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[liopoil]

The logic behind the "we want to cut the #of NKs down to one, so let's lynch liopoil" is faulty. I'm going to try to show that in this post.

First of all, let us examine the possibility that there are six scum. This seems unlikely because in this case 2/5 of the players are scum! With six scum on two teams it is impossible for town to win without a mafia dying at night, or a successful doctor protection or LR, EVEN if town lynches scum every single day. If there are six scum then we are pretty much at Lylo right now. so not only is it incredibly unlikely from my perspective that there are six scum, but even if there are we shouldn't consider it as a possibility because it means we pretty much already lost. Therefore I will assume that there are not 6 scum.

That leaves 4 or 5 scum. in the case that there are 4 scum I am 100% certainly station-aligned. there is a non-zero chance of there being just four scum. However, what that chance is subject to question. So let's assume for the purposes of this that it is only a 2% chance, because that is the worse case for what I am trying to show. (assume there is no such thing as fractions, it makes things simpler  And making it 1% gives you fractions in the next post. Regardless of what you make this number you still arrive at the result I did at the bottom. I think you all understand what I am saying.).

That leaves a 98% chance of there being 5 scum (could be less, depending on above number.). I do not believe that Joth would effect which team had three members based on roles. He says in the opening post that knowing a player's role will not give you any information pertaining to their alignment, except in the case of Cops and IC variant. If he decided to choose which team had more scum on it based on roles then people who claim weaker roles are more likely to be suspected as scum. This means that knowing a player's role WOULD give you information pertaining to their allignment. Therefore I say that assuming there are five scum, there is an equal chance of 2 MU, 3Maquis; and 3MU, 2 Maquis. With 3 MU, 2 Maquis not only am I confirmed town, but it is impossible for us to eliminate a team today. With 2 MU, 3 Maquis, then ANY scum we lynch eliminates a team. In this scenario we have no reason to gun for a particular team. EVEN if we assume that "If there is a maquis, then it is liopoil", There is still a 49+2=51% chance that there is no maquis, and a 49% chance that there is maquis.

Therefore we should lynch based not on chances of eliminating a scumteam, but based on the chance the person flips scum, how powerful their role is, and what information their lynch would give us for tomorrow.

[liopoil]

In that post note that I assumed that there being only 4 scum is very unlikely and that if there is maquis then it is me. I do not believe either of these things.

[liopoil]

I'd like to mention also that at one point Robz was assuming that there were exactly 4 scum.

[ashersky]

The logic behind the "we want to cut the #of NKs down to one, so let's lynch liopoil" is faulty. I'm going to try to show that in this post.

First of all, let us examine the possibility that there are six scum. This seems unlikely because in this case 2/5 of the players are scum! With six scum on two teams it is impossible for town to win without a mafia dying at night, or a successful doctor protection or LR, EVEN if town lynches scum every single day. If there are six scum then we are pretty much at Lylo right now. so not only is it incredibly unlikely from my perspective that there are six scum, but even if there are we shouldn't consider it as a possibility because it means we pretty much already lost. Therefore I will assume that there are not 6 scum.

That leaves 4 or 5 scum. in the case that there are 4 scum I am 100% certainly station-aligned. there is a non-zero chance of there being just four scum. However, what that chance is subject to question. So let's assume for the purposes of this that it is only a 2% chance, because that is the worse case for what I am trying to show. (assume there is no such thing as fractions, it makes things simpler  And making it 1% gives you fractions in the next post. Regardless of what you make this number you still arrive at the result I did at the bottom. I think you all understand what I am saying.).

That leaves a 98% chance of there being 5 scum (could be less, depending on above number.). I do not believe that Joth would effect which team had three members based on roles. He says in the opening post that knowing a player's role will not give you any information pertaining to their alignment, except in the case of Cops and IC variant. If he decided to choose which team had more scum on it based on roles then people who claim weaker roles are more likely to be suspected as scum. This means that knowing a player's role WOULD give you information pertaining to their allignment. Therefore I say that assuming there are five scum, there is an equal chance of 2 MU, 3Maquis; and 3MU, 2 Maquis. With 3 MU, 2 Maquis not only am I confirmed town, but it is impossible for us to eliminate a team today. With 2 MU, 3 Maquis, then ANY scum we lynch eliminates a team. In this scenario we have no reason to gun for a particular team. EVEN if we assume that "If there is a maquis, then it is liopoil", There is still a 49+2=51% chance that there is no maquis, and a 49% chance that there is maquis.

Therefore we should lynch based not on chances of eliminating a scumteam, but based on the chance the person flips scum, how powerful their role is, and what information their lynch would give us for tomorrow.

If you want me to lynch based on the chance the person flips scum, I am lynching you, because you have the highest chance based on my reads of people's play.

[Robz888]

I'd like to mention also that at one point Robz was assuming that there were exactly 4 scum.

Yes, and I very visibly changed my mind after considering the evidence, which I believe incontrovertibly suggests at least 5 scum. Why? Well, given the powers that we have, and the powers that the scum have that we've seen, two 2-man scum teams would be beyond pathetic here. So one or the other has to have another person.

But here's the thing, there can't be 3 MUs and only 2 Maquis. Why? Because the MUs would be very, very strictly superior to the maquis in terms of power.

M-VI was similar to this setup. It had a bunch of different roles and multiple scum teams. The 2-person team had 2 very powerful scum (including a really, really powerful Jack-of-All-Trades [it was me] and something else), and the 3-person team had 3 less powerful scum. To balance them out.

1-shot roleblocker and Neighbor are weak roles for scum. Regular roleblocker would be nice; 1-shot is like nothing. The strongest scum power we've seen is on the MU team! That's the Rolecop.

There is no way for there to be 3 MUs and 2 maquis. There can be 2 MUs and 3 Maquis, or 3 and 3.

[yuma]

While I agree 3 and 3 is unlikely I think we still need to consider it a possibility. 4 is possible as well, but I think even less likely than 6. And if it is 4 then all we need to do is find one more scum and we win. I would rather be pessimistic and win, than optimistic and lose.

But we are likely dealing with 5 and I agree with Robz in concluding that if there is 5 then it is likely 3 with Marq and 2 with MU. Because the opposite just doesn't work. I know that roles don't indicate alignment, but I don't think joth just randomly assigned roles. Joth has played enough games... and knows this community well enough... to know that balance is crucial.

So that means that the most likely scenario is that we are looking for 1 MU and 1 Marq. Lio's insistence at trying to disprove this is silly. He also does not acknowledge the benefit of 1. potentially eliminating a team to prevent future NKs or 2. acknowledge the benefit that may result in me the LR (a townie) surviving the night.

I am warming strongly to a lio lynch, but I need to make sure that I am not just being swayed into this because I want it to result in me surviving the night via protective powers. I need to make sure the narrative that lio as partners with glooble/munch makes sense. Robz were you going to do a large post showing these interactions to start off from? I can go back and try and do it myself, but today is the wife's birthday and tonight and tomorrow are basically about her.

[Robz888]

I will get to it this weekend.

[liopoil]

look, even if there is one marquis and one MU then any scum that we lynch saves Yuma and eliminates a nightkill! there's no reason for us to look specifically for marquis.

Robz, I realize that in this case the MU would be much more powerful than the Maquis. However if I believe what Joth said about role having no bearing on alignment to be strictly true then there is no reason to believe it is more likely to be maquis than MU. Yes it would be a bit imbalanced, but being the setup what it is there is a fair chance of it being imbalanced.

Look, pretty much any setup that has a Serial Killer in it is imbalanced against the Serial Killer, but games with Serial Killers can still be good games.

[Robz888]

True, but the serial killer usually gets his own substantial buffing, like investigative immune or one shot immune.

[Robz888]

Lio, this might just be a misunderstanding because this is your first game with us, but the "regular" games strive for balance. This is a regular game.

[Jimmmmm]

However if I believe what Joth said about role having no bearing on alignment to be strictly true then there is no reason to believe it is more likely to be maquis than MU.

We (I) have already seen joth altering roles for the sake of game balance. Based on that I think that if the Maquis team was just Glooble/Munch, joth would have said to them, "Oh guys the game's really unbalanced against you. Here, Glooble, you can be full Roleblocker." Or something.

[ashersky]

I think we lynch lio, yuma LRs, we sort out the fallout tomorrow.

[Jimmmmm]

Started a re-read on lio. Here's something interesting:

I pretty much agree with everything Glooble as said; so I'm going to join him.

Thoughts?

[Jimmmmm]

More lio thoughts on Glooble and Munch:

Glooble: Well, I guess he hasn't said whole lot either. Slight town read based on he said things which make sense and I agree with.

...

sparky5856 TheMunch. I couldn't figure anything out based on what little sparky said, but I think I person would be slightly less likely to withdraw if they were scum, simply because I think it would be more fun to be scum than station/town. TheMunch has also seemed towny to me.

[Jimmmmm]

I pretty much agree with several of you who voted glooble and then unvoted. He has been helpful when he has posted. His defense has seemed honest. Everyone has been under scrutiny has given a good defense in my eyes actually (glooble, eevee, raerae).

[ashersky]

Jimmmmm makes some very compelling points against eevee. A direct contradiction is always worth pursuing. However, I'm not getting a town vibe from jimmmmm at all. His caution against lynching him when he didn't have a single vote on him rad extremely scummy to me. If he is a town power role, he just help up a huge neon sign saying NIGHTKILL ME, and he seems too smart for thAt. Since I'm highly suspicious of jmmmmm, I'm less inclined to trust his arguments re: eevee. 

Oh yeah they sent me home early from work. I'm on the bus now posting from my phone.

Early D1 scum!glooble post about Jimmmmm.

[ashersky]

Seems to me the thing people are doing is writing up something about each player. So I'm gonna try that.

ashersky: Seems a bit scummy for the case against Raerae. I understand what he's saying but I don't agree with it. I agree we shouldn't always assume "raerae is just being raerae". However I don't think she has acted scummy at all. She has added to the converstation with questions about others, and has stated her beliefs on other things as well. Her defense was also very convincing. I think I remember him being on the Eevee wagon. I didn't like the Eevee wagon.

Robz888: Also on the Eevee wagon. I think he's being a bit over-accusatory. Has been on the lurker's case a bit too much, as have others. At this point the lurkers have had good excuses. Talked about the setup a bunch too. Stuff with the number of mafia is interesting. I'm not as sure about 4 as he is. what about 4 with SK? or even 3-2? He would know more about this if he was scum. Alo would be more likely to talk about it.

Yuma: I think he's station. People talk about invisiyuma lurking, getting away with it, and then winning as scum in the past. He's been talking a lot here though, and it has been helpful stuff.

Eevee: Totally buy his case. I'd go as far to say that he'd be more likely to say "I'm town" post 1 as town than as scum. I can't see him say "I'm station" either. So that case seems really weak to me so I suspect the people who made it. I thought his response to attack was adequate too.

Shraeye: No. Idea. At. All. I actually can't remember his posts too well. Should re-read.

Cuzz:

I am unoffended, but I find it interesting that you are too busy to offer real reads, yet here you are when the opportunity for a joke appears! So I guess you're following pretty closely, just not saying anything? Interesting strategy, I wonder what your Alignment is.

And as I said, I am not following closely, I am vaguely skimming. I'm behind on all the real substance of the last lots of pages, and will catch up tomorrow and be useful then  .

Said he would be useful tomorrow yesterday. If he hasn't been useful by the end of the day than I think he will be the only person worthy of suspicion on the basis of lurking.

Glooble: Well, I guess he hasn't said whole lot either. Slight town read based on he said things which make sense and I agree with.

Raerae: Stood up for herself more viciously than I would think scum would. As I said before I think she has said useful things, asked useful questions. Probably station.

liopoil: clearly town. Agree with him on absolutely everything.

mcmcsalot: Pretty much no read. maybe slightly more scummy than station, but if I had to guess I'd say town because there are more town than scum. Oh wait, he said I was scummy once. Nevermind guys he's scum! 
 
Jimmmmm: I still think he's a bit scummy for the same reasons that I voted him for, but less so now. More stuff has come to light sice then, so Unvote.

theorel: Probably has provided the most, and the highest quality analysis. And I agree with it, so I think he's station.

sparky5856 TheMunch. I couldn't figure anything out based on what little sparky said, but I think I person would be slightly less likely to withdraw if they were scum, simply because I think it would be more fun to be scum than station/town. TheMunch has also seemed towny to me.

Dsell: Only way that he is scum is if he a) was told by Joth in QT that the town was actually station. (unlikely I think) b) He guessed that there would be some flavor name for the town, because there are flavor names for the scum (mirror, maquis, changling). Or maybe there was something in his PM that mentioned "the station" instead of "the town".  The more I think about it the more likely it seems to me that one of these happened. However, if it did he still would have had to get the idea to do this, and have the nerve to go for it. Then again, say he is scum and was rather clever with that post. This would be a reason for him to lurk, because he knows tht he can likely get away with it. Still, I think he is town.

Galzria: Also pretty null. Maybe slight town.

on theory: I think knowledge on the setup helps scum more than town. It lets them make much more educated nightkills. More than it helps town make educated lynch's. This is because the scum already know more about the setup than us.

In summary: town reads: Dsell, Eevee, Raerae, TheMunch, Yuma, Theorel, LIOPOIL
                   Scum reads: Ashersky, Robz888, Jimmmmm.

Did I do it right guys? 

Guys...read his thing on Dsell?  Friskian scum slip?  Told Dsell in the QT???  He knows Dsell is not his neighbor...

[ashersky]

Eh, maybe not.  He is saying IF he is scum...and he would have a QT as a neighbor, so he could be thinking about them.  Never mind, I guess.

[Jimmmmm]

Shraeye has been making good arguments. People who make good points get town reads. So I think shraeye is town. Same with glooble.

PPE: oh cool! glooble voted too.

Maybe an excuse to sheep his scumbuddy?

Galz and raerae I think are town. Leening scum on ash, but he is confusing. munch, glooble, and shraeye I lean town, but munch and shraeye I think are pushing the wagon too hard, in a scummy way.

Shraeye: I think in this case it is silly to group shraeye and munch together, saying that one is likely scum. I didn't see them+raerae grouping together much yesterday. sure they were all on the cuzz lynch, but so were 5 others.

I'm going to do a slightly different version of the lynching thing. I'm going to do it for who I might vote for, not lynch.

Voting: mcmc
wouldn't vote: munch, dsell, eevee, glooble
would vote for if I saw a good reason: everyone else.

Munch has said lots of stuff I agree with, among other things.

PPE: hooray for munch!

That was in response to this:

I am 100% against a liopoil lynch.

10 people left. four people, (munch, Dsell, mcmc, and myself) I have very good solid evidence to believe are town. that leaves six others, probably 3 of which are scum. At this point we really need to lynch scum, preferably wiping out a scum team.

...

that leaves Yuma, glooble, ash, and jimm. I'd like to lynch one of these four today.

very good post Yuma. Town points to you.

Vote: Dsell

I don't want to lynch him. However I want him to give reads on people. maybe even *gasp* vote. jimmmm, glooble, or ash I still think have a better chance of flipping scum.

I thought we were mainly looking at asherky and glooble.

I don't think munch is scum, but, for the whole, "one of munch/shraeye/raerae is scum" to be true he would have to be. FoS people who thought one of them was scum, seems like trying to get two misslynchs.

Well I'm not sure exactly what to make of this. lio started off with Town reads on both Munch and Glooble, and for some unexplained reason his Town read on Glooble seemed to disappear.

Questions for lio:
What happened to your Town read on Glooble?
What was your "solid evidence" that Munch was Town?
Why did you wait until last night to try to kill Dsell?

[Dsell]

*This is not the mega-post you're looking for*

No actually it is. Thanks Jimmmmm.

That's just way too much to ignore. If Liopoil is town, we've all just gotten really unlucky that he's had an unwavering townread on 2 members of a scumteam for the whole game.

Vote: Liopoil

[Dsell]

And by unwavering, I of course mean until his scumbuddy's in big trouble.

To think! We couldn't have lynched wrong yesterday!

[Jimmmmm]

But do you really think scum lio would say that he agrees with pretty much everything that his scumbuddy has said?

[ashersky]

But do you really think scum lio would say that he agrees with pretty much everything that his scumbuddy has said?

Newbie scum lio?  Yes.

[Jimmmmm]

But do you really think scum lio would say that he agrees with pretty much everything that his scumbuddy has said?

Newbie scum lio?  Yes.

Well maybe. I'm just concerned that a Newbie scum player would be more likely to try overly hard to disassociate themselves with their partners. But maybe it is really just a case of obvious scum play is obvious.

[Jimmmmm]

I do think the case on liopoil is fairly good. On the other hand, I'm also a little worried that we're being played by Robz or ash or both. Interested in more thoughts from theorel.