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[theorel]

Okay, trying to finish sorting through thoughts:

6. mcmc: Robz' got a town-read here.  I'm not sure I have any read here.  I think I knew something about him previously, but right now I can only remember the disagreement I just had about neighbors claiming.  Which while I think it's a request that ultimately benefits scum if followed through on, I don't necessarily think it's scum asking for it.  I mean whatever, we've had plenty of differing opinions in this forum about claiming benefits, and so I don't get much of a read from it.  Oh, starting to remember things now "Jimmmmm tried to trick me", "I'll hammer Cuzz", hmmm...Without Robz' read, I'd read him slight scum.  With Robz' read, I read him very slightly scum.  Scumscore: 31

7. liopoil: the newb.  He's said stuff, I'd need to reread him to get a feel.  Maybe someday I'll have a chance...not tonight though.  scumScore: 30

8. Robz: I agree with him on lots of stuff.  I can't decide if I should suspect him because I don't.  But I don't, so I guess I should just go with it until something changes my mind.  scumScore: 20

9. Glooble: the super-lurker because he has a real life with a job and can't post here 24/7.  I dunno, I've not gotten the townie-vibe others have gotten, but I haven't gotten a scum-vibe (which some other players have also mentioned).  I might try to reread him at some point as well, shouldn't be too hard.  scumScore: 30

10. yuma: I'm not sure if I could pick out scum-yuma.  I think he's a player that requires a smaller town to be able to really analyze what he's said.  For now, he seems like typical town-yuma to me in his analysis and questions, town-guiding etc.  scumScore: 25

11. Dsell: Scum-gambit?  meh, I don't have any real reason to think so.  Absent some compelling reasons, I'm pretty much not going to lynch him.  If we're both still around at lylo I'll reconsider.  scumScore: 20

Yeah, so I think shraeye is the best lynch from everyone so far.  I'll try to reread the null reads to see if they change my mind.  I still need to review Galzria and late-day-1 raerae.  So, I'm gonna vote: shraeye for the moment, to see what might happen there.

[yuma]

In response to queries about shraeye/Munch and raerae/Neighbor(s) I am especially wary. I am wary because both scenarios--as others have mentioned--result in us taking for granted assumptions that we can't prove.... We can't say absolutely that one of shraeye or TheMunch is scum, and it is pretty dangerous if we did. To say that would be like a three person cop investigation like Grujah did in MIX, but without the actual investigation. Same with the Neighbor(s)...

How many scum do we think we have? 3-5? Something like that? out of 15 players at the beginning? So just neutrally everyone has a 3-5/15 chance of being scum... so ~25%. Out of three random players there is a relatively good chance that one of them is scum. But I don't think that raerae/shraeye/themunch increases those odds. This is coming from me who was buddied/mirrored up pretty good in MVIII by scum!Frisk... to the extent that I had a town read throughout most the day on him because we had such similar reads. But honestly I hadn't really noticed that as much with shraeye/TheMunch/raerae. Has anyone actually gone back and analyzed their reads or has it just been a generalization w/o proof? If so, major FOS to anyone that hasn't gone back and proven their similarities. If nobody does this within the next little bit I will tomorrow.

Neighbor(s) I don't think should claim. The only advantage I see is like Robz said that a raerae expressed a read that spooked another Neighbor which could be beneficial for town to know. But is that worth outing them? I guess the real question is having them outing themselves--which then dwindles the population that could potentially have power roles, because in my mind in this game Neighbors are as close to VTs as everyone has some sort of role...? And I think the answer is no.

[shraeye]

But honestly I hadn't really noticed that as much with shraeye/TheMunch/raerae. Has anyone actually gone back and analyzed their reads or has it just been a generalization w/o proof? If so, major FOS to anyone that hasn't gone back and proven their similarities. If nobody does this within the next little bit I will tomorrow.

There were some similarities; but there was at least one difference I can recall (Munch had a scumread on Eevee; I disagreed entirely with munch's reasons for his vote).

I do think this has been a lot of generalization without proof.  In the way that people are stating it enough times, that others are beginning to believe it as fact, even if it isn't.

[Robz888]

But honestly I hadn't really noticed that as much with shraeye/TheMunch/raerae. Has anyone actually gone back and analyzed their reads or has it just been a generalization w/o proof? If so, major FOS to anyone that hasn't gone back and proven their similarities. If nobody does this within the next little bit I will tomorrow.

There were some similarities; but there was at least one difference I can recall (Munch had a scumread on Eevee; I disagreed entirely with munch's reasons for his vote).

I do think this has been a lot of generalization without proof.  In the way that people are stating it enough times, that others are beginning to believe it as fact, even if it isn't.

That Munch/shraeye/raerae had similar patterns and reads Day 1 might have been oversold at this point, but it's still basically true. They were three of the most vocal proponents of the Cuzz lynch, and each of them provided necessary pushes to keep the wagon going at certain junctures. Also, they did not criticize each other, and I can remember at least once or twice where one had one of the others' back.

They aren't identical people, obviously, but it's fairly clear to me that they operate as a mini-team of their own. This might just be because they are fairly close IRL. Truly, that could explain everything by itself. But if I were one of them, and I were scum, I would leverage that relationship/team mentality to hide amongst the other two.

[Jimmmmm]

Re-read shraeye, and from where I'm sitting he has a number of strikes against him:

-The most obvious one is that he championed the lynch of a Townie.
-His second biggest scumread is another Townie (me, yes I know you don't know that, but it's there), against whom he was also campaigning quite strongly. These two cases have been his main two contributions to the game, so regardless of his alignment, he's been rather anti-Town.
-I still feel fairly strongly about my main case against him. In my opinion, he's been quite good at using arguments that sound a lot better than they actually are. I think that might be what Dsell was getting at: his "contributions" have seemed quite compelling but once you start taking them apart they are less so. For those who talk about scum narratives, the one I'm getting here is that shraeye has come into this game knowing that he needed to come across like he's genuinely scumhunting (yes I know multiple scumteams and that), and has ended up finding scumminess where there was little to none, and has put some spin on things to make them sounds scummier than they actually are.
-Also, how much weight this has I'm not entirely sure, but two big Town reads of mine are finding him scummy as well.

So yeah, still a scumread on shraeye. Also, for the record, I stand by my part in the shraeye wagon. I thought, and still do, that his would be a much better lynch than Cuzz', and was trying to get an alternative option for people to consider.

[Jimmmmm]

Okay, re-read Galz to see what I could find. A lot of this will probably be similar to theorel's (I think) post, but meh.

He expressed a huge Townread on Eevee. That's really ballsy play if Eevee's his partner, and I wouldn't put it past him, but it seems very unlikely. Although, now that I think of it, the almost immediate interaction between them could have been planned? Still seems unlikely. So I'm inclined to agree that Galz genuinely thought Eevee was Town.
Here's another thing that caught my eye: he was agreeing with me a lot, but never said I was Towny. In fact he said I was at least somewhat scummy. He said my thoughts on Eevee had merit, and then said similarly about my case on mcmc. You can read that as an indication that I'm Galz' partner, and I guess I can understand why. But from my point of view he was either buddying me (which was probably working) or trying to cast suspicion on me in the case that he was killed. I don't really know what I'm getting at here, just something I noticed.
Then he expressed his four lynch targets: me, Cuzz, shraeye and mcmc. The question I would ask is, how likely do you think it is that Galz would include a partner of his in that list? It seems like the thing often done by scum, but perhaps this is a different situation since with multiple scum teams, his team makes up a smaller percentage of the population. If he did include a partner in that list, that leaves me with shraeye and mcmc. If he didn't, then he probably named people who he actually thought were scummy. In which case we really have Galz' famous scumhunting at work, which might still count for something. And again, that leaves me with shraeye and mcmc. Given that I also suspected both of these on my own, the idea that there's at least one scum between them is looking more and more likely to me.

Also, re-reading Galz I was getting Towny vibes from him, so I had to keep reminding myself that he was scum, so I've got to say that I'm really glad he's gone (no offense Galz if you're up there somewhere watching).

[yuma]

Here's another thing that caught my eye: he was agreeing with me a lot, but never said I was Towny. In fact he said I was at least somewhat scummy. He said my thoughts on Eevee had merit, and then said similarly about my case on mcmc. You can read that as an indication that I'm Galz' partner, and I guess I can understand why. But from my point of view he was either buddying me (which was probably working) or trying to cast suspicion on me in the case that he was killed. I don't really know what I'm getting at here, just something I noticed.
Then he expressed his four lynch targets: me, Cuzz, shraeye and mcmc. The question I would ask is, how likely do you think it is that Galz would include a partner of his in that list? It seems like the thing often done by scum, but perhaps this is a different situation since with multiple scum teams, his team makes up a smaller percentage of the population. If he did include a partner in that list, that leaves me with shraeye and mcmc. If he didn't, then he probably named people who he actually thought were scummy. In which case we really have Galz' famous scumhunting at work, which might still count for something. And again, that leaves me with shraeye and mcmc. Given that I also suspected both of these on my own, the idea that there's at least one scum between them is looking more and more likely to me.

I am much more comfortable in thinking that there is scum within the three of mcmc/Jimmm/shraeye then I am in thinking that there is scum in raerae/shraeye/munch. Galz's trio actually has something of substance to base it off. It isn't surefire, but it is a lot better than raerae/shraeye/munch... But again has the same danger... For example: say if we lynch mcmc and say town!Jimmmm dies in the night that doesn't guarantee shraeye is scum... and could easily result in 2 mislynches before we finally realize that there wasn't scum in the mix... But I do think it is a better bet than heading down the other route.

[shraeye]

I agree, yuma.

[Jimmmmm]

If I had to choose between Munch and mcmc I'd choose mcmc at this stage, so I guess I agree too.

[mcmcsalot]

Here's another thing that caught my eye: he was agreeing with me a lot, but never said I was Towny. In fact he said I was at least somewhat scummy. He said my thoughts on Eevee had merit, and then said similarly about my case on mcmc. You can read that as an indication that I'm Galz' partner, and I guess I can understand why. But from my point of view he was either buddying me (which was probably working) or trying to cast suspicion on me in the case that he was killed. I don't really know what I'm getting at here, just something I noticed.
Then he expressed his four lynch targets: me, Cuzz, shraeye and mcmc. The question I would ask is, how likely do you think it is that Galz would include a partner of his in that list? It seems like the thing often done by scum, but perhaps this is a different situation since with multiple scum teams, his team makes up a smaller percentage of the population. If he did include a partner in that list, that leaves me with shraeye and mcmc. If he didn't, then he probably named people who he actually thought were scummy. In which case we really have Galz' famous scumhunting at work, which might still count for something. And again, that leaves me with shraeye and mcmc. Given that I also suspected both of these on my own, the idea that there's at least one scum between them is looking more and more likely to me.

I am much more comfortable in thinking that there is scum within the three of mcmc/Jimmm/shraeye then I am in thinking that there is scum in raerae/shraeye/munch. Galz's trio actually has something of substance to base it off. It isn't surefire, but it is a lot better than raerae/shraeye/munch... But again has the same danger... For example: say if we lynch mcmc and say town!Jimmmm dies in the night that doesn't guarantee shraeye is scum... and could easily result in 2 mislynches before we finally realize that there wasn't scum in the mix... But I do think it is a better bet than heading down the other route.

If I had to choose between Munch and mcmc I'd choose mcmc at this stage, so I guess I agree too.

why us two? You just said you had a scum read on shraeye and hes in both of the groups mentioned above.

Re-read shraeye, and from where I'm sitting he has a number of strikes against him:

-The most obvious one is that he championed the lynch of a Townie.
-His second biggest scumread is another Townie (me, yes I know you don't know that, but it's there), against whom he was also campaigning quite strongly. These two cases have been his main two contributions to the game, so regardless of his alignment, he's been rather anti-Town.
-I still feel fairly strongly about my main case against him. In my opinion, he's been quite good at using arguments that sound a lot better than they actually are. I think that might be what Dsell was getting at: his "contributions" have seemed quite compelling but once you start taking them apart they are less so. For those who talk about scum narratives, the one I'm getting here is that shraeye has come into this game knowing that he needed to come across like he's genuinely scumhunting (yes I know multiple scumteams and that), and has ended up finding scumminess where there was little to none, and has put some spin on things to make them sounds scummier than they actually are.
-Also, how much weight this has I'm not entirely sure, but two big Town reads of mine are finding him scummy as well.

So yeah, still a scumread on shraeye. Also, for the record, I stand by my part in the shraeye wagon. I thought, and still do, that his would be a much better lynch than Cuzz', and was trying to get an alternative option for people to consider.

[Jimmmmm]

why us two? You just said you had a scum read on shraeye and hes in both of the groups mentioned above.

Both of the sets of players yuma mentioned contained one Town, shraeye, and one other unknown, so the only real difference between Munshraerae and {Jimmmmm/shraeye/mcmc} for me is that Munch is in one and you're in the other.

[yuma]

Someone asked for a day 2 post count... this isn't perfect, but hopefully kinda close...

1. ashersky - 228 total, 177 from day 1 leaving 51, 22%
2. Robz - 182 total, 169 from day 1 leaving 13, 7%
3. yuma - 82 total, 73 from day 1 leaving 9, 11%
4. Eevee - 126 total, 12 from day 1 leaving 4!, 2%
5. Shraeye - 94 total, 60 from day 1 leaving 34, 36%
7. Glooble - 45 total, 35 from day 1 leaving 10, 22%
9. liopoil - 46 total, 37 from day 1 leaving 9, 20%
10. mcmcsalot - 61 total, 48 from day 1 leaving 13, 21%
11. Jimmmmm - 147 total, 127 from day 1 leaving 20, 14%
12. theorel - 48 total, 26 from day 1 leaving 22, 46%
13. TheMunch - 69 total, 49 from day 1 leaving 20, 29%
14. Dsell - 33 total, 30 from day 1 leaving 3!, 9%

So looking at this, really surprised by low participation from eevee and dsell, really only 7 posts between them! Also shraeye and theorel have been much more active today than yesterday.... but then again so has everyone that was involved in that huge conversation, Themunch, ash, etc... The other surprise was relatively low numbers from Robz... but didn't he say somewhere that he was sick?

[ashersky]

why us two? You just said you had a scum read on shraeye and hes in both of the groups mentioned above.

Both of the sets of players yuma mentioned contained one Town, shraeye, and one other unknown, so the only real difference between Munshraerae and {Jimmmmm/shraeye/mcmc} for me is that Munch is in one and you're in the other.

I think the second set should be called McShraeJim.

[Eevee]

This game is just too big for me. My biggest read yesterday was that Cuzz was town, I honestly feel like.. I don't have any anymore. I'm reading alone, but just don't feel like I have anything to add.

Could there be scum in Munch, shraeye and raerae? Yes, they were all scumreads for me yesterday so I think it's possible. Not sure about it though. I think shraeye looks the scummiest, hence my vote.

I don't have any super strong town reads either. I don't like the scumslip-case against ashersky. Seems to be the kind of thing he gets mislynched for as town all the time. I don't think it makes him likelier to be town, but not any less likely either.

Day 1 is just too long to reread which is absolutely killing my abilities to play well here. Also, I think for some reason we haven't gotten much productive discussion in. Maybe it's because day 1 was so long, I know I haven't been able to get anything going either.

[Robz888]

Someone asked for a day 2 post count... this isn't perfect, but hopefully kinda close...

1. ashersky - 228 total, 177 from day 1 leaving 51, 22%
2. Robz - 182 total, 169 from day 1 leaving 13, 7%
3. yuma - 82 total, 73 from day 1 leaving 9, 11%
4. Eevee - 126 total, 12 from day 1 leaving 4!, 2%
5. Shraeye - 94 total, 60 from day 1 leaving 34, 36%
7. Glooble - 45 total, 35 from day 1 leaving 10, 22%
9. liopoil - 46 total, 37 from day 1 leaving 9, 20%
10. mcmcsalot - 61 total, 48 from day 1 leaving 13, 21%
11. Jimmmmm - 147 total, 127 from day 1 leaving 20, 14%
12. theorel - 48 total, 26 from day 1 leaving 22, 46%
13. TheMunch - 69 total, 49 from day 1 leaving 20, 29%
14. Dsell - 33 total, 30 from day 1 leaving 3!, 9%

So looking at this, really surprised by low participation from eevee and dsell, really only 7 posts between them! Also shraeye and theorel have been much more active today than yesterday.... but then again so has everyone that was involved in that huge conversation, Themunch, ash, etc... The other surprise was relatively low numbers from Robz... but didn't he say somewhere that he was sick?

Yes, oh I am in bad shape, friends. This is day 4 of the DC superflu for me, finally got worthless doctor to prescribe me antibiotics. Can't read full sentences right now.

[yuma]

Yes, oh I am in bad shape, friends. This is day 4 of the DC superflu for me, finally got worthless doctor to prescribe me antibiotics. Can't read full sentences right now.

well if you really have the flu, those antibiotics are going to do nothing for you except reck havoc on your bowels... sorry to be off topic, but as a med tech in training this drives me nuts! Flu is spread by a virus, antibiotics are for bacteria. If you really have the flu I would treat the symptoms. Make sure you drink plenty of fluids, eat bananas and sleep. But if you have a bacterial infection, then perhaps the antibiotics are for you.

Rant over, and I do hope you feel better. I have heard the east coast is getting rocked with the flu... can't wait for it to come out west. No I mean I really can't wait, it will probably result in my department getting a bonus! Because of all the testing we will do for it!

[ashersky]

This game is just too big for me. My biggest read yesterday was that Cuzz was town, I honestly feel like.. I don't have any anymore. I'm reading alone, but just don't feel like I have anything to add.

Could there be scum in Munch, shraeye and raerae? Yes, they were all scumreads for me yesterday so I think it's possible. Not sure about it though. I think shraeye looks the scummiest, hence my vote.

I don't have any super strong town reads either. I don't like the scumslip-case against ashersky. Seems to be the kind of thing he gets mislynched for as town all the time. I don't think it makes him likelier to be town, but not any less likely either.

Day 1 is just too long to reread which is absolutely killing my abilities to play well here. Also, I think for some reason we haven't gotten much productive discussion in. Maybe it's because day 1 was so long, I know I haven't been able to get anything going either.

Earlier you mentioned you had so much town cred you didn't feel the need to act towny.  Can you elaborate?

[Eevee]

Well, if someone built a case against me, I would obviously respond. It's what I spent most of last day doing, defending Cuzz or responding to people's suspicion on me. Now no one seems to find me scummy anymore and also the evidence kind of points to me being town, I feel this town is too big for me to handle and thread too long to reread, so I'm left with vague reads and nothing to say. That's why I'm underposting so much.

[yuma]

so here is the reread of shraeye/munch/raerae

Raerae: is defended by shraeye over the "wearing" of pants... believes it is a "crappy case against eevee" had a townish read on Jimmm over the eevee-case... is concerned early on that she is lumped in with shraeye, but theorel (and at this point I agree)... notes that her and shraeye at that time were always going to be online together... first interaction with the Munch is toward mid-day (post 31 of raerae's) asking him about his reads... disagrees with themunch about a statement by dsell that themunch found scummy... big case on Jimmm preceded by shraeye, but the way it was presented was completely different. I could believe one was hiding behind each other if raerae went first, but shraeye went first... null read on themunch stated midgame... gets mad a cuzz's joke about the trio... agree's with shraye's argument about cuzz... a big reason for her vote on cuzz was his refusal to talk about Jimmm.... is confused when Robz votes shraeye after sheeping his scum read...

shraeye: says shraeye is wearing pants... calls out raerae for saying that someone?who I don't know called her scummy, when they didn't... finds raerae attractive (this is really, really scummy... I mean who else calls another player attractive? Just scum written all over this!) ... not a lot of analysis early as he was "saving up".... talks about eevee and jimmm, votes jimmm... and then cuzz and then jimmmm... calls out theMunch for "nonsense" for a non-argument vote on eevee.... asks everyone what they think about themunch.... talks about themunch being devastated after the switch game ... ask's ash about "Why attack Eevee's vote on Munch as scummy, but not attack Munch's or Robz's vote on Eevee?"....

this is what I have so far... and am going to post it now so I don't lose it, but now it is time to make tacos! so I'll finish it later.

[shraeye]

Day 1 is just too long to reread which is absolutely killing my abilities to play well here. Also, I think for some reason we haven't gotten much productive discussion in. Maybe it's because day 1 was so long, I know I haven't been able to get anything going either.

I'm never gonna stop saying this: you can sometimes say TOO much on day1s.  At the end of the day yesterday, there were people who were holding off voting until EVERYONE had commented on this or that.

There are times where that is useful, but at this point hardly anyone has gone back to check, or has the effort to do it (kudos to those who do).  Making sure everyone is on record is worthless if nobody wants to check the record.

[Jimmmmm]

shraeye: says shraeye is wearing pants...

I think this is part of the shraerae problem: their names are so similar that it's hard to keep them straight.

[yuma]

shraeye continued: calls out theMunch for a confusing post about conflicting ideas...  calls out TheMunch for a post about Robz's kinda rolefish... votes cuzz, but doesn't want to go down the glooble lynch.... had "fun scolding themunch"... further's his case on Cuzz... gives an uncertain read about mcmc... doesn't want a mega-day 1, complains when it gets large...


TheMunch: talks to raerae about the lack of theory conversation.... puts a vote down on eevee (the one that shraeye criticized)... has an "off read" on ash... says "raerae is raerae" theorizes she could be sk... and doesn't think shraeye was worth mentioning at this point... admits feeling not as confident after the switch mafia... finds shraeye's case on Cuzz as "meh" but feels that Cuzz's response was worth a vote... agrees with 100% on shraeye's read on glooble, expresses a dislike for the long day1... doesn't like an eevee POE suspicion on raerae... really pushes for the Cuzz lynch, like hard... has a strong town read on shraeye in response to Cuzz....

Reminder: this isn't an attempt to analyze munch and shraeye in terms of scumminess... but is instead an attempt to analyze if they are so similar to each other and raerae... and to be honest I don't think there was much merit to this idea. All three voted for Cuzz... but all three expressed pretty different rationales for doing so... All three wanted day1 to end.... there were a few situations where RL confirmations came into play (raerae with pants and munch feeling bad after MXV) but those are unique to their friendship/living situation... But there really isn't anything else that jumps out. The fact that they expressed frustration at being lumped together very early in the game just confirms the idea that this idea developed early... partially as a joke... and then was turned into something as others began to look for it and ignored evidence to the contrary. To be honest if raerae were still alive I would find her to be the most likely culprit for hiding behind others. She tended to be behind and came second in reads... not a lot, but more so than the other two.

So I don't think there is any greater chance of finding scum between shraeye and themunch than any other two players. I think this has been a road of faulty logic that we as town have gone down. Now the question is such: who is more likely to create this type of myth? Town or scum?

[yuma]

Day 1 is just too long to reread which is absolutely killing my abilities to play well here. Also, I think for some reason we haven't gotten much productive discussion in. Maybe it's because day 1 was so long, I know I haven't been able to get anything going either.

I wouldn't suggest a full reread of the whole day. I would recommend selected a player, going to print screen and rereading them specifically, then move onto the next as you have time. The question is who you should reread... the answer, someone you remember finding scummy from yesterday combined with the information from today's flip and conversations!

[shraeye]

I would say absolutely that scum *benefits* the most from it.  I'm wary of Munch, but it's definitely possible he is town. 

I'm not certain that scum is more likely to create this impression, but I tend towards thinking that they would.  I could also see them propagating this idea.

[TheMunch]

With this new evidence from Yuma I would love to reread anyone (cause I want to do something; I feel like I've been limping through cause I haven't really cared about much since I caught Ashersky) that has been pushing the groupthink on munch/shraeye/raerae and see if I see anything specific.  Does anyone know which players are specifically guilty of doing so?  Otherwise tomorrow I will just skim for a list of players that have expressed these opinions and see what I can find.