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Author Topic: M45 - Stack the Deck Rerun (mafia wins)  (Read 196061 times)

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Witherweaver

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Re: M45 - Stack the Deck Rerun - D2
« Reply #650 on: June 20, 2014, 09:39:28 am »

Woah now. Hold on.

1) I don't think that was a scumslip.
2) No, if faust bodyguarded someone that does not make them townier.
3) No, we're not lynching Robz just because you say so.
4) Robz is not in a "leadership" position, and if he is it's only because you choose to follow him.
5) How is Robz responsible for faust's death (besides the possibility of him being scum?)
6) Calm down. It's going to be ok.
Oh thank you. I was so confused after Robz post, I really didn't know what to say. His assumption is so complex, I'm having trouble formulating any response to it.

It's not that complicated.

Faust is our only death. Faust has a role that means if he guarded the nightkill, he died instead of the nightkill. This means that either faust was the nightkill, or faust guarded the nightkill.

If faust guarded the nightkill, mafia selected someone else to die, other than faust.

Your imprecise reaction was to assume two deaths, a death besides faust. This tells me you are scum who misunderstood, thinking faust was dead in addition to the person you shot.

I don't buy this.  We had something like this back in Monster's U where Archetype forgot that ADK was nightkilled.  I maintain that scum pays a lot of attention to the flip.  Someone had argued otherwise, because they "know" what's going to happen.

But, when I've been scum, I want to see if (1) my kill was successful, (2) there are any additional kills (vigs/SKs are a big deal!), (3) did I hit a PR? 

I just can't buy scum thinking there were two night kills when there was only one.  Plus, as scum you make plans during the night and have a lot of ideas on how things might go down with the kills on during the next day.  You want to check if all your premises and expectations are correct.
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mail-mi

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Re: M45 - Stack the Deck Rerun - D2
« Reply #651 on: June 20, 2014, 11:30:53 am »

xerxes is tunneling robz like there is no tomorrow. "Robz's vote on IG looks bussish so I'll sheep him" is just a nonsensical post.

Mail-mi, what are your reads/impressions? have you read everything?
I've read the beginning and the end of D1, and I plan on rereading it later today.
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Teproc

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Re: M45 - Stack the Deck Rerun - D2
« Reply #652 on: June 20, 2014, 11:55:56 am »

WW, regarding Bodyguard, I can see how what you're saying makes sense, in that Bodyguard is at its most useful when there's a claimed PR, but I think most people would just automatically use it. If you die instead of a PR it's great, if you die instead of a VT it's not that good, but at least it can clear someone if you crumb correctly. It doesn't look like faust breadcrumbed his target, but I think yuma is the most likely.

By the way I don't think your way of playing it would be good here, because it is fairly likely that mafia took JOAT and thus has strongman, which would allow them to kill a claimed PR through a Bodyguard.

Also, do you think faust was killed ? I suppose he was active and opposed the lynch, which isn't true of any of the other active players. Actually, I guess he might have been killed, why did I think that wasn't the case again ?
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Robz888

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Re: M45 - Stack the Deck Rerun - D2
« Reply #653 on: June 20, 2014, 11:56:15 am »

Ichi hasn't explained to me in a satisfying way why he thought there were two deaths, so I'm keeping my vote there for now.
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Robz888

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Re: M45 - Stack the Deck Rerun - D2
« Reply #654 on: June 20, 2014, 11:57:07 am »

WW, regarding Bodyguard, I can see how what you're saying makes sense, in that Bodyguard is at its most useful when there's a claimed PR, but I think most people would just automatically use it. If you die instead of a PR it's great, if you die instead of a VT it's not that good, but at least it can clear someone if you crumb correctly. It doesn't look like faust breadcrumbed his target, but I think yuma is the most likely.

By the way I don't think your way of playing it would be good here, because it is fairly likely that mafia took JOAT and thus has strongman, which would allow them to kill a claimed PR through a Bodyguard.

Also, do you think faust was killed ? I suppose he was active and opposed the lynch, which isn't true of any of the other active players. Actually, I guess he might have been killed, why did I think that wasn't the case again ?

I could very believably see faust being nightkill targeted. Although I could also very believably see yuma being guarded by faust and shot by scum.
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Teproc

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Re: M45 - Stack the Deck Rerun - D2
« Reply #655 on: June 20, 2014, 12:08:00 pm »

I could very believably see faust being nightkill targeted. Although I could also very believably see yuma being guarded by faust and shot by scum.

Yeah, this is the conclusion I've come to as well. Annoying, I was hoping we'd get more out of this NK.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M45 - Stack the Deck Rerun - D2
« Reply #656 on: June 20, 2014, 12:56:21 pm »

WW, regarding Bodyguard, I can see how what you're saying makes sense, in that Bodyguard is at its most useful when there's a claimed PR, but I think most people would just automatically use it. If you die instead of a PR it's great, if you die instead of a VT it's not that good, but at least it can clear someone if you crumb correctly. It doesn't look like faust breadcrumbed his target, but I think yuma is the most likely.

By the way I don't think your way of playing it would be good here, because it is fairly likely that mafia took JOAT and thus has strongman, which would allow them to kill a claimed PR through a Bodyguard.

Also, do you think faust was killed ? I suppose he was active and opposed the lynch, which isn't true of any of the other active players. Actually, I guess he might have been killed, why did I think that wasn't the case again ?

Well, that still makes them blow their JOAT.  Or if you bodyguard and your target is Strongman killed, do you both die?

Oh, I guess I see your point about breadcrumbing.  So if Faust gives hints that he's going to guard, e.g., Yuma, and Faust ends up dead, then we may be able to deduce that Yuma was targeted, and therefore must be town.  So Faust is kind of sacrificing himself for a one-shot confirmed town result.  (Modulo the uncertainty of whether or not he was the actual target).

Okay, so I redact my red herring comment somewhat. 

Well, I was thinking that Faust was certainly killed because bodyguarding didn't make sense.  I definitely would have waited to find PRs, though that probably would have been naive. 

I guess something to speak to him not being the target was that he was sort of automatically receiving scum points for leaving his vote on someone who wasn't getting lynched.  So scum could press that point and try to get him lynched.
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M45 - Stack the Deck Rerun - D2
« Reply #657 on: June 20, 2014, 12:59:00 pm »

Also, do you think faust was killed ? I suppose he was active and opposed the lynch, which isn't true of any of the other active players. Actually, I guess he might have been killed, why did I think that wasn't the case again ?

I was active and opposed the lynch more than anybody else. How did you miss that? I don't scum would target me though, that just wouldn't make sense. Yuma is a likely target but really it's all just speculation.
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Wins: M39, M41, M48, M96, M97, M102, M105
Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: M45 - Stack the Deck Rerun - D2
« Reply #658 on: June 20, 2014, 01:15:23 pm »

Also, do you think faust was killed ? I suppose he was active and opposed the lynch, which isn't true of any of the other active players. Actually, I guess he might have been killed, why did I think that wasn't the case again ?

I was active and opposed the lynch more than anybody else. How did you miss that? I don't scum would target me though, that just wouldn't make sense. Yuma is a likely target but really it's all just speculation.
I was also active, and opposed the lynch heavily until the very end. My question remains unanswered as to whether a no-lynch would have been worse than a mislynch.

Ichi hasn't explained to me in a satisfying way why he thought there were two deaths, so I'm keeping my vote there for now.
Well of course that's the way it is. I was confused and what I thought made no sense. How do I logically explain that to you differently? I don't have some elaborate logic behind my misconception. I was tired and misinterpreted something you said, and later realized that it made no sense. I guess you can't accept that I just made an honest mistake, but you couldn't accept my read on EgorK either--and you still think you're right I guess.

AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M45 - Stack the Deck Rerun - D2
« Reply #659 on: June 20, 2014, 01:29:12 pm »

Also, do you think faust was killed ? I suppose he was active and opposed the lynch, which isn't true of any of the other active players. Actually, I guess he might have been killed, why did I think that wasn't the case again ?

I was active and opposed the lynch more than anybody else. How did you miss that? I don't scum would target me though, that just wouldn't make sense. Yuma is a likely target but really it's all just speculation.
I was also active, and opposed the lynch heavily until the very end. My question remains unanswered as to whether a no-lynch would have been worse than a mislynch.

In retrospect yes. In general I'm going to say yes as well.

Any debatable scumslip argument is not a scumslip. A true scumslip is a cut and dry, super obvious "hey guys I'm 100% scum!" mistake. This is not that and the very fact that we can argue against it means it's not a valid argument. Same thing with WW's scumslip argument against XP earlier. So I definitely get more a scummy read on Robz for that.

I can't understand why anybody would have MORE of a townread on Robz for pushing a mislynch. Yes I understand town pushes mislynches and mislynches happen D1. But it shouldn't be something that affects reads at all. What should affect your reads is HOW Robz pushed for the mislynch. Personally, I can't even remember what the case on EgorK was. I mean I know it's D1 and a strong case isn't necessary and that's fine. But does anybody who was on the wagon have a really good reason why they voted EgorK? Or was it just because Robz was so confident in his read that you put all your faith in him? I'm not accusing anyone of anything, I'm just curious as to how all of that went down. In fact, I think I'll go back and reread and research this for myself.
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Wins: M39, M41, M48, M96, M97, M102, M105
Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M45 - Stack the Deck Rerun - D1
« Reply #660 on: June 20, 2014, 01:50:01 pm »

Robz's original vote:

I'm sort of getting cold feet on the ADK lynch (which will look hella scummy if he is scum, and actually, sort of just looks hella scummy period), but I need more from Egork at the moment. Vote: Egork

Robz's original argument for voting EgorK, for lack of contribution:

Nah, no Teproc lynch. Didn't like faust's case.

Egork is where it's at.

Wait why Egork?

Because I said so. That's what I'm selling now.

Anyway, he's a lurker, and hasn't had anything excellent to add to the conversation.

WW's vote, for lack of contribution and targeted reads on only the two "biggest" wagons (I only had two votes on me):

I disagree. Newer players aren't always this lurky, and his rereads were super scummy. He only reread the major wagons and took a stance on them that allowed him to join the biggest one. EgorK lynch is certainly fine with me.

This is a very good point.  Vote: EgorK.  His only other contribution beyond his "targeted reread" was on Faust's theory talk, plus a comment on world cup and on how the deadline was all the sudden here.

Teproc's vote for nobody fighting against the ADK wagon (?):

I'm having second thoughts about ADK. No one seems to be actively fighting this lynch. Maybe they're just absent (DD and... someone ?), but it's a little strange.

vote : EgorK

ADK's vote for a townread on Robz and EgorK and Ichi's votes on Robz:

So I'm back a lot earlier than I thought I would be. I should be around until deadline.

I'm not sure of what to think of Robz here, but it's reminding me of MVP Robz from Adventure Time a little. And I think EgorK's vote would be informative, and his and Ichi's twin-OMGUS looks fishy to me. So

Vote: EgorK

My vote on EgorK, to avoid a no-lynch. It seemed like there was nobody online at the time and we had discussion coming to a consensus well before deadline (I switch my vote a little later):

vote: EgorK

yuma's vote because he's sure Robz is town and he likes the case on EgorK:

Vote: EgorK

Robz is def town. I think he would have moved to Andrew if he were scum. I have no idea what this says about Andrew or Egork, but I see the case on Egork and I think that wagon has a higher ceiling then Andrew does, although I still think Andrew is scummy.

EgorK. You should consider claiming... But I am not going to say that you should.

Ichi's vote on EgorK to avoid a no-lynch... I think:

Damn it. I do have to go.

vote: EgorK
His flip will at least tell us alot.

And finally Eevee's reason for hammering and the hammer itself, also to avoid a no-lynch:

I'm here and not in love with this, but I guess it isn't the worst thing ever.

Vote: Egork
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Wins: M39, M41, M48, M96, M97, M102, M105
Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
MVPs: M97
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Eevee

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Re: M45 - Stack the Deck Rerun - D2
« Reply #661 on: June 20, 2014, 02:03:02 pm »

yea, my choices were to hammer or let it slide to nolynch.
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Robz888

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Re: M45 - Stack the Deck Rerun - D2
« Reply #662 on: June 20, 2014, 02:10:32 pm »

No Lynch would have been worse, No Lynch is always terrible until later when we need like more nights for our vigs, or scum to shoot each other, or something.
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Robz888

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Re: M45 - Stack the Deck Rerun - D2
« Reply #663 on: June 20, 2014, 02:11:46 pm »

Well of course that's the way it is. I was confused and what I thought made no sense. How do I logically explain that to you differently? I don't have some elaborate logic behind my misconception. I was tired and misinterpreted something you said, and later realized that it made no sense. I guess you can't accept that I just made an honest mistake, but you couldn't accept my read on EgorK either--and you still think you're right I guess.

No, I can accept that. I make similar mistakes all the time.

I'm just trying to understand how you say you arrived at an erroneous conclusion, and am not quite satisfied with your response.
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Eevee

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Re: M45 - Stack the Deck Rerun - D2
« Reply #664 on: June 20, 2014, 02:14:11 pm »

No Lynch would have been worse, No Lynch is always terrible until later when we need like more nights for our vigs, or scum to shoot each other, or something.
hence my reluctant vote.
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M45 - Stack the Deck Rerun - D2
« Reply #665 on: June 20, 2014, 02:19:11 pm »

Here are a couple things on the expanded case on EgorK. faust brings up a good point early on and Robz responds to it. Here it is:

I think EgorK has added more to the conversation than both DeDe and Eevee.

Yeah, probably a valid point on DeDe. On Eevee, don't care, disinterested Day 1 Eevee isn't scummy.

Teproc brings up this point on EgorK's targeted reads:

I disagree. Newer players aren't always this lurky, and his rereads were super scummy. He only reread the major wagons and took a stance on them that allowed him to join the biggest one. EgorK lynch is certainly fine with me.

EgorK's response and a counter-response from WW:

What's scummy in the rereads? That I had rereads on two major wagons when experienced players says that votes on people that are unlikely to be lynched are bad? They were obvious targets for reread

And yes, I joined ADK wagon, through I do not like reason for its start, I still find ADK scummy

It's more that you never expressed an opinion about anything else before this.  Other than theory talk, which is the easiest thing to talk about regardless of alignment.  And "two major wagons" is slightly misleading, as Andrew only had two votes, and speculation had been raised about many other players.  It's not as if those were the only options for the day.

And that was pretty much the extent of the case on EgorK. The rest of Robz's argument were posts like this:

Okay I have completely, blindingly convinced myself that Egork and Ichi are scum. I will lynch either, but we MUST lynch one of those two. Everyone voting for ADK, Teproc, whoever, I am calling on you to do the townie thing and sheep me like you've never sheeped before.

So with all that in mind, here's what I think about the votes on EgorK:

Robz and WW vote EgorK for lurking/lack of contribution.
Teproc votes because nobody is fighting against the ADK wagon (still really confused about this).
ADK and yuma vote because they have a townread on Robz (and yuma says he sees the case on EgorK).
Ichi and Eevee vote to avoid a no-lynch.

Robz and WW originally vote EgorK for lurking and not contributing. It was mentioned that DD and Eevee were even more lurky to which Robz responded that that's a good point and he doesn't care, respectively.

Teproc could you elaborate on your vote? I'm pretty confused by it. Also just a quick note, faust had a pretty big scumread on Teproc and likewise Teproc on faust. But faust made a few pretty involved posts that may be worth rereading at some point.

ADK's vote is based on a townread on Robz and EgorK's and Ichi's votes on Robz. This is important. Towards the end of D1 I said over and over again that ADK is scummy because he legitimized his vote on WW based on something that ash did in a different game. This is pretty much the same situation. He's legitimizing his vote on EgorK based on a townread on Robz and not so much a scumread on EgorK. He does point to EgorK's and Ichi's votes on Robz but really, what is scummy about voting for someone who has started a wagon on you based on a case you don't understand? Also I'm the one who suggested a Robz lynch in the first place. This is consistent with what I was saying about ADK earlier in D1.

yuma's vote is also based on a townread on Robz but he also says he sees the case on Egork. However he doesn't elaborate on it at all. Combined with the fact that after all that talk about figuring out a lynch well before deadline early in D1 he decided it'd be a good idea to start a wagon on me close to the deadline, this is a really scummy vote.

Ichi and Eevee both voted to avoid a no lynch about an hour before deadlne. I have strong townreads on both of them for this. I don't think scum would just come in and plop a vote down without trying to make some sort of explanation. Thus my scum reads on ADK and yuma.

vote: ADK
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Wins: M39, M41, M48, M96, M97, M102, M105
Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
MVPs: M97
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: M45 - Stack the Deck Rerun - D2
« Reply #666 on: June 20, 2014, 02:20:14 pm »

Well of course that's the way it is. I was confused and what I thought made no sense. How do I logically explain that to you differently? I don't have some elaborate logic behind my misconception. I was tired and misinterpreted something you said, and later realized that it made no sense. I guess you can't accept that I just made an honest mistake, but you couldn't accept my read on EgorK either--and you still think you're right I guess.

No, I can accept that. I make similar mistakes all the time.

I'm just trying to understand how you say you arrived at an erroneous conclusion, and am not quite satisfied with your response.
Ok. Well I'm not sure if I can explain it any better. This post was my best attempt. http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11240.msg390684#msg390684
It makes even less sense to me now with a clearer head, but that's how I arrived at that conclusion.

I think the formulation of my wagon has given us some useful information though. In particular, Xerxes assessment that you are bussing me--but then he votes for me. I have perhaps a slight scumread on mail-mi--given DD's lurking, it reminds me of Archetype in Greater Idea.

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Re: M45 - Stack the Deck Rerun - D2
« Reply #667 on: June 20, 2014, 02:28:09 pm »

Bah, I made a phone post that didn't go through.

To those that didn't want to vote EgorK but did at the end: I agree that it was definitely the right choice.  He was offline and had already passed on claiming, and the alternative was surely a no lynch.

Andrew, why did you state intent to hammer but didn't vote?
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M45 - Stack the Deck Rerun - D2
« Reply #668 on: June 20, 2014, 02:46:50 pm »

Because I was on a date with my girlfriend.
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Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
MVPs: M97
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Witherweaver

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Re: M45 - Stack the Deck Rerun - D2
« Reply #669 on: June 20, 2014, 02:48:11 pm »

Because I was on a date with my girlfriend.

....... did you give her the hammer?

(had to do it)
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Re: M45 - Stack the Deck Rerun - D2
« Reply #670 on: June 20, 2014, 02:56:49 pm »

I really think Xerxes is town, by the way.

Also lean town on Teproc and yuma.

ADK is probably a wagon I could support.
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Re: M45 - Stack the Deck Rerun - D2
« Reply #671 on: June 20, 2014, 03:12:54 pm »

Vote: Robz

This is mostly gut, but something about how he opened up posting after the thread unlock feels very scummy.  Like a "this is terrible for town, better come out acting really worried".  And I get the feeling he knows something about the night kill. Plus, buddying the guy tunneling him.
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Re: M45 - Stack the Deck Rerun - D2
« Reply #672 on: June 20, 2014, 03:16:00 pm »

Vote: Robz

This is mostly gut, but something about how he opened up posting after the thread unlock feels very scummy.  Like a "this is terrible for town, better come out acting really worried".  And I get the feeling he knows something about the night kill. Plus, buddying the guy tunneling him.

I do understand why you think I'm scummy, and you're correct that I acted similarly as in XMen. (That's because in XMen I was trying to act like my town self, and this is genuinely me, but you know, WIFOM and it's hard to tell apart anyway.)
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Re: M45 - Stack the Deck Rerun - D2
« Reply #673 on: June 20, 2014, 03:35:56 pm »

Vote: Robz

This is mostly gut, but something about how he opened up posting after the thread unlock feels very scummy.  Like a "this is terrible for town, better come out acting really worried".  And I get the feeling he knows something about the night kill. Plus, buddying the guy tunneling him.

I do understand why you think I'm scummy, and you're correct that I acted similarly as in XMen. (That's because in XMen I was trying to act like my town self, and this is genuinely me, but you know, WIFOM and it's hard to tell apart anyway.)
upon posting, did you realize what a classic scumtell this is?
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Re: M45 - Stack the Deck Rerun - D2
« Reply #674 on: June 20, 2014, 03:40:09 pm »

Vote: Robz

This is mostly gut, but something about how he opened up posting after the thread unlock feels very scummy.  Like a "this is terrible for town, better come out acting really worried".  And I get the feeling he knows something about the night kill. Plus, buddying the guy tunneling him.

I do understand why you think I'm scummy, and you're correct that I acted similarly as in XMen. (That's because in XMen I was trying to act like my town self, and this is genuinely me, but you know, WIFOM and it's hard to tell apart anyway.)
upon posting, did you realize what a classic scumtell this is?

I have said this game after game: This is absolutely not a scumtell for me (I'm not sure whether it's a scumtell for anyone else). I like to think that I can give a fair evaluation of the arguments against me, regardless of my alignment, and have done just that in many games... as you know!
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.
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