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Author Topic: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 7)  (Read 267929 times)

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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1450 on: January 19, 2013, 05:04:04 pm »

Okay just looked up what neighbors are. From what I read shouldn't the remaining neighbors come out seeing as it is likely one is scum. If there are two or more, whichever one is town can come out and say who all the neighbors are. We then check these people out with previouse reasons for being scum.

Where does it say this?

The neighbor page on mafia wiki. I understand its not certain but I really think it would be helpful. The way I see it there are two likely possibilities, either two or three neighbors. Now with one dead and being town it creates five scenarios from this.

2N) raerae town & X town. In this situation the left over town player should come out and give us an insight into what was talked about in the qt.
2N) raerae town & X scum. In this situation the scum could lie two us about anything said in the qt.
so if there are two neighbors we cannot trust what the remaining one says as they could be scum.

3N) raerae town & X town & Y town. Same result as 2N all town.
3N) raerae town & X town & Y scum. The town member of this neighborhood should come out and name the other neighborhood player, we can then check these two people and see if they fit with any prior suspicious activity. Also the insight into raerae's thoughts could be helpfull.
3N) raerae town & X scum & Y scum. If they are on different teams, they should still help scum hunt the other one and come forward. These two scum being on the same team seems highly unlikely to me, as it has either given them a useless double qt(night talk) or a bastard day talk scum qt.
So if there are three,or more, members in the neighborhood, they should come forward as it should help us find scum.

If anyone finds a problem with my logic please let me know, this is what I have gathered from reading about the neighbor role.
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1451 on: January 19, 2013, 05:14:31 pm »

@yuma -- my read on Shraeye leans scummy, and he's on the would lynch list.  But, I'm wary my scum read comes from him sounding a lot like old Shraeye, who read scummy but is town. 

@yuma on Glooble -- great catch.  I prefer the Glooble for the lynch today based on:

1) his D1 wagon that disappeared
2) his availability to post anytime the lurking came up, but lurking otherwise
3) his interaction with Galz that you point out
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TheMunch

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1452 on: January 19, 2013, 05:24:21 pm »

My fear about the Shraeye/TheMunch "one of them is scum" discussion is what happens if we are both town?  I have a town read on Shraeye for the most part but I fear that the "one of them is scum" has been pushed to such a degree that if we lynch either of us, the other is going to look so suspicious just because the other flipped town, and we are walking ourselves right into 2 mislynches for the price of one.  I'm sure scum loves that.
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shraeye

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1453 on: January 19, 2013, 05:30:54 pm »

My fear about the Shraeye/TheMunch "one of them is scum" discussion is what happens if we are both town?  I have a town read on Shraeye for the most part but I fear that the "one of them is scum" has been pushed to such a degree that if we lynch either of us, the other is going to look so suspicious just because the other flipped town, and we are walking ourselves right into 2 mislynches for the price of one.  I'm sure scum loves that.
I have a mild scumread on you, but share the same fear.

Like, there are other people who agreed with me/Munch yesterday.  But nobody's going "Oh look, liopoil also agreed with the Cuzz lynch; Glooble also bought shraeye's Cuzz case...well I guess one of shraeye/Glooble/liopoil is scum"
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1454 on: January 19, 2013, 05:33:21 pm »

My fear about the Shraeye/TheMunch "one of them is scum" discussion is what happens if we are both town?  I have a town read on Shraeye for the most part but I fear that the "one of them is scum" has been pushed to such a degree that if we lynch either of us, the other is going to look so suspicious just because the other flipped town, and we are walking ourselves right into 2 mislynches for the price of one.  I'm sure scum loves that.
I have a mild scumread on you, but share the same fear.

Like, there are other people who agreed with me/Munch yesterday.  But nobody's going "Oh look, liopoil also agreed with the Cuzz lynch; Glooble also bought shraeye's Cuzz case...well I guess one of shraeye/Glooble/liopoil is scum"

I think at least one of Shraeye/Glooble/liopoil is scum.
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TheMunch

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1455 on: January 19, 2013, 05:34:08 pm »

My fear about the Shraeye/TheMunch "one of them is scum" discussion is what happens if we are both town?  I have a town read on Shraeye for the most part but I fear that the "one of them is scum" has been pushed to such a degree that if we lynch either of us, the other is going to look so suspicious just because the other flipped town, and we are walking ourselves right into 2 mislynches for the price of one.  I'm sure scum loves that.
I have a mild scumread on you, but share the same fear.

Like, there are other people who agreed with me/Munch yesterday.  But nobody's going "Oh look, liopoil also agreed with the Cuzz lynch; Glooble also bought shraeye's Cuzz case...well I guess one of shraeye/Glooble/liopoil is scum"

I think at least one of Shraeye/Glooble/liopoil is scum.

I think at least one of Ashersky is scum.
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1456 on: January 19, 2013, 05:41:08 pm »

My fear about the Shraeye/TheMunch "one of them is scum" discussion is what happens if we are both town?  I have a town read on Shraeye for the most part but I fear that the "one of them is scum" has been pushed to such a degree that if we lynch either of us, the other is going to look so suspicious just because the other flipped town, and we are walking ourselves right into 2 mislynches for the price of one.  I'm sure scum loves that.
I have a mild scumread on you, but share the same fear.

Like, there are other people who agreed with me/Munch yesterday.  But nobody's going "Oh look, liopoil also agreed with the Cuzz lynch; Glooble also bought shraeye's Cuzz case...well I guess one of shraeye/Glooble/liopoil is scum"

I think at least one of Shraeye/Glooble/liopoil is scum.

I think at least one of Ashersky is scum.

The hilarity of your wrongness is awesome.  Mods are cracking up, I'm sure.  If you succeed in this crusade of yours, I look forward to pointing this out post-game, in the wake of a scum win indirectly caused by this.

You know who gets/got a lot out of picking out a supposed scum slip, berating the supposed slipper, and wasting four pages of discussion on it?  Scum.  You know who did that this game?  You.
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shraeye

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1457 on: January 19, 2013, 05:46:26 pm »

The hilarity of your wrongness is awesome.  Mods are cracking up, I'm sure.  If you succeed in this crusade of yours, I look forward to pointing this out post-game, in the wake of a scum win indirectly caused by this.

Ashersky, at the same time you are posting that Munch is "cracking up the mods" with his hilarious conviction in wrong reads, you are also absolutely certain that one of munch/shraeye is scum and you just said one of shraeye/liopoil/glooble is scum. 

I just see too many similarities between your conviction and Munch's conviction to even start to believe this defense from you.
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shraeye

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1458 on: January 19, 2013, 05:49:54 pm »

It's just that I don't see how, presuming that Munch is wrong in his read on you, his wrongness is somehow particularly hilarious.  Are you double-town?  Is he more wrong on you than he would be on somebody else?  I don't understand the point of what you say.
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Glooble

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1459 on: January 19, 2013, 06:01:27 pm »

Yuma, I don't understand your argument for why I'm Galz's scumbuddy at all.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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TheMunch

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1460 on: January 19, 2013, 06:03:00 pm »

Regarding Ashersky, I will admit that I found the scumslip because I was already quite suspicious of him.  I mentioned this at the beginning of today but I developed my initial read on Ashersky because of the way he was behaving at the end of the day yesterday. 

We're all talking about how scummy people were for pushing the cuzz lynch now that we know that hes town, and people think I'm scummy for wanting the day to end.  These are all perfectly valid avenues for scumhunting.  But I am surprised no one found nearly as suspicious the fact that Ashersky seemed to be waffling back and forth between lynching Raerae (whenever he seemed to convince anyone that it was a good idea; I think Eevee bit at least) and jumping back on the Cuzz wagon when that seemed like the lynch that was going through.  I feel like this kind of waffling is significantly more suspicious than the people who pushed a case and stuck with it (even if the lynchee was town).
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1461 on: January 19, 2013, 06:15:19 pm »

Regarding Ashersky, I will admit that I found the scumslip because I was already quite suspicious of him.  I mentioned this at the beginning of today but I developed my initial read on Ashersky because of the way he was behaving at the end of the day yesterday. 

We're all talking about how scummy people were for pushing the cuzz lynch now that we know that hes town, and people think I'm scummy for wanting the day to end.  These are all perfectly valid avenues for scumhunting.  But I am surprised no one found nearly as suspicious the fact that Ashersky seemed to be waffling back and forth between lynching Raerae (whenever he seemed to convince anyone that it was a good idea; I think Eevee bit at least) and jumping back on the Cuzz wagon when that seemed like the lynch that was going through.  I feel like this kind of waffling is significantly more suspicious than the people who pushed a case and stuck with it (even if the lynchee was town).

Munch, I don't think you are scummy for wanting the day to end.  I think that was a pro-town thing in your favor, in my book.

I wanted to lynch raerae.  I couldn't get it to happen.  I jumped to the viable lynch.

Tunneling Munch used to be town munch.  Is this that?  Are you tunneling hardcore for town!cred?
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1462 on: January 19, 2013, 06:17:23 pm »

The hilarity of your wrongness is awesome.  Mods are cracking up, I'm sure.  If you succeed in this crusade of yours, I look forward to pointing this out post-game, in the wake of a scum win indirectly caused by this.

Ashersky, at the same time you are posting that Munch is "cracking up the mods" with his hilarious conviction in wrong reads, you are also absolutely certain that one of munch/shraeye is scum and you just said one of shraeye/liopoil/glooble is scum. 

I just see too many similarities between your conviction and Munch's conviction to even start to believe this defense from you.

Being fairly certain one of a subset is scum is not so crazy.  Not as crazy as being 100% sure one person is scum.  And knowing that person's team.  And who he night killed.  All n D2.
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1463 on: January 19, 2013, 06:19:01 pm »

It's just that I don't see how, presuming that Munch is wrong in his read on you, his wrongness is somehow particularly hilarious.  Are you double-town?  Is he more wrong on you than he would be on somebody else?  I don't understand the point of what you say.

It's hilarious because either he's town that's sooooo convinced and yet sooooo wrong, or he's scum pushing this case and convincing townies of its validity.  That's funny to mods/spectators.
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shraeye

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1464 on: January 19, 2013, 06:19:26 pm »

@liopoil; please answer my questions in #1439

@mcmcsalot
But I don't think casting suspicion on you is a viable reason to nk her. I guess if anything there's a bit of wifom you could have nk'd her to cast suspicion on yourself just to make this argument and gain town cred. Your opening post of this day read very towny to me so I don't actuall believe my above statement, it is however a possibility.
mcmcsalot, please elaborate on your read on ashersky.  What is it?  What things make you think that?

For reference, below is ashersky's opening post of the day, which reads towny to mcmcsalot.  I don't understand why.
Good job someone!  Either SK or other scum team hit scum unless we have a vig.

Mirror Uni cop just became surely relevant.

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1465 on: January 19, 2013, 06:22:27 pm »

Just a thought on Galz to put down: I think Galz was in a fairly difficult situation in this game. He didn't want to be suspected enough to be lynched, but he wanted to be suspected enough to avoid being nightkilled by the other scum team/SK. I think people expressing Town reads on him and expressing a desire to not lynch him, as well as his scumhunting reputation, contributed to him being nightkilled. So I think the correct play by Galz' partner/s would be to try to cast some suspicion on him - not enough to get him lynched, but enough to make him seem less Towny and thus less likely to be nightkilled. That's not necessarily what they did, but I think that would have been the right thing to do.
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shraeye

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1466 on: January 19, 2013, 06:22:53 pm »

Mcmc: This is one I think I am missing details cause I definitely wasn't giving it 100% after page 40, but didn't mcmc say that he was going to hammer cuzz then never ended up on the lynch?

Munch, you have posted a ton about ashersky.  Please tell me about mcmc.  You said you wanted to look at him, have you? What have you found?
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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1467 on: January 19, 2013, 06:38:47 pm »

Shraeye: I think in this case it is silly to group shraeye and munch together, saying that one is likely scum. I didn't see them+raerae grouping together much yesterday. sure they were all on the cuzz lynch, but so were 5 others. I don't remember what eevee said about galz. eevee is acting very stationy I think, and i doubt whatever he said about galz would change that. I really don't want to reread that humongous D1...
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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1468 on: January 19, 2013, 06:44:26 pm »

Mcmc, I don't see why the nieghbor(s) should claim. it doesn't neccessarily help town more than scum. also say there are two other nieghbors: they might not know that each other are town.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1469 on: January 19, 2013, 07:15:10 pm »

@liopoil; please answer my questions in #1439

@mcmcsalot
But I don't think casting suspicion on you is a viable reason to nk her. I guess if anything there's a bit of wifom you could have nk'd her to cast suspicion on yourself just to make this argument and gain town cred. Your opening post of this day read very towny to me so I don't actuall believe my above statement, it is however a possibility.
mcmcsalot, please elaborate on your read on ashersky.  What is it?  What things make you think that?

For reference, below is ashersky's opening post of the day, which reads towny to mcmcsalot.  I don't understand why.
Good job someone!  Either SK or other scum team hit scum unless we have a vig.

Mirror Uni cop just became surely relevant.

So I meant to say opening posts. After reading the opening posts from both theorel and ash I got towny vibes from the two of them. I thought the descussion they were creating was pro town, thus I found them to be town. This is stemming from the fact that this is the first day 2 I have experienced as town. After reading all of day 2 so far, I know longer have a strong town read on anyone other than theorel. Ash is somewhat scummy to me because of the posts between munch and him. I also understand the argument that there is scum between you and munch. The argument for glooble makes sense to me as well. In fact I find myself agreeing with most peoples arguments, the thing that scares me is that it is most of you(ash/shraeye/munch) arguing for eachother. This could very well be scum on scum, town on scum, or town on town, and scum could be lurking wathcing this all go down. I would be interested in a Day 2 post count.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1470 on: January 19, 2013, 07:20:46 pm »

Mcmc, I don't see why the nieghbor(s) should claim. it doesn't neccessarily help town more than scum. also say there are two other nieghbors: they might not know that each other are town.

This is exactly why I thought claiming would help, they cannot know there neighbor is town, in fact I think if one of the neighbors is town they should come out because raerae was town, her interaction with her neighbors haas to be of some help. It benefits scum to keep the contents of the qt a mystery, so if one of the members is town they should reveal this information, yes scum could come out, gain some town cred for doing so but it would still benefit town in the long run I believe. Also its not like the scum can trick us if there are two neighbors left, as I believe it is highly unlikely they are both scum.
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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1471 on: January 19, 2013, 07:57:00 pm »

I really don't want to reread that humongous D1...

Let it be known that looooooooooong day1s are detrimental.  I have looked at a few people and realized that I might have to go back to reread things.  I really really don't want to.  There's just too much crap to sift through to find out if what I'm looking for even exists.
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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1472 on: January 19, 2013, 10:11:51 pm »

Mcmc, I don't see why the nieghbor(s) should claim. it doesn't neccessarily help town more than scum. also say there are two other nieghbors: they might not know that each other are town.

This is exactly why I thought claiming would help, they cannot know there neighbor is town, in fact I think if one of the neighbors is town they should come out because raerae was town, her interaction with her neighbors haas to be of some help. It benefits scum to keep the contents of the qt a mystery, so if one of the members is town they should reveal this information, yes scum could come out, gain some town cred for doing so but it would still benefit town in the long run I believe. Also its not like the scum can trick us if there are two neighbors left, as I believe it is highly unlikely they are both scum.

I disagree with part of this, her interaction with her neighbors does not have to be of some help.  It could just be information that is all publicly available (i.e. raerae already posted it), or it could be information which isn't relevant (i.e. she had a scum-read on Galzria after day1).  It could be confused/muddled reads which aren't terribly valuable.  You should already know from Blitz mafia, information from a confirmed town is useful but not incredibly so.
If there is one neighbor, then claiming "neighbor" is essentially equivalent to claiming VT.    It's useless to town because it actually tells us nothing about their alignment and it's useful to scum because it helps them direct their NKs.
If there are 2 neighbors, then the neighbor-claim is only a little better than that because it's confirm-able as a role, but it still doesn't give any information about alignment and is thus relatively useless to town, while being useful to scum.
Like any other potential claiming situation, it's only worth it to give additional information to scum if the information being given to town is more valuable.  i.e. if raerae had some ground-breaking reads, that would be given more credence having come from a confirmed town.  So basically, if it would be worth it to claim IC aggressively, then it would be worth it to claim neighbor to give that read.  BUT, even then it's only worth it if we have 2 neighbors because we can't confirm the alignment of a single neighbor and thus don't know if they're trying to direct town with false information or not.

So, it is clearly (at least to me) a bad idea for a lone neighbor to claim.

Is it worth outing two players who would then be known not to have any protective (i.e. doctor/roleblocker), investigative (i.e. cop), or otherwise generally considered powerful role, simply to get the information from a town-player with only the slightest bit more information than you had, but no more information than you now have?  I'm dubious.

to sum up: It is my opinion that as in all role-claiming situations, neighbors mostly shouldn't claim.  They should only claim if they feel like the information they have, when cast in the light of "coming from one of raerae's neighbors" would result in a scum-lynch, when it wouldn't result in such a lynch otherwise.
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theorel

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1473 on: January 19, 2013, 10:12:55 pm »

Actually, after typing that up, I guess I actually disagreed with all of it.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1474 on: January 19, 2013, 10:23:19 pm »

Yuma, I don't understand your argument for why I'm Galz's scumbuddy at all.

is there anything in particular you don't understand? Let me see if I can clarify a bit.

I am not saying that you are Galz's scumbuddy. I don't know if you are or not. I analyzed Galz's interactions with everyone, and you were one person that stood out to me that could potentially be his scumbuddy. I then looked back a bit and saw your post about Galz. From there I tried to see if your post would make sense from a player that could be scumbuddy with Galz. I think it does. It doesn't mean that you are, but it means that that post doesn't exclude you from being... Does that make sense?  Does that make sense to everyone?

I am not saying that Glooble is Galz's scum partner. I need to go back and look at things more and try and look at other players as well before I make that decision. But that post did jump out to me and could certainly be from scum!Glooble about his partner Galz.
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