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[Captain_Frisk]

Is it ok if someone from outside the game gives me a +1?  I'm going to reference another thread... and say that the Ruination 10th year anniversary is some good stuff.

Protip: 22oz of 10.8% beer is way more than you expect.

[Captain_Frisk]

All right - looks like pops left me alone here.  I'm going to sign off - I probably won't be around much tomorrow.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

So, Jo's been gone for a while now. Guess it's a little different to be at L-1 when it isn't your own vote that put you there.

@Jo - Can you answer my question at 2831 please?

@Robz and Tables - Can you both answer my question at 2832 please?

[Captain_Frisk]

@SFS - Can you answer my question from #2833?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I'm going to wait and hear from the folks I addressed questions to.

Since you're here - will you answer mine?

Frisk, I'm (almost) always logged on, so the green light being lit doesn't mean I'm really here.

To some extent, the questions were just to generate responses that I could look at tomorrow, but I realize I will likely not be alive tomorrow - it's getting down to crunch time.  I do have some concerns about you (in fact, I now have concerns about everyone other than me).  I'll likely detail those in a post soon.  (no promises)

I was also waiting to see if someone else would hammer.  Given my constant railing against Jo, it seemed logical to me that scum/mafia would expect me to jump on the opportunity to finally be rid of him. I think this is true whether he is town or mafia.  Letting me hammer seems to cloud the "was he bussed" analysis. Also, given all of my "let's get rid of Jo" talk, I knew I was putting myself under at least a little scrutiny by waiting, but I wanted more data.  (I'm fully expecting the once-per-RL-week occurrence of "I'm still not sure SFS is in the clear" comment from someone tomorrow).  And I still may hammer, because I see value in Jo being gone, though less value than him being gone on D1.  The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago.  The next best time is now.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

*than him being gone on D1. -fixed it

[Captain_Frisk]

@SFS - I responded 2 minutes after your post - so it was reasonable to expect you to possibly still be here.  My question on #2833 - which you still haven't answered is:

You've implied that I'm a better kill target than Axxle.  I'd like to understand why.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

OK, so here's where I'm at (sorry for the stream of consciousness):

A lot of little things are nagging at me. Some of them are just things that hit me wrong, which is a dangerous judgement to make without the benefit of tone.  Other things are simple inconsistencies.   Since this is my first game ever, I don't know if the little inconsistencies are mafia slips, or folks operating with the same sense of "freedom" that being Town gives me.  In no particular order:

1) The parallel posts in 2823 and 2824 from the wundertwins seems forced/contrived, as if to further advance the twinclaim.  Especially the mirror of "nope this is stupid" with "this is silly".

2) Dsell preferring to shoot Frisk over Axxle2.  I have more inconsistencies noted for Frisk than Axxle2, but my feeling is that Axxle has posted very little (I'm not necessarily referring to postcount), so for me that equates to lurking, which feels scummy.  If Dsell is mafia, then he'd obviously want us to shoot Town (before dying tomorrow for being a liar), hoping that the results of the night are 3 more non-mafia dead.  But if he's town, I think I agree with his preference of Frisk over Axxle2 to die.

3) Frisk, in 1796, asserted that he wanted to hammer Jo "on principal" [sic], but he was not willing to hammer by Iphone. (It seemed weird to sacrifice principle over the type of voting machinery, but whatever).  Yet in 2814, Frisk expresses willingness to unvote by phone.  Interestingly, the original inaction helped Jo.  The action of unvoting (if taken) would help Jo.  And the tagline in 2814 ("someone cop claims i guess?") just feels like coaching (or concealed rolefishing) to me.

4) Pops being so inscrutable/unhelpful feels non-town to me in general.  It mimics O, but that is guilt by association.And you all have made it clear that that's just Pops being Pops.  Folks thought my early posting was unhelpful too.

5) Pops very early (and adamant) defense of me (371) was strange.  Our later tete a tete about the issue didn't leave me feeling any better.  If he's town, he's not done a good job of answering questions from someone he's convinced is town.  If he's mafia, he's done a good job of helping me ascribe that unwillingness to help to something akin to benign neglect of a lesser/newer player, rather than evidence of mafia play.  Which worries me.

6) Robz has started worrying me a little. He changes his mind a lot, after making good cases against people, and now seems to want to move pretty quickly through all the design, build, and sell stages of this current deal.  Maybe that just means Axxle has written something that stuck with me (2803).  Though maybe Axxle was just parroting Jo in 2802.

There are other examples, but I'm really tired of going over the thread for documentation purposes.  I don't know that I will pass on the deal of lynch Jo, shoot Axxle just because I might slightly favor the second part being shoot Frisk rather than Axxle, but I need to think a bit more, because this feels like voting for two people with one vote.

[Tables]

Robz and Tables:  Do both of you believe Axxle is a better choice to shoot than Frisk?  If so, why?

Yes. I have something of a townread on Frisk: His refusal to hammer O, who was a shoe-in lynch by that point, would be a terrible move as mafia, both in terms of coming under scrutiny today AND letting the day linger on. That single point was more or less the only suspicious thing I've noted him doing, while Axxle has always been unnotable and brief, and so I'd certainly put him above Frisk.

[Captain_Frisk]

3) Frisk, in 1796, asserted that he wanted to hammer Jo "on principal" [sic], but he was not willing to hammer by Iphone. (It seemed weird to sacrifice principle over the type of voting machinery, but whatever).  Yet in 2814, Frisk expresses willingness to unvote by phone.  Interestingly, the original inaction helped Jo.  The action of unvoting (if taken) would help Jo.  And the tagline in 2814 ("someone cop claims i guess?") just feels like coaching (or concealed rolefishing) to me.

Can't help misspelling on the iphone - but man is that embarrassing.  In my mind - the difference between hammering via iphone (where I might have misread something etc. because I was skimming while walking around a store or while trying to keep my son from jumping down the stairs) - and unvoting - is that killing someone is a pretty big decision - and I really want to be able to search back - look at everyone's posts etc.

Unvoting is significantly less risky - so if (for example) Pops was to come out with a rolecop claim and say that for sure 100% Jonah is the Doctor - I would unvote without hesitation.  The fact that I had the phone handy made me comfortable leaving an early vote on.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

@SFS - I responded 2 minutes after your post - so it was reasonable to expect you to possibly still be here.  My question on #2833 - which you still haven't answered is:

You've implied that I'm a better kill target than Axxle.  I'd like to understand why.

Frisk - Sorry, 2879 was intended to be my answer to your question. Let me clarify. At the time I asked the two questions that seemed to point to you over Axxle2, I was mostly data collecting. Since then, I've realized that I may actually have a slight preference for you over Axxle to be shot, and have posted why in 2882.

Also, I agree you had every right to assume I was still on two minutes after the post you reference, especially since I often let the group know when I'm gone for the night.  This morning, when I re-read my last post from last night, I realized it didn't carry the "I'm done for today" message I was feeling at the time.

[Captain_Frisk]

And the tagline in 2814 ("someone cop claims i guess?") just feels like coaching (or concealed rolefishing) to me.

I love how even innocent remarks are mafia tells!  I was trying to think of what circumstances I would unvote.  J has already roleclaimed VT - so I think I'd lynch him no matter what he said.  The only thing I could think of would be if someone had some night 2 investigation results.

As to your scumtells:

1.  I'm not really sure how one rolefishes in a concealed manner.  If someone knows that J is innocent - then I want to know so that I don't lynch him.  If I'm mafia - then I don't want anyone to claim - so that he dies.  I would reveal if I was a cop and had investigated J - that would potentially clear 4 of us (SFS, Tables, Me, J) - which gives us great odds on scum hunting and killing.

2.  If I'm coaching (as mafia) who am I coaching to?  Presumably I would only want my partner to falseclaim cop get Jonah off the hook.  If I'm mafia - and my partner is Jonah - then well clearly that isn't going to work.  If I'm mafia - and my partner is someone else - well then Jonah isn't mafia and we've successfully lynched town - so again I wouldn't be coaching my partner to copclaim.

Sorry to jump on you - I just don't understand your logic - and if you're going to push for a me execution over Axxle - i want to at least understand why.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

And the tagline in 2814 ("someone cop claims i guess?") just feels like coaching (or concealed rolefishing) to me.

I love how even innocent remarks are mafia tells!  I was trying to think of what circumstances I would unvote.  J has already roleclaimed VT - so I think I'd lynch him no matter what he said.  The only thing I could think of would be if someone had some night 2 investigation results.

As to your scumtells:

1.  I'm not really sure how one rolefishes in a concealed manner.  If someone knows that J is innocent - then I want to know so that I don't lynch him.  If I'm mafia - then I don't want anyone to claim - so that he dies.  I would reveal if I was a cop and had investigated J - that would potentially clear 4 of us (SFS, Tables, Me, J) - which gives us great odds on scum hunting and killing.

2.  If I'm coaching (as mafia) who am I coaching to?  Presumably I would only want my partner to falseclaim cop get Jonah off the hook.  If I'm mafia - and my partner is Jonah - then well clearly that isn't going to work.  If I'm mafia - and my partner is someone else - well then Jonah isn't mafia and we've successfully lynched town - so again I wouldn't be coaching my partner to copclaim.

Sorry to jump on you - I just don't understand your logic - and if you're going to push for a me execution over Axxle - i want to at least understand why.

I don't at all feel jumped on, so you're good.  And many of the things I say "hit me wrong" could just be me reacting in the moment, which is why I've tried to slow down a bit since D1.  Also, "thinly veiled" would have been a better adjective to precede "rolefishing".

Having said all that, you make excellent points here, so I'm feeling better about you.  I do note that you did not vote for O, which seems to indicate you missed an opportunity to take some valuable cover.

This is not the discussion I was hoping for when I asked the questions that prompted your concerns, but it has had value, so thanks for that. I accept Axxle as the night target for Dsell.

@Dsell - It is my understanding that you will kill Axxle2 tonight.  So I hammer Jo with that specific secondary objective being understood.

VOTE: JOTHEONAH

I'm still concerned with what we do if Axxle2 doesnt die tonight, but that likely will not be my problem tomorrow.

[Captain_Frisk]

That is the hammer?  Volt - will there be extended twilight, or will you be posting the flip soon just so I can enjoy the rest of my 4th without phone refreshing to see what happened?

[Voltgloss]

Nine Estate dwellers gathered in the Mine's central chamber, having spent an exhausting day plumbing its depths.  But none had found an exit from the Estate grounds - or the elusive portcullis key.

The conversation shifted to everyone's favorite topic:  who to kill.  The early frontrunner was Dsell, up until he explained he had a Woodcutter's axe back in his room and was happy to use it how the dwellers saw fit.  In response, the dwellers worked on a team-agreed plan for the upcoming bloodlettings. 

Finally, jotheonah stood up to read out what had been approved, finishing:  "...and today, everybody kills me." 

He stopped and squinted at his notes.  "Wait, is that right?"

Any further commentary was silenced when Axxle, Robz, Captain Frisk, and Tables set upon him with Miners' pickaxes.  SwitchedFromStarcraft delivered the coup de grace with a conveniently head-sized boulder.

When the dust settled, they took jotheonah's key and visited his room.  Inside, they found a collection of tomes on the fine art of scumhunting.  Unfortunately, they all gave conflicting advice, which perhaps explained a bit of jotheonah's bizarre behavior over the past few days.  But the final conclusion was indisputable:  jotheonah was a Vanilla Townie.

Vote Count 3-16

Axxle (2): popsofctown, jotheonah
jotheonah (5): Axxle, Robz888, Captain_Frisk, Tables, SwitchedFromStarcraft

Not voting {2}: Glooble, Dsell

jotheonah has been lynched.  He was a Vanilla Townie.

Night 3 has begun.  Commands are due in 48 hours, by 10:59 a.m. EDT, Friday, July 6.

If I receive all commands before the deadline, Night 3 may start early.  I will check at 8 a.m. Thursday, 8 p.m. Thursday, and 8 a.m. Friday (all EDT).  If I have not received all commands by 8 a.m. Friday, the actual start of Day 4 may be delayed until Friday evening.

This thread is now LOCKED.

[Voltgloss]

Anticipating his death, Axxle rose from his bed in the middle of the night and made his way to the Estate Library.  In his hand, a bottle of the Cellar's finest wine.  If he was going to meet his maker tonight, he was going to do it on his terms:  with a good book in hand... and rip-roaring drunk.

Dawn broke.  The surviving Estate dwellers fanned out, looking for the anticipated corpse of Axxle and wondering what ingenious slaying method had been used upon him.  When Robz reached the Library, he was almost disappointed to see a simple poisoning - Axxle slumped forward in his chair, an empty wine goblet in front of him, and a book dropped below his hand ("When Point Counters Attack"). 

Robz gathered the other survivors and they began to search Axxle to learn his true identity.  pops was just taking off Axxle's boot whenBAM

pops fell back, stunned, rubbing his forehead from Axxle's kick.  Axxle blinked incredulously at those around him, and at the daylight.  "Izz... izz it dawn?  I'm alive?"  A broad grin broke out on his face.  "I'm ALIVE!!"  And Axxle leapt out of his chair and promptly crashed in a tangled, aching pile of joints and pain.  Because, y'know, rip-roaring drunk.

Glooble broke the silence.  "Well, if Axxle's not dead... then who is?"  He quickly counted those present.  Frowned.  Then counted again.

Tables came to the same conclusion, sighed, and started to set out eight wine goblets.  They were going to need a lot of it in front of them to figure out THIS day.

No one died during the night.

Day 4 Start!

Not voting {8}: Dsell, Robz888, Captain_Frisk, Glooble, popsofctown, Tables, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Axxle

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Friday, July 20, at 7:59 a.m. EDT

This thread is now UNLOCKED.

[Glooble]

Ok. If DSell was mafia, he might have decided to target someone other than Axxle, then had that person be protected, but then the SK kill should have gone off.

If DSell really was town Vig, the mafia might have roleblocked him, but then at least one of the SK or mafia kills should have gone through.

Might we have both a one-shot protective role and a real protective role? That seems too powerful for this town.

I'm super confused right now.

[Glooble]

I hate that I'm probably going to be at work before anyone else weighs in.  Something just occurred to me, though. Mafia and SK might have targeted the same person, and been blocked by a town protective role.

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm super confused right now.

Also confused. 

Any scenarios I can come up involve lucky town PRs.

Questions:

@DSell - Did you target Axxle2 with your alleged shot?  If not - why did you lie to us?

@Axxle2 - Why did you vote for the Jo lynch - knowing that the plan would involve shooting yourself?

[Captain_Frisk]

I hate that I'm probably going to be at work before anyone else weighs in.  Something just occurred to me, though. Mafia and SK might have targeted the same person, and been blocked by a town protective role.

I think this scenario works only if the protective role is jailkeeper.

@Voltgloss - Can you confirm the behavior of simultaneous targeting of Doctor, Vig / Serial Killer and Mafia? 

[Voltgloss]

@Voltgloss - Can you confirm the behavior of simultaneous targeting of Doctor, Vig / Serial Killer and Mafia?

Chaplain {Doctor} and Moat Builder {One-Shot Doctor} both protect their target from one nightkill.  So if one Doctor role protects Player X, and Player X gets targeted by two nightkilling roles, then Player X is still going to die (absent any other interference).  The Doctor protection stops one and only one of the nightkills; the "extra" nightkill goes through after the Doctor protection resolves.

If two Doctor roles protect Player X, and two nightkilling roles target Player X, then Player X survives.  Each of the two Doctors prevents one of the two nightkills.

[Glooble]

Didn't know that. Scratch that theory.

[Glooble]

Well, not totally scratch, but its less likely.

[Glooble]

I just looked over the role PMs at the beginning of the thread, and it doesn't say anything about the roleblockers protecting their targets from night kills. It looks like they block their roles, and that's it. Volt, confirm?

[Captain_Frisk]

Well, not totally scratch, but its less likely.

The problem with this theory is that either:

1. DSell is lying and didn't target Axxle2.
2. The town jailkeeper targeted Axxle2 - which seems less than intelligent.
3. Multiple night killers targeted Axxle2 - Axxle2 was bulletproof / doctored (?!?!) and the other killer was jailkept / roleblocked.