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[Eevee]

On my phone, gotta lazy quote this, how would MiX know joth would do anything specific?

"Just so people aren't surprised if I mentioned "only these people voted in this time period" and someone says "but you did"." - curious post considering mix would know joth is scum and will fakeclaim. kind of brazen if that's the case"

I have no clue. It's odd.

[faust]

Hey Eevee, want to vote raerae?

[jotheonah]

So raerae, and others who feel similarly, just for fun, let's pretend that I AM town (because, you know, I am). What do you think of my analysis? Who do you think is scum? Do you agree Eevee looks the worst of anyone on my wagon?

PPE: A novel by Eevee

What do you think about Mix's interactions with me before he got lynched? It would be easier for me to believe you were town if you weren't so  adamant about lynching me!

I don't completely understand the question.

[raerae]

So raerae, and others who feel similarly, just for fun, let's pretend that I AM town (because, you know, I am). What do you think of my analysis? Who do you think is scum? Do you agree Eevee looks the worst of anyone on my wagon?

PPE: A novel by Eevee

You white knighting me is weirding me out the most (selfish viewpoint, I know). I can't see any reason for scum joth to do it but nobody's called you out for it either so, like, was that some weird plan or am I just down too many rabbit holes with this thought process? I agree, Eevee looks shade-tastic but I don't trust you and I'm not sure it's any worse than Joseph's. I don't like LL's half claim, as town there's zero point to it if he ACTUALLY thinks you're scum, just vote and save yourself from being forced into a claim. As scum, maybe he's on your team and trying to distract while also wanting to be on your wagon in a worst case scenario. I don't think Space looks all that bad though but maybe that's mostly because they've done more than just vote. We do agree on Maxford though.

[Eevee]

So raerae, and others who feel similarly, just for fun, let's pretend that I AM town (because, you know, I am). What do you think of my analysis? Who do you think is scum? Do you agree Eevee looks the worst of anyone on my wagon?

PPE: A novel by Eevee

What do you think about Mix's interactions with me before he got lynched? It would be easier for me to believe you were town if you weren't so  adamant about lynching me!

I don't completely understand the question.

Mix pushed for my lynch when there was definitely a cloud of suspicion around me, probably two-ish votes . If I'm scum, he would have known it. Would he want to risk the wagon picking up more steam?

[raerae]

On my phone, gotta lazy quote this, how would MiX know joth would do anything specific?

"Just so people aren't surprised if I mentioned "only these people voted in this time period" and someone says "but you did"." - curious post considering mix would know joth is scum and will fakeclaim. kind of brazen if that's the case"

I have no clue. It's odd.

But you said it as though it were fact which is clearly isn't since the traitor doesn't have access to the scum QT.  So why do you believe MiX would know joth would fakeclaim?

[Eevee]

Hey Eevee, want to vote raerae?

Quickly reread her, and I'm sorry but I can not. No townread from me, but I don't want to reward making sensible points and good observations with a vote. I would note that raerae has been less sassy than I would expect, which could be scum wanting to avoid unnecessary fights. Or perhaps age and motherhood have mellowed her out. (NOT calling you old raerae, just older than when we previously played!)

[Eevee]

On my phone, gotta lazy quote this, how would MiX know joth would do anything specific?

"Just so people aren't surprised if I mentioned "only these people voted in this time period" and someone says "but you did"." - curious post considering mix would know joth is scum and will fakeclaim. kind of brazen if that's the case"

I have no clue. It's odd.

But you said it as though it were fact which is clearly isn't since the traitor doesn't have access to the scum QT.  So why do you believe MiX would know joth would fakeclaim?

Mix said that he jumped around the wagons to encourage joth to claim.

[raerae]

Hey Eevee, want to vote raerae?

Quickly reread her, and I'm sorry but I can not. No townread from me, but I don't want to reward making sensible points and good observations with a vote. I would note that raerae has been less sassy than I would expect, which could be scum wanting to avoid unnecessary fights. Or perhaps age and motherhood have mellowed her out. (NOT calling you old raerae, just older than when we previously played!)

I am incredibly old and very tired, fair points, no offense taken.

[Eevee]

""From one point I jump from joth to shraeye to joth to shraeye to joth to shraeye...in the VCA. I'm going to omit these hops, because that was me telling joth to claim PR."

[raerae]

On my phone, gotta lazy quote this, how would MiX know joth would do anything specific?

"Just so people aren't surprised if I mentioned "only these people voted in this time period" and someone says "but you did"." - curious post considering mix would know joth is scum and will fakeclaim. kind of brazen if that's the case"

I have no clue. It's odd.

But you said it as though it were fact which is clearly isn't since the traitor doesn't have access to the scum QT.  So why do you believe MiX would know joth would fakeclaim?

Mix said that he jumped around the wagons to encourage joth to claim.

Ahhhhh, gotcha.

[jotheonah]

So raerae, and others who feel similarly, just for fun, let's pretend that I AM town (because, you know, I am). What do you think of my analysis? Who do you think is scum? Do you agree Eevee looks the worst of anyone on my wagon?

PPE: A novel by Eevee

What do you think about Mix's interactions with me before he got lynched? It would be easier for me to believe you were town if you weren't so  adamant about lynching me!

I don't completely understand the question.

Mix pushed for my lynch when there was definitely a cloud of suspicion around me, probably two-ish votes . If I'm scum, he would have known it. Would he want to risk the wagon picking up more steam?

I agree that's points in your favor. But MiX is also savvy enough to mix it up and do some bussing precisely to throw up some dust when we do these sorts of analyses, so I don't think it's a slam-dunk.

[Eevee]

Agreed, fair.

Again, your insistence on me being scum makes me think you're more likely to be scum. I would say I'm the second leading lynching candidate right now, seems like pushing for my lynch would be very much in your best interest if you were scum. You were taunting me earlier! "Haa your plan from your scum QT isn't working, haa!" Like, I cannot fathom you'd be so sure about it if you were town. Myself, I'm waffling back and forth because the red flags for you being scum are large and numerous, but then again there are a couple towny things that give me pause. I think this has been one of my townier games in ages, so hard to believe you'd be that certain about it if you were really town. Because it's wrong too! Generally I think town is somewhat worried about being ashamed and lynching someone who was innocent and feeling bad. Gleefully calling someone scum when you can't reasonably know feels like a scum mindset (they are not trying to figure things out, they are pushing an agenda).

[jotheonah]

Agreed, fair.

Again, your insistence on me being scum makes me think you're more likely to be scum. I would say I'm the second leading lynching candidate right now, seems like pushing for my lynch would be very much in your best interest if you were scum. You were taunting me earlier! "Haa your plan from your scum QT isn't working, haa!" Like, I cannot fathom you'd be so sure about it if you were town. Myself, I'm waffling back and forth because the red flags for you being scum are large and numerous, but then again there are a couple towny things that give me pause. I think this has been one of my townier games in ages, so hard to believe you'd be that certain about it if you were really town. Because it's wrong too! Generally I think town is somewhat worried about being ashamed and lynching someone who was innocent and feeling bad. Gleefully calling someone scum when you can't reasonably know feels like a scum mindset (they are not trying to figure things out, they are pushing an agenda).

Idk what to say, man. Maybe I'm wrong and you are town. Or maybe you are scum who was excited about my mislynch but is now realizing how bad you look if I flip town, so you are trying to get me to change my reads before I die so that town won't look your way so hard come tomorrow. If that's the case, I wouldn't worry about it. Town rarely listens to dead town once they're no longer there to advocate. Case in point, shraeye went to his grave insisting on my towniness!

[jotheonah]

I am doing nothing right now that would be in my interest were I scum. You and faust are some of the most persuadable people to get off my wagon and maybe get another wagon going and instead of trying to persuade you I'm listing you as my top scumreads. That would be very poor play from scum!joth. But town!joth rteally just needs to be honest about his reads now, even though they aren't super-convenient.

[raerae]

Agreed, fair.

Again, your insistence on me being scum makes me think you're more likely to be scum. I would say I'm the second leading lynching candidate right now, seems like pushing for my lynch would be very much in your best interest if you were scum. You were taunting me earlier! "Haa your plan from your scum QT isn't working, haa!" Like, I cannot fathom you'd be so sure about it if you were town. Myself, I'm waffling back and forth because the red flags for you being scum are large and numerous, but then again there are a couple towny things that give me pause. I think this has been one of my townier games in ages, so hard to believe you'd be that certain about it if you were really town. Because it's wrong too! Generally I think town is somewhat worried about being ashamed and lynching someone who was innocent and feeling bad. Gleefully calling someone scum when you can't reasonably know feels like a scum mindset (they are not trying to figure things out, they are pushing an agenda).

Idk what to say, man. Maybe I'm wrong and you are town. Or maybe you are scum who was excited about my mislynch but is now realizing how bad you look if I flip town, so you are trying to get me to change my reads before I die so that town won't look your way so hard come tomorrow. If that's the case, I wouldn't worry about it. Town rarely listens to dead town once they're no longer there to advocate. Case in point, shraeye went to his grave insisting on my towniness!

To be fair to accuracy of dead town reads, he also said not to lynch MiX...

[faust]

Hey Eevee, want to vote raerae?

Quickly reread her, and I'm sorry but I can not. No townread from me, but I don't want to reward making sensible points and good observations with a vote. I would note that raerae has been less sassy than I would expect, which could be scum wanting to avoid unnecessary fights. Or perhaps age and motherhood have mellowed her out. (NOT calling you old raerae, just older than when we previously played!)

How comfortable are you with your joth vote after the MiX reread?

[faust]

I am doing nothing right now that would be in my interest were I scum. You and faust are some of the most persuadable people to get off my wagon and maybe get another wagon going and instead of trying to persuade you I'm listing you as my top scumreads. That would be very poor play from scum!joth. But town!joth rteally just needs to be honest about his reads now, even though they aren't super-convenient.

Actually, it would be convenient for scum!you to scumread me since I'm not one of the people you need to convince to not lynch you.

[Eevee]

I'm comfortable.

[SpaceAnemone]

Oh, Request prod on Raptor

It would be nice to get the perspective of an IC before we lynch the player who might guarantee his survival.

Give me the afternoon, Yesterday was holiday is the states and I was in the city with family. I had less time then I though.

I think we're stalling a bit waiting for you, so it would be great to have you back! Especially if you're willing to vote :-) Maxford is perhaps too new/nervous to hammer even if he is probably town. Galz is completely MIA, and hasn't checked in here in almost 5 IRL days. Joth's obviously not going to lynch himself, and faust seems firmly entrenched in his position... the rest of us are all just sitting here looking at Joth and waiting :-P

[Xxraptorslayer96]

Okay, I'm ready to vote Joth. Is that hammer? let me just type up my reads list really quick to make sure i get it in there.

Joth - anything else that you want us to know?

[Joseph2302]

Okay, I'm ready to vote Joth. Is that hammer? let me just type up my reads list really quick to make sure i get it in there.

Joth - anything else that you want us to know?

It would be the hammer, yes

[Galzria]

I'm working on my re-read post right now, would be cool not to have a hammer before I post.

Here's the deal though: I opened the day today saying I categorically would not vote for Joth until forced into a MyLo/LyLo situation. That was before he came out with any/all continuations of his claim that make it stupid freaking convenient for him not to die at night going forward, and his apparently abhorrent decision making in using his PR.

And damn, I'll admit as he came out with each piece, one at a time, all I wanted to do was vote him more and more. Everything about his claim fits a scum narrative - he could've claimed off potentially being RB'd every night until MiX died and flipped RB. Then all of a sudden he's 2-shot with both shots used? When there's just one person left he could conceivably protect (Raptor)? I mean? Really?

But hell - these are the things that really catch me. First, Joth's extended claim today is generally unprompted, and really, really messy. Scum!Joth knows exactly how ugly that all looks. He knows full well that this might just end up with his lynch today anyway. Why in the world would Scum!Joth just... not say anything? Ok, yes, leaving the thread at large to believe him to be a full Doctor means that every single day he wakes up alive he has a hell of a lot to answer for. But as scum himself in this scenario - he can choose to kill not!Raptor!town. This gives him an easy claim of having protected Raptor, and losing the WIFOM battle with scum. At the very least though, we almost never, ever lynch scum!Joth today if he's still believed to be a full Doctor. This buys him at minimum a day. And tomorrow? Who knows. Worst case for him is he gets lynched there instead of here.

This claim is just... so... not scum.

Further, man, look at MiX's voting history against Joth on D1! He casts the very first vote against Joth, and then after moving over to LL comes back to cast vote #4 against Joth. After Joseph moves to Raerae to bring Joth down to 3, MiX unvotes to drop it to 2. Space puts Joth back to 3 and MiX jumps right back on to put Joth up to 4 again. While he then immediately leaves the wagon to vote LL, then me, then LL, then Shraeye - he finds himself landing back onto Joth eventually, this time putting Joth up to 5. From there, he ends up moving to Shraeye (putting Shraeye at 4), and he's followed very quickly by WCD, Joth and Maxford to put Shraeye at 7. He immediately drops from the Shraeye wagon onto the only other viable wagon at the time - Joth, putting Joth up to 4, and dropping Shraeye to 6. Yeah, he goes from there to ADK (making 1 vote there, instead of going faust to put faust at 2, or Joseph to put Joseph at 2), but he immediately comes back to Joth. This really does solidify Joth/Shraeye as the only two viable lynches D1. Raerae and Eevee put Joth up to 6 votes, and MiX then moves to Shraeye (7), back to Joth (6) and finally to Shraeye (7).

The point is - MiX was ALL over Joth D1. And given the opportunity semi-late to create a different wagon on faust (2 with MiX's vote) or Joseph (2 with MiX's vote), he decided to continue with his voting pattern against Joth, putting Joth at 4 and Shraeye at 6.

I simply do not believe that Joth is MiX's partner, and I think it's a mistake to lynch him here.

[Joseph2302]

Joth, galz, faust, mix scum team maybe?
When joth flips scum, that's my theory for the scum tean

[Galzria]

Going through and making my own notes, looking over VC's, and coming to conclusions. This won't be short.

---------------------------------------

Why did MiX ask LaLight about his Scum Meta, and Eevee about his Town Meta? Was he insinuating that he knew LaLight was town, or trying to get Eevee to consider his town meta? - something he would want a scum buddy to be aware of and play to. Or is this just a noise post?

This post at least indicates that MiX was very well aware of, and thinking about, meta's in general. Yes, it's a response to Eevee - but MiX kinda kickstarted the whole conversation.

And then this is interesting to me. If Joth is town, which I know some of you are hesitant to believe, MiX suggests to know this - saying of Eevee "I thought you were joth with this post so town points". This points towards a Town Joth, and is somewhat odd to me that he would be congratulating Eevee on coming across townie.

This is not a very good vote.

Vote: Joseph

This is MiX's first context-less vote. His previous two (Shraeye, Raerae), while poor, still had context. The first was clearly RVS as he suggested Shraeye stop "no voting", and the second was a direct quote of Raerae, who had just voted Shraeye.

A few posts later and again MiX references his vote on Joseph with the same phraseology: "This is not a good vote" // "My current vote isn't good" - that's definitely striking in an off-but-intentional way. This would be my first real feeling towards a scum-partner tell, but this could also be MiX struggling with tipping people he knows to be town as town (see the point on Joth above, if you take it for what it appears to be). His choice of words with "but this time it's not my fault so it should stay" is also really strange to me.

This post could be nothing, or it could suggest that Eevee & LaLight are the same faction.

While this is a less relevant point to most of you, not knowing me to be town, this is another drop in the bucket of my theory that MiX struggles with dropping knowledge of town players.

This could be nothing, or this could be buddy prompting.

Another town player called out as town.

Four different occasions where MiX pushes the "Don't lynch Faust D1" line that Space presented originally. At some point, this gets a little out of hand, yeah?

This is what I would expect as "classic" signalling to a scum partner. "You know I'm a bad lynch" is only missing a "nudge-nudge-wink-wink" at the end.

It's almost like MiX knew both the Joth & Shraeye wagons were against town and he was already looking for a scapegoat...

-----

This post from D2 makes me hesitant to believe that there are 2 of 3 Mafia (discounting Traitor here) on the Shraeye wagon from D1. MiX already knew that he himself was scum, and it was then public knowledge that ADK & WCD were town. While it's true MiX's reads and opinions are like a bag in the wind, I just am not sure he would be directing town to look for scum amongst {MiX, faust, Joseph, Maxford, Eevee, Joth} if he knew that 3 (including himself) were actually scum.

OTOH - When that post was made he was voting for Space, and subsequently moved to LL - so like I said, what MiX says in one breath doesn't always reflect what he's gonna do in the next!

--------------------------------------------------

Game Votes through D2:

Galz - Raptor (1)
MiX - Shraeye (1)
LaLight - Joseph (1)
Joseph - Space (1)
RaeRae - Shraeye (2)
MiX - Raerae (1) (Shraeye (1))
MiX - Joseph (2) (RaeRae (0))
ADK - Joseph (3)
Space - WCD (1)
ADK - Shraeye (2) (Joseph (2))
faust - ADK (1)
Eevee - LL (1)
Joth - WCD (2)
WCD - Joseph (3)
Joseph - WCD (3)
RaeRae - ADK (2) (Shraeye (1))
Eevee - RaeRae (1) (LL (0))
MiX - Raptor (2) (Joseph (2))
Joth - ADK (3) (WCD (2))
MiX - Joth (1) (Raptor (1))
LaLight - Joth (2) (Joseph (1))
Space - Raptor (2) (WCD (1))
WCD - MiX (1) (Joseph (0))
MiX - LL (1) (Joth (1))
Raptor - Galz (1)
Galz - Space (1) (Raptor (1))
Eevee - Joth (2) (Raerae (0))
Joth - Space (2) (ADK (2))
Joseph - Joth (3) (WCD (0))
MiX - Joth (4) (LL (0))
Joth - ADK (3) - (Space (1))
Shraeye - ADK (4)
RaeRae - Eevee (1) (ADK (3))
Joseph - RaeRae (1) (Joth (3))
LaLight - ADK (4) (Joth (2))
Shraeye - Joseph (1) (ADK (3))
Eevee - Joseph (2) (Joth (1))
Shraeye - ADK (4) (Joseph (1))
Raptor - Joseph (2) (Galz (0))
Galz - Joth (2) (Space (0))
faust - Joth (3) (ADK (3))
Joth - MiX (2) (ADK (2))
MiX - Unvote (Joth (2))
Joth - Unvote (MiX (1))
Maxford - Space (1)
Joth - faust (1)
MiX - Raptor (2)
Space - Joth (3) (Raptor (1))
faust - Raptor (2) (Joth (2))
LaLight - Joth (3) (ADK (1))
MiX - Joth (4) (Raptor (1))
MiX - LL (1) (Joth (3))
Joth - Galz (1) (faust (0))
MiX - Galz (2) (LL (0))
WCD - Galz (3) (MiX (0))
Joseph - MiX (1) (Raerae (0))
WCD - MiX (2) (Galz (2))
Joth - Eevee (2) (Galz (1))
Shraeye - Joth (4) (ADK (0))
faust - Shraeye (2) (Raptor (0))
MiX - LL (1) (Galz (0))
Joth - Joseph (3) (Eevee (1))
MiX - Shraeye (3) (LL (0))
MiX - Joth (5) (Shraeye (2))
Shraeye - faust (1) (Joth (4))
Joseph - Shraeye (3) (MiX (1))
Maxford - Unvote (Space (0))
Raptor - Unvote (Joseph (2))
MiX - Shraeye (4) (Joth (3))
WCD - Shraeye (5) (MiX (0))
Joth - Shraeye (6) (Joseph (1))
Maxford - Shraeye (7)
MiX - Joth (4) (Shraeye (6))
MiX - ADK (1) (Joth (3))
MiX - Joth (4) (ADK (0))
Raerae - Joth (5) (Eevee (0))
Eevee - Joth (6) (Joseph (0))
MiX - Shraeye (7) (Joth (5))
MiX - Joth (6) (Shraeye (6))
MiX - Shraeye (7) (Joth (5))
Raptor - Joth (6)
Eevee - Shraeye (8) (Joth (5))
-------------------------------
MiX - faust (1)
ADK - Joseph (1)
Eevee - faust (2)
MiX - Space (1) (faust (1))
Maxford - faust (2)
Space - MiX (1)
Joseph - MiX (2)
Joseph - Joth (1) (MiX (1))
LaLight - Joth (2)
faust - Eevee (1)
Joth - Eevee (2)
MiX - LaLight (1) (Space (0))
Raerae - MiX (2)
Joth - MiX (3) (Eevee (1))
MiX - Eevee (2) (LaLight (0))
Joth - Eevee (3) (MiX (2))
Joth - Joseph (2) (Eevee (2))
Joth - Eevee (3) (Joseph (1))
Joseph - Galz (1) (Joth (1))
faust - LaLight (1) (Eevee (2))
Raptor - MiX (3)
MiX - Raptor (1) (Eevee (1))
Eevee - MiX (4) (faust (1))
faust - MiX (5) (LaLight (0))
Joseph - MiX (6) (Galz (0))
MiX - MiX (7) (Raptor (0))

--------------------

For actual VCA's - Well, like I said, I believe that Joth is town. I'm also as certain as I could possibly be that Raptor is town. So I'm quite simply going to work from that. Feel free to disagree with either opinion - but this is what I believe to be true.

VC 1.1 - Either Maxford is scum, or all 4 scum are currently voting. It's also worth noting that at least 4 of the 6 wagons are on town players. In any case, at this early point the most scum clumping that there can be is two scum on one wagon.

EoD1 - So the pools I'm down to on each wagon are from Shraeye {faust, Joseph, Maxford, Eevee}, and from Joth {Space, LaLight, Raerae}. I do not believe Shraeye was anything close to scummy enough D1 to warrant an entire town wagon (plus MiX) to secure his lynch. That is to say, I do not believe the entire Mafia team was on Joth. Whether it's 2 Mafia on Shraeye or 2 Mafia on Joth though, I'm honestly not sure. My gut says that there were 2 on Shraeye and 1 on Joth - but then the pool on Shraeye is bigger, so that's not really saying much.

Based on my reread of MiX though, I think I'm most comfortable voting for faust here.

The biggest two things for me are:

- MiX's considerable effort to present this idea that faust is untouchable. He didn't go out of his way to make big arguments about it, but he kept hammering away at it, almost trying to ingrain it in the subconscious of everyone else.
- I think MiX was attempting to signal faust in #452:

Also, don*t leave the wagon, I need a backup plan for if the shraeye thing fails.

Ew. You know I'm a bad lynch, this is silly.

I haven't reread enough to unvote joth, but I don't really want to be there either...

More than that, like I said D2, I don't really believe that the first 5 people on the EoD lynch of Shraeye are town - it isn't a common occurrence in general, and I don't think Shraeye was scummy enough to justify 5 town piling on like that to drive the lynch without scum help. I scum read faust off the MiX reread more than I do Joseph, so that's kinda where I'm at with that.

However, my other take-aways are that I do feel like MiX was coaching and prodding Maxford at various points in D1. I think Maxford being new to forum Mafia show through in some of his hesitancy in general - but I feel like it's been a step beyond just that. I'm not convinced that all four scum were in fact voting in VC 1.1.

Beyond my reads on faust and Maxford... I'm leaning town on Eevee. I'm very null/scummy on Space & LaLight. Raerae is an absolute, complete, 100% enigma and Joseph... is either town, or MiX did a good job with him.

So yeah. Lynching Joth is bad. Lynch faust instead.

vote: faust