I do have to say that a large part of my feelings about lio stem from how I feel about everyone else...
Like I said before I have somewhat strong town reads on mcmc and voltaire.
mcmc I have had a bias towards town since the beginning of the game... because I think his "VT slip" was only one that town could make. But he has also played in what I would call VT fashion--somewhat disinterested (mcmc this isn't a criticism, just a commentary because I know you are busy, but I also know that when you are mafia you make it a priority to post a lot more and be more active) and lower on the activity scale in a way that reminds me much more of his town style than his scum. And when he has posted I feel like he has taken positions--although I expect mcmc to be able to do that regardless of alignment. But mostly this just looks more like Mean Girls mcmc than any scum mcmc I have yet seen. Sure he could be trying to pull of that meta as mafia, but it is the riskier route to take... Because he would--and is to an extent here (nkirbit was pretty hard on him, as has lio) for doing so.
voltaire I feel is pretty darn townie to me. He is the most interested in finding scum I think. He has solid posts, good rationale and hasn't allowed himself to be influenced by my posts. This last part is pretty important to me. It is frustrating because I think I am right obviously... but he hans't budged. I think if he is mafia he would be much more likely to eventually cave in and give into my train of thought. That would be very easy to do as mafia. Simply say "man... yuma is making some really good points and I am starting to see what he is saying..." a couple of posts later, "yeah, I think I agree with yuma... vote nkirbit or lio or whatever" but he hasn't done that. He has suspected me, but that doesn't make him scum, it makes him cautious... which is again frustrating, but hey... that is mafia.
mail-mi and spiritbears (eevee) could be mafia, but I lean more on the town side of them. I don't see spiritbears hammering and I still think both are the easier mislynches around and have reflected that by the wagons that have formed and grown on them.
Chairs is pretty much a null read. Hard to have an opinion on him when he is new and very VLA. He still seems pretty sold on the robz stuff.
Robz is next. Robz is hard to read, nuff said. No but really, most of the time I have no idea what scum robz is going to look like and the only times I have caught him out are the times that we have found his partner and then based his actions around that partner to pinpoint him as mafia. As we haven't caught mafia yet, that is a bit difficult.
Lio I think you all know where I stand. And like I said, a lot of it is based off pretty strong to relatively ok town reads on others. And it is basically a process of elimination plus what I think to be somewhat compelling evidence against him.