Welp, my motivation to try has bottomed out considering the chances of winning. But, I think we need to think this through. (Isn’t two scum teams still technically possible? I think town can’t win in that scenarios though so I am ignoring it here.)
If SK+2M, we have 3 v 2 v 1. Let’s worst case it:
Mislynch, 2v2v1, both town NK, 2v1 and M wins.
Mislynch, 2v2v1, town NK, 1v2v1. No lynch then see who wins? Seems hopeless here.
Mislynch, 2v2v1, town/M NK, 1v1v1 and kingmaker? Did joth make a ruling on that?
Mislynch, 2v2v1, M NK, 2v1v1, seems bad. No lynch and cross fingers.
M lynch, 3v1v1, both town NK, 1v1v1 and kingmaker.
M lynch, 3v1v1, town NK, 2v1v1. Lynch one bad guy and lose to the other or mislynch and lose to someone.
M lynch, 3v1v1, town/M NK, 2v1 and regular LYLO.
M lynch, 3v1v1, M NK, 3v1, no lynch then lylo.
SK lynch, 3v2, town NK, 2v2 means No Lynch, Town NK puts us to LYLO.
No lynch, 3v2v1, both town NK, see 1v2v1 scenario.
No lynch, 3v2v1, town NK, 2v2v1, a few possibilities arise.
No lynch, 3v2v1, town/M NK, 2v1v1, sure loss.
No lynch, 3v2v1, M NK, 3v1v1, some possibilities arise.
So it is at least MYLO. There are maybe two or three scenarios where we could still win. The single safest outcome seems to be lynching the SK. Second might be NL (+lightning rod were that in play).
It’s that odd almost kingmaker-y scenario where some scum lynched hurt our chances of winning.