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[Kuildeous]

That was a joke, though I could see where it wouldn't look that way. Smiley goes here.

[Kuildeous]

So, my reactions to people have shifted lately. I’ll try to frame this as, “If X is Mafia, then he knows I’m not…”

Bozzball – It doesn’t matter if he knows I’m town or not. He hasn’t had the time to really do much to stir up trouble.

Voltgloss – If Voltgloss knows I’m town, then he did a fine job of hanging back in Day 2. Now that there is inertia, he has come out against me. He won’t be seen as the instigator, though. He very well could be a hapless townie getting caught in a Mafia plot. Despite his gradual turn toward the Kuildeous bandwagon, it seems fairly likely that Voltgloss is indeed a townie. His analysis has exposed quite a bit. Might still be a Mafia with an awesome ploy.

Galzria – If Galzria knows I’m town, then he is practically signing his own death certificate by leading the charge against me. It seems unlikely that the Mafia would make such a move. So I labeled him as a townie. I searched to see when Galzria started the great anti-Kuildeous jihad of 2012 to see who may have subtly inserted that idea into his mind. The disturbing thing is that there was no catalyst. He went this route on his own. So, either Galzria has a self-defeatist knack of targeting innocent people or he is indeed Mafia trying a risky gambit knowing that the gambit’s obviousness places him above suspicion.

Jotheonah – If Jjotheonah knows I’m town, then he is playing it perfectly. He started off in agreement with Galzria that I should be lynched. He did stop to ask for Galzria’s reasons. This looks like an emerging shred of sanity in a crazed townsperson, but it could be a ploy to pin everything onto Galzria so that he looks more guilty in Day 3 for leading the charge. Still suspicious of J.

Insomniac – If Insomniac knows I’m town, then he’s playing a far higher-level game than I expect. Rather than jump on the bandwagon, he barrels down on Robz888. He started off targeting Voltgloss and Robz888, but he’s moved on to Robz888, even though Robz is now pretty low on everyone else’s list (even lower on my list). He didn’t even look up during my crucifixion. If he’s indeed Mafia, then he is trying to win us over by not hopping on the obvious bandwagon. It’s possible, but I’m getting a fairly strong town read off him.

Robz888 – If Robz knows I’m town, then he took a very safe route by not accusing me early in Day 2. He would have waited until the rabid townspeople found a scapegoat. Now they have found out, and Robz finally realized that the innocent person has acted against the standards of the game. Now he can justify the finger-pointing without looking like he’s involved. I’m not wholly convinced by Insomniac’s case against Robz, but I do find it interesting that Insomniac focuses so heavily on Robz while ignoring the others (including me). At the very least, I have reconsidered his role in Morgrim’s death and the convenient recognition that I don’t look at innocent as he first thought.  He played it way too safe with me and even threw me under the bus by flat-out saying that he didn’t suspect me, when everyone should have been a suspect. I feel comfortable dismissing Galzria because of his actions. Robz888 did not have anything to base his dismissal of me on.

Therefore, I feel even more confident to vote: Robz888. If he is Mafia, then Insomniac did us a favor by redirecting attention to him. If he is not Mafia, then we can pretty much rule that Insomniac is; his sacrifice would turn a 3-2 split into 2-1. 

[Galzria]

The "balls-to-the-wall crusade" against you was never my intent. I stated my beliefs and have conviction in them, but I didn't think I would need to restate them over, and over, and over...

I don't MIND, but I fully understand how it could feel like I'm on a witch hunt for your head. I just think you've made the biggest case to be Mafia. At the end of the day, that's it. Will I die tomorrow if I'm wrong? I can see why I would. It would mean instant game over and that we got out played (or at least I did) badly.

But right now I stand by my beliefs, and will until I'm proven right (or as you claim, wrong). Your attempts at "who could know I'm innocent" intrigue me.

Are you misleading with your suspicions of Robz? Why change from Voltgloss? You seemed so sure Voltgloss was Mafia. Did you drop him to protect him? He's coming at you hard now, and you switch targets. Again.

Hmm, I wonder how likely a Volt-Kuil pairing is...

[Galzria]

I'm not doing any voting again until the Robz analysis is in. Especially if Volt makes his vote in the morning. Still plenty of time, no need to cut short opportunities to fish for information.

[Robz888]

I'm afraid that Bozzball will put a vote on me for saying this (as he did on Day 1)  .... but I am working on my responses right now!!!

[Galzria]

Bah! Hurry up! I need to go to sleep, but want to hear your thoughts first so I can think on them! Hurry hurry hurry! 

[Robz888]

Why Insomniac is wrong about me

I think there are valid reasons to suspect me. For instance, the big reason is that I am most responsible for the town wrongly lynching Morgrim.

However, Insomniac has proposed a number of reasons that don’t hold water when scrutinized. Let’s look at them.

Robz888 - For being the last one other than Morgrim to vote for Morgrim, he is the catalyst that pushed Morgrims lynch to the top,
   Additionally for someone who always comes out guns blazing he really didnt

I place votes more carefully than anyone else in this game. As I’ve repeatedly explained, I had planned to vote for Morgrim even before the 2nd or 3rd votes were placed. I just like to take my time with actual voting. Then these votes materialized from others, and some of these voters asked if I would hold off. I did, out of respect for them, even though I really shouldn’t have been required to do so. If anybody was unsure about their vote, they shouldn’t have cast it in the first place. That’s my view on voting. So I don’t think it’s fair to fault the order of my vote. And I couldn’t have known that Morgrim would off himself, so pinning that on me is hardly fair. Feel free to pin the fact that we went after him in the first place on me, but... the timing of my vote doesn’t seem like good criticism. If you insist on that point, you should count my vote as coming in just around Voltgloss’s, which is when his support of several of my arguments about Morgrim first convinced me I was correct. I didn’t vote then out of a habit that is good and useful and courteous to the town.

Robz: Wow this guy has made me more suspicious of him, everyone has pointed out how a wide spread suspicion is bad for the town and Robz has pointed
a finger at everyone, did we all need to be looked at yes, but Robz has tried to get the town to continue to suspect everyone and I'm not sure thats
good? If you were going to have your conviction at this point Robz where would it be? HIGHLY suspicious

This is a false characterization of me. “Everyone” has not pointed out how widespread suspicions are bad for the town. I said that. And it’s not even exactly what I said, or at least not what I meant. When I was talking about convictions and hedging.... look, some hedging is unavoidable, because this game is hard. I didn’t mean to say that it’s only okay to ever suspect one person at a time and never waver. I just meant that when voting is happening and accusations are made, it would be very easy for the mafia to go along with any potential lymching plan that doesn’t kill them. But townspeople can and should hedge sometimes, and mafia players will often act like townspeople with strong convictions. It’s just that in general, if you say so and such person is slightly suspicious, and so is this person, and so is this person, and so is this person, you are pretty useless. Similarly, if you cast a vote but publicly (and belatedly) declare your strong reservations about it, that’s mafia-style hedging.

I don’t think I have been more wide-ranging in my suspicions on Day 2 than other players. DOes someone really disagree with that? My suspicions have been evolving, and the people I suspect now are somewhat different than the ones I suspected at the beginning of the round. But I think even a cynical player who suspects me quite a bit would conclude that my thoughts about people are honest and based on solid evidence, and that I play with conviction.

(Now, there was at the time some confusion about which days we were talking about, and I think I mistakenly thought he was talking about Day 1 when I quibbled about his comments on Volt and Galz, so I was wrong to call him out there. But what he said about me was wrong.)

Pointing out that widespread suspicion is bad while pointing a finger at everyone? Even if not everyone is saying it (A lot of people have brought it up since you, I had originally thought you posted it but couldnt find the post so I didnt want to say that you said it and then pointed a finger without evidence).

And post number 254 is where you point a finger at everyone, you analyze everyone which is fine but you proceed to suspect most of us of being mafia or at least the possibility is entertained

More of this. Maybe you just misunderstood my post. I wasn’t saying “everyone is mafia!” I was listing reasons why each person could be mafia. I believe that is helpful, and I have appreciated the other folks who have done it.

RE: Bozzball, Bozzballs 'quit' has removed MUCH attention from him and seems like it would be a VERY good way for mafia to draw fire away from him and could have been advised of that move by a smart player

For these reasons I STRONGLY believe that Robz and Bozzball are the mafia.

Vote: Robz888

Oh, nonsense. Really, that idea is nonsense. Volt nicely explained why it’s not likely (check out his post a few back, it was great). For the reasons he said, and I will add another: Look, Bozzball voted me out of absolutely nowhere, right off the bat on Day 1. It was after I made a short post saying I was playing catchup and would post in a minute. So what’s my master mafia plan there? Tell my newbie co-mafia to place a vote on me for absolutely, transparently, no reason? Clearly, I didn’t explain how he would ever defend that vote if pressed on it--since it’s entirely indefensible. Bozzball is lucky that vote didn’t bite him more strongly round 1, but it had major potential to hurt him--or me, if it caught on for some odd reason. It’s ludicrous that he would do that if I was his co-mafia, and it’s ludicrous that I would tell him to do it. All it did was cast unwelcome suspicion on one or both of us.

Bozzball is the person I think is most innocent because he hasn’t expressed much interest in this game, and if he had a role, I would expect that he would. I know other people feel similarly about him. It could be a mafia strategy, but I just doubt it.

In my next post, I will give my new suspicions. If you want the already available version, just read Volt’s post. Unsurprisingly, his thoughts are very similar to mine. At least I will be able to provide evidence that I had some of those thoughts before him. I say that not becuase I suspect he is stealing my thoughts, but because I don’t want to be accused of stealing his.

[jotheonah]

ok, 2 things before I turn in.

#1 The near unanimous suspicion of Kuildeous is bothering the hell out of me. If he's mafia, why isn't anyone coming to his aid? The mafia are smarter than this, and I can't believe they'd give up their advantage this easily! Unless Insomniac is his partner and is trying to backdoor-defend by trying to get us on the Robz-Bozz bandwagon instead. But overall, I'm not buying it.  I was strongly leaning toward Kuildeous's guilt, but the eleventh hour is giving me misgivings very similar to my round 1 doubts about Morgrim. For the record, I am voicing them NOW, before it's too late. I somehow expect I'll be accused of mafia-hedging because of this later on, but so be it. I am no longer completely convinced of K's guilt. I will take another look at everything in the morning. I may yet come back around on him.

#2 If it's the only way to get you to stop lurking and give us some kind of read on you, Vote: Bozzball. I encourage others to pressure-vote bozzball into saying something; our lack of information on him is really crippling toward us having any certianty on anything.

[Robz888]

ok, 2 things before I turn in.

#1 The near unanimous suspicion of Kuildeous is bothering the hell out of me. If he's mafia, why isn't anyone coming to his aid? The mafia are smarter than this, and I can't believe they'd give up their advantage this easily! Unless Insomniac is his partner and is trying to backdoor-defend by trying to get us on the Robz-Bozz bandwagon instead. But overall, I'm not buying it.  I was strongly leaning toward Kuildeous's guilt, but the eleventh hour is giving me misgivings very similar to my round 1 doubts about Morgrim. For the record, I am voicing them NOW, before it's too late. I somehow expect I'll be accused of mafia-hedging because of this later on, but so be it. I am no longer completely convinced of K's guilt. I will take another look at everything in the morning. I may yet come back around on him.

#2 If it's the only way to get you to stop lurking and give us some kind of read on you, Vote: Bozzball. I encourage others to pressure-vote bozzball into saying something; our lack of information on him is really crippling toward us having any certianty on anything.

Someone is coming to his aid. It's him and Insomniac.

I arrived at this conclusion, essentially, by changing my mind on a big thing. At first I suspected that the mafia would be among the Morgrim voters, because they wanted to lynch an innocent townie. Upon review, it’s obvious that Morgrim was going to die, and totally unncessary for both mafia to have voted for him. Indeed, it was possible for neither to do so, since he hammered himself.

Skeptics should note that I began this round by acquiting Kuildeous. Well, I was wrong, what can I say? I was way too hasty in making that call, but I made it based on this earlier notion that I have changed my mind on, about Morgrim voters and non-Morgrim voters. I also sort of just didn’t correctly remember the things he had been saying. Upon further review, he is quite a flip-flopping hedge monster. I’ve already stated a couple reasons I discovered that made him suspicious. And also, Galz, J, and Volt all listed him at some point as a top mafia suspect. These are the people whose thoughts I trust most strongly, and I know they aren’t all mafia. I seriously doubt even 2 of them are mafia.

Now, for as long as I have suspected any of the non-Morgrim voters, Insomniac has been the top of my list, mostly because he is making strong arguments against me that I don’t think are fair or valid for reasons I went over in the last post. Because his arguments against me aren’t good--that I suspect too many people? I don’t suspect more than anybody else, really I don’t--I’ve decided they may have been rehearsed. I know I am an easy target--that’s a point Galzria made about me--and I could very well see the mafia pairing deciding last night that I would be the bandwagon target. (And look what’s happening!)

Also, he keeps bringing up Tables, and each time he brings it up, I can’t help but think it’s because he was the one who killed Tables. I know a couple of you were fans of his Tables analysis, but I didn’t think it helped us much. (I didn’t think Tables helped us much either. Perhaps I’m still living in the alternate-reality where him and Morgrim are mafia. Such simpler times.)

And now we see that Insomniac and Kuildeous have both voed me. This is totally unsurprising, given that there best hope is to convince two more people that I am the mafia. I can understand that Insomniac’s vote is based on all those things he said. But Kuildeous? Come on. It’s obvious he doesn’t actually suspect me, but knows his only hope is to get on that bandwagon.

(I was going to review people based on pairings and suspicion, but Volt already did that, and I agree with his analysis. I did say earlier, though, that K and Insomniac were a top suspicious pairing to me. I have for some time worried that neither mafia were Morgrim voters, because they didn’t need to be, we were outplaying ourselves quite successfully.)

Which one is more likely to be mafia? Volt thinks it's Kuildeous. That may be the one point where I'm not toally agreeing, although Kuildeous jumping to vote me is so suspicious, he's just depserate to save himself. Except for that, though, I would say it is Insomniac. Also, K has very few other possible pairings, since he can't be with me, G, Volt, or J. Insomniac, on the other hand, could be a co-conspirator to basically anybody other than me. I would be most worried about him and J, probably. But K and Insomniac still seems most likely.

[Insomniac]

You didnt address my more detailed post Robz.

Also I'm playing a lot like you on Day 1. I am driving hard because I expect your mafia. I straight up expect to be lynched if you are not.

(Also not sure if its clear or not but this it's nothing personal I actually think you're mafia)

[Robz888]

You didnt address my more detailed post Robz.

Also I'm playing a lot like you on Day 1. I am driving hard because I expect your mafia. I straight up expect to be lynched if you are not.

(Also not sure if its clear or not but this it's nothing personal I actually think you're mafia)

Ha ha, nothing personal! I know that 

Sorry, there are a lot of posts to keep up with. I didn't see additional points, though, beyond what you said about the timing of my Morgrim vote, my proposed wide web of suspicions, and my relationship with Bozzball.

[Robz888]

And I genuinely think you are mafia, too. Likely alongside Kuildeous, or possibly Jonah, or I guess anybody. Though if it's Kuildeous, it really has to be Kuildeous and you.

[Insomniac]

I will say a few things before I head to bed here. The first is probably more relevant than the second which is more relevant than the third

1) Me and Kuildeous are not both mafia. I know this to be true. And the best evidence I can give is this. Robz you arent a popular vote right now I've been a big proponent of you since the beginning. This is why I voted you. Mafia on Day 2 probably want to hang out somewhere between 1-3 and definetly not 4 and they definetly dont want to be 1 and 2. If we are both mafia how transparent would it be for us both to vote for you as numbers 1 and 2 when it isnt likely others will jump on. (Unless they are mafia or agree with my points)

2) IF Kuildeous IS mafia and DOES get lynched I will be the next to go. SO assuming he is mafia the odds go 4-1 (remaining mafia kills a town during the night) assuming that town is not me and the town lynch me which i fully suspect they would it goes 2-1 for town, SO I actually like the odds for winning if Kuildeous is mafia. If he isn't and gets lynched god help us all

3) IF Robz is mafia and does get lynched then its a similar boat. but probably doesn't get us much farther on figuring out who robz #2 is

4) IF ROBZ ISNT mafia I dont like town odds at all. because it goes 4-2, 3-2 after night phase and then I probably get lynched for pushing robs so hard, which puts it at 2-2 and after night phase 2-1 for the loss. Thats not to say that I should be lynched if Robz isnt mafia because I fully expect that I would. Its just something I only just thought about.


Hmm for NOW
Unvote

I dont want a hammer to fall while I sleep. I will likely recast in the morning unless a new day sheds some new light on my thoughts or some post sways me. Though I doubt it

[Insomniac]

Number 4 is the ONLY reason Im unvoting for tonight, it is a possibility that makes our chances look grim

[Voltgloss]

Voting per my conditionals. 

Vote: Kuildeous

[bozzball]

Bozzball, I would like to hear some analysis, response, thoughts, SOMETHING from you.

I don't know WHAT to think.

[bozzball]

There is a lot more reading to do than I viably have time for. I am impressed how you guys are getting so much analysis from seemingly so little information.

[Voltgloss]

bozzball, do you want to continue playing this game?  Or would you prefer that someone else swap in as a replacement?

If the latter, let us and Axxle know.
If the former, you need to weigh in. 

It's just not fair on the rest of us for you to stay in the game but refuse to take part.  I don't mean to be rude, and I realize I may be coming off as rude.  But, well, staying in the game and refusing to take part is rude towards all of us.

[Voltgloss]

Sorry, "refusing to take part" comes off as harsher than I meant.  If you don't have time to read everything, that's clearly not your fault.  But if you don't have that time, and don't feel comfortable participating because you don't have that time, then your staying in the game but not participating brings it to a dead halt.  Especially now during the voting stage.

[Kuildeous]

There is a lot more reading to do than I viably have time for. I am impressed how you guys are getting so much analysis from seemingly so little information.

It may seem impressive, but there is probably too much overanalyzing on our part. This overanalysis got Morgrim killed. It has a good chance of getting another innocent killed (which is not apparent yet). Hell, I'm tempted to drop analyzing and just go for the most obvious targets. Maybe the Mafia can choose to employ obviously transparent ploys since we are so good at overthinking things.

[Insomniac]

VOTE: ROBZ




nothing occured to change my mind. I'm positive I will be lynched before the game ends if Robz is town or if Kuildeous is mafia still but Im sure Robz isnt town.

[Galzria]

Alright, said I would wait for Robz's reply, and it's in. Nothing's changed except where I think #2 may be. Both Volt and Robz have decent ideas. Volt's conviction and vote, as with Jotheonah earlier, have me thinking townie right now.

So that leaves as a likely pair:

Kuildeous-Robz
Kuildeous-Insomniac

I'm not convinced either way. I had more or less written Insomniac off, mostly because of a refusal on my part to believe that we fell into our own trap with Morgrim. I don't know now. I have to seriously reconsider. Volt and Robz both made good cases. I wasn't nearly as sold by Insomniacs argument for Robz (not that he's ultimately wrong).

Hmm... Stuff to ponder. Either way, VOTE: KUILDEOUS

[Kuildeous]

Come on. It’s obvious he doesn’t actually suspect me

Not true. I've suspected you from the beginning of Day 2. Just because I haven't been as vocal about it lately doesn't mean that I don't think about your words and actions. It can be hurtful to the cause to broadcast everything (hell, I have said way too much already). When Galzria began his witch hunt against me, I watched those who didn't initially support him. The Mafia would watch the inertia and try to nudge things along. Jonah was actually the primary enabler of the Galzria engine, but he jumped on the bandwagon awfully early. I'm starting to get an inkling that his backing off might actually be sincere.

Volt and Robz did not initially join the bandwagon, but they've directed their attention to me. Volt didn't start off with me as a primary suspect, but I was still a suspect in his mind. Robz's dismissal of me put me in a very dangerous position. As the penultimate vote that doomed Morgrim, he knew he would be suspected. He could set one of the non-Morgrim voters up as a patsy in case he was the one lynched. He would die for the Mafia, and the town would be looking for his partner. All arrows would point to the person that Robz did not suspect, while his real partner would be free to wreak havoc.

But that's not how events unfolded. He was not lynched and in fact was allowed to fade slightly into the background. He no longer needed a patsy since it looked like he wasn't going to get lynched. He is free to recant and start casting doubt upon me while not getting involved too heavily. Maybe I watched The Usual Suspects too many times, but I see this as a distinct possibility.

This elevates him above Voltgloss. Volt cast an early vote for me. He might have taken the opportunity to be in a comfortable position rather than the risky final vote, but I'm not so sure about that. It's a more brazen move.

Insomniac's unvote surprises me, though. He claims that he is so certain of Robz's guilt that he wouldn't be bothered at all if four votes get piled on him (#413). Yet, he unvoted after I voted for Robz. He couldn't have been afraid that votes 3 and 4 would be Mafia, since he was so certain that Robz is a villain. So why the sudden change in heart? He claims that he wanted to be awake when the hammer falls, but I'm not convinced.

Dammit, my theory is blasted by the fact that Insomniac reinstated his vote. I'm sure the rest of this is useless, but I'll include it anyway in case I'm wrong about something. I thought I stumbled across something there.

I'm starting to see a Robz/Insomniac connection. Even if you don't believe that Robz is Mafia, then you are probably one of those that believe in the Kuildeous/Insomniac connection. If so, I urge you to vote for Insomniac. He is featured in many of the likely pairings that people have posited.

I've broken down what would happen if you vote for Insomniac or me. Here is the rundown:

Event: Insomniac is lynched and is Mafia. Townsperson is assassinated.
Day 3 population:  4 Town 1 Mafia
Consequence: Kuildeous is lynched in Day 3. Townsperson is assassinated.
Day 4 population: 2 Town 1 Mafia

Event: Insomniac is lynched and is not Mafia. Townsperson is assassinated.
Day 3 population: 3 Town 2 Mafia
Consequence: Kuildeous is lynched in Day 3. Townsperson is assassinated.
Day 4 population: 1 Town 2 Mafia

Event: Kuildeous is lynched. Townsperson is assassinated.
Day 3 population: 3 Town 2 Mafia
Consequence: ?

The first situation is preferable. Having only three people left would suck, but the town could still win.
The second situation would be terrible. The consequence is not set in stone. If Insomniac is not Mafia, then he obviously doesn't have a connection with anyone. I imagine the next stage would be to focus on the Volt/Kuildeous connection, so there's still a likelihood that I'll be lynched on Day 3, in which case the Mafia wins handily.
The third situation is messy. Frankly, I don't envy you guys at all in Day 3 in this case. I have no idea what will happen if you lynch me in Day 2.


Still keeping my vote on Robz, though. I argued earlier in favor of either Robz or Volt being Mafia but not both. I still stand by this.

[jotheonah]

You're urging us to vote for insomniac ... but not doing so yourself?

Insomniac-Kuildeous is looking really good right now. Especially because although Insomniac's efforts to keep K alive are haphazard, his efforts to keep himself alive are very mafia-ish. The tell that I was missing from K in my last post was he wasn't panicking or flailing enough for a mafioso about to die. But now he's begun to act like I expect him to. As has Insomniac.

Still, I'm not ruling out K-R, V-R, or K-V.
Insomniac-Voltgloss is the possibility that's still keeping me from voting K. Volt, you want to weigh in on Insomniac's recent performance and whether or not it's as scummy as Robz thinks it is?

[Insomniac]

I know I'm dead/lynched. I'm not trying to keep myself alive.

I don't know if K is mafia but if he is and gets lynched I'm done for because people see me as his partner. I actually think this is an ok outcome.
If Robz ISNT mafia and is lynched I'm lynched for being wrong

If Robz is mafia, I might live or I might be killed during night 2.

IF K is not lynched or is town, and Robz is not lynched I might be killed during night 2 for being on the right track.



In short I don't think I'm going to be alive for long, and Im not trying to keep myself alive. I didn't go after Kuildeous and well apparently that makes me guilty for today.

That said IF Kuildeous is mafia I will HAPPILY die because at least the town has a decent chance. As long as mafia dies today, then kill me because at least one mafia is gone and the town still has a good chance.


Kuildeous: What the hell? I give the SAME analysis as you and retract my vote temporarily, then you post the SAME analysis I do (although scratched out) As a reason to vote for me. If your going to cite my analysis as a reason to vote for me, don't give the same analysis.