Dominion Strategy Forum

Dominion => Dominion General Discussion => Topic started by: yed on October 18, 2013, 09:59:18 am

Title: Not hitting 5 with Silver-Silver opening
Post by: yed on October 18, 2013, 09:59:18 am
How probable is not hitting 5 turn 3 or 4 with Silver-Silver opening.

Anyone calculated this before? I'm too lazy to do it myself.
Title: Re: Not hitting 5 with Silver-Silver opening
Post by: Polk5440 on October 18, 2013, 11:51:46 am
I get 5.05%. (not totally confident, though) -- wait not quite.... missed a 2. Recalculating....

Let's try 8.83%

The only shuffles that give you less than $5 on both turns 3 and 4 are:

CCCCE CCCEE SS
CCCCE CCSEE CS
CCCEE CCCCE SS
CCSEE CCCCE CS

(order doesn't matter in each hand).

2*[5*10*7*6*5*4*3*3*2*1*2*1*2*1+2*5*30*7*6*5*4*3*3*2*2*2*1*1*1]/[12!] = 8.83%

There are two ways of ordering CS, 5 ways of ordering CCCCE, 10 ways of ordering CCCEE, 30 ways of ordering CCSEE, and the last two shuffles are probabilistically the same as the first two, so just double the counting. I think this is it.
Title: Re: Not hitting 5 with Silver-Silver opening
Post by: jonts26 on October 18, 2013, 11:58:18 am
It's 91.2% likely that you hit $5 I believe. Not counting cards which mess up turns 1/2.
Title: Re: Not hitting 5 with Silver-Silver opening
Post by: Polk5440 on October 18, 2013, 12:03:10 pm
It's 91.2% likely that you hit $5 I believe. Not counting cards which mess up turns 1/2.

Oh, good. You got my answer, too!
Title: Re: Not hitting 5 with Silver-Silver opening
Post by: jonts26 on October 18, 2013, 12:12:22 pm
Here's the old blog post that discusses opening probabilities.

http://dominionstrategy.com/2011/03/09/basic-opening-probabilities/
Title: Re: Not hitting 5 with Silver-Silver opening
Post by: dondon151 on October 18, 2013, 02:09:50 pm
An easy fraction to remember is 1/12, though it's not exactly the right probability, but it's close enough.
Title: Re: Not hitting 5 with Silver-Silver opening
Post by: GendoIkari on October 18, 2013, 02:23:23 pm
An easy fraction to remember is 1/12, though it's not exactly the right probability, but it's close enough.

Pi is 22/7!
Title: Re: Not hitting 5 with Silver-Silver opening
Post by: michaeljb on October 18, 2013, 02:42:40 pm
e^pi - pi = 20
Title: Re: Not hitting 5 with Silver-Silver opening
Post by: flies on October 18, 2013, 02:53:32 pm
An easy fraction to remember is 1/12, though it's not exactly the right probability, but it's close enough.

Pi is 22/7!
This has been proven false recently: http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendlyatheist/2013/09/16/chemical-engineering-student-i-used-physics-to-prove-gay-marriage-wrong/
Title: Re: Not hitting 5 with Silver-Silver opening
Post by: flies on October 18, 2013, 02:54:50 pm
also, further off topic, the sum of all natural numbers is -1/12 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1_%2B_2_%2B_3_%2B_4_%2B_%C2%B7_%C2%B7_%C2%B7
Title: Re: Not hitting 5 with Silver-Silver opening
Post by: Polk5440 on October 18, 2013, 03:01:52 pm
pi^4 + pi^5 = e^6 is a neat mathematical coincidence (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_coincidence).
Title: Re: Not hitting 5 with Silver-Silver opening
Post by: LastFootnote on October 18, 2013, 03:05:33 pm
An easy fraction to remember is 1/12, though it's not exactly the right probability, but it's close enough.

Pi is 22/7!

Failure is just success rounded down. (http://www.qwantz.com/index.php?comic=955)
Title: Re: Not hitting 5 with Silver-Silver opening
Post by: qmech on October 18, 2013, 03:14:55 pm
An easy fraction to remember is 1/12, though it's not exactly the right probability, but it's close enough.

Pi is 22/7!

Failure is just success rounded down. (http://www.qwantz.com/index.php?comic=955)

Pi rounded down is 333/106.
Title: Re: Not hitting 5 with Silver-Silver opening
Post by: eHalcyon on October 18, 2013, 06:04:58 pm
An easy fraction to remember is 1/12, though it's not exactly the right probability, but it's close enough.

Pi is 22/7!
This has been proven false recently: http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendlyatheist/2013/09/16/chemical-engineering-student-i-used-physics-to-prove-gay-marriage-wrong/

I just... what?
Title: Re: Not hitting 5 with Silver-Silver opening
Post by: jaybeez on October 18, 2013, 07:26:31 pm
An easy fraction to remember is 1/12, though it's not exactly the right probability, but it's close enough.

Pi is 22/7!
This has been proven false recently: http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendlyatheist/2013/09/16/chemical-engineering-student-i-used-physics-to-prove-gay-marriage-wrong/
HELLO AND greatings to you SIR

I am Chibuihem Amalaha scientist from University LAGOS, Nigeria.  I have discovered incredible proof that gay marriage is scientifically Wrong.  But the gay anti-scientists in control of Western Governments are prevented me from publish amazing findings!!!

Please, I need your bank account information so I may wire US$1MM dollars to you so I can pay for publication of my papers.  I will then share 10% of Nobel prize money with you!!!!

Sincerely yours truly,
Dr. Amalaha
Title: Re: Not hitting 5 with Silver-Silver opening
Post by: Grujah on October 18, 2013, 08:09:56 pm
An easy fraction to remember is 1/12, though it's not exactly the right probability, but it's close enough.

Pi is 22/7!

Pi is wrong, anyway. (http://tauday.com/tau-manifesto)
Title: Re: Not hitting 5 with Silver-Silver opening
Post by: WanderingWinder on October 18, 2013, 08:17:01 pm
An easy fraction to remember is 1/12, though it's not exactly the right probability, but it's close enough.

Pi is 22/7!

Pi is wrong, anyway. (http://tauday.com/tau-manifesto)
Pi is exactly 3 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-Y-ua3WBi4)
Title: Re: Not hitting 5 with Silver-Silver opening
Post by: soulnet on October 18, 2013, 11:59:09 pm
Pi is exactly 3 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-Y-ua3WBi4)

"And he made a molten sea, ten cubits from the one rim to the other it was round all about, and a line of thirty cubits did compass it round about."
Title: Re: Not hitting 5 with Silver-Silver opening
Post by: GwinnR on October 19, 2013, 02:23:59 am
An easy fraction to remember is 1/12, though it's not exactly the right probability, but it's close enough.

Pi is 22/7!

Pi is wrong, anyway. (http://tauday.com/tau-manifesto)
Pi is exactly 3 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-Y-ua3WBi4)
No, it is exactly 3.2! (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana_Pi_Bill)