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[ashersky]

@Munch

If I am lynched, and flip town, will that change your read on Robz?

If we lynch Robz, and he flips town, will that change your read on me (or mcmc)?

[TheMunch]

treating my scumbuddy as obvtown has been a recent scum tactic for me that was marvelously successful.

I have some requests. First, Robz, could I have a more concrete reason why you have a strong townread on ashersky besides "he just crazy like that?"

I think he's played way to dangerously to be scum. He has been so over-the-top, he has drummed up insane suspicion on himself. I have been convinced of his towniness since the Cuzz lynch. I don't think scum can afford to push that lynch through so hard. I would just expect more rational, subtle play from scum Ashersky.

The only people I'm NOT really looking at at all are ashersky--he's simply town, all this craziness is him being town

These are just a couple of the cases where robz has voiced a very strong townread on ash, someone who most other people I believe find at least a little sketchy. could be doing the "treat partner as obvtown" thing again. This is especially interesting because of the whole mcmc thing. ash and mcmc can't BOTH be robz's partner if robz is scum.

This was the reason why I was able to jump between "eh scummy" and actually putting a vote on him.  If I think there is a good chance at all that at least one of Ash and Mcmc is Robz partner, then it doesn't actually matter if I'm right about either specifically, the strong town reads which I believe are incredibly undeserved throw up enough flags that I am comfortable enough making him the lynch candidate for today.

[TheMunch]

@Munch

If I am lynched, and flip town, will that change your read on Robz?

If we lynch Robz, and he flips town, will that change your read on me (or mcmc)?

You being town doesn't change my read on Robz.  You AND mcmc flipping town would dampen my read on Robz.  I am confident one of the two of Mcmc/Ash is scum though.

If he flips town... I was just thinking about that as I was writing my last post... The point of the case on Robz is that scumRobz is definitely capablle of throwing down strong town reads on his partners.  If hes town I dont think that effects my read on either Ash or Mcmc.  This is not the first time I've run into a situation where I am forced to choose between clever-scum-robz and bad-play-town-robz.

[liopoil]

Yuma, while I still think it is unlikely that robz is scum and mcmc town, your post makes me recognize it is a real possibility now. Vote: Robz888.

[Robz888]

I don't know why the fact that YOU try the "wrong, day after day" as scum plan makes ME scum. It's frequently joked that I am a horrible town player, constantly reading people wrong. This has happened in many games, M-XVI being the best and most recent example. I think I only cast a single vote for scum at one point (Cuzz), and never lynched a scum,and never even had a scumread on a scum, despite surviving 3 rounds of play.

[Robz888]

@Munch

If I am lynched, and flip town, will that change your read on Robz?

If we lynch Robz, and he flips town, will that change your read on me (or mcmc)?

You being town doesn't change my read on Robz.  You AND mcmc flipping town would dampen my read on Robz.  I am confident one of the two of Mcmc/Ash is scum though.

If he flips town... I was just thinking about that as I was writing my last post... The point of the case on Robz is that scumRobz is definitely capablle of throwing down strong town reads on his partners.  If hes town I dont think that effects my read on either Ash or Mcmc.  This is not the first time I've run into a situation where I am forced to choose between clever-scum-robz and bad-play-town-robz.

These are not good reasons to vote for me. If you are pretty sure one of Mcmc/ash is scum, you should probably vote for one of those people. Especially if me being scum relies on one of them being my partner, in your view.

[TheMunch]

@Munch

If I am lynched, and flip town, will that change your read on Robz?

If we lynch Robz, and he flips town, will that change your read on me (or mcmc)?

You being town doesn't change my read on Robz.  You AND mcmc flipping town would dampen my read on Robz.  I am confident one of the two of Mcmc/Ash is scum though.

If he flips town... I was just thinking about that as I was writing my last post... The point of the case on Robz is that scumRobz is definitely capablle of throwing down strong town reads on his partners.  If hes town I dont think that effects my read on either Ash or Mcmc.  This is not the first time I've run into a situation where I am forced to choose between clever-scum-robz and bad-play-town-robz.

These are not good reasons to vote for me. If you are pretty sure one of Mcmc/ash is scum, you should probably vote for one of those people. Especially if me being scum relies on one of them being my partner, in your view.

I have voted for both of them in the past.  Fortunately I dont need to be write about both of them for my case on you to hold up.  I just need to be right about both of them.  Are you saying we should lynch both Ash and Mcmc (potentially both town) in order to clear your name in just my eyes?

I don't know why the fact that YOU try the "wrong, day after day" as scum plan makes ME scum. It's frequently joked that I am a horrible town player, constantly reading people wrong. This has happened in many games, M-XVI being the best and most recent example. I think I only cast a single vote for scum at one point (Cuzz), and never lynched a scum,and never even had a scumread on a scum, despite surviving 3 rounds of play.

It doesn't make you scum.  I said this in my original post.  It is enough to make me suspicious.  The combination of that with other evidence is what made me vote for you.  I think I've made clear the fact that there there was tipping point in my mind from "eh scummy" to "want to lynch".

[TheMunch]

@Munch

If I am lynched, and flip town, will that change your read on Robz?

If we lynch Robz, and he flips town, will that change your read on me (or mcmc)?

You being town doesn't change my read on Robz.  You AND mcmc flipping town would dampen my read on Robz.  I am confident one of the two of Mcmc/Ash is scum though.

If he flips town... I was just thinking about that as I was writing my last post... The point of the case on Robz is that scumRobz is definitely capablle of throwing down strong town reads on his partners.  If hes town I dont think that effects my read on either Ash or Mcmc.  This is not the first time I've run into a situation where I am forced to choose between clever-scum-robz and bad-play-town-robz.

These are not good reasons to vote for me. If you are pretty sure one of Mcmc/ash is scum, you should probably vote for one of those people. Especially if me being scum relies on one of them being my partner, in your view.

I have voted for both of them in the past.  Fortunately I dont need to be write about both of them for my case on you to hold up.  I just need to be right about both one of them.  Are you saying we should lynch both Ash and Mcmc (potentially both town) in order to clear your name in just my eyes?

I don't know why the fact that YOU try the "wrong, day after day" as scum plan makes ME scum. It's frequently joked that I am a horrible town player, constantly reading people wrong. This has happened in many games, M-XVI being the best and most recent example. I think I only cast a single vote for scum at one point (Cuzz), and never lynched a scum,and never even had a scumread on a scum, despite surviving 3 rounds of play.

It doesn't make you scum.  I said this in my original post.  It is enough to make me suspicious.  The combination of that with other evidence is what made me vote for you.  I think I've made clear the fact that there there was tipping point in my mind from "eh scummy" to "want to lynch".

[ashersky]

@Munch

If I am lynched, and flip town, will that change your read on Robz?

If we lynch Robz, and he flips town, will that change your read on me (or mcmc)?

You being town doesn't change my read on Robz.  You AND mcmc flipping town would dampen my read on Robz.  I am confident one of the two of Mcmc/Ash is scum though.

If he flips town... I was just thinking about that as I was writing my last post... The point of the case on Robz is that scumRobz is definitely capablle of throwing down strong town reads on his partners.  If hes town I dont think that effects my read on either Ash or Mcmc.  This is not the first time I've run into a situation where I am forced to choose between clever-scum-robz and bad-play-town-robz.

Your post basically says that "no matter what Robz actually is, I'm still convinced on Ash and mcmc, too."  That means you think all three of us are remaining scum?  And that even if you are wrong on one or two of us, you are still convinced on the other? 

Welp, that's stubborn, tunnelling town!munch if I've ever seen it.

I won't vote for Munch today, but man he's killing town with that attitude.

[TheMunch]

@Munch

If I am lynched, and flip town, will that change your read on Robz?

If we lynch Robz, and he flips town, will that change your read on me (or mcmc)?

You being town doesn't change my read on Robz.  You AND mcmc flipping town would dampen my read on Robz.  I am confident one of the two of Mcmc/Ash is scum though.

If he flips town... I was just thinking about that as I was writing my last post... The point of the case on Robz is that scumRobz is definitely capablle of throwing down strong town reads on his partners.  If hes town I dont think that effects my read on either Ash or Mcmc.  This is not the first time I've run into a situation where I am forced to choose between clever-scum-robz and bad-play-town-robz.

Your post basically says that "no matter what Robz actually is, I'm still convinced on Ash and mcmc, too."  That means you think all three of us are remaining scum?  And that even if you are wrong on one or two of us, you are still convinced on the other? 

Welp, that's stubborn, tunnelling town!munch if I've ever seen it.

I won't vote for Munch today, but man he's killing town with that attitude.

I think one of Ash/Mcmc is scum.  I have thought this before I had a scum read on Robz.  I am relatively confident of this.
If one of Ash/Mcmc is scum, I can see Robz being scum and specifically one of their partners.

If Robz is scum, this gives credit to the idea that one of Ash/Mcmc is Robz partner.
If Robz isn't scum, it doesn't not devalue the reads that I already had on Ash/Mcmc.

[theorel]

Reread yuma day1.
Nothing stands out to me there.  He seldom, but occasionally engaged Galzria in conversation.  I don't see a reason to really suspect him as Galzria's partner, except Galz' interaction with him, which seems a little off, and yuma being off the Cuzz-wagon.  It's really frustrating actually, in looking at the Cuzz-wagon the player to lynch looks to me like yuma.  I think I need to look at a wagon-analysis, yuma did one earlier, but I'm going to only look at lynches that went through.

It's interesting actually, living players off-wagon:
myself, Jimmmmm, yuma, Dsell, mcmcsalot
living players on-wagon:
Robz, ashersky, Munch, Glooble, liopoil.

That's an interesting even split.

Now, the Eevee-lynch, on-wagon:
ashersky, TheMunch, liopoil, yuma, mcmcsalot, Robz888
off-wagon:
myself, Jimmmmm, Dsell, Glooble

Let's suppose for a moment that there are 2 scum still alive who split on both lynches.  Then candidates would be:
myself-Robz, ashersky, munch, or liopoil
Jimmmmm-Robz, ashersky, munch, or liopoil
Dsell-Robz, ashersky, munch, liopoil
Glooble-mcmcsalot, yuma

Interestingly shraeye was on both wagons and killed.
That makes myself, Jimmmmm, and Dsell scummiest there.
I'm town, and Dsell seems likely enough to be town.  So, that leaves Jimmmmm.  Which is insufficient to finish Galz' team, and be on another team also.
SO, I must conclude that it's more likely that scum is killing on-wagon taking a "bold" move.  This actually makes me suspect yuma somewhat less, and suspect Glooble somewhat more.

So, I think I could get behind a Glooble lynch.  I'm not sure that I prefer it to lynching Robz.  But then I'm not sure how good an idea it is to lynch Robz either.  On the one hand (unlike Munch) I think Robz' flip could be pretty meaningful.  If he's town, then I think mcmcsalot is really likely town.  If he's scum, I could see it going either way (unless he's not a tracker, in which case mcmcsalot is clearly scum).  But, I also think he's at least a little more likely to flip town than Glooble.

So, I'm going to vote: Glooble and see where that takes us.

[yuma]

@yuma: that was a good clarification of the case on Glooble from my perspective.

I think to me the essential question is: was the shraeye read genuine or made up?

Because realistically, that's the difference between our positions...I agree with your other points, but I'm basically leaning town on him for his defense of shraeye, while you're leaning scum on him for essentially the same reason.  When I look at that "shraeye and Galz are towny but scummier if Cuzz flips town" thing, I agree that it can be read as an excuse to read Galz as townier if Cuzz flips scum.  BUT it reads as an excuse to read primarily shraeye (not Galz) as scummier if Cuzz does flip town.  I mean, sure it could be an excuse to bus, but let's face it scum isn't generally looking for an "excuse" to bus.  His claim that shraeye would look scummy but then NOT finding shraeye scummy seems like such a town thing to do, not a scum thing to do.  So, I come to the completely opposite conclusion: Glooble is townier because he stuck by that town-read when he could have gone to a scum-read if he was scum.

These are some good points. And making me really look back and see how I am looking at this, because I hadn't fully considered this in this light. I mean, I guess part of this problem is that I started from the view point of who could be a potential Galz's partner and worked backwards to reach Glooble. So perhaps my read of these posts and events is due to some sort of bias in looking at that direction whereas yours is from looking at the opposite direction. I need to think on this more...

But it appears to be ironic that you have convinced me to question my read on Glooble whereas it appears that I have caused you to question your read on Glooble and vote for him, although your vote seems more based off wagon analysis, which to be honest I didn't completely understand.... not that I am against your vote, I still think--despite my new slight reservations--that he is the best lynch for today, but rather I wonder if you could re-explain this why this wagon analysis points to Glooble. I don't doubt that it does, but I just can't quite make the connection from what you wrote.

[yuma]

Yuma, while I still think it is unlikely that robz is scum and mcmc town, your post makes me recognize it is a real possibility now. Vote: Robz888.

don't use me as an excuse for your vote. I don't think Robz is the lynch choice for today... and said so in the post that you are apparently using to justify this post...

[mcmcsalot]

@yuma: that was a good clarification of the case on Glooble from my perspective.

I think to me the essential question is: was the shraeye read genuine or made up?

Because realistically, that's the difference between our positions...I agree with your other points, but I'm basically leaning town on him for his defense of shraeye, while you're leaning scum on him for essentially the same reason.  When I look at that "shraeye and Galz are towny but scummier if Cuzz flips town" thing, I agree that it can be read as an excuse to read Galz as townier if Cuzz flips scum.  BUT it reads as an excuse to read primarily shraeye (not Galz) as scummier if Cuzz does flip town.  I mean, sure it could be an excuse to bus, but let's face it scum isn't generally looking for an "excuse" to bus.  His claim that shraeye would look scummy but then NOT finding shraeye scummy seems like such a town thing to do, not a scum thing to do.  So, I come to the completely opposite conclusion: Glooble is townier because he stuck by that town-read when he could have gone to a scum-read if he was scum.

These are some good points. And making me really look back and see how I am looking at this, because I hadn't fully considered this in this light. I mean, I guess part of this problem is that I started from the view point of who could be a potential Galz's partner and worked backwards to reach Glooble. So perhaps my read of these posts and events is due to some sort of bias in looking at that direction whereas yours is from looking at the opposite direction. I need to think on this more...

But it appears to be ironic that you have convinced me to question my read on Glooble whereas it appears that I have caused you to question your read on Glooble and vote for him, although your vote seems more based off wagon analysis, which to be honest I didn't completely understand.... not that I am against your vote, I still think--despite my new slight reservations--that he is the best lynch for today, but rather I wonder if you could re-explain this why this wagon analysis points to Glooble. I don't doubt that it does, but I just can't quite make the connection from what you wrote.

I still believe liopoil is the best lynch for the day.

[ashersky]

can we get a prod of the mod?  What's the latest vote count?  It's been like ten pages.

[theorel]

@yuma: that was a good clarification of the case on Glooble from my perspective.

I think to me the essential question is: was the shraeye read genuine or made up?

Because realistically, that's the difference between our positions...I agree with your other points, but I'm basically leaning town on him for his defense of shraeye, while you're leaning scum on him for essentially the same reason.  When I look at that "shraeye and Galz are towny but scummier if Cuzz flips town" thing, I agree that it can be read as an excuse to read Galz as townier if Cuzz flips scum.  BUT it reads as an excuse to read primarily shraeye (not Galz) as scummier if Cuzz does flip town.  I mean, sure it could be an excuse to bus, but let's face it scum isn't generally looking for an "excuse" to bus.  His claim that shraeye would look scummy but then NOT finding shraeye scummy seems like such a town thing to do, not a scum thing to do.  So, I come to the completely opposite conclusion: Glooble is townier because he stuck by that town-read when he could have gone to a scum-read if he was scum.

These are some good points. And making me really look back and see how I am looking at this, because I hadn't fully considered this in this light. I mean, I guess part of this problem is that I started from the view point of who could be a potential Galz's partner and worked backwards to reach Glooble. So perhaps my read of these posts and events is due to some sort of bias in looking at that direction whereas yours is from looking at the opposite direction. I need to think on this more...

But it appears to be ironic that you have convinced me to question my read on Glooble whereas it appears that I have caused you to question your read on Glooble and vote for him, although your vote seems more based off wagon analysis, which to be honest I didn't completely understand.... not that I am against your vote, I still think--despite my new slight reservations--that he is the best lynch for today, but rather I wonder if you could re-explain this why this wagon analysis points to Glooble. I don't doubt that it does, but I just can't quite make the connection from what you wrote.

Ah, right, I can see why that might be confusing.  I don't think the wagon analysis points to Glooble, I think it discounts the idea which I was still harboring that Galz' partner wasn't on the Cuzz-lynch.  I did go off on a tangent where I wondered if there would be an obvious pairing assuming the "other" team had a 1-on, 1-off tendency.  Then I got distracted by the idea that basically there were 4 options there, and only 2 of them were viable.  So one of the following must be true: the supposition that both teams are going 1-on, 1-off based on them NKing people on-wagon is wrong  OR both Jimmmmm and Glooble are scum OR Dsell is scum (you could include me in this last category, but that's not actually an option from my perspective).
Note: I'm assuming that Galz' partner would have been off the Eevee-lynch here as part of the they wouldn't kill raerae when they're both on the Cuzz-lynch supposition.  Because killing shraeye when you are scum on the Eevee-wagon is similar in "bold"ness to killing raerae as scum on the Cuzz-lynch.

If I go with option 2, well, Glooble is a good lynch obviously.
If I go with option 1, then Glooble loses the bit of his town-read coming from him being with Galzria on the Cuzz-lynch. 

Then I have to acknowledge that though I got a town-read from his shraeye-read, both you and shraeye got scumreads off of it/in spite of it.  That's enough for me to vote there, because I think I can have a tendency to stay away from wagons to the detriment of town.  I'm generally too hesitant with my vote (which is why I often end up in a hammering position, which someone else often still takes from me).  So, I'm no longer opposed to a Glooble-lynch, and someone has to go with weaker scum-reads.  Honestly, all of my scum-reads are pretty weak at the moment; also, I'm wrong a lot...so it might as well be me.

[yuma]

I am confident one of the two of Mcmc/Ash is scum though.

If he flips town... I was just thinking about that as I was writing my last post... The point of the case on Robz is that scumRobz is definitely capablle of throwing down strong town reads on his partners.  If hes town I dont think that effects my read on either Ash or Mcmc.  This is not the first time I've run into a situation where I am forced to choose between clever-scum-robz and bad-play-town-robz.

I'm sorry but I just don't understand this post in the context of your vote on Robz... I mean I could see you voting Robz if we were getting close to lynch deadline and he was a viable wagon and we needed to get a lynch through. But right now? With other options available, including one of the people you are "confident is scum", voting Robz doesn't make sense to me.... I guess what is the point of trying to get Robz lynched if you think scum is elsewhere? Am I missing something?

[yuma]

This is really the final post that turns my scum suspicion on robz into a full blown will-lynch.  Robz has now expressed a strong town read on my two top scum reads.  Theorel posted what I was thinking regarding why specifically singling out Ashersky for his participation on the Cuzz lynch is strange.  So thats why I am willing to lynch him.  The read on Ashersky is so out of place.  I dont think anyone that has played as much as Robz has should ever "expect more rational subtle play from scum Ashersky".  I dont expect rational subtle anything from anything!Ashersky.

Since then Robz has responded to this with:

I don't know, maybe my town read on Ash is more meta than anything else. And my reads have not been good this game. But I really, really don't think scum!Ashersky plays this way, because playing this way was likely to get him lynched.

This doesn't really make much sense to me.  How can Robz say that his reads have been not so good and then fervently cling to the notion that his meta reads actually work?  (my answer: because his read on Ashersky isn't genuine)

why aren't you suspicious of me then? I have a strong townread on ash, and while a scummy read on mcmc I don't want to vote him today--see my previous analysis that says voting for him requires more understanding of what scumteams exist.

So why is Robz scummy for this and I am not? Robz and I actually have pretty similar reasons for why we think ash is town. Not exactly the same, but pretty similar. My read is very meta based, but also based on my time spend playing or modding over ash. Yes crazy ash to me is very townash. But it is more than that as well. When ash is scum he creates cases based off nothing--this is what I was looking for in players Day1 because to me it is a scumtell. Ash did this with me as scum in MXIV and as scum in MXV--where I spotted it day1 and called him out on it. But he has not done that in any game where he was town, nor has he done it today.

[raerae]

Snagging mod status and working on a vote count.  Stay tuned...

[raerae]

Vote Count 3.3

ashersky (1): Glooble
Glooble (L-3): ashersky, yuma, theorel
liopoil (1): mcmcsalot
Robz888 (2): TheMunch, liopoil

Not Voting (3): Robz888, Dsell, Jimmmmm
With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.
Deadline is February 8th at noon, forum time.

[yuma]

anyone remember this quote:

ScumDsell is not lurker scum. With that said, I am not going to fall behind in this game again.

Dsell hasn't posted since the 26th.

A little bit later tonight I am going to do that daily vote count I mentioned earlier...

[yuma]

1. ashersky total: 294; 177 from day 1 (60%); 93 from day2 (32%); 24 from day3 (8%)
2. Robz total: 254 169 from day 1 (66%); 61 from day2 (24%); 24 from day3 (9%)
3. yuma total: 134;  73 from day 1 (54%); 41 from day2 (30%); 20 from day3 (15%)
7. Glooble total: 63; 35 from day 1 (55%); 24 from day2 (38%); 4 from day3 (6%)
9. liopoil total: 91; 37 from day 1 (40%); 36 from day2 (40%); 18 from day3 (20%)
10. mcmcsalot  total: 91; 48 from day 1 (52%); 31 from day2 (34%); 12 from day3 (13%)
11. Jimmmmm total: 170; 127 from day 1 (74%); 35 from day2 (21%) ; 8 from day3 (4%)
12. theorel total: 71; 26 from day 1 (36%); 33 from day2 (46%); 12 from day3 (16%)
13. themunch total: 109; 49 from day1 (45%); 42 from day2 (38%); 18 from day3 (16%)
14. Dsell total: 44; 30 from day1 (68%); 8 from day2 (18%); 6 from day3 (13%)

So this is just a breakdown of posts per day and percentage of total posts per day. Big things that struck out to me was Jimmmm diminishing posts (I mean just about everyone is diminishing in posts (partially because the day is not yet over), but he has dramatically decreased as the days have gone by. Glooble is similar, but on a smaller scale because he posts less. And Dsell actually is about up to speed % wise, but lagging far far behind in total. Whereas Robz and ash aren't quite up to speed % wise, but still have a greater than average total posts in all days.

So big take away FOS: Jimmmm and Glooble (hey look I am already voting there) as I continue to think that it becomes increasingly harder for scum to writer posts, especially posts that are meaningful and not likely to create suspicion, as the game goes on.

[ashersky]

1. ashersky total: 294; 177 from day 1 (60%); 93 from day2 (32%); 24 from day3 (8%)
2. Robz total: 254 169 from day 1 (66%); 61 from day2 (24%); 24 from day3 (9%)
3. yuma total: 134;  73 from day 1 (54%); 41 from day2 (30%); 20 from day3 (15%)
7. Glooble total: 63; 35 from day 1 (55%); 24 from day2 (38%); 4 from day3 (6%)
9. liopoil total: 91; 37 from day 1 (40%); 36 from day2 (40%); 18 from day3 (20%)
10. mcmcsalot  total: 91; 48 from day 1 (52%); 31 from day2 (34%); 12 from day3 (13%)
11. Jimmmmm total: 170; 127 from day 1 (74%); 35 from day2 (21%) ; 8 from day3 (4%)
12. theorel total: 71; 26 from day 1 (36%); 33 from day2 (46%); 12 from day3 (16%)
13. themunch total: 109; 49 from day1 (45%); 42 from day2 (38%); 18 from day3 (16%)
14. Dsell total: 44; 30 from day1 (68%); 8 from day2 (18%); 6 from day3 (13%)

Thanks to yuma for this, that's a good amount of work.  I think the take away for me is further suspicion of Jimmmmm.

[mcmcsalot]

Two things before I go to bed,
1) now that the glooble case has been laid out I do see the possibility of scum!glooble, I would be confident enough to put my vote there seeing as I don't think a liopoil lunch is going to happe.
2) didn't we at one point feel certain there was scum in munch/shraeye/raerae. I was confused on why this was, baisically I remember people thinking one scum was likely to hide behind the irl relationship with the others. I bring it up because a few people were certain about this and I wonder if they still feel that way.

vote: glooble

[jotheonah]

Snagging mod status and working on a vote count.  Stay tuned...

Gold star.