Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Witherweaver]

The most convincing thing for Eevee---that there was no kill the night he was Jailkept---isn't as convincing as it seemed to be.  Because whether Eevee or Faust is Mafia, the explanation for the lack of SK kill is the same.  The only difference is:

1) If Eevee is Mafia, Jailkeeping prevented kill.
2) If Faust is Mafia, Faust shot SK!Ash or Eevee.  First being most likely.

Is the second scenario much less believable than the first?  I'm not too convinced.

[ashersky]

Just finished Ichi's D1.  All there was in regards to interactions that I noticed (with folks still alive) is buddying Eevee.  A few posts explicitly saying he "agreed" with him.

[Witherweaver]

I keep coming back to actions versus words.

Faust gained a lot of scumminess in my eyes because of his vehement opposition to the Ichi lynch.  But, well, that could be a really bad read, and it seems over the top for a partner move.  I think bussing there is much more likely.  Other than that, and the fact that he was arguing against me (which always add scumminess to people, for everyone, no matter what you say), I don't have an argument to make him scummier than Eevee.

In the end, if I still believe WW is town, he's scum anyway.  But I think today we need to lynch the one whom we are most sure of.

I'm going to Ctrl-F Ichi's posts and see what I get from it.

Also in regards to Faust treating Ichi, Faust developed a strong town read on Ichi after the whole he almost got lynched thing, and maintained it after Ichi's claim.  It looks like Faust might have figured out that Ichi was the traitor.

[Witherweaver]

Just finished Ichi's D1.  All there was in regards to interactions that I noticed (with folks still alive) is buddying Eevee.  A few posts explicitly saying he "agreed" with him.

Would you do that to your partner when they don't know you?  He almost ignored Hydrad.

[ashersky]

The most convincing thing for Eevee---that there was no kill the night he was Jailkept---isn't as convincing as it seemed to be.  Because whether Eevee or Faust is Mafia, the explanation for the lack of SK kill is the same.  The only difference is:

1) If Eevee is Mafia, Jailkeeping prevented kill.
2) If Faust is Mafia, Faust shot SK!Ash or Eevee.  First being most likely.

Is the second scenario much less believable than the first?  I'm not too convinced.

I actually think the most convincing thing for Eevee is the end of Day 2, when Hydrad was lynched.  Reread those pages.

As for why there were zero kills on N2, we're missing two kills no matter what.  One Goon was dead, the traitor can't kill, so there is exactly one mafia who can kill.  And then there's an SK.  Eevee being jailkept is the most plausible reason for one kill being missing.  I think you are looking at the lack of a second kill and seeing how that might clear Eevee.  I just don't see it.

If Eevee is mafia, he couldn't kill.  If Eevee is SK, he couldn't kill.  What happened to the other kill, whether it was Eevee was shot or Jimmmmm commuted or the SK didn't shoot and used a power or whatever I don't think takes away from the argument against Eevee here.

Maybe I'm wrong, but that's how I see that night specifically.

[ashersky]

Just finished Ichi's D1.  All there was in regards to interactions that I noticed (with folks still alive) is buddying Eevee.  A few posts explicitly saying he "agreed" with him.

Would you do that to your partner when they don't know you?  He almost ignored Hydrad.

Maybe?  I don't know what I'd do as a traitor there.  When I was mafia in RMM5, we had an unknown traitor in the setup who I think knew us.  Yuma got himself killed for us late in the game and we won.

Maybe I'd look at how to help my partners?  I don't know.  You might want to signal your existence somehow?

[Witherweaver]

The most convincing thing for Eevee---that there was no kill the night he was Jailkept---isn't as convincing as it seemed to be.  Because whether Eevee or Faust is Mafia, the explanation for the lack of SK kill is the same.  The only difference is:

1) If Eevee is Mafia, Jailkeeping prevented kill.
2) If Faust is Mafia, Faust shot SK!Ash or Eevee.  First being most likely.

Is the second scenario much less believable than the first?  I'm not too convinced.

I actually think the most convincing thing for Eevee is the end of Day 2, when Hydrad was lynched.  Reread those pages.

As for why there were zero kills on N2, we're missing two kills no matter what.  One Goon was dead, the traitor can't kill, so there is exactly one mafia who can kill.  And then there's an SK.  Eevee being jailkept is the most plausible reason for one kill being missing.  I think you are looking at the lack of a second kill and seeing how that might clear Eevee.  I just don't see it.

If Eevee is mafia, he couldn't kill.  If Eevee is SK, he couldn't kill.  What happened to the other kill, whether it was Eevee was shot or Jimmmmm commuted or the SK didn't shoot and used a power or whatever I don't think takes away from the argument against Eevee here.

Maybe I'm wrong, but that's how I see that night specifically.

Um.. my point was.. I was thinking: Occam's Razor implies that the simplest explanation is best, but even Eevee being Mafia requires the same kind of complicated scenarios that him not being Mafia requries.  So it's not really applicable.

[Witherweaver]

Yeah, I dunno:

Has anyone but me even reread Hydrad? He has been reasonably active (we've all been very active except for Jimm and maybe ash), and his posts are rich on content. The "scummy things" are just Hydrad things, unless you have something specific it's just the scummy vibe everyone in the world ever always gets from him for whatever reason.

This is a really ballsy thing to do to your partner.  The problem is it's, like, really convincing as misguided town.  Because Hydrad is always scummy, like, all the time. 

And, well, "his posts are rich on content" is basically just not true.  That makes it a little more likely for Eevee to just be incorrect about this.. as scum you'd want your arguments to be better.

But, maybe Eevee was grasping.

[Witherweaver]

AFK 3 mins.

[ashersky]

I guess here finding the remaining mafia has to be easier when looking at Hydrad than when looking at Ichi.  The remaining mafia and hydrad knew each other and talked to each other.  There's got to be more there.

[2.71828.....]

15 minutes

[ashersky]

Yeah, I dunno:

Has anyone but me even reread Hydrad? He has been reasonably active (we've all been very active except for Jimm and maybe ash), and his posts are rich on content. The "scummy things" are just Hydrad things, unless you have something specific it's just the scummy vibe everyone in the world ever always gets from him for whatever reason.

This is a really ballsy thing to do to your partner.  The problem is it's, like, really convincing as misguided town.  Because Hydrad is always scummy, like, all the time. 

And, well, "his posts are rich on content" is basically just not true.  That makes it a little more likely for Eevee to just be incorrect about this.. as scum you'd want your arguments to be better.

But, maybe Eevee was grasping.

You could make that argument about faust's defense of Ichi.  It's either really scummy or really misguided town.

The difference is that Hydrad had a partner who knew him and they hadn't lost anyone yet.  Ichi may or may not have been known to be the traitor, right?  Until he was lynched the setup wasn't known for sure.  So faust would have been defending a partner he wasn't positive about.

What did faust do during the hydrad lynch?

[Witherweaver]

Yeah, I dunno:

Has anyone but me even reread Hydrad? He has been reasonably active (we've all been very active except for Jimm and maybe ash), and his posts are rich on content. The "scummy things" are just Hydrad things, unless you have something specific it's just the scummy vibe everyone in the world ever always gets from him for whatever reason.

This is a really ballsy thing to do to your partner.  The problem is it's, like, really convincing as misguided town.  Because Hydrad is always scummy, like, all the time. 

And, well, "his posts are rich on content" is basically just not true.  That makes it a little more likely for Eevee to just be incorrect about this.. as scum you'd want your arguments to be better.

But, maybe Eevee was grasping.

You could make that argument about faust's defense of Ichi.  It's either really scummy or really misguided town.

The difference is that Hydrad had a partner who knew him and they hadn't lost anyone yet.  Ichi may or may not have been known to be the traitor, right?  Until he was lynched the setup wasn't known for sure.  So faust would have been defending a partner he wasn't positive about.

What did faust do during the hydrad lynch?

After Ichi claimed, Hydrad wagon started up and Faust moved his vote from Silverspawn to Jimmmmm.  He was, I think, mostly absent up through the lynch.

[Jimmmmm]

Crap, I have to choose. Leaning Eevee.

[Jimmmmm]

Vote: Eevee

[2.71828.....]

Thread Locked!

[2.71828.....]

Final Vote Count

Eevee (3): faust, ashersky, Jimmmmm
faust (1): Eevee

Not Voting (1): witherweaver

Eevee has been lynched!  He was Lukas, a Vanilla Townie

Please submit all night actions.  I will resume the game once I have processed all night actions or in 48 hours.  Whichever happens first.

[2.71828.....]

(unless anyone objects and wishes the game to reopen in 48 hours as per the rules)

[2.71828.....]

It was a restless night for everyone. Each person knew what they were up against.  They each knew the odds were stacked against them.  They all gathered in the same room and conferred together.  "two of us are stronger than any one of us on our own, so you everyone better behave and not do anything naughty!"  Everyone silently nodded, knowing that they were just moments from reaching the goal.  They stared into each others eyes as they each backed into a corner of the room.  Faust began, "you know, I really think the three of us should gang up on........" and then he was gone.  The three people remaining stared at the trapdoor that had opened into an endless chasm beneath him.  "I saw you twitch and open the trapdoor" one of them shouted at another.  "No it was you" protested the third.  A decision had to be made.

Faust has been killed!  He was Senator Thurman, a mafia goon.

Thread Unlocked!

Vote Count 5.0

Not Voting (3): ashersky, witherweaver, Jimmmmm

With 3 alive, it takes 2 to lynch. The deadline for Day 5 will be Friday, November 14, at 5:00 PM forum time. 

[Witherweaver]

Alright

Vote: Asherksy

[Witherweaver]

Or

Vote: Ashersky

[Witherweaver]

Really surprised we didn't lose.  I wish I would have insisted on the Faust lynch, but I guess we lucked out.

Jimmmm... not sure what your thoughts are.  I suppose the most damning thing against Ash was that he was Jailkept Night 1 and there was only one kill.  And I've kind of thought he was the SK all along, if not Eevee.

[Jimmmmm]

Well that... okay.

[Witherweaver]

I'd like to point out I've been on zero mislynches this game and 2 scum lynches. 
 
I don't remember who I was voting for Day 1.. maybe Eevee still. 

And I called Ichi/Faust back on Day 3

This isn't said to convince that I'm not SK (I'm not), I just feel that I had good reads this game and I'm bragging

[Witherweaver]

Lynch Ash lynch Ash!