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[ashersky]

Mods, can we get a vote count?

[Jimmmmm]

I agree that today's lynch should be Robz, mcmc, liopoil or Dsell.

Off the top of my head, I can't think of terribly much Robz has done this game, other than the tracking mcmc thing, which I still think was Towny of him, even if mcmc turns out to be Maquis. Although I do think the fact that I can't remember much of what he's done is a little strange - he's normally in the spotlight.

I'm not sure about mcmc. I was finding him scummy until the Robz tracking thing, and now it seems quite possible that he's scum even if he didn't target anyone. I guess I need to re-examine him.

I really don't know about lio. Yeah, I see the argument and the interactions. But the same interactions that point to him being Maquis also point to him not. And maybe the interactions between him and Munch are simply because they were neightbours, but on the other hand maybe they thought saying "I'm 100% against a liopoil lynch" and such was less risky because they could blame it on the neighbourhood. I don't know.

Then there's Dsell. Well, if he's Town he hasn't helped much, sure, and he's lurked. But does anyone have any other argument or evidence against him?

At this stage I'm leaning towards either Robz or mcmc. But I'm happy to defer to theorel's leadership if he feels strongly enough about one of the other two.

[Robz888]

I agree that today's lynch should be Robz, mcmc, liopoil or Dsell.

Off the top of my head, I can't think of terribly much Robz has done this game, other than the tracking mcmc thing, which I still think was Towny of him, even if mcmc turns out to be Maquis. Although I do think the fact that I can't remember much of what he's done is a little strange - he's normally in the spotlight.

That's pretty harsh. I think I've been really active this game. I did a lot of work to try and stop the Cuzz lynch, though ultimately ended up supporting it. I built cases against shraeye and Eevee (both of which were wrong). I pushed for the Glooble lynch over the liopoil lynch yesterday which turned out to be accurate. I've been very involved this game. I've made my case against liopoil today--and I'll try to make it again.

[Jimmmmm]

I agree that today's lynch should be Robz, mcmc, liopoil or Dsell.

Off the top of my head, I can't think of terribly much Robz has done this game, other than the tracking mcmc thing, which I still think was Towny of him, even if mcmc turns out to be Maquis. Although I do think the fact that I can't remember much of what he's done is a little strange - he's normally in the spotlight.

That's pretty harsh. I think I've been really active this game. I did a lot of work to try and stop the Cuzz lynch, though ultimately ended up supporting it. I built cases against shraeye and Eevee (both of which were wrong). I pushed for the Glooble lynch over the liopoil lynch yesterday which turned out to be accurate. I've been very involved this game. I've made my case against liopoil today--and I'll try to make it again.

It wasn't meant to be harsh, and it wasn't meant to be a case. I was just thinking off the top of my head. Yeah, sure you've said you're almost certain liopoil is scum. But either I have a terrible memory or for most of this game you haven't done particularly memorable things, which I feel like is different from most games. I will need to re-read you when I can to work out if I think that makes you scum.

[Robz888]

I think a post count might be helpful, just for perspective:

ashersky: 388
Robz: 334
jimm: 210
yuma: 192
liopoil: 164
mcmcsalot: 115
theorel: 98

Since we know theorel is town, mcmcsalot is actually our biggest lurker. Followed by liopoil.

[Robz888]

I agree that today's lynch should be Robz, mcmc, liopoil or Dsell.

Off the top of my head, I can't think of terribly much Robz has done this game, other than the tracking mcmc thing, which I still think was Towny of him, even if mcmc turns out to be Maquis. Although I do think the fact that I can't remember much of what he's done is a little strange - he's normally in the spotlight.

That's pretty harsh. I think I've been really active this game. I did a lot of work to try and stop the Cuzz lynch, though ultimately ended up supporting it. I built cases against shraeye and Eevee (both of which were wrong). I pushed for the Glooble lynch over the liopoil lynch yesterday which turned out to be accurate. I've been very involved this game. I've made my case against liopoil today--and I'll try to make it again.

It wasn't meant to be harsh, and it wasn't meant to be a case. I was just thinking off the top of my head. Yeah, sure you've said you're almost certain liopoil is scum. But either I have a terrible memory or for most of this game you haven't done particularly memorable things, which I feel like is different from most games. I will need to re-read you when I can to work out if I think that makes you scum.

Then you have a terrible memory.

[Jimmmmm]

Then you have a terrible memory.

Well that's entirely possible. However I'm not talking about post count or level of involvement. Most games I play with you I think, "Wow he's being so scummy! Well actually it's Robz, so maybe not." I just haven't thought that this game, and pre-re-read I find that a little strange.

[Robz888]

Liopoil case.

Early on Day 1, he names Glooble/Munch top town reads. Glooble/Munch are scum. He proceeds to always sheep people when he votes for others. He makes sure to signal support for people who are unvoting Glooble.

I pretty much agree with several of you who voted glooble and then unvoted. He has been helpful when he has posted. His defense has seemed honest. Everyone has been under scrutiny has given a good defense in my eyes actually (glooble, eevee, raerae).

Just after this, he says he supports lynching Eevee, shraeye, Cuzz, or Jimm. None of these people turned out to be scum (except Jimm, who is who knows).

Then, again, he specifically mentions his townreads on Glooble/Munch:

Galz and raerae I think are town. Leening scum on ash, but he is confusing. munch, glooble, and shraeye I lean town, but munch and shraeye I think are pushing the wagon too hard, in a scummy way.

That concludes Day 1. I think it is noteworthy that liopoil's most frequently appearing opinion is that Munch and Glooble are town. Again, these are the two people he mentions the most frequently. I can't imagine him getting this unlucky. Like, obviously we all have reads that turn out wrong. I maintained a townread on Glooble for awhile myself. But I never simultaenously had mega townreads on two specific people for the entire game and those two people turn out to be scummates with an unknown, likely third. That just doesn't happen.

I am 100% against a liopoil lynch.

This is when liopoil starts to get in trouble.

Glooble does put a vote on liopoil, but he doesn't push or discuss it much, and Eevee is easily lynched instead.

Then, okay, Day 3. Munch and Glooble both go for ashersky. Liopoil heads for Dsell. Again, they follow the pattern of not criticizng or voting each other.

Then Munch votes for me and goes that way. Check out this vote count:

Vote Count 3.3

ashersky (1): Glooble
Glooble (L-3): ashersky, yuma, theorel
liopoil (1): mcmcsalot
Robz888 (2): TheMunch, liopoil

Not Voting (3): Robz888, Dsell, Jimmmmm
With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.
Deadline is February 8th at noon, forum time.

Then, things progress to this:

Unofficial:

ashersky (1): Glooble
Glooble (3): ashersky, theorel, yuma (L-3)
Robz888 (2): TheMunch, liopoil
liopoil (3): Robz888, Jimmmmm, mcmcsalot (L-3)

Not Voting (1): Dsell

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

The leading lynch candidates are Glooble and liopoil. Really, The Munch and Glooble should work to get liopoil lynched at this point, it really could go either way. The only people not voting for one of these two are the three of them. But they don't. And I believe they don't because Glooble and liopoil are equally unsatisfactory lynches for this scum team.

Next, ashersky asks each of them and Dsell to confirm whether they will vote for Glooble or liopoil. PRessured to do so, liopoil votes for Glooble with no explanation. This is the kicker. Liopoil has explaiend all his votes up until now. Every one. This one, I just don't think he can come up with an explanation, which hey, that can happen when you go up against your scummate.

And also, I know this is something scum does, because shortly after, scum Glooble votes for liopoil without explanation!!!

They know it's over for one of them at this point, and the best thing to do is to get on each other's wagons, for distancing.

Liopoil has been the single biggest defender of both members of a confirmed scum team. There is another member of this scumteam. That person is clearly, clearly liopoil.

[Jimmmmm]

(except Jimm, who is who knows).

Only if you're wrong about liopoil.

[Jimmmmm]

Your case is pretty convincing though. theorel?

[theorel]

Robz: your post count left out Dsell.  Below is the post-count from you with Dsell added in.

ashersky: 388
Robz: 334
jimm: 210
yuma: 192
liopoil: 164
mcmcsalot: 115
theorel: 98
Dsell: 62

Dsell is actually the biggest lurker by a HUGE margin.

Here's what the case against liopoil looks like to me:
He claimed a town-read on Munch and Glooble.
He'd voted before without explanation (immediately after yuma suggested everyone vote on Day1).  So the day3 argument lacks teeth.
Everything around Munch's "derailing" of the liopoil lynch reads to me like scum trying to get town-cred for a town lynch that they avoided.

liopoil was a nearly equally unsatisfactory lynch compared to Glooble (for Munch at least).  He had claimed without explanation that he was 100% opposed to his lynch.  Suppose liopoil flipped town.  Then after a mass-claim Munch would have had to either make up a claim or claim the "other neighbor".  We would be saying, "so is that why he was 100% opposed to the lynch?" and then, "why didn't you oppose it Day3 then?" 

Also (as shown by Jimmmmm/yuma) Glooble was gearing up to vote for liopoil.  He was providing arguments for why he would vote liopoil before he ever voted.  So, his vote without explanation, is reasonable also.  And as noted before, Munch was just largely absent from the forums.  That's why I really find the end-of-day3 shenanigans to be a really weak argument.

Anyways, I still find liopoil's interaction with Glooble day1 really weird.  I really don't get that town-read on Glooble, and how strong it was.  It could be that he accidentally attached himself too strongly to his scumbuddy.  I don't really buy Glooble and Munch's interaction with liopoil as scum interaction, they aren't newb-scum.  Here's where I stand though:
Maquis-cop is able to be suspected as MU.  If ashersky is MU, we want the Maquis alive.  I'm already confirmed non-Maquis, so whereas any scum has reason to kill me, only Maquis are going to kill ashersky.  Of course, they might leave him alive (for the WIFOM), but simply the fact that Maquis have to actually deal with whether to kill the biggest danger to themselves or more confirmed town makes me want to leave them alive.
Lots of end-game scenarios work out better with 2 scum than 1, especially given the even parity.  We can afford an extra NK as town, as long as one scum-team hits scum.  Which means that scum should be able to avoid the no-win scenario by shooting the other team and escaping lynching.  Since if they let it go to 1-1-1 town isn't likely to help them win, while if they go to 1-2 they might convince town to give them the win.  I'm hopeful that scum will go for the win and avoid the tie scenarios.
So, even with the doctor-possibility, I think it's strategically better to angle for the MU team.  I think Dsell is the best target for that.

So, Vote: Dsell

[Jimmmmm]

Unofficial vote count:

liopoil (3): Robz888, Dsell, mcmcsalot {L-2}
Dsell (3): yuma, ashersky, theorel {L-2}


Not Voting (4): Jimmmmm

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Deadline is February 21st at midnight.

Hmm. Hmm hmm hmm. Do I follow theorel onto Dsell and ask Robz or mcmc to do the same, or do I go for lio and ask ash to do the same? I'll probably end up sheeping theorel, but I'll have to give Dsell a re-read tomorrow before I do so.

[mcmcsalot]

I have always been in favor of thinking the ic's reads are trustworthy but not infallible. While I think the case on liopoil is better and would rather lynch him, I do think dsell is scummy as well and would change my vote if it is required.

[jotheonah]

The mood on Deep Space Nine is eerie and surreal. It really doesn't help that Worf is abusing his power and blasting Klingon opera over the intercomm perpetually.

Vote Count 4.3

liopoil (3): Robz888, Dsell, mcmcsalot {L-2}
Dsell (3): ashersky, yuma, theorel {L-2}


Not Voting (2): Jimmmmm, liopoil

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Deadline is February 21st at midnight.

[Jimmmmm]

I do think dsell is scummy as well

Why?

[mcmcsalot]

I do think dsell is scummy as well

Why?

lol agreed, and I have already stated I find dsell scummier than robz, robz has been active and towny all game to me, dsell has been scummy and more importantly was given strong town status D1 and did nothing with it to help town, as opposed to theorel who used his early town cred(everyone had a town rad on him) and continued to be helpful all game.

I feel dsell is scummy for taking the town cred he got on d1 and doing nothing with it. Town would want to use that town cred to be vocal and give solid reads, multiple people treated him as an IC(stupidly) an he did nothing.

Jimm, read along and make sure you are caught up before posting your question, it is wholly unnecessary if you had read any of my last 4 posts...

[liopoil]

seems like a weak reason to me..... scum would take that towncred and build on it by talking too...

[Dsell]

I did nothing with my early towncred because I did not want to be nightkilled. If I had seized town status to lead the town, I would have been a guaranteed NK target. In fact, this is even true if I am scum. I was hoping that I would NOT be a target early, and that I could get to near the end of the game before being nightkilled. Absorbing a NK at the end of the game can be extremely powerful. Towards the beginning...not so much.

This was my gameplan. The fact that I truly have been very busy (that's lessening a bit now, thank goodness) plus a long day 1 plus me never really getting into this game have made it hard for me to transition back into really playing the game in a pro-town way. I actually think I have been pro-town, though, if not as much as I could have been. I've been calling for Munch's lynch since day 1, which I have to assume is what made them want to kill me.

But please ask yourself if scumDsell would throw away the credibility (deserved or not) that I got day 1 and lurk it all away. I don't like being reduced to meta-arguments, I don't like them! But I realize that my content here is not strong and certainly not easily defensible. I realize that LALL points to me. Still, I AM station and I AM a bad lynch for that reason.

I am throwing myself behind a Liopoil lynch. There is just too much evidence to ignore. I think it's altogether possible that his veteran scumpartners encouraged him to interact with them and support them. Maybe he did just what they wanted and it's backfiring, maybe he was overeager. But the interactions are just plain as day. If Lio is town and this is a coincidence, then we're extremely, extremely unlucky. But guys, we must not ignore this.

[yuma]

I did nothing with my early towncred because I did not want to be nightkilled. If I had seized town status to lead the town, I would have been a guaranteed NK target.

This seems really weird logic to me. Scum wants to hit town PRs... but you weren't a town PR. So the best thing that you can do is try and be NK rather than a cop be NK. If you are town the best town play you could have done would be to still be active, try and be protown and then absorb a NK so that a PR doesn't get killed.

This just seems like you were playing for your own self preservation, which I get... nobody wants to die. But it isn't what I would call pro-town play. And like you say, scum wants to stay alive as well... but for them that is how they win. I think this fits the bill more as you being scum than town.

[Dsell]

I did nothing with my early towncred because I did not want to be nightkilled. If I had seized town status to lead the town, I would have been a guaranteed NK target.

This seems really weird logic to me. Scum wants to hit town PRs... but you weren't a town PR. So the best thing that you can do is try and be NK rather than a cop be NK. If you are town the best town play you could have done would be to still be active, try and be protown and then absorb a NK so that a PR doesn't get killed.

This just seems like you were playing for your own self preservation, which I get... nobody wants to die. But it isn't what I would call pro-town play. And like you say, scum wants to stay alive as well... but for them that is how they win. I think this fits the bill more as you being scum than town.

I was playing for the only situation in which I actually AM a PR...the end end game, when absorbing a NK can easily be the difference between a win and a loss.

[ashersky]

Yuma, did you get your Robz re-read done?

[ashersky]

The mood on Deep Space Nine is eerie and surreal. It really doesn't help that Worf is abusing his power and blasting Klingon opera over the intercomm perpetually.

Vote Count 4.3

liopoil (3): Robz888, Dsell, mcmcsalot {L-2}
Dsell (3): ashersky, yuma, theorel {L-2}


Not Voting (2): Jimmmmm, liopoil

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Deadline is February 21st at midnight.

I think we can assume lio will vote Dsell.

Jimmmmm, where are you leaning?  Theo prefers the Dsell lynch to Robz, and definitely not Lio.

If we get into night soon, I can be around for the start of the next day before I go VLA.

[Dsell]

That said, yuma, I see your point and I realize that I really haven't played great. Being deathproof was only part of it, like I said, I've been very busy and that's causing apathy towards this game.

[yuma]

Liopoil case.

To respond to your case Robz, a couple of things

1. lio's read on themunch makes sense.

I am a neighbor. munch and raerae were my neighbors, but they are dead now. We are confirmed non-members of the mirror-universe scumteam.

It appears that he knew from the outset that no one in his scum team were MU, so compared to everyone else that lio looked at themunch had a 50% less chance of being scum. This is further shown by Themunch's 100% townread on lio. Because themunch was marquis and because themunch apparently knew that lio wasn't MU, he could post that read w/o any qualms.

2. lio's read on Glooble actually reflects someone else... you, Robz. You had a townread on Glooble throughout nearly all of day1, day and only joined onto the glooble wagon late. Basically this is your whole rationale for voting glooble...

To me, Glooble starts out on okay-ish territory (despite his lurking), with some pseudo-solid stuff against Jimm and ashersky, and then becomes less and less present with each passing day.

compared to lio's vote w/o explantion yours really isn't much better. Yes it is something, but not much...

3. lastly you still haven't looked at this from the other perspective... at least I don't think you have. I just don't see themunch behaving that way toward a scumpartner in lio. It doesn't make sense as that sort of narrative. I have seen themunch as scum and that is something I don't think he would have done. What does make sense is the narrative that themunch knew 100% that lio was town and tried to use that to his benefit.

4. one of your biggest failings in trying to pin down the threesome is that both glooble and themunch were lurking late day3, both were lurking big time. So trying to analyze their voting or lack of voting I dont' think provides much info.

Themunch's last post was at  February 02, 2013, 06:43:40 pm. at that time the vote count was at:
ashersky (1): Glooble
Glooble (4): ashersky, theorel, mcmcsalot, yuma (L-2)
Robz888 (2): TheMunch, liopoil
liopoil (1): Robz888

Not Voting (2): Dsell, Jimmmmm

lio does not appear to be in any danger of being lynched. It is only later that a wagon develops on him.

Look I understand why you think lio fits this narrative, and he might actually be scum, but I would be very very surprised. What I am having a hard time understanding is how you can be so sure... "99% sure." the facts dont' support that sort of surety. I am beginning to think that you are trying to force a mislynch that while based on relatively good evidence doesn't hold up once placed under scrutiny.

I am changing my vote to vote: robz

[ashersky]

Yuma's pointed out a good fact that I hadn't picked up on, and that is Robz's "reads" on Glooble throughout the game.

Theo, what do you think?  We agreed Robz's lynch would be the most informative, and there's a definitely possibility he's a scum tracker.