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[Eevee]

I'm VT. I'm sorry I didn't claim yesterday, I was out in a party and didn't want to make a mistake.

[faust]

So three ICs, yes? That means we look for scum among me/ash/silver/Eevee/WW. Of those, I find silver and Eevee to be the scummiest. Not sure which one I prefer. I had a town read on Eevee earlier, but the way he defended Hydrad was odd. Still, silver was scummy before, behaved scummy towards the deadline, and is still scummy now.

Vote: silverspawn

[faust]

It is notable that Psychologist in the game means that the option "Traitor knows mafia" is erased. So it will be harder to detect the Traitor, I guess. Wagon analysis is not as useful here.

[faust]

I guess we ultimately want to know which bonus scum got, so we should probably mass claim tomorrow?

[ashersky]

2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
4. 1-shot BP Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer
8. Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune

Here are the possible setups.

Lack of kills overall point toward no SK.  If a JK exists, knowing who's been jailed would be huge, given lack of kill.  But so does commuter...  Goon Cop can quasi clear folks, as can the Detective.

I assume no positive results for anyone or we'd have heard by now.

I agree with Faust on reads, eevee/silver seem most likely.

[ashersky]

Vote: Eevee based on wagons/end of day 2.

[Eevee]

I won't have time to defend myself until tomorrow. Hydrad flipping scum was a positive surprise, but I understand it looks bad for me.

[Witherweaver]

From memory, Eevee and Faust looked bad.  Ash was looking bad, but I guess he did decide between Hydrad and Jimmmmm?

Not sure about Silver.

This is based on how I remember them talking of Hydrad.  I could be misremembering.

[silverspawn]

Okay, looks like I have to come clean.

My first post in this game was a lie. I'm a PR. Which means, there is scum among the claimed PR's in this game. I don't know why scum claimed PR here, but there's no doubt that they did.

This all would have been so much easier if we just did a massclaim. After everyone claimed his role, I could have known for sure who was lying. I would have full claimed, and we catch scum. But no, ash just had to suggest this half-claim plan.

It doesn't matter though. We need to claim now. Everyone with a PR needs to state his role. And I will full-claim last.

If you think I am lying, think about this. I have zero motivation to do this as town. I'm not actually in trouble. There is no way I do this as town. But if that's not enough, then at least follow me for today, and if we lose even one town, you can lynch me tomorrow. We won't though. Just do what I say here, and we win.

[silverspawn]

Also, Jimmmm needs to claim first, then Joth.

[faust]

If you think I am lying, think about this. I have zero motivation to do this as town. I'm not actually in trouble. There is no way I do this as town.

Well thanks, this makes things very easy.

[silverspawn]

If you think I am lying, think about this. I have zero motivation to do this as town. I'm not actually in trouble. There is no way I do this as town.

Well thanks, this makes things very easy.

*scum

[faust]

I mean, it's not even a mistyping... the quoted sentence makes sense as is and wouldn't make sense if you replace town by scum.

[silverspawn]

I mean, it's not even a mistyping... the quoted sentence makes sense as is and wouldn't make sense if you replace town by scum.

are we really talking about this?

I have zero motivation to do this as scum. I'm not actually in trouble. There is no way I do this as scum

[faust]

I mean, it's not even a mistyping... the quoted sentence makes sense as is and wouldn't make sense if you replace town by scum.

are we really talking about this?

I have zero motivation to do this as scum. I'm not actually in trouble. There is no way I do this as scum

The obvious motivation is: You want to prevent three town PRs from becoming ICs. Well, that's a pretty good motivation.

[faust]

On the other hand, town lying is almost always bad (there are, as always on f.ds, edge cases - this is not one of them). You have zero motivation to lie as town.

[silverspawn]

The obvious motivation is: You want to prevent three town PRs from becoming ICs. Well, that's a pretty good motivation.

it's not. there are two ways this can go

one: two PR claim roles that can't be in the same setup. if that's the case, you have proof right there that one is lying
two: one PR claims my role. If that's the case, you know 100% that either he is scum, or I am. That makes the other two players 100% IC, and you have a field of 2 players with 1 scum in them.

either case is good for town.

[faust]

The obvious motivation is: You want to prevent three town PRs from becoming ICs. Well, that's a pretty good motivation.

it's not. there are two ways this can go

one: two PR claim roles that can't be in the same setup. if that's the case, you have proof right there that one is lying
two: one PR claims my role. If that's the case, you know 100% that either he is scum, or I am. That makes the other two players 100% IC, and you have a field of 2 players with 1 scum in them.

either case is good for town.

There are cases where you can have three claims which can't all be true, but each two can be in the same setup, I think... let me check.

[silverspawn]

oh I guess and

three: 2 of the 3 other PR's claim the same role. That case is like two, only you know scum is one of these two. that's just as good as two.

[silverspawn]

The obvious motivation is: You want to prevent three town PRs from becoming ICs. Well, that's a pretty good motivation.

it's not. there are two ways this can go

one: two PR claim roles that can't be in the same setup. if that's the case, you have proof right there that one is lying
two: one PR claims my role. If that's the case, you know 100% that either he is scum, or I am. That makes the other two players 100% IC, and you have a field of 2 players with 1 scum in them.

either case is good for town.

There are cases where you can have three claims which can't all be true, but each two can be in the same setup, I think... let me check.

Okay, I was not accounting for that possibility. But it looks like that's not possible

2. Watcher, Jailkeeper
4. 1-shot BP Commuter, Detective
8. Goon Cop, Bodyguard

and Psychologist in all of them.

these are 6 different roles

[faust]

Okay, some setup analysis.

Look at the 3 roles Psychologist/JK/1-shot Commuter.

Each 2 of them can be in the same setup:

Col2: Det/JK/Psy
Col3: Com/JK/Det
Row4: Com/Psy/Det

So if we have these 3 roles claimed, finding out who is lying might take up to 2 mislynches. Guess what? Two mislynches is all scum needs in order to win.

PPE: I think you left one out.

[faust]

I think that's the only pairing though.

[jotheonah]

Yeah the guy who lied as town in his very first post of the game is definitely the one coming off squeaky clean here.

[silverspawn]

this pairing?

6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer

that's not possible, because it has a SK. unless you are telling me that we have 1-kill and 0-kill with a SK in the setup

[faust]

Okay, let me think. THINK...

I believe if anyone has one of the roles listed below, they should claim immediately.

Watcher, 1-shot BP, Goon Cop, Bodyguard.

Reason: Each of these appears only once in the scheme. Thus, any other PR in the setup is able to confirm or counterclaim such a claim.