VCA! Let's see our end-of-D1 vote count:
LaLight (2): Shraeye, Robz888
Robz888 (10): 2.71828....., WestCoastDidds, UmbrageofSnow, SpaceAnemone, chickenwarlord, DatSwan, Awaclus, Glooble, Jimmmmm, ashersky
Jimmmmm (1): raerae
raerae (1): mcmcsalot
2.71828..... (1): LaLight
SpaceAnemone (3): faust, Uncleeurope, MiX
From this, we can seperate these voters into several groups:
- Robz wagon: 2.71, Didds, UoS, Space, chicken, Swan, Awaclus, Glooble, Jimmmmm, ash
- LL/Space wagons: shraeye, Robz, raerae, faust, Uncle, MiX
- None of the above: raerae, mcmc, LL
I'm seperating the LL/Space wagons because I think those were the other realistic options besides Robz (if anyone feels like 2.71 or Jimmmmm should go there I'll make a post with them too).
We can further seperate this if we look at the vote count when Robz was the only one getting lynched, that is, after Swan's vote:
LaLight (4): MiX, Shraeye, Glooble, Robz888
Robz888 (6): 2.71828....., WestCoastDidds, UmbrageofSnow, SpaceAnemone, chickenwarlord, DatSwan
Jimmmmm (1): raerae
raerae (2): ashersky, mcmcsalot
2.71828..... (2): LaLight, Awaclus
shraeye (1): Jimmmmm
SpaceAnemone (2): faust, Uncleeurope
Since the lynch was guaranteed here, we can ignore votes after this. The 2.71 vote's also irrelevent for the Robz wagon: it's better if we remove him from that group to make conclusions. We can also add Uncle to the Robz list because of his vote mobility around deadline (voted after UoS, moved to Jimmmm after chicken). Thus, our groups are:
- Robz wagon: Didds, UoS, Uncleeurope, Space, chicken, Swan
- LL/Space wagons: MiX, shraeye, Glooble, Robz, raerae, faust, Uncleeurope
- None of the above: 2.71, ashersky, raerae, mcmc, LL, Awaclus, Jimmmmm
So, now that this is done, how can we use this? I believe there's (at least) one scum in the first group. Why? Because I feel like SOME scum would want to enter the Robz wagon. At least one, to help it grow, it was a fairly easy wagon to enter (just look at UoS' post when voting and you'll realize why) and you would be between townies doing the same, perfect cover. Besides, it grew like a wildfire (all of those votes were from #791 to #836). Wow, it actually grew incredibly fast.
Let's look at the votes in order, Didds first:
vote: Robz
I am committeed to a lynch. I am willing to vote for LL, Robz, or Asher. I won't vote for Jimmmm today.
At this point LL had 6 votes and Robz had 1. So moving because "I am comitted to a lynch" is...weird at best, scummy at worst. However, she does explain it in the only way possible:
I left LL when enough folks said it wasn’t fair to lynch him with no internet access, etc, so while I’m on Robz early it’s because he seemed viable based on the talk even if it wants yet about votes. And I wasn’t moving to Jimmm.
Which looks reasonable enough. It's also a very good excuse to get off the LL wagon but that only makes sense if LL's scum...go back here if EFHW flips scum.
Next is UoS with the best explanation:
Vote: Robz
Baaaaaaaaa
Wow. Just wow. Is sheeping scummy? It's a very "meh" reason and one that is stupidly easy to explain: all UoS has to say is that 2.71 was towny...oh hey, that's what they did! I don't like this vote, seems to be what scum would do. @UoS, do you like sheeping? If so, do you prefer to do it early or later in the game?
Then comes Mr. volatile vote, Uncle:
Vote: Robz
I dunno, people. My vote is still fluid, just trying some stuff out.
His other votes has much more substance than this, feels off. But he jumped off the wagon, which makes this reasoning make sense. Since he was moving everywhere and the wagon grew REALLY fast I think this vote's null, Uncle just wanted to hop around and got caught up with the barrage of Robz votes, he even left after 2 votes. @Uncle, why, exactly, did you vote for Robz?
Now, space:
Robz888 -- Actually, his inactivity here doesn't feel totally like it did in RMM51. Here he seems to be reading and sheeping, rather than too busy to be present. I certainly have sympathy for people who find interacting with a big group on D1 tough, but that's not really the vibe I get from him either. Of the major wagons that I haven't ruled out, he's looking the most votable.
Vote: Robz
Here I feel that the weird thing was throwing away so many people off their lynch pool then not getting better scumreads than Robz. The whole post's also a lot of words to essencially sheep 2.71 since that's, ultimately, what drove them to vote...yet they don't say it here. Yes, I've said this before, but it keeps being true. Also, if you read it all, it has exactly 1 scumread (Robz) and then whatever it is that Space thinks of me, I still don't know what "case" they were talking about, but I'm assuming it's a scumread too?
Chicken's next:
Vote Robbz
I guess it makes sense to throw my vote into the ring at this juncture. Robbz was my strongest scumread, and now that it is looking like we are converging for an actual lynch seems to have the most traction. If there is a big shift to Lalight I guess I could be persuaded, but I would much rather stick on this line.
"strong" scumread with some of the flimsiest reasons to vote I've ever seen. I would be on this wagon instantly if I didn't think this is part of his meta. @chicken, you said "It wasn't scummy in and of itself - but the first was a rather a poor choice of words to throw out when the populace at large already had moderate suspicion on him": how is this scummy? How is a poor choice of words scummy? This explanation is essencial for us to understand you.
Lastly comes Swan:
I was wrong. I will not be here. I do not think Robz is particularly skummy but I do not want my vote to go to waste and I do not want to vote for Space.
Vote: Robz
So...he votes for Robz because he doesn't "want to vote for Space"? Yet LL's a much bigger wagon...he then explains this with the laziest (lazy seems to be a theme of this game) answer I've seen:
LL's wagon was at 4 votes, Robz' was at 5, he could easily vote LL...actually, @Swan, why didn't you vote LL?
I posted this in my VCA - but because I had to choose between the two and I liked Robz more than LL.
Now that I had time to reread...WHAT VCA? I didn't see you talk about LL at all. @Swan, what, how do you explain this? Swan has the worst explanation, he just saw a wagon, voted and went on his merry way...he didn't have a lot of time but he could clearly see that there were 3 wagons, he only commented 2, I don't get it.
From all this I get: Swan is scum, UoS and chicken are scummy, Didds, Space and Uncle are null/towny, doesn't matter now.
Now, you might say, but there's almost always scum in a 6 player group! To wish I reply, if we're in multiball, there would be at least 2 scum here. Because each scum team wants the cover, they would both put someone in there, not realizing that the other scum team's already there, since they don't even know if it's multiball. This would easily explain how the wagon exploded so fast. But, what if it's not multiball? Well, I'm positive there's still at least 1 scum here, which is more than you can say in a random group of 6. You can also note (and I will) that Uncle's vote had little to do with it and reduce it to a group of 5 with guaranteed 1 scum: those are pretty good odds. Couple that with bad reasons to vote from pretty much everyone and you have a solid lynch list. I'll essencially want to lynch from this list today, but not the null/towny reads, so just Swan, UoS and chicken.
Unfortunatly I'm pretty sure I made a lot of stretches, overexaggerations, oversimplifications or just outright mistakes somewhere, as I am prone to, so I'll also accept a faust or Awaclus lynch. Awaclus for their position in the wagon, unquestionable, which means he would (theoretically) be safe from VCAs today and faust for...hey, I actually like the manipulation case! But really just because the only way faust flips scum is if every single town joins on him. I'll have to reread him later...
I had some things to say about the other 2 groups, for example, I'm also positive there's at least one scum in the LL/Space bunch, but here I don't have a lot to say about each because they haven't said important things about those votes...also I'm not as confident about that.
TL;DR: Swan is scum, UoS and chicken are scummy, will vote for faust and Awaclus, must reread faust.
I'll single out some questions next post. If anyone wants me to go in-depth in the LL/Space group say so, I already spent a lot of brainpower just doing this analysis...