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[Eevee]

You said it yourself, if you were us, you'd lynch yourself. How can you possibly find it proof of me being scum that I think it's far more likely that you are scum than it is that we have a SK?

I said that, and then you voted for me. Both the "then" and the "you" are suspicious about that. Why should you be the first person to find that scummy? Why not faust, WW, ash, joth? And why didn't you vote for me before I posted it? It just looks like you took it as an excuse.

But even if that argument doesn't convince you, fact remains that a no-kill happened after I imprisoned you. At LyLo, that's more than enough reason to lynch you. There is no way I can change to someone else. That would just be horrible play.

yes, because I didn't realize the only setup where you could be truthful would be one with a serial killer before you said it!

[Eevee]

You said it yourself, if you were us, you'd lynch yourself. How can you possibly find it proof of me being scum that I think it's far more likely that you are scum than it is that we have a SK?

I said that, and then you voted for me. Both the "then" and the "you" are suspicious about that. Why should you be the first person to find that scummy? Why not faust, WW, ash, joth? And why didn't you vote for me before I posted it? It just looks like you took it as an excuse.

But even if that argument doesn't convince you, fact remains that a no-kill happened after I imprisoned you. At LyLo, that's more than enough reason to lynch you. There is no way I can change to someone else. That would just be horrible play.

Right, that's all true if you are what you claim. What I'm saying is you must be lying.

[silverspawn]

Right, that's all true if you are what you claim. What I'm saying is you must be lying.

Of course you're saying that, you're the SK.

[Eevee]

I don't think you are making sense, but arguing with scum tends to be pretty pointless. It's not like you are ever going to convince them to confess.

In my situation, would you lynch for someone other than you?

No. Of course not. So, really, saying that I don't make sense is pretty absurd.

I mean you have to stick to your guns. I just don't think the reasons you are giving make any sense. My explanation for that is that they aren't real because you aren't actually a jailkeeper. You created these "damning circumstances" for me with your claim. I'm saying I don't think your claim is truthful.

And we obviously aren't ever going to convince each other. I guess both sides have laid their argument for the others to consider now.

[Eevee]

I mean, is there any scenario where we are both truthful here? Genuine question.

[jotheonah]

That's some very insightful analysis. I appreciate that you're getting more involved, Jimmmmm.

Thanks.
When we only had 3 PR claims and it didn't look like we were going to have another one, I could be certain (based on jo and Ichi being ICs and Ichi claiming Psychologist) that jo was the Detective. He couldn't know for sure I was the Commuter unless he assumed no SK. I was debating the merits of claiming Detective and faking some results (dangerous I know but worst case my flip would clear it up). The point being that jo would, knowing that I'm Town and lying about my role, see what I was doing and figure that I knew he was the Detective and I was therefore the Commuter, and then he would claim Commuter so that our claims didn't contradict scum's add-on. The point of all of this being that I would then hopefully draw the NK, giving jo an extra Night to get results.
Of course, jo may not have received the message I would have been trying to send. It felt a bit like Hanabi.

Sir, I am way too dumb for that level of play.

[silverspawn]

I mean, is there any scenario where we are both truthful here? Genuine question.

yea, there is. If there wasn't, I would know 100% that you're scum. I'm only about 95%.

[Eevee]

I mean, is there any scenario where we are both truthful here? Genuine question.

yea, there is. If there wasn't, I would know 100% that you're scum. I'm only about 95%.

For me it would require that either I was shot by both factions or that Jimm commuted and one/both factions shot him?

Both feel so improbable for me, whereas you being scum would explain everything quite neatly (except the missing kill? Is there any other way than Jimmm's commuting?).

[jotheonah]

Ok, another point to consider. We have 8 surviving townies -- 4 claimed PRs and 4 claimed VTs. If there's no SK, we know there's one scum in each group.

BUT if there's a serial killer, we know that there are two scum in the VT group. Given that, lynching a VT gives us a 50/50 shot at scum, even not taking into account the evidence. If we lynch Eevee, the scummiest VT in the scenario where there is an SK, I just really like our chances, plus then scum has to leave alive either me or silver, which is quite helpful.

vote: Eevee

[Eevee]

Gah.

I'm losing this game for town.

[Eevee]

And it's a horrible horrible feeling.

[Eevee]

But it's my word against silver's. I don't know what I can do about it.

[jotheonah]

wait a minute, unvote

[jotheonah]

I want to hear e's response about the JK/investigation interaction. That's pretty important.

[Eevee]

I feel there is a lot of information and the key to all of this might lie there somewhere, but it's pretty confusing.

[Witherweaver]

Well, a lot happened.

Um.. Joth gets no result.  Possibilities:

(1) Joth is Roleblocked by Mafia Traitor
(2) Joth's Target (Eevee, right?) used an investigation immune.  This means either SK with JOAT or Mafia.  I haven't been following all the setup possibilities.  Is 1-shot investigation immune addon to mafia possible?  What does it imply about our claims?
(3) Eevee is lying Town and used 1-shot commuter (and therefore Jimmmm is scum), but I refuse to believe this possibility.

That's it, right?  Eevee still could be Jailkept by Silver, it just doesn't explain Joth's result.

I think (1) is just as likely as (2).  Joth's posts did kind of indicate he had a PR, and he was incredibly townie, so he's a natural choice for Roleblocking.

Gut-wise, I feel worse about Ichi.  Eevee doesn't seem so bad after the latest bunch of posts.  Jimmmm's argument on Ichi vs. Silverspawn makes sense, but my gut tells me Ichi is more of a liar-liar-pants-on-fire than Silver is.  (Despite Silver already admitting to lying~)

Ichi targeted Joth when he had no good reason to.  If (1) is true, Joth really was targeted by Roleblocker.  Ichi could be afraid of Watcher so he wants to admit his target truthfully. (Did he know there was no Watcher when he made his claim?)  I have to check plausibility in that, but

Vote: Ichi

for now.  I've done exactly this, as scum, in Innovation.  I had to fake claim a target on someone because I really did target them and I was afraid they were Watched.

[faust]

If silver is lying about being the jailkeeper, where could tonight's kill have gone?

Three options:

1. Scum targeted Jimmmmm who commuted. Given what Jimmmmm said so far, I doubt he commuted, so that not it.
2. The Traitor accidentally roleblocked his partner.
3. Scum chose to no kill for WIFOM and to make silver's claim believable.

I think 3 is most likely, though 2 is also an option.

[faust]

Well, a lot happened.

Um.. Joth gets no result.  Possibilities:

(1) Joth is Roleblocked by Mafia Traitor
(2) Joth's Target (Eevee, right?) used an investigation immune.  This means either SK with JOAT or Mafia.  I haven't been following all the setup possibilities.  Is 1-shot investigation immune addon to mafia possible?  What does it imply about our claims?
(3) Eevee is lying Town and used 1-shot commuter (and therefore Jimmmm is scum), but I refuse to believe this possibility.

That's it, right?  Eevee still could be Jailkept by Silver, it just doesn't explain Joth's result.

I think (1) is just as likely as (2).  Joth's posts did kind of indicate he had a PR, and he was incredibly townie, so he's a natural choice for Roleblocking.

Gut-wise, I feel worse about Ichi.  Eevee doesn't seem so bad after the latest bunch of posts.  Jimmmm's argument on Ichi vs. Silverspawn makes sense, but my gut tells me Ichi is more of a liar-liar-pants-on-fire than Silver is.  (Despite Silver already admitting to lying~)

Ichi targeted Joth when he had no good reason to.  If (1) is true, Joth really was targeted by Roleblocker.  Ichi could be afraid of Watcher so he wants to admit his target truthfully. (Did he know there was no Watcher when he made his claim?)  I have to check plausibility in that, but

Vote: Ichi

for now.  I've done exactly this, as scum, in Innovation.  I had to fake claim a target on someone because I really did target them and I was afraid they were Watched.

For completeness: (4) The SK jailkept joth.

[faust]

I don't really think we're in a situation for gut reads. If Ichi is mafia, he would know that there's no Watcher.

[faust]

I mean, is there any scenario where we are both truthful here? Genuine question.

SK performed a non-killing action, mafia targeted you (or was roleblocked, I guess?)

[Witherweaver]

Possibilities on no kill:

(I) NO SK:

(1) Eevee was the target by Mafia and Silver is telling the truth.  Doesn't make a lot of sense.
(2) Eevee was the killer and Silver is telling the truth.  Makes more sense.
(3) Jimmmm was the target and commuted
(4) Traitor did not know Mafia and Roleblocked killer.  (Unlikely I think.)

(II) SK:
(1) Eevee was the target by SK and Silver is telling the truth.  Still seems unlikely.. does it make sense for SK to target Eevee here?
(2) All of (1--4) by Mafia and SK chose to not kill in order to use an ability.  (Investigation immunity, for instance.  Or is that passive?)
(3) All of (1--4) by Mafia and SK also shot the same target.  Also unlikely.

All these cases are getting a bit rough.  Can someone make a table of each PR lying and what it means for the setup, specifically SK/no SK? 

PPE: Faust.  Also has a point on Jailkeeping that can be added to above.

[faust]

A different way to look at the situation is this: If Eevee is Mafia, he is almost certainly a Goon (otherwise the whole killing argument just doesn't make sense). I think we would be better off if we manage to lynch the Traitor/Roleblocker, or SK if that exists, with an Eevee lynch that's pretty much guaranteed to fail.

[Witherweaver]

I don't really think we're in a situation for gut reads. If Ichi is mafia, he would know that there's no Watcher.

Okay, I guess that's correct. 

Unvote

Maybe "half clearing Joth" makes sense.. but Joth has done zero scummy things the entire game.

[Eevee]

If silver is lying about being the jailkeeper, where could tonight's kill have gone?

Three options:

1. Scum targeted Jimmmmm who commuted. Given what Jimmmmm said so far, I doubt he commuted, so that not it.
2. The Traitor accidentally roleblocked his partner.
3. Scum chose to no kill for WIFOM and to make silver's claim believable.

I think 3 is most likely, though 2 is also an option.

None of those feel very likely though. Man. Seems something unlikely has happened.

[Eevee]

What do you make of the fact that it's very hard for both me and silver to be town? Like very, very hard.