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[yuma]

So I have finally had a bit of a chance to go back and look at how my not LRing affects things a bit more in depth.

The big thing as others have mentioned is that this means that there doesn't have to be a RB/JK of sorts. I guess there still could be, but there doesn't have to be.

For each player this means the following:

lio - for him to be scum he no longer has to be a Neighbor/Godfather/Jailkeeper. He just has to be a Neighbor/Godfather. I still find this very unlikely, but a little more likely than before. But not much.

Jimmmmmm - For Jimmmmmm to be scum he has to be Marquis. Before for him to be scum he would have had to either fakeclaimed the BP or have been given a JK/RB role instead of the doctoring role and lied about it. Now for him to be scum he can still just be a BP/Doc. Again, I find this a little more likely, but not as likely as the below scenario.

Robz - Before for Robz to be scum as Maquis he would have had to do something that I found rather implausible... He would have had to have been a JK/RB that lied about being a tracker. Which is risky as it could have been counter claimed by someone with a tracking role day2 and risky because he wouldn't know as a RB/JK that mcmc hadn't targeted anyone... unless he had RB/JK mcmc. But in our current scenario Robz would not need to be a RB/JK and could just be a plain tracker like he said. He could have tracked mcmc in hopes that he was a cop and saw that he didn't target anyone (this would require Galz to have performed the NK, so there is a slight hangup) and decided that it would be worthwhile to gain some town cred by preventing a lynch and claiming a 1-shot role (that is now used up) to prevent being NKed.

And to continue along these lines Robz being MU I think is just as likely in our current situation. Before Robz would have to be a RB/JK that would have known that mcmc hadn't targeted anyone... or lied about mcmc not targeting anyone and lied about being a tracker in an attempt to save his partner. Now Robz could still be a 1-shot tracker who targeted someone, probably unsuccessfully as the Nk for both teams the next night was shraeye, and lied about tracking mcmc to save his partner from a lynch.

So summary, I think this new information makes everyone seem a little more scummy from my perspective, the least being lio. I think the new info affects Jimmmm and Robz equally, but still results in me thinking that Robz is the most likely to be scum.

[liopoil]

hey wait, if I can be scum, why can't Jimmmmmm be a godfather MU???

[yuma]

hey wait, if I can be scum, why can't Jimmmmmm be a godfather MU???

I don't think anyone is saying he can't be. Is it likely? Just as likely as you being a Godfather I think... by which I mean, not very likely at all.

[yuma]

the second one is more likely of course. But that is not the only thing. for instance:

Who is more likely to kill ashersky N5? MU robz or MU yuma? and the answer is MU yuma.

this seems like a crucial point for you, one significant enough for you to overlook the very obvious play of preventing the lynch of a confirmed scum! But I guess my question is why am I more likely to kill ashersky N5? Is it because Robz keeps saying that he would coast to a victory as scum if he hadn't killed ash? Because I feel like both Jimmmm and I have documented a scenario--that correlates with our scenario in which he is mcmc's partner and saved him day2--in which it was favorable for Robz to kill asherksy, which I don't feel like you have ever responded to.

Here is another point that I don't think has been analyzed. Who do you think ashersky was most likely to investigate last night? There are three options... 1. Jimmmm--with the intent of either finding scum or making him an IC. 2. Robz--but not because of the mcmc thing but because ash is a Maquis cop and can't look for robz to be MU. 3. yuma--who ash was voting for the day before. I would wager that in this scenario ash would most likely investigate yuma. Do you agree?

So in this scenario MU!yuma doesn't want to NK ashersky because ash will likely investigate MU!yuma and give him 1/2 IC status.

If you disagree and think ash was more likely to investigate either Robz or Jimmmm then I suppose this last point is a bit moot.

Does that make sense?

[Robz888]

hey wait, if I can be scum, why can't Jimmmmmm be a godfather MU???

He can be, but you're more likely. Why? Because you fit being maquis better than jimm or yuma fit belonging to either team, when we ignore investigation. I really was 90% convinced you were partners with munch and glooble, and for good reason.

[Robz888]

Well, it's time to get a move on.

Okay, my best guess as to what's going on is that yuma is lying. This beats out--by not a huge margin--godfather liopoil.

The big thing is, yuma claims to have made two big errors that I don't actually think we're genuine. The maquis/marquis thing is actually the less believable error, in my opinion. I've been playing mafia with yuma since Mafia III. You guys are aware, right, that he was voted Best Scum 2012 for his previous games? He won that award. He plays scum well, guys. The maquis/marquis mistake, is I think a deliberate one, to make it look like there's no way he could be scum. I don't think it's a mistake yuma would actually make. He's a smart guy. I've never seen him play carelessly before.

The PM to Jo thing, that could be error. And it actually could have been an error even if he was scum--he could have been banking on Jimm's doctor shot covering the other scum kill, which is why he was just going to LR, not shoot. Or, it's a convenient excuse to explain why there was no LR, creating paranoia about blockers, and he didn't kill because he didn't want to tip the town that both scum teams were still around. Or he's MU and both teams weren't around and they did shoot. I don't really know.

The point is, yuma is a great scum, and for him to be town here, he committed two mistakes, one of which i seriously doubt he would make, the other maybe maybe not, but doesn't disprove him as scum either way. I can't exactly figure out what he did to try and game us, but again, I remind you that he is Best Scum 2012.

So, it's time for Vote: Yuma. If you guys decide to lynch me instead, I won't necessarily blame you, there is a conventional line of arguing that points to me. And scum yuma will get another win.

If it's someone other than yuma, I won't feel very responsible, since all the non-yuma players have encouraged us to make it a Robz vs. yuma thing, which I do think is a little suspect, but what do we do now?

We can no lynch if you guys want, but I think yuma's LR claim and the ensuing discussion made it pretty pointless to do so.

If I've failed to persuade you, please allow me to make a final plea for why it's not me before you hammer me. A lot of people are counting on us not to screw it up, so I think that's more than fair.

[Robz888]

In case my vote is buried, I will again, Vote: yuma. I don't know how much access I will have for the rest of the day...

[yuma]

seriously!!! You are voting me over not knowing that Maquis is actually Marquis? Look at them side by side. They are so similar! I honestly thought the name was Marquis. It is French for nobility right? So I thought that the Marquis were some sort of noble class in this star trek universe--I know nothing about star trek.

And to argue that it is some sort of devious plot thought up from the very beginning...? I guess I just don't think it is that smart of a scum plan in the first place. Because once someone notices it it attracts attention to that player, which is exactly what scum wants to avoid. This sounds way more like a conspiracy plot then anything else.

But if that is your interpretation, so be it. I guess this means that you think I am Maquis scum then?

[yuma]

and I would argue that scum would not play carelessly... That is scum would be very careful to not make mistakes... like I said before mistakes bring in attention. scum doesn't want attention, they want to be very far from the spotlight--I think that is why people think I am good at being scum. But I have done the opposite here... If I could compare myself to any other game it would be MXI--where you were the mod--and I was much more loose and open and MXV where I did play pretty carelessly... I derphammered twice in that game (fortunately both times were on scum) and in both those games I was town.

I can't even believe I am arguing abou this...

[Robz888]

I don't know, man. Obviously you COULD be either. As I've said repeatedly, you're not a great fit for either, and neither is Jimm, and liopoil is but only for maquis, which he is cleared of being.

The big thing is, I don't believe you usually make mistakes, as you've claimed to have done here.

[Robz888]

and I would argue that scum would not play carelessly... That is scum would be very careful to not make mistakes... like I said before mistakes bring in attention. scum doesn't want attention, they want to be very far from the spotlight--I think that is why people think I am good at being scum. But I have done the opposite here... If I could compare myself to any other game it would be MXI--where you were the mod--and I was much more loose and open and MXV where I did play pretty carelessly... I derphammered twice in that game (fortunately both times were on scum) and in both those games I was town.

I can't even believe I am arguing abou this...

But I would argue you do NOT play carelessly. Your careless here is not careless, it's calculated. Again, I would bet $0 on this turning out correct, but it's the best I have to go on. Nobody fits anybody being scum really.

[yuma]

and I would argue that scum would not play carelessly... That is scum would be very careful to not make mistakes... like I said before mistakes bring in attention. scum doesn't want attention, they want to be very far from the spotlight--I think that is why people think I am good at being scum. But I have done the opposite here... If I could compare myself to any other game it would be MXI--where you were the mod--and I was much more loose and open and MXV where I did play pretty carelessly... I derphammered twice in that game (fortunately both times were on scum) and in both those games I was town.

I can't even believe I am arguing abou this...

But I would argue you do NOT play carelessly. Your careless here is not careless, it's calculated. Again, I would bet $0 on this turning out correct, but it's the best I have to go on. Nobody fits anybody being scum really.

false... you fit being scum pretty darn well, but you can't vote for yourself. so you have to invent reason to vote for me above the others... vote: robz

[Robz888]

and I would argue that scum would not play carelessly... That is scum would be very careful to not make mistakes... like I said before mistakes bring in attention. scum doesn't want attention, they want to be very far from the spotlight--I think that is why people think I am good at being scum. But I have done the opposite here... If I could compare myself to any other game it would be MXI--where you were the mod--and I was much more loose and open and MXV where I did play pretty carelessly... I derphammered twice in that game (fortunately both times were on scum) and in both those games I was town.

I can't even believe I am arguing abou this...

But I would argue you do NOT play carelessly. Your careless here is not careless, it's calculated. Again, I would bet $0 on this turning out correct, but it's the best I have to go on. Nobody fits anybody being scum really.

false... you fit being scum pretty darn well, but you can't vote for yourself. so you have to invent reason to vote for me above the others... vote: robz

I understand where that's coming from. I don't blame people for suspecting me. Nonetheless, if I get lynched, the town will lose, and I really don't want to lose.

[jotheonah]

Gul Dukat shows up on the station, having heard that the Cardassians could probably take it back with little to no resistance. BUt when he steps through the airlock, the place is such a dump he decides it's not worth it.


Vote Count 6.3

yuma (1): Robz888
Robz888 (1): yuma
Not Voting (2): liopoil, Jimmmmm
With 4 alive it takes 3 to lynch.
Deadline is March 4th at 8 am, forum time.

[Jimmmmm]

Man, you're both really good scum players, and I don't want scum either of you to win. It doesn't make that much sense for either of you to be scum, but one of you has to be.

[jotheonah]

FYI, you deadline out in 46 hours.

[liopoil]

no lynching is bad we decided right? the only way it can make a difference is if it helps scum, that's what we decided right?

So, are we ready for jimmmmm and I to go ahead and vote?

[liopoil]

well, I'm ready.

Vote: Yuma

scum!Jimmmmm wins, if he exists.

[yuma]

...

[liopoil]

 

[yuma]

I feel like you aren't even acknowledging my posts.

lio do you honestly think that it would be a good strategy... and one that I would do as MU.... to try and lynch my only remaining partner day2 after having galz night killed? Because if you do, you are completely crazy.

That is such an unsustainable plan. All it would take is 1 investigation, 1 NK, 1 lynch and the game would be lost.

I don't understand how you can imploy this logic.

But whatever, we lose the game. Probably Robz wins it.

I wash my hands of this... This is on you. Completely on you.

[yuma]

go get night killed or something! I am done with you.

[liopoil]

I don't think you were actually trying to get mcmc lynched.

[yuma]

bullshit!

[yuma]

I don't think you were actually trying to get mcmc lynched.

go back and reread the day then.