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[Witherweaver]

the downside is not objective. why would you even say that.

What was the point of claiming VT at all?

Did you ask that? If you did, I didn't see it. Noone has asked me that since right in day1.

There is an answer for that, but it's very complicated, and very long. It's not even about this game, for the most part. And it also touches on a lot of more or less irrational feelings that I have about mafia. I'm not sure posting it is really a good idea. I was planing to do it after the game, if someone asked.

Because it's true.

Your thoughts behind claiming VT are relevant here because it gives us grounds to evaluate your claim now.

[silverspawn]

Does this mean Ichi's not scum?

No. I don't believe this part for one second. For your information Ichi, I would have made the exact same post if I had been a VT. I decided to do it as town before I got my pm.

[Eevee]

I guessed correctly what you were doing right away, and if I was scum, I would have killed you N1.

I believe this part of it.

And yet, Ichi DIDN'T kill silver night 1.

Does this mean Ichi's not scum?

Unless he is scum with ash and ash performed the kill. Yea yea I know,
but it's f.ds it's like a rule you always have to list every edge case.

[Eevee]

Would you have made it as scum as well?

[Witherweaver]

Okay, thought.  Why do we think ADK was killed Night 1?

[silverspawn]

Would you have made it as scum as well?

no, as scum I have mates, and I'd have to ask them before I do it (otherwise it'd really feel wrong) and then they'd ask me why I want to do it and then we have the same problem again.

I might have done it as a SK, but I probably would've been too scared to really do it.

[Witherweaver]

Also:

Vote Count 1.FINAL

Ichimaru (1): Jimmmmm,
Witherweaver (1): faust,
Eevee (3): Witherweaver, ashersky, XerxesPraelor
XerxesPraelor (4): Ichimaru Gin, Eevee, Hydrad, silverspawn, jotheonah, ADK

Final Vote Count

Jimmmmm (4): Hydrad, Ichimaru Gin, faust, Eevee
Hydrad (5): Witherweaver, jotheonah, silverspawn, ashersky, Jimmmmm

Hydrad has been lynched! He was Bernard, a Mafia Goon

Voting Xerxes:  Ichimaru Gin, Eevee, Hydrad, silverspawn, jotheonah, ADK
Not Voting Hydrad: Hydrad, Ichimaru Gin, faust, Eevee

Eevee and Ichi are common. 

It may be worth analyzing these votes in each case (Ichi, Silver, Jimmm scum) to look at plausibility. 

[Witherweaver]

Would you have made it as scum as well?

no, as scum I have mates, and I'd have to ask them before I do it (otherwise it'd really feel wrong) and then they'd ask me why I want to do it and then we have the same problem again.

I might have done it as a SK, but I probably would've been too scared to really do it.

You wouldn't if you were Traitor

[Eevee]

Also:

Vote Count 1.FINAL

Ichimaru (1): Jimmmmm,
Witherweaver (1): faust,
Eevee (3): Witherweaver, ashersky, XerxesPraelor
XerxesPraelor (4): Ichimaru Gin, Eevee, Hydrad, silverspawn, jotheonah, ADK

Final Vote Count

Jimmmmm (4): Hydrad, Ichimaru Gin, faust, Eevee
Hydrad (5): Witherweaver, jotheonah, silverspawn, ashersky, Jimmmmm

Hydrad has been lynched! He was Bernard, a Mafia Goon

Voting Xerxes:  Ichimaru Gin, Eevee, Hydrad, silverspawn, jotheonah, ADK
Not Voting Hydrad: Hydrad, Ichimaru Gin, faust, Eevee

Eevee and Ichi are common. 

It may be worth analyzing these votes in each case (Ichi, Silver, Jimmm scum) to look at plausibility.

I was on IG for the longest time both day 1 and 2 though.

[silverspawn]

Would you have made it as scum as well?

no, as scum I have mates, and I'd have to ask them before I do it (otherwise it'd really feel wrong) and then they'd ask me why I want to do it and then we have the same problem again.

I might have done it as a SK, but I probably would've been too scared to really do it.

You wouldn't if you were Traitor

right.

well, if I recall my thought process correctly, I actually thought "I'll do it as a VT" before the game, because I was theorizing about it, and eventually reached the conclusion that scum is probably slightly more likely to NK me because they think I'm covering up a role than they are not to NK me because they believe my claim. Then I got the role, I was jailkeeper, and then the game started, and I was disappointed and thought maybe I wouldn't have dared it anyway and I was frustrated and then kind of did it anyway. so, who knows what I would have done as SK.

[Witherweaver]

Also, why is it we're all looking at Ichi vs. Silver instead of Ichi vs. Silver vs. Jimmmm? 

[silverspawn]

right. so I think I was asking "do you think Jimmm could pull this off as scum" at some point and noone answered that.

do you think he could pull it off? it's kind of impressive. and I can't read him because I only know his lurking self.

[Witherweaver]

right. so I think I was asking "do you think Jimmm could pull this off as scum" at some point and noone answered that.

do you think he could pull it off? it's kind of impressive. and I can't read him because I only know his lurking self.

Impressive... why?  What's different about him than Ichi or you?

[silverspawn]

mostly this:

That's some very insightful analysis. I appreciate that you're getting more involved, Jimmmmm.

Thanks.
When we only had 3 PR claims and it didn't look like we were going to have another one, I could be certain (based on jo and Ichi being ICs and Ichi claiming Psychologist) that jo was the Detective. He couldn't know for sure I was the Commuter unless he assumed no SK. I was debating the merits of claiming Detective and faking some results (dangerous I know but worst case my flip would clear it up). The point being that jo would, knowing that I'm Town and lying about my role, see what I was doing and figure that I knew he was the Detective and I was therefore the Commuter, and then he would claim Commuter so that our claims didn't contradict scum's add-on. The point of all of this being that I would then hopefully draw the NK, giving jo an extra Night to get results.
Of course, jo may not have received the message I would have been trying to send. It felt a bit like Hanabi.

Wow... I think a post like that would be really, really hard to fake as scum. I'm will assume you're town for now. Also, nice thinking. That would have been awesome had it worked out.

my dislike for the post aside, I do agree with faust that it's hard to fake. At least I agree to some extend. I wouldn't say it's "really, really hard"

And then there was his setup analysis where he made a case against lynching ichi, even though not lynching Ichi could mean lynching him instead.

I can't say much about me here. But Ichi really hasn't posted anything comparable.

[Ichimaru Gin]

Does this mean Ichi's not scum?

No. I don't believe this part for one second. For your information Ichi, I would have made the exact same post if I had been a VT. I decided to do it as town before I got my pm.

How does this help me know your alignment?
You say you decided to claim VT before you even started this game for some mysterious reason. Again, how does this information help?

What I have to go off of is setup analysis and your posts. From what I have played with you so far, it seems perfectly plausible that you would lie as town for whatever reason--but I'm sure you anticipated that people would think that. So it leaves me with a big fat WIFOM. Your arguments as to the effectiveness or pro-townness of your lying seem sincere, I just don't buy them. Look at the situation we are in now. If you had not fakeclaimed VT, I am sure that people would trust your claim much more. So really all that the fakeclaim did is discredit you. And ironically, you want to pin the "blame" on other people for not thinking that your wondrous lie was the towniest thing ever that will singlehandedly win us the game. As has already been pointed out scum lies, not town.

This does not mean that there is never a situation that lying as town might be beneficial. I've entertained the idea myself in recent games. However, your fakeclaim here is clearly not one of those exceptions to the rule--no matter how much you say it is. So, "suck it up" and just admit you made a mistake. It would certainly improve my read on you. I think scum has to defend their choice violently here just like you have once they realize they've screwed up.

[Witherweaver]

Does this mean Ichi's not scum?

No. I don't believe this part for one second. For your information Ichi, I would have made the exact same post if I had been a VT. I decided to do it as town before I got my pm.

How does this help me know your alignment?
You say you decided to claim VT before you even started this game for some mysterious reason. Again, how does this information help?

What I have to go off of is setup analysis and your posts. From what I have played with you so far, it seems perfectly plausible that you would lie as town for whatever reason--but I'm sure you anticipated that people would think that. So it leaves me with a big fat WIFOM. Your arguments as to the effectiveness or pro-townness of your lying seem sincere, I just don't buy them. Look at the situation we are in now. If you had not fakeclaimed VT, I am sure that people would trust your claim much more. So really all that the fakeclaim did is discredit you. And ironically, you want to pin the "blame" on other people for not thinking that your wondrous lie was the towniest thing ever that will singlehandedly win us the game. As has already been pointed out scum lies, not town.

This does not mean that there is never a situation that lying as town might be beneficial. I've entertained the idea myself in recent games. However, your fakeclaim here is clearly not one of those exceptions to the rule--no matter how much you say it is. So, "suck it up" and just admit you made a mistake. It would certainly improve my read on you. I think scum has to defend their choice violently here just like you have once they realize they've screwed up.

... if your read "improves" on Silver... where does that leave you?

[silverspawn]

no matter how much you say it is. So, "suck it up" and just admit you made a mistake.

I never said it was not a mistake. I said that you are making terrible arguments for why it is a mistake, and none of them apply. An argument can still be bad, even if the thing it's arguing for is correct. If I say Scout is a weak card because it puts the cards back instead of discarding them, that's a horrible argument, despite the fact that scout is in fact a weak card.

that said, I don't think it was a mistake. I heavily implied that the claim wasn't really about this particular game, so you obviously can't judge whether or not it was successful. Not every action I take is just about improving my chances in the particular game it is in. I consider other things, e.g. future games. The easiest to explain motivation of my claim was that I wanted to become less predictable. You may recall that Voltaire basically caught me in GoT mafia after one day, even though I really tried hard to play exactly like I had done previously.

[Witherweaver]

no matter how much you say it is. So, "suck it up" and just admit you made a mistake.

I never said it was not a mistake. I said that you are making terrible arguments for why it is a mistake, and none of them apply. An argument can still be bad, even if the thing it's arguing for is correct. If I say Scout is a weak card because it puts the cards back instead of discarding them, that's a horrible argument, despite the fact that scout is in fact a weak card.

that said, I don't think it was a mistake. I heavily implied that the claim wasn't really about this particular game, so you obviously can't judge whether or not it was successful. Not every action I take is just about improving my chances in the particular game it is in. I consider other things, e.g. future games. The easiest to explain motivation of my claim was that I wanted to become less predictable. You may recall that Voltaire basically caught me in GoT mafia after one day, even though I really tried hard to play exactly like I had done previously.

I never said this, but now I'm going to go ahead and say it.  Pointless post count +1.

[Ichimaru Gin]

Does this mean Ichi's not scum?

No. I don't believe this part for one second. For your information Ichi, I would have made the exact same post if I had been a VT. I decided to do it as town before I got my pm.

How does this help me know your alignment?
You say you decided to claim VT before you even started this game for some mysterious reason. Again, how does this information help?

What I have to go off of is setup analysis and your posts. From what I have played with you so far, it seems perfectly plausible that you would lie as town for whatever reason--but I'm sure you anticipated that people would think that. So it leaves me with a big fat WIFOM. Your arguments as to the effectiveness or pro-townness of your lying seem sincere, I just don't buy them. Look at the situation we are in now. If you had not fakeclaimed VT, I am sure that people would trust your claim much more. So really all that the fakeclaim did is discredit you. And ironically, you want to pin the "blame" on other people for not thinking that your wondrous lie was the towniest thing ever that will singlehandedly win us the game. As has already been pointed out scum lies, not town.

This does not mean that there is never a situation that lying as town might be beneficial. I've entertained the idea myself in recent games. However, your fakeclaim here is clearly not one of those exceptions to the rule--no matter how much you say it is. So, "suck it up" and just admit you made a mistake. It would certainly improve my read on you. I think scum has to defend their choice violently here just like you have once they realize they've screwed up.

... if your read "improves" on Silver... where does that leave you?

I agree with joth that we shouldn't be lynching out of claimed PR's today. I am not a particularly adept person with analyzing setups, so I am unsure exactly how much of Ash's analysis is true given that some people disagree with it. However, if it really is Me orSilver than my choice as to who is scum is clear. It's possible that other people are lying and/or silver lied about his role a second time (though of course very unlikely).

PPE: 2

[Witherweaver]

I agree with joth that we shouldn't be lynching out of claimed PR's today. I am not a particularly adept person with analyzing setups, so I am unsure exactly how much of Ash's analysis is true given that some people disagree with it. However, if it really is Me orSilver than my choice as to who is scum is clear. It's possible that other people are lying and/or silver lied about his role a second time (though of course very unlikely).

PPE: 2

If?  Lay out for me your thought process here.

[Witherweaver]

Sigh.

Vote: Ichimaru

I'm calling Ichi/Faust now.  Someone prove me wrong.

I think it's L-1 too.

[Ichimaru Gin]

I agree with joth that we shouldn't be lynching out of claimed PR's today. I am not a particularly adept person with analyzing setups, so I am unsure exactly how much of Ash's analysis is true given that some people disagree with it. However, if it really is Me orSilver than my choice as to who is scum is clear. It's possible that other people are lying and/or silver lied about his role a second time (though of course very unlikely).

PPE: 2

If?  Lay out for me your thought process here.

I said I'm not the strongest with setups. However, going back and looking at the analysis the Ash and others have given, it looks very much like Me or Silver. I was confused about this though, given that some people want to lynch neither of us today--which doesn't make much sense if one of us is 100% lying scum. So that made me wonder if that's actually the way it was.

[2.71828.....]

Vote Count 3.3
 
silverspawn (1): Jimmmmm
Ichimaru Gin (4): ashersky, Eevee, silverspawn, witherweaver (L-1)
Eevee (2): jotheonah, faust

Not Voting (1): Ichimaru Gin

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.  The deadline for Day 3 will be Monday, October 27 at 5 pm forum time.

[Ichimaru Gin]

Ah. And I see those arguments are dependent upon Jimmmmm being scum and it really being setup #6 --which looks pretty unlikely at this point.

[Ichimaru Gin]

It has to be me or Jimmmmm then. Not me or silver.

I know that none of you guys can know that I'm telling the truth, but here are the possibilities from my POV.

1. Detective, 1-shot Commuter, Goon Cop; 1-shot Investigation Immune + Serial Killer
2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
3. 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
4. 1-shot BP Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
5. Watcher, 1-shot BP Townie, 1-shot BP Commuter; 2-shot JOAT
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer
8. Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune

I can eliminate all of these options out of hand since I know my own role. I can then eliminate #2 and #8, since they include multiple roles which no one has claimed. That leaves:

4. 1-shot BP Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer

#4 is pretty much out since Jimmmmm claimed just 1-shot commuter without the BP and no one counterclaimed.

Leaving #6 as the only possible setup. joth, silver and I are the Detective, Jailkeeper and Psychologist respectively and Jimmmmm is lying to try and keep us from becoming IC's.

vote: Jimmmmm

I don't know how things got incorrectly framed as me or silver, but this is the only possible setup since I know my own role. Barring some insaness with other town PR's fakeclaiming VT, it has to be setup #6.