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[Eevee]

How about worst-case analysis if Eevee ends up town?

We still don't really know anything, and lose.  :\

We won't lose with one mislynch.  Is it really true that we won't know anything more?

If there was something to know, I should know it already. I'm not arguing any specific scenario because I don't have a clue.

[silverspawn]

if eevee fips town, you basically have to assume that I'm scum or SK, because the scenario with JK!me and town!Eevee is so unlikely, which  means you'll lynch me, which means we just lose horrifically.

which is okay, it's only a 5% chance

[Eevee]

which is sad and depressing, it's a 100% chance

[2.71828.....]

Vote Count 3.2
 
Eevee (1): silverspawn
silverspawn (3): Eevee, Jimmmmm, faust

Not Voting (4): Ichimaru, ashersky, jotheonah, witherweaver

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.  The deadline for Day 3 will be Friday, October 27 at 5 pm forum time.

e, if someone targeted a jailkept player with an investigative action, would they get a result?

Results will be given according to the rules laid out by yuma.

[ashersky]

To joth's question, commuting happens first, the Jailkeeper would fail.

[ashersky]

I skimmed, need tore read at computer.  Will do in an hour or so.

[ashersky]

Here's what I'm thinking.

Ichi was the first person to actually claim a PR. If he is scum, then the add on is Traitor Knows Mafia/SK.
If this is the case, then it's reasonable to assume that Ichi is the Traitor, since he would then have the most information and be in the best position to make a logical claim.
If Ichi was the Traitor, then he would know that we have either Column 3 or Row 3.
If we have Column 3, Psychologist is a believable claim since from a Neutral point of view with the other claims, we could have Row 4.
But if we have Row 3, there is in fact no logical fake claim, and a Psychologist claim would quickly be found out against the three real claims.

If he was instead the SK, he would know we have either Column 2, Column 3 or Row 1. This would make Psychologist a reasonable claim for scum trying to mess up ICs, but not so good for a SK trying to stay alive.

So if Ichi is scum then he didn't have enough information to know that his claim wouldn't immediately be caught out.

If, on the other hand, silver is scum and knew that the Mafia knew the Traitor, then he'd know we have either Row 4 or Column 2, neither of which would immediately out a fakeclaimed JK.

In summary, Ichi didn't have enough information to make a safe (at least safe enough to not be immediately outed) fakeclaim, while silver did.

Vote: silverspawn

Catching up and will reply to some as I go.  I like this type of thinking.  I think we have to do it from each claimant's point of view, as such:

1.  Claimant is Mafia Goon -- would/could they fakeclaim what they did at the time they did?
2.  Claimant is Mafia Traitor -- would/could they fakeclaim what they did at the time they did?
3.  Claimaint is SK -- would/could they fakeclaim what they did at the time they did?

The possible answers to these three scenarios should shed some light.  Jimmmmm did this above for Ichi mostly.

[ashersky]

So, we have the following:

1.  Ichimaru Gin claims Psychologist.  This is the first claim of the game (not counting silver's VT fakeclaim).
2.  Jotheonah claims non-BP PR.
3.  Jimmmmm claims non-BP PR.
4.  Silverspawn claims non-BP PR, admitting to having lied in the beginning.
5.  Silverspawn claims Jailkeeper.
6.  Jimmmmm claims 1-Shot Commuter.
7.  Jotheonah claims Detective.

That's the order of actions, so we can assume that at least the steps before each claim could inform each claim.  From there, we need to do some breakdowns.

[ashersky]

Ichimaru Gin's Psychologist claim

All analysis is done with the assumption that the claim is a lie.  We are trying to find sensibility in the choice of fake claim.  We will do this for all four claimants.

Assumption #1: a fakeclaim would be for survival, not drawing out a counterclaim.
Assumption #2: therefore, a fakeclaim would be a role that could not be counterclaimed.

1. Detective, 1-shot Commuter, Goon Cop; 1-shot Investigation Immune + Serial Killer
2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
3. 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
4. 1-shot BP Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
5. Watcher, 1-shot BP Townie, 1-shot BP Commuter; 2-shot JOAT
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer
8. Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune

The green setups are ones in which a Psychologist exists.  We have to assume that Ichimaru Gin knew the game we are playing is NOT one of these.  All "Mafia Knows Traitor (MKT)" setups are in green.  In #3 and #7, "Traitor Knows Mafia (TKM)."

If Ichimaru Gin is mafia, and he decided to fakeclaim Psychologist, it appears most sensible that he would do this as a Traitor in a TKM setup, because in all cases, he knows Psychologist is a safeclaim.  As a Mafia Goon in a MTK setup, there is a 100% chance that a real Psychologist is in the game, so he doesn't fakeclaim Psychologist.  As a Mafia Goon that does NOT know the Traitor, that's six possible setups, with him knowing he's in a set of two {1 or 8}, {2 or 5}, or {3 or 7}.  If he's in the third set, he knows Psychologist is a safeclaim; in the other two sets, it's a 50% chance, so there are better choices.  If he's a Traitor who does NOT know Mafia, he is basically playing blind, as he has no setup information.  In that case, VT has to be the safest claim.

If Ichimaru Gin is a Serial Killer, he knows the setup is one of {1, 4, 6, 8}.  That's a 75% chance a Psychologist exists.

So, if Ichimaru Gin is...

a Mafia Goon in an MTK setup -- he does NOT fakeclaim Psychologist
a Mafia Goon in an non-MTK setup -- he has only a 33% chance of being in a setup where Psychologist is a safe fakeclaim
a Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup -- Psychologist is a safe fakeclaim
a Mafia Taritor in a non-TKM setup -- he would have to claim VT
a Serial Killer -- he has only a 25% chance of being in a setup where Psychologist is a safe fakeclaim

Based on this, I believe there is only one scenario where Ichimaru Gin fakeclaims Psychologist, and that is as the Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup.

[ashersky]

Silverspawn's Jailkeeper claim

All analysis is done with the assumption that the claim is a lie.  We are trying to find sensibility in the choice of fake claim.  We will do this for all four claimants.

Assumption #1: a fakeclaim would be for short-term survival by being more believable than others.
Assumption #2: therefore, a fakeclaim would be a role that could not be counterclaimed, but instead more likely.
Assumption #3: Ichimaru Gin's claim is real if Silverspawn's is fake.

1. Detective, 1-shot Commuter, Goon Cop; 1-shot Investigation Immune + Serial Killer
2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
3. 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
4. 1-shot BP Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
5. Watcher, 1-shot BP Townie, 1-shot BP Commuter; 2-shot JOAT
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer
8. Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune

The green setups are ones in which a Psychologist exists.  Bolded setups are the ones in which a Jailkeeper exists.  The strikethrough setups are not viable for fakeclaimers, as everyone claimed not BP.  We have to assume that Silverspawn realizes that only of these four setups is real.  If he is a Mafia Goon, he knows if it is 2 or 4 based on power, or one of 4/6 if not.  If he is a Serial Killer, he knows it is 6.

Jailkeeper is a 50% safeclaim if Ichimaru Gin is believed (2 out of 4 possible )and a 50% safeclaim is Ichimaru Gin is disbelieved (1 out of 2 possible).

If Silverspawn is mafia, and he decided to fakeclaim Jailkeeper, it needs to be in a setup without a Jailkeeper.  That leaves #1 or #5 if pushing Ichi as a liar and #4 or #8 if supporting Ichi.  1, 5, and 8 are setups where the Mafia Goons do not know the Traitor.  4 is an MKT setup.

If Silverspawn is a Serial Killer, he knows the setup is one of {1, 6, 7}.  That's a 66.6% chance a Jailkeeper exists while knowing there's a 33.3% chance Ichimaru is telling the truth.

So, if Silverspawn is...

a Mafia Goon in an MKT setup -- 50% chance of being caught (setup #6).  He also knows Ichi is not the Traitor, and 100% believes the claim.  Not viable.
a Mafia Goon in an non-MKT setup -- 50% chance of being caught (setup #8).  #5 is out due to BP.  Unlikely.
a Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup -- 100% chance of being counterclaimed.
a Mafia Traitor in a non-TKM setup -- he would have to claim VT
a Serial Killer -- he has only a 33.3% chance of being in a setup where Jailkeeper is a safe fakeclaim

Based on this, I believe the only way Silverspawn fakeclaims Jailkeeper is to try and out the real Jailkeeper (which didn't happen).

[ashersky]

I messed up SK numbers, fixed here.  Doesn't change my conclusion.


Ichimaru Gin's Psychologist claim

All analysis is done with the assumption that the claim is a lie.  We are trying to find sensibility in the choice of fake claim.  We will do this for all four claimants.

Assumption #1: a fakeclaim would be for survival, not drawing out a counterclaim.
Assumption #2: therefore, a fakeclaim would be a role that could not be counterclaimed.

1. Detective, 1-shot Commuter, Goon Cop; 1-shot Investigation Immune + Serial Killer
2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
3. 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
4. 1-shot BP Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
5. Watcher, 1-shot BP Townie, 1-shot BP Commuter; 2-shot JOAT
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer
8. Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune

The green setups are ones in which a Psychologist exists.  We have to assume that Ichimaru Gin knew the game we are playing is NOT one of these.  All "Mafia Knows Traitor (MKT)" setups are in green.  In #3 and #7, "Traitor Knows Mafia (TKM)."

If Ichimaru Gin is mafia, and he decided to fakeclaim Psychologist, it appears most sensible that he would do this as a Traitor in a TKM setup, because in all cases, he knows Psychologist is a safeclaim.  As a Mafia Goon in a MTK setup, there is a 100% chance that a real Psychologist is in the game, so he doesn't fakeclaim Psychologist.  As a Mafia Goon that does NOT know the Traitor, that's six possible setups, with him knowing he's in a set of two {1 or 8}, {2 or 5}, or {3 or 7}.  If he's in the third set, he knows Psychologist is a safeclaim; in the other two sets, it's a 50% chance, so there are better choices.  If he's a Traitor who does NOT know Mafia, he is basically playing blind, as he has no setup information.  In that case, VT has to be the safest claim.

If Ichimaru Gin is a Serial Killer, he knows the setup is one of {1, 6, 7}.  That's a 33.3% chance a Psychologist exists.

So, if Ichimaru Gin is...

a Mafia Goon in an MTK setup -- he does NOT fakeclaim Psychologist
a Mafia Goon in an non-MTK setup -- he has only a 33% chance of being in a setup where Psychologist is a safe fakeclaim
a Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup -- Psychologist is a safe fakeclaim
a Mafia Taritor in a non-TKM setup -- he would have to claim VT
a Serial Killer -- he has a 66.6% chance of being in a setup where Psychologist is a safe fakeclaim

Based on this, I believe there is only one scenario where Ichimaru Gin fakeclaims Psychologist, and that is as the Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup.

[ashersky]

Jimmmmm's 1-Shot Commuter claim

All analysis is done with the assumption that the claim is a lie.  We are trying to find sensibility in the choice of fake claim.  We will do this for all four claimants.

Assumption #1: a fakeclaim would be for short-term survival by being more believable than others.
Assumption #2: therefore, a fakeclaim would be a role that could not be counterclaimed, but instead more likely.
Assumption #3: one of Ichimaru Gin's or Silverspawn's claim is real; the other is fake.

1. Detective, 1-shot Commuter, Goon Cop; 1-shot Investigation Immune + Serial Killer
2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
3. 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
4. 1-shot Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
5. Watcher, 1-shot BP Townie, 1-shot Commuter; 2-shot JOAT
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer
8. Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune

The green setups are ones in which a Psychologist exists.  Bolded setups are the ones in which a Jailkeeper exists.  The strikethrough setups are not viable for fakeclaimers, as everyone claimed not BP.  The underlined setups are ones in which a Commuter exists.  Assumptions get harder now. If he is fakeclaiming, he has to know or feel safe that setups #1, 4, and 7 are not it.  #5 is out for BP reasons.

If Jimmmmm is a Mafia Goon in a MKT setup, he knows Ichimaru is telling the truth.  So if Silverspawn is the Traitor, Jimmmm knows that Setup #4 is the one we are playing, since Ichi would be telling the truth and Silverspawn is lying.  Jimmmm claiming 1-Shot Commuter would be actively playing against his Traitor.

If Jimmmmm is a Mafia Goon who doesn't know the Traitor, he does not know if one or both previous claims are true.  He knows #4 is out since he doesn't know the Traitor, #1 is out because both Ichi and Silver cannot be lying, leaving #7 as a possibility if Ichi is the liar.

If Jimmmmm is the Mafia Traitor who knows Mafia, he knows Ichimaru is his lying partner.  The 1-Shot Commuter claim helps Ichi and hurts Silver.  And yet there's still a 50% chance he's counterclaimed, unless he caught joth's breadcrumb and new that Detective was the last claim to be made.

If Jimmmmm is a Serial Killer, he knows the setup is one of {1, 6, 7}.  That's a 33.3% chance a real Commuter exists while knowing it's possible both previously claimants are telling the truth (#7).  If he thinks they are both telling the truth, he needs to claim Watcher or Detective.

So, if Jimmmm is...

a Mafia Goon in an MKT setup -- He would fakeclaim Commuter to counter his known Traitor.  Not sensible.
a Mafia Goon in an non-MKT setup -- he has a 33.3% chance of being caught dependent on setup.
a Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup -- 50% chance of being counterclaimed, but supports his Mafia partner.  Could have known it was safe from breadcrumb.
a Mafia Traitor in a non-TKM setup -- he would have to claim VT
a Serial Killer -- he has only a 33.3% chance of being in a setup where a commuter exists, but had easier and safer fakeclaims by this time

Based on this, I believe the only way Jimmmmm fakeclaims Commuter is as a Traitor trying to help his known Goon partner Ichimaru at great risk.

[ashersky]

I was going to do Joth's Detective claim, and I still might, but it just seems so incredibly unlikely that it's a lie unless he's supporting another fake claim...

If it's Setup #1, both Ichi and Silver are lying.
If it's Setup #4, Silver is lying.
If it's Setup #6, Jimmmmm is lying.
If it's Setup #7, Ichi is lying.

Ichi and Silver get 50% chance of lying, Jimmmm gets 25%.

[ashersky]

I was going to do Joth's Detective claim, and I still might, but it just seems so incredibly unlikely that it's a lie unless he's supporting another fake claim...

If it's Setup #1, both Ichi and Silver are lying.
If it's Setup #4, Silver is lying.
If it's Setup #6, Jimmmmm is lying.
If it's Setup #7, Ichi is lying.

Ichi and Silver get 50% chance of lying, Jimmmm gets 25%.

I'll note that if it's Setup #1, the Goon Cop hasn't claimed, and that's ludicrious.

So really, 33.3% chance for each of them.

But then, if Jimmmmm is lying, so is Ichi, and we're missing claims.

So to me, it's 50% Ichi or Silver.

And based on my analysis, Ichi's the Traitor fakeclaiming or Silver was trying to out the real JK who doesn't exist.

vote: ichimaru gin

[Eevee]

Wow, ashersky, that was really really helpful!

Vote: IG This makes more sense than silver, because at least with silver being truthful we have some explanation for the missing kills. It's not the likeliest explanation, but it's pretty clear something unlikely has happened at this point.

[Ichimaru Gin]

Wow, ashersky, that was really really helpful!

Vote: IG This makes more sense than silver, because at least with silver being truthful we have some explanation for the missing kills. It's not the likeliest explanation, but it's pretty clear something unlikely has happened at this point.

Interesting post.

I appreciate Ashersky's analysis and the conclusion that he comes to which is it is either me or silver who is lying. Unfortunately, he has decided that it would be better to lynch someone who has gotten unfair suspicion this entire game and nearly mislynched by scum multiple times, over a known liar (in the context of this game) who is going to get away with one of the biggest scum plays I've ever seen.
Not too sure if there's a ton I can do to avert this. I've made my claim and done my best to offer town what information and reads I have. Eevee is of course going to join my wagon to save himself.
I guess I'll wait and see what others whom I find townier think. Letting silver get away with this is simply unbelievable. I'm sure you'll lynch him after my flip, but you'll be down town a strong town PR (admittedly less strong later in the game). Also, now that you've decided that either me or silver is scum, who do you think each of our partner's would be?

[ashersky]

Wow, ashersky, that was really really helpful!

Vote: IG This makes more sense than silver, because at least with silver being truthful we have some explanation for the missing kills. It's not the likeliest explanation, but it's pretty clear something unlikely has happened at this point.

Interesting post.

I appreciate Ashersky's analysis and the conclusion that he comes to which is it is either me or silver who is lying. Unfortunately, he has decided that it would be better to lynch someone who has gotten unfair suspicion this entire game and nearly mislynched by scum multiple times, over a known liar (in the context of this game) who is going to get away with one of the biggest scum plays I've ever seen.
Not too sure if there's a ton I can do to avert this. I've made my claim and done my best to offer town what information and reads I have. Eevee is of course going to join my wagon to save himself.
I guess I'll wait and see what others whom I find townier think. Letting silver get away with this is simply unbelievable. I'm sure you'll lynch him after my flip, but you'll be down town a strong town PR (admittedly less strong later in the game). Also, now that you've decided that either me or silver is scum, who do you think each of our partner's would be?

I get your point, and I really do not like the fact that silverspawn lied, but in the end, your claim is the only one that makes sense as fake.

As for partners, given I think you are the Traitor, Eevee is most likely Hydrad's partner.

[Jimmmmm]

ash, that's a big wall of posts for a very wrong conclusion.

Based on this, I believe there is only one scenario where Ichimaru Gin fakeclaims Psychologist, and that is as the Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup.

False.

If Ichi was a Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup, he knew that the Town PRs are either Commuter, JK and Detective (Column 3) or BP, JK and Bodyguard (Row 3). In the case of Column 3, which we now know is the real one if Ichi is lying, then he's fine, Psychologist is a safe claim.

But in the case of Row 3, Psychologist would be an absolutely disastrous claim. The four claims would then be BP, JK, Bodyguard and Psychologist, and there are no possible setups which have a Psychologist and two of the others - the only possible setup with these four claims is Row 3, which excludes Psychologist.

So a Traitor in TKM would absolutely not claim Psychologist without more information about what other roles are present.

ash arguing otherwise is extremely scummy.

[ashersky]

ash, that's a big wall of posts for a very wrong conclusion.

Based on this, I believe there is only one scenario where Ichimaru Gin fakeclaims Psychologist, and that is as the Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup.

False.

If Ichi was a Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup, he knew that the Town PRs are either Commuter, JK and Detective (Column 3) or BP, JK and Bodyguard (Row 3). In the case of Column 3, which we now know is the real one if Ichi is lying, then he's fine, Psychologist is a safe claim.

But in the case of Row 3, Psychologist would be an absolutely disastrous claim. The four claims would then be BP, JK, Bodyguard and Psychologist, and there are no possible setups which have a Psychologist and two of the others - the only possible setup with these four claims is Row 3, which excludes Psychologist.

So a Traitor in TKM would absolutely not claim Psychologist without more information about what other roles are present.

ash arguing otherwise is extremely scummy.

I truly don't understand what you are talking about.

There are two possible setups with TKM, and neither have a psychologist in it.  Do in either case, it is a safe claim because he can't be counter claimed.  In no other case was it sensible to fake claim psychologist.

[ashersky]

Are you trying to argue that Ichi is being truthful (I.e., you believe him)?

I'm arguing that the only way he fake claims is if he is the Traitor in TKM, and in no other case is it a sensible possibility.

I did the same for you and silver, trying to figure out reasons TO fake claim.  There were very few.  But someone is lying.  Of the few possible reasons, Ichi's is most likely.

If you have a strong argument for it bring you, silver, or joth, please lay it out.  But I couldn't find great reasoning based on timing.

[ashersky]

And I know you think silver claimed because three ICs suck.  That's a valid point, as is the "he lied" argument.

But the actual claim he made sucks as a fake claim because it would only serve to out the real JK, which didn't happen.  It otherwise was stupid because it relied on you or joth being a watcher, which he couldn't know.

[ashersky]

You could argue it is setup 4 and silver is mafia goon in a MKT.  But that's a 50% chance it's setup 6 and he's screwed, unless he knows Ichi is the lying traitor, but then where's the bodyguard?

There was a chance Ichi gets caught out by his claim, but if he's the traitor, he knows he won't be counter claimed and that he's safe until there's a mass claim.  He claimed to survive while everyone else claimed in a plan.  He had to take the risk.

That's my argument.

[Eevee]

One additional strike against Ichi is that when a PR gets suspected, they usually feel even more insulted and often search vindication by claiming even when it's not a good idea. If IG was truthful, he kept his head cool regarding to claiming exceptionally well when he was under scrutiny and nearly lynched both day 1 and day 2.

[silverspawn]

Wow, ashersky, that was really really helpful!

Yes. That was very good. And unlike Jimmm's posts, every step is easily followable here. You definitely aren't anti town now.

This doesn't change what I think about Eevee, but it does make me believe that there's a high chance Ichi is the traitor.

I've heard people saying that you're great with setups before, but this is the first time I see you do something like this.

[ashersky]

I think I see where jimmmmm is coming from now on his logic.

His argument is that if Ichi is the traitor, he knew all possible combinations of PRs.  Therefore, when choosing which fake claim to make, he could look at what roles don't exist and cross check them against viable combinations with the real PRs.  And so, he had a 50/50 chance of being caught out when the mass claim happened.

As it turned out, his role is viable within the claims.

I think two things in response: 1) as mentioned, he had to take a risk -- was there even a safer claim to make?, and 2) I don't think Ichi thought it through to that level (no offense).