors influencing game state. Obviously to have any other stance would be against the laws of logic.

When do you pick the player?

The nights before the game starts, or the night after the first lynch?

[raerae]

LaLight very clearly wants anyone to die that isn’t him. EFHW seems overly... cautious...? For what I normally would associate with her.

Also, I think it is disingenuous to say that Nymph and 1-shot Vig are 1:1, nymph only acts like a 1-Shot Vig in the sense that it kills a player. This choice on who to kill is random, and hugely inconsistent

To say that Bright picking the vig should allow him to justify raerae is about as much of a stretch as I would expect from you..

Re:LL, how terribly shocking and unexpected.

Nope, my partner was very carefully thought out. It only would have been randomized had I not picked anyone N1.

Ah, my mistake, let me throw up a statement here where I make it clear that I will vote for any other player in this game regardless of other factors influencing game state. Obviously to have any other stance would be against the laws of logic.

When do you pick the player?

The nights before the game starts, or the night after the first lynch?

Night one, not zero, after a full day of play.

[Uncleeurope]

Ah, then not nearly as random as I once thought.

Carry on.

[EFHW]

Someone with numbers, help me out: is LaLight or EFHW wagon more of a thing?

Someone with psychologies, help me out: which of the LaLight or EFHW wagon should be more of a thing?

They aren't things. I was just trying to jumpstart the game. unvote.

@Eddie, I'm not being cautious (see opportunistic vote above), more like not engaged but trying to get there.

[shraeye]

Someone with numbers, help me out: is LaLight or EFHW wagon more of a thing?

Someone with psychologies, help me out: which of the LaLight or EFHW wagon should be more of a thing?

They aren't things. I was just trying to jumpstart the game. unvote.

@Eddie, I'm not being cautious (see opportunistic vote above), more like not engaged but trying to get there.

I feel you

[Brightgalrs]

@Bright, would you be able to give an updated list from your simulation where you marginalise only over the games that contained at least two aliens and at least one WW (and were otherwise acceptable scenarios?). Sorry I didn't get a chance to put together my own simulator over the weekend.

First, I am using a slightly more detailed hierarchy than what I did on Nov 18. So rerunning what I did then, here's what it looks like now, not too different:

Expected values (roles):
   Town: 13.21
   Alien: 1.82
   Mafia: 3.38
   Werewolf: 3.11
   Cult: 0.52
   Lyncher: 0.26
   SerialKiller: 0.51
   Survivor: 0.21

Then doing what you said and rejecting further, we get this:
Expected values:
   Town: 13.0
   Alien: 2.58
   Mafia: 3.12
   Werewolf: 2.95
   Cult: 0.47
   SerialKiller: 0.47
   Lyncher: 0.23
   Survivor: 0.19

Yes, the Alien number jumps up a bit, making a third somewhat likely. Keep in min, if only 2+ Alien games are allowed then of course the expected number of Aliens will be above 2. And then everything else falls a little, that too is to be expected.

[EFHW]

I was told that I was not guaranteed a partner if I chose the alien role.

[LaLight]

LaLight very clearly wants anyone to die that isn’t him. EFHW seems overly... cautious...? For what I normally would associate with her.

Also, I think it is disingenuous to say that Nymph and 1-shot Vig are 1:1, nymph only acts like a 1-Shot Vig in the sense that it kills a player. This choice on who to kill is random, and hugely inconsistent

To say that Bright picking the vig should allow him to justify raerae is about as much of a stretch as I would expect from you..

I just think there is a lot of scum and I townread not very many people. I am pretty sure Joseph is town, I dont scumread any of shraerae at all (surprisingly after the last game) and I am trying to jumpstart the game as well. Oh, also I believe DatSwan is town. Those are people that my vote doesn't go towards. It's not everyone