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[Jimmmmm]

When he's feeling up to it, I'd like to hear more from Robz on the Munshraeraeye thing. I think he first mentioned it, and I can't think of anyone else off the top of my head. On the face of it, "one of them is hiding behind the other two" doesn't seem like a great argument, but "shreaye is hiding behind the other two", or "Munch is hiding behind the other two" seem okay if there's some evidence to support it. If there's no evidence, it seems like it could be a great way for scum to put suspicion on 2-3 people who they know they are not aligned with.

[ashersky]

I was pressing the munshraeray theory as much as Robz.

+1 for Munch slipping in the "catching ashersky" jab into his post.  He really is silly wrong.  I can't wait to hit L-1, being forced to claim, and then mega-lynched.

I'll do my best to come up with an appropriate disappointment post for the night thread, a la Robz.

[ashersky]

In the interest of getting something going to analyze:

vote: Shraeye

Medium scum read there, a few people have said he's a top scum read but no one seems willing to vote.  Let's see if we can get a wagon going, at least for analysis's sake.

[Jimmmmm]

Yeah, I'm happy to Vote: shraeye.

[Jimmmmm]

Although, ash playing up the guilt trip is making me wary of him.

[theorel]

So I don't think there is any greater chance of finding scum between shraeye and themunch than any other two players. I think this has been a road of faulty logic that we as town have gone down. Now the question is such: who is more likely to create this type of myth? Town or scum?

I don't think it's been any kind of logic that "we as a town" have gone down.  I think it's faulty logic that Robz/ashersky were pushing.  I could be wrong and others adopted it, but mostly I've just seen people disagree with it.  I find it just as likely that public sentiment was opposed to it and so scum has blown-back against the "mysterious people who started it" as scum pushing it in the first place.

Here's what I remember about it:
1. I grouped shraeye-raerae together in my first scattershot analysis(which raerae took issue with).  There had been RVS + Contradiction case by Jimmmmm.  raerae had demanded explanations with her "not wearing pants" comment, shraeye joked back with her, and confirmed a similar position.  Then shraeye argued that there was no contradiction, and raerae argued the same thing.

2. ashersky accused raerae independent of shraeye.  Upon review I noted that it looked like raerae may potentially have been copying shraeye (as yuma mentioned in his review just now too as the only really scummy version of this).  But then raerae's flipped town, so that's obviously not what happened.

Anyways this was all before Munch.  But it's something of the early-game stuff about shraeye-raerae.  There was other stuff about shraerae in there somewhere.  But including Munch I think was mostly done by Robz...of course someone might correct me there, but I think there have been more arguments against it than for it.

[shraeye]

With this new evidence from Yuma I would love to reread anyone (cause I want to do something; I feel like I've been limping through cause I haven't really cared about much since I caught Ashersky) that has been pushing the groupthink on munch/shraeye/raerae and see if I see anything specific.  Does anyone know which players are specifically guilty of doing so?  Otherwise tomorrow I will just skim for a list of players that have expressed these opinions and see what I can find.

If you're looking for something to do, you could answer my question of you.

Mcmc: This is one I think I am missing details cause I definitely wasn't giving it 100% after page 40, but didn't mcmc say that he was going to hammer cuzz then never ended up on the lynch?

Munch, you have posted a ton about ashersky.  Please tell me about mcmc.  You said you wanted to look at him, have you? What have you found?

[shraeye]

That last post is directed at TheMunch.

Here's one directed at Dsell (well everyone, I guess)

Does anyone else find this strange?  Dsell, what say you?

I just haven't found your contributions particularly compelling or memorable, whereas usually when you're town, you're like at the front of everything and it's impossible to forget your opinions.

Isn't the compelling/memorable part of my contributions (regarding the Cuzz wagon, which I definitely was an instigator of) most of the reason that people are suspecting me today??

It seems that you're giving people here just an extra reason to find me scummy, and that reason rings false, because it seems in direct contradiction to the reasons that other people are having scumreads on me.  It's just that when somebody says
"Shraeye seems to be posting a lot without contributing a lot, and that is ScumShraeye, right?" I think the reaction from people who already see me as scummy is "*nodnod* he ISSS scummy, I'm glad somebody else sees that".

When it should be "hey wait, I'm busy suspecting him because of his scummy contributions and now Dsell is saying that he isn't contributing a lot? "

It just looks like an easy way to fan the flames of a lynch that at this point does seem fairly likely.

In short; FoS: Dsell.

[shraeye]

yeah, i think you may actually be right, theorel.  I've been thinking on where the scum would be in a situation like this.  Originally it felt a lot like they would be behind the "at least one in these three" argument, because I was very worried for the implications if Munch were town as well.

But I don't recall many people other than ashersky/Robz saying this, and I do recall people pushing back (well...me, yuma, Munch, liopoil after prodding by me to answer the question)

[shraeye]

Here's the question that people thinking about me need to contemplate.  Near the end of day 1, there was that insane fast wagon that built on me  (Jimmm, eevee, yuma, asher, robz, Cuzz; in order).  I'd say this got kicked off with yuma's call for people to get votes down (this one) and then went to Cuzz's vote 1169.

Is it very scummy to be the counter-wagon to town?  I don't think so.  In the span of 13 minutes, 6 people were super willing to save the claimed town SK-cop and vote for me instead.  And while this was going on, the wagon on Cuzz didn't dwindle too much and the majority of people seemed ok with pushing that lynch through.  Since that meant there was no need to unvote:Cuzz to save face.  If I were on a scumteam with any of those people, that would have been a very bold and rash alternative to letting the Cuzz lynch go through.

That would mean if I were scum, my most likely partners would be on the Cuzz wagon with me which is dangerous, or mcmcsalot, Dsell, or theorel (wait, you didn't vote for me theorel?  I thought you had, did I miss something?)

[jotheonah]

Meanwhile, the station is falling apart as O'Brien is too inconsolable over Julian's death to supervise his repair teams.

Garak, too has stopped showing up for work, so hopefully no one needed anything tailored.

Or otherwise ... attended to.

Vote Count 2.2

ashersky (1): The Munch
shraeye (3): Eevee, ashersky, Jimmmmm

Not voting (8): shraeye, Glooble, liopoil, Robz888, mcmcsalot, yuma, Dsell, theorel

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline is Thursday, January 24th at 7:00 am forum time.

[yuma]

Here's the question that people thinking about me need to contemplate.  Near the end of day 1, there was that insane fast wagon that built on me  (Jimmm, eevee, yuma, asher, robz, Cuzz; in order).  I'd say this got kicked off with yuma's call for people to get votes down (this one) and then went to Cuzz's vote 1169.

Is it very scummy to be the counter-wagon to town?  I don't think so.  In the span of 13 minutes, 6 people were super willing to save the claimed town SK-cop and vote for me instead.  And while this was going on, the wagon on Cuzz didn't dwindle too much and the majority of people seemed ok with pushing that lynch through.  Since that meant there was no need to unvote:Cuzz to save face.  If I were on a scumteam with any of those people, that would have been a very bold and rash alternative to letting the Cuzz lynch go through.

That would mean if I were scum, my most likely partners would be on the Cuzz wagon with me which is dangerous, or mcmcsalot, Dsell, or theorel (wait, you didn't vote for me theorel?  I thought you had, did I miss something?)

theorel voted for you earlier in the day way before the late wagon on you started up. but by that time I believe he had moved his vote. You do bring up an interesting question. And I am further going to ask this question... after my post that you reference there is a vote for robz (by me) and a vote for raerae (by ash) before your wagon starts up. The question I want to discuss is why your wagon picked up, whereas the other two did not?

I kinda agree with you about your points about being the counter-wagon to town. But with a couple of caveats.

1. we are playing with some pretty bold and rash players... and I wouldn't put anything past any of them.
 
2. you don't include Galz or lio in this... yes they were on the Cuzz wagon, but weren't around (Galz was a bit after the fact and FOS the people on your wagon pretty loudly) but lio wasn't on at all during your wagon formation.... same for Glooble and TheMunch... I don't know what any of these players would have done if they had been online during that craziness, perhaps even they wouldn't know. (oh, I do see that you do include them... when you say "my most likely partners would be on the Cuzz wagon with me which is dangerous" because all of these players were on the wagon. So I guess this caveat is moot. but it makes me wonder this...

3. what you mean by saying "which is dangerous?" What is dangerous?

[theorel]

Here's the question that people thinking about me need to contemplate.  Near the end of day 1, there was that insane fast wagon that built on me  (Jimmm, eevee, yuma, asher, robz, Cuzz; in order).  I'd say this got kicked off with yuma's call for people to get votes down (this one) and then went to Cuzz's vote 1169.

Is it very scummy to be the counter-wagon to town?  I don't think so.  In the span of 13 minutes, 6 people were super willing to save the claimed town SK-cop and vote for me instead.  And while this was going on, the wagon on Cuzz didn't dwindle too much and the majority of people seemed ok with pushing that lynch through.  Since that meant there was no need to unvote:Cuzz to save face.  If I were on a scumteam with any of those people, that would have been a very bold and rash alternative to letting the Cuzz lynch go through.

That would mean if I were scum, my most likely partners would be on the Cuzz wagon with me which is dangerous, or mcmcsalot, Dsell, or theorel (wait, you didn't vote for me theorel?  I thought you had, did I miss something?)

I had unvoted by that time, and I wasn't around when the quick-wagon built on you.  I probably would have voted for you then?  Since I still thought you were a better lynch than Cuzz.

I think it's perfectly normal for scum to vote together in multi-ball.  Assuming a scum-team of 2, that's a very small voting block, and so I wouldn't find it unreasonable for your partner to be on-wagon.  Now, it would be weird that you killed Galzria being on-wagon together.  Just like it would be weird for Galzria to kill raerae if his partner is on-wagon.  Hmm....I'll have to think about it.  I thought mcmcsalot seemed like a potential partner yesterday (for chainsaw defense I think)...which means that I don't find it remarkably unlikely that it's just the two of you.  However, I must allow logic to prevail and note that in fact it's just not that likely.  So, that means there are three possibilities: bussing, double-scum on wagon with a NK on-wagon as well, and you+mcmc/dsell as scum.  None of these individually is likely, but none of them is impossible either.  I'll consider other targets...

[mcmcsalot]

So with the way ash is constantly responding I'm much more supportive of a ash lynch then a shraeye lynch. Actually I believe I had a strong scum read on ash early that was lost in the size of D1. Yes with the responses ash has been giving D2 I think i'm comfortable with a Vote: Ashersky

[mcmcsalot]

Here's the question that people thinking about me need to contemplate.  Near the end of day 1, there was that insane fast wagon that built on me  (Jimmm, eevee, yuma, asher, robz, Cuzz; in order).  I'd say this got kicked off with yuma's call for people to get votes down (this one) and then went to Cuzz's vote 1169.

Is it very scummy to be the counter-wagon to town?  I don't think so.  In the span of 13 minutes, 6 people were super willing to save the claimed town SK-cop and vote for me instead.  And while this was going on, the wagon on Cuzz didn't dwindle too much and the majority of people seemed ok with pushing that lynch through.  Since that meant there was no need to unvote:Cuzz to save face.  If I were on a scumteam with any of those people, that would have been a very bold and rash alternative to letting the Cuzz lynch go through.

That would mean if I were scum, my most likely partners would be on the Cuzz wagon with me which is dangerous, or mcmcsalot, Dsell, or theorel (wait, you didn't vote for me theorel?  I thought you had, did I miss something?)

I had unvoted by that time, and I wasn't around when the quick-wagon built on you.  I probably would have voted for you then?  Since I still thought you were a better lynch than Cuzz.

I think it's perfectly normal for scum to vote together in multi-ball.  Assuming a scum-team of 2, that's a very small voting block, and so I wouldn't find it unreasonable for your partner to be on-wagon.  Now, it would be weird that you killed Galzria being on-wagon together.  Just like it would be weird for Galzria to kill raerae if his partner is on-wagon.  Hmm....I'll have to think about it.  I thought mcmcsalot seemed like a potential partner yesterday (for chainsaw defense I think)...which means that I don't find it remarkably unlikely that it's just the two of you.  However, I must allow logic to prevail and note that in fact it's just not that likely.  So, that means there are three possibilities: bussing, double-scum on wagon with a NK on-wagon as well, and you+mcmc/dsell as scum.  None of these individually is likely, but none of them is impossible either.  I'll consider other targets...

I was also gone when the quick wagon was formed on shraeye. Had I been around I don't think I would have been crazy supportive of the quick wagon, as D1 was already too long and I had expressed intent to hammer cuzz.

[ashersky]

So with the way ash is constantly responding I'm much more supportive of a ash lynch then a shraeye lynch. Actually I believe I had a strong scum read on ash early that was lost in the size of D1. Yes with the responses ash has been giving D2 I think i'm comfortable with a Vote: Ashersky

You all realize (well, some of you, I'm sure) that its posts like these that egg me on to stay ridiculous.

[yuma]

So with the way ash is constantly responding I'm much more supportive of a ash lynch then a shraeye lynch. Actually I believe I had a strong scum read on ash early that was lost in the size of D1. Yes with the responses ash has been giving D2 I think i'm comfortable with a Vote: Ashersky

You all realize (well, some of you, I'm sure) that its posts like these that egg me on to stay ridiculous.

yes, mcmc what exactly are you saying here? "the way ash is constantly responding?" what does that mean. But ash, no it isn't a reason to be ridiculous...

[shraeye]

3. what you mean by saying "which is dangerous?" What is dangerous?

This is what I'm saying about "If I were scum and my partner were on Cuzz's lynch with me, we would be playing dangerously"

Now, it would be weird that you killed Galzria being on-wagon together.  Just like it would be weird for Galzria to kill raerae if his partner is on-wagon. 

Either I'm on a team with Galz, and me/him killed raerae even though we were both on Cuzz.

Or I'm on a team other than Galz.  And me/partner decided to kill Galz who was also on wagon.

Either way we're dwindling an obvious pool of targets which includes both of us.

[TheMunch]

If you're looking for something to do, you could answer my question of you.

Mcmc: This is one I think I am missing details cause I definitely wasn't giving it 100% after page 40, but didn't mcmc say that he was going to hammer cuzz then never ended up on the lynch?

Munch, you have posted a ton about ashersky.  Please tell me about mcmc.  You said you wanted to look at him, have you? What have you found?

So I opened today with 2 reads:  Ashersky's odd end of the day play, and mcmc's "I'll hammer" then goes off the radar.

Obviously I've talked about Ashersky ad nauseum and I nearly completely forgot about my mcmc thing.  I remember why I forgot.  Mcmc responded pretty shortly thereafter and I didn't like his response, but didn't really have anything solid to debate regarding it without doing some rereading so I thought "eh, I'll get back to it" then I never did.  Whoops.

So I reread the end of the day with mcmc's defense in mind (it was basically "I wanted people to answer cuzz's question and by the time I came back he was dead").  I can see that this is what mcmc wants to say he was doing but on reread it felt very hollow.  He made the post that he wanted to wait for people to answer cuzz's question.  Called out Raerae once, and then said "oh people have said a bunch, I guess Cuzz isn't dead yet, I'm going to sleep."  There is nothing inherently wrong about going to sleep or sleeping through deadline but I dont like the juxtaposition of all of:

- Vocally stating intent to hammer
- Waiting for responses to Cuzz's question
- Not actually pushing very hard that that was what he was waiting for
- His last post of the day  that acknowledges the possibility that Cuzz could have died while he was gone while leaving unceremoniously.

This all gives a ton of "I want to look like I would have voted for Cuzz"  While not actually caring one way or another if Cuzz got lynched.

Yuma also commented on Mcmc in 1513.  I think Ashersky has been quite scummy, and would be more than happy if he got lynched but I do not like the way that mcmc threw his vote down.  "Oh I guess I used to have scum reads on him".  It feels like one of the scummier votes I've seen in a while.  I think all this is scummy enough on re-inspection that I am comfortable changing my vote.  Vote: Mcmc

[Robz888]

Hey guys, I'm fleeing miraculously better today (despite yuma's informed naysaying), and will post my thoughts in a bit.

[Robz888]

Okay, ready.

Vote: shraeye, for a million reason.

First off, he is most solely responsible for creating the Cuzz wagon. He built up the entire intellectual defense of it. He then was not around when Cuzz claimed Cop, but reappeared only to say that his mind was not one bit changed by the claim. This always bothered me, and continues to bother me. I know I agonized over whether Cuzz was the right lynch, trying to balance such factors as a need to end the day soon, the fact that Cuzz's answers were manifestly terrible and at times sounded like lies... with other factors such as the fact that he was a freaking cop, and that some of the pieces of evidence against him did not hold up to scrutiny. But shraeye was completely decisive.

The people trying to chip away at my "Munchshraerae monstrosity" case have a valid point, to an extent. They are of course three different people who have done many different things. But they have A LOT of big similarities, in that they were three of the most vocal proponents of the Cuzz lynch, did not waiver at key times in the decision making, each took up the charge when the other was gone, never voted for each other, and rarely if ever criticized each other. Maybe I can get Eevee to back me up here; in Blitz whatever, Munch and shraeye were the scumteam, along with Insomniac. Munch made a comment at the beginning of the game that shraeye didn't even know the game had started, and he was going to tell him (they are IRL roommates). I was the Innocent Child, along with I think Jimm. We got Insomniac, but in the end I didn't predict shraeye/Munch for the scumteam, and we lost. It came down to a bunch of things, but chief among them was, I let scum!shraeye and scum!Munch essentially hide behind their IRL relationship (legit scum tactic, by the way, so good for them). And I am really worried about that happening again here, mainly because I see the three of them so much in sync (although not completely in sync!). Now, raerae is dead and town, fine. But the extent to which Munch and shraeye have had each others backs, both yesterday and today... I could really see one of them taking advantage of the other as scum, or I could even see them both being scum. Now, the question is, could the play the three of them did have happened if all three were just plain old town, naturally buddying each other? The answer is yes, of course yes. Is it more likely than the other two scenarios? I am betting, I am hoping, no.

I actually have another reason to go shraeye here, but I can't share it yet. However, I should be able to explain it pretty soon. It's nothing like night powers or any of that, so don't get your hopes up. And don't try to puzzle out why I can't say it yet. I'll be able to explain it very soon, I think, and worst case scenario, definitely before deadline.

[mcmcsalot]

If you're looking for something to do, you could answer my question of you.

Mcmc: This is one I think I am missing details cause I definitely wasn't giving it 100% after page 40, but didn't mcmc say that he was going to hammer cuzz then never ended up on the lynch?

Munch, you have posted a ton about ashersky.  Please tell me about mcmc.  You said you wanted to look at him, have you? What have you found?

So I opened today with 2 reads:  Ashersky's odd end of the day play, and mcmc's "I'll hammer" then goes off the radar.

Obviously I've talked about Ashersky ad nauseum and I nearly completely forgot about my mcmc thing.  I remember why I forgot.  Mcmc responded pretty shortly thereafter and I didn't like his response, but didn't really have anything solid to debate regarding it without doing some rereading so I thought "eh, I'll get back to it" then I never did.  Whoops.

So I reread the end of the day with mcmc's defense in mind (it was basically "I wanted people to answer cuzz's question and by the time I came back he was dead").  I can see that this is what mcmc wants to say he was doing but on reread it felt very hollow.  He made the post that he wanted to wait for people to answer cuzz's question.  Called out Raerae once, and then said "oh people have said a bunch, I guess Cuzz isn't dead yet, I'm going to sleep."  There is nothing inherently wrong about going to sleep or sleeping through deadline but I dont like the juxtaposition of all of:

- Vocally stating intent to hammer
- Waiting for responses to Cuzz's question
- Not actually pushing very hard that that was what he was waiting for
- His last post of the day  that acknowledges the possibility that Cuzz could have died while he was gone while leaving unceremoniously.

This all gives a ton of "I want to look like I would have voted for Cuzz"  While not actually caring one way or another if Cuzz got lynched.

Yuma also commented on Mcmc in 1513.  I think Ashersky has been quite scummy, and would be more than happy if he got lynched but I do not like the way that mcmc threw his vote down.  "Oh I guess I used to have scum reads on him".  It feels like one of the scummier votes I've seen in a while.  I think all this is scummy enough on re-inspection that I am comfortable changing my vote.  Vote: Mcmc

Well for starters I think much of this is inherently wrong. I did not sleep through deadline, deadline was not that night as far as I believed. Second I did not push for the questions to be answered because people had been prompted multiple times. The reason I led when I did was I did not feel me adding my voice to the white noise during the end I D1 was necessary. I said I would hammer when the few questions that were still out there were answered, I then left and came back to check if the questions had been answered before I went to bed at which point I would have hammered. When I came back however these few question may have been answered but as well a wagon was formed o shraeye and there was quite a few extra pages, I posted to let everyone know I didn't just say ill hammer and then leave for the whole day, I said I would hammer and then wasn't sure If I wanted to without reading the extra pages and decifering why a wagon was formed, I did not want to read that much as I needed to go to bed. Then I woke up to cuzz having been hammered.

[mcmcsalot]

So with the way ash is constantly responding I'm much more supportive of a ash lynch then a shraeye lynch. Actually I believe I had a strong scum read on ash early that was lost in the size of D1. Yes with the responses ash has been giving D2 I think i'm comfortable with a Vote: Ashersky

You all realize (well, some of you, I'm sure) that its posts like these that egg me on to stay ridiculous.

yes, mcmc what exactly are you saying here? "the way ash is constantly responding?" what does that mean. But ash, no it isn't a reason to be ridiculous...

I mean all this talk of munch being silly for thinking he's scum and how the mods are laughing at the situation and how wrong everyone is for suspecting him. I don't think those are pro town posts and I think in a game where we have very recently made far to many posts these posts are especially unforgivable.

[Glooble]

Robz, I do hope this new info is something concrete.

The fact is, I'm far from ready to lynch shraeye with the info we have now. It's like, it seems good on paper, but he just reads very town to me. But maybe part of that is that if I admit that his arguments for lynching Cuzz were manipulative, then I'm owning up to how easy I was to manipulate. There were a couple reasons for wanting to lynch Cuzz that I thought didn't hold much water, but I would say most of his argument made perfect sense to me at the time. I'm reasonably certain shraeye thought CUzz was scum. Of course this doesn't preclude shraeye being scum.

Robz is probably my number one townread, so his endorsement of the shraeye lynch definitely holds weight with me. But something still seems off to me. Sorry I can't offer anything more constructive right now.

[Robz888]

Robz, I do hope this new info is something concrete.

The fact is, I'm far from ready to lynch shraeye with the info we have now. It's like, it seems good on paper, but he just reads very town to me. But maybe part of that is that if I admit that his arguments for lynching Cuzz were manipulative, then I'm owning up to how easy I was to manipulate. There were a couple reasons for wanting to lynch Cuzz that I thought didn't hold much water, but I would say most of his argument made perfect sense to me at the time. I'm reasonably certain shraeye thought CUzz was scum. Of course this doesn't preclude shraeye being scum.

Robz is probably my number one townread, so his endorsement of the shraeye lynch definitely holds weight with me. But something still seems off to me. Sorry I can't offer anything more constructive right now.

Shraeye may have thought Cuzz was scum, sure. With multiple teams, it's reasonable to suspect shraeye would vote for the person shraeye thought was scum, even if shraeye was scum.

But shraeye was like, POSITIVE, Cuzz was scum, and did even hesitate at all, even after Cuzz's claim. That's a little too much for me to believe. It makes shraeye's certainty seeming incredulous, and therefore, false.