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[ashersky]

NO, definitely not that.

Robz' original post: "munch-shraeye are scum".
You changed it to: "munch-shraeye killed raerae."  (then argued why this was NOT true).
The argument is, you changed "scum" to "killed raerae".  You've stated you did so through misreading.  Munch has argued you did so by eliminating the "killed Galzria" option.

This is very clear, and makes complete sense.  Munch is arguing (per Theo) that I switched out the bolded parts of those statements, and I did that because I am scum.

More specifically, I am Galz's partner, who did kill raerae, so when I argue that Munch-Shraeye did not kill raerae, it's because I know it for a fact.

I now believe I completely understand the case for my scumslip.

I also think it is ridiculous, and not a scum slip.  I am not scum.

[yuma]

I am here and getting my initial thoughts down and will respond to posts.

On wagon: TheMunch, shraeye, Glooble, liopoil, Robz888, ashersky (6)
Off wagon: mcmcsalot, Jimmmmm, Eevee, yuma, Dsell, theorel (6)

So from my perspective there are 6 potential scum players on wagon and 5 (because I am taking myself out of the mix) off wagon. At least one scum was on wagon in Galz. So assuming--and yes this is just an assumption and not really based on anything--that the combined scum teams split more or less evenly on/off Cuzz wagon there is a greater chance of finding scum off the wagon then on...

But I have a kind of a hard time finding scum there... Jimmmm to an extent, along with mcmc--both were kinda pseudo-on the wagon or at least expressed willingness to be on the wagon. Dsell-no, me-no. theorel is just hard to read, no? Eevee I want to read as town.

As for on the wagon: I would put Glooble and shraeye toward the front, with Robz, themunch and lipoli in the middle. I continue to have a town read on ash.

[yuma]

Just went back to check who voted for who. Yuma is really the only person off-wagon I have much suspicion of.

anything specific you want to say here?

[yuma]

and oh my goodness... it is far too late to be having the sort of conversation you four are having and make any sense out of it. But from what I got out of it I have one question? Why are we using up 4 pages of posts to discuss semantics when there is 40+ (well probably about 20+) pages worth of solid interactions from yesterday, voting history/patterns and associations to look at?

Oh and ash... please don't self vote. You look like you might be trending toward that direction. even if themunch drives you crazy, don't self vote. I have a town read on you  and I do not think that it is pro-town for a townie to self vote. So, if you are town. Don't. If you do I am going to have to assume that you are in fact scum and will vote for you. So don't!

[Jimmmmm]

Okay, here's what I think the ash/Munch argument is:

Statement A: scum <=> killed raerae
Statement B: killed raerae => scum
Statement C: scum => killed raerae

Munch's argument is this: ash declared statement A, ie both B and C. But from a Town point of view, we know statement B (with a very high probability) but not statement C. In fact, statement C is false, since there are scum (either the SK or the other scumteam) who didn't kill raerae (assuming Galz' team did). Statement C is only true if the only scum you are looking for are Galz' team-mates, and the only people doing that are members of the other scum team/SK. This is a valid and logical argument, and I don't see why ash has such a hard time understanding it. I'm not saying the only explanation is that ash is scum, but the argument is sound.

tl;dr ash said killed raerae is equivalent to scum, and while killed raerae implies scum, they are not equivalent except from the point of view of the non-Galz scum team/SK.

[ashersky]

and oh my goodness... it is far too late to be having the sort of conversation you four are having and make any sense out of it. But from what I got out of it I have one question? Why are we using up 4 pages of posts to discuss semantics when there is 40+ (well probably about 20+) pages worth of solid interactions from yesterday, voting history/patterns and associations to look at?

Oh and ash... please don't self vote. You look like you might be trending toward that direction. even if themunch drives you crazy, don't self vote. I have a town read on you  and I do not think that it is pro-town for a townie to self vote. So, if you are town. Don't. If you do I am going to have to assume that you are in fact scum and will vote for you. So don't!

Don't worry yuma, I won't.  If I was going to, I would have long ago.  It is clearly anti-town to self-vote this game.

[Eevee]

I oppose lynching ashersky. I think he is town. I see the scumslip argument, ashersky didnt react well to it, but people say stuff like that all the time. Like theorel said, we arent that careful with our posts, it's a casual game.
Votr: shraeye continues to be my course of action.

Its funny, I feel enough facts point to me being town that i dont feel the usual need to appear towny.

[Jimmmmm]

I agree that it isn't necessarily a scumslip, but I still think it's a valid argument. I'll have to have another read of shraeye in light of what we now know and then look at whether I want to continue pursuing that.

[shraeye]

Oh, I just had a terrible thought last night.

I realized that if a cop had a "town" result, it really is just a "at least not my specific type of baddie" result.  This was probably mentioned before.

Don't out yourself to proclaim anyone town, because they may actually be the badguy that you can't detect.

[shraeye]

The terrible thought being that a cop might say "hey Mr.ThatGuy is town".

[Jimmmmm]

Well yeah. Obviously we're all expecting that our remaining two Cops got non-X results, otherwise they probably would have claimed by now, and no one's expecting a Cop to claim "Hey look I got a non-X result on so-and-so", unless they're about to be lynched. Ideally our Cops will be alive towards the end of the game so they can compare notes.

[shraeye]

That's what I'm thinking.  Although, if I were cop and I had a scum result.  I'd still let day2 brew in its normal way and then reveal much later in the day what my results were.

[Jimmmmm]

Well that's true too. Maybe someone got a scum result, but if so I can't imagine they'd wait terribly much longer to let us know.

[jotheonah]

Quark's funeral arrangements are full of surprises.

Much to his chagrin, Rom does not inherit the bar. Only a few days after the horrific murder, workmen are seen lowering a sign that says "Coming Soon: Morn's Bar"

Meanwhile, Rom visits Major Kira to see about a peculiar bequest.

"No," she says, clearly annoyed. "Odo didn't make any preparations for his death. I'm sure he wouldn't want a Bajoran ceremony, I have no idea what his people do. Why?"

"Well, uh, my brother made very specific provisions that his funeral be at the same time as Odo's."

"What?"

"And that, uh, '...any mourners choosing to attend Odo's service be bribed up to 2 strips of latinum to switch.'"

"Rom. Get out of my office before I make you wish we still had a doctor."

Vote Count 2.1

ashersky (1): The Munch
shraeye (1): Eevee

Not voting: shraeye, ashersky, Glooble, liopoil, Robz888, mcmcsalot, Jimmmmm, yuma, Dsell, theorel

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline is Thursday, January 24th at 7:00 am forum time.

[jotheonah]

Special Thanks to Jorbles for some fun flavor suggestions.

[mcmcsalot]

Okay so I'm caught up, though I reread that whole munch/ash/theo/robz thing about 6 times trying to understand what you all were saying, I didn't make it too the end untill the last time someone should have let me know you all start making sense toward the end. Through this whole thing, I find ash scummy for his defensiveness, he definetly read caught scum for me, I think he realized he over reacted and then switched to the oh I don't care just kill me defense that seems to be working in a lot of games(though I don't get why).

Theorel you are easily me top town read, I know eevee had said there was nothing you had said that you couldn't say as scum, but I believe through this argument you remained consistent(or at least the most consistent) and you made a good case that wasn't tunneled, you left the case open to have everyone discuss, this reads extremely towny to me.

[mcmcsalot]

That's what I'm thinking.  Although, if I were cop and I had a scum result.  I'd still let day2 brew in its normal way and then reveal much later in the day what my results were.

I agree with this, if someone got a scum result you should let the day go on and watch how your scum interactes with people, this could be very good for finding any scum partners.

[Glooble]

I think Munch's scum-slip has some merit. I definitely understand his case, and ashersky's reaction looked really panicky. So Munch has risen in my estimation and ashersky has fallen, but I'm far from convinced.

I don't think Munch's initial argument was complicated enough to warrant the four pages of bickering it generated.

Is there scum among Munch and Shraeye? I have no idea. I think it's highly possible they're both scum, but on separate teams. That would make sense with shraeye getting the ball rolling on the Cuzz wagon, then TheMunch pushing it through at the end. But I think Galz technically started the wagon, so I'm not sure his teammate would have wanted to be on it, at least not as vocally as shraeye. If shraeye was on the non-MU team (Maquis, I guess, since if shraeye was SK I highly, highly doubt he would have risked leading a wagon like that) then I could see Munch pushing Galz's wagon through to lynch, maybe, especially if he had a legitimate scumread on Cuzz. That would have been a risky plan, but if Cuzz had flipped scum it would have made both of them look really good, so Munch might have judged it to be worth the risk.

So in summation, if shraeye is scum, he's likely Maquis (the team that killed Galz.)

Of course we might have MU and a changeling. But if that's the case, I think shraeye is likely town. I just don't see an SK putting himself out there like that day one.

[Jimmmmm]

A thought I just had: is it worth remembering that scum have less scum targets? So, from scum's point of view, Cuzz was less likely to be scum than he was from Town point of view? Does this mean scum would be less likely to push hard for a particular lynch, because they're less likely to get Town cred from hitting scum?

[Dsell]

But no, I did not mean to imply that one of you killed raerae. I find it far, far more likely that if one of your are scum, you are of the opposite team as Galz, for precisely the reason that raerae's death reflects poorly on all of you.

(He's talking to Shraeye about Shraeye and TheMunch)

I'm catching up with this game, and even though this will be totally irrelevant now, I really, really agree with this. I am wary when I super agree with Robz because he is very good as scum, but I get a strong town read from this (and other posts of his) because it is just so identical with my thinking. I think Munch is the more likely scum candidate because several posts of his on day 1 really rubbed me wrong (but didn't bother others so much). Or Shraeye might easily be scum. He is good. But I haven't (yet) gotten such a scummy read on him.

[yuma]

so... galz was scum right....? I am thinking doing a reread on him might clue us into potential scum partners. Now, I have been scum with galz before (ZM1)--and I think that others who have been scum with galz should add their own bit as well--but one thing I remember about him, and I think I shared this in another game, was that Galz is fully ready and willing to buss as mafia. He said to me in the quicktopic that we shared that he is unlikely to chainsaw or defend a scummate. I don't know if he would be willing to start cases on players, but he might...

So what I am looking for are people that came under a bit of heat and to which, Galz did not defend, but instead added to the flames.

 - From this I doubt that Eevee is Galz's partner. He was pretty adamant in his defense all game long. Like really, really adamant.

 - He has an interesting post about lurkers...  January 09, 2013, 1:54:03 am. Here he basically says that outside of lio--who he has no basis of comparison for--everyone is posting about the same that he would expect. Now, since we know Galz was scum my bet is that he would have potentially turned on a partner and brought heat against them if that player was lurking. So I am leaning toward thinking that the lurkers at that point, theo, themunch, glooble, dsell aren't his partners.

 - his big post is also a bit telling January 10, 2013, 10:08:34 am. here he analyzes cuzz, jimmm, shraeye and mcmc. He has a townie read on mcmc, slight town read, but could lynch read on shraeye, slight scum read off Jimmmm, and voted Cuzz.

 - He does however, later express a willingness to lynch Glooble, but doesn't change his vote.

 - From this list provided by Cuzz (Here's something to chat about. My wagon is Galz, Munch, shraeye, Glooble, liopoil, raerae and ash.), galz says he only has a town read of raerae...

 - and his last post is an FOS at the people that were on the shraeye wagon and me for starting it.

so in summary:

1. ashersky - scum read from the shraeye wagon FOS and the Cuzz wagon
2. Robz - really not mentioned at all, reads wise, but has a constant conversation with him, but was on the shraeye wagon FOS
3. yuma - only read me via the shraeye wagon FOS at the end.
4. Eevee - strong town read all game, but was on the shraeye wagon FOS
5. Shraeye - slight town read, but could lynch
7. Glooble - doesn't think scummy for lurking, but would be willing to lynch
9. liopoil - scummy because on the cuzz wagon
10. mcmcsalot   - town read
11. Jimmmmm - slight scum read and was on the shraeye wagon FOS
12. theorel - not much of anything about theorel, not scummy because of lurking
13. TheMunch - scummy because on the Cuzz wagon
14. Dsell - not much about Dsell, but not scummy because of lurking.

So if I had only this to go off, I would be most interested in voting Jimmm or Glooble or possibly shraeye. From this alone I wouldn't lynch Eevee, Dsell, mcmc or theorel. But thankfully, this isn't all I have to go off.

[shraeye]

Is there scum among Munch and Shraeye? I have no idea. I think it's highly possible they're both scum, but on separate teams. That would make sense with shraeye getting the ball rolling on the Cuzz wagon, then TheMunch pushing it through at the end.

But I think Galz technically started the wagon, so I'm not sure his teammate would have wanted to be on it, at least not as vocally as shraeye. If shraeye was on the non-MU team (Maquis, I guess, since if shraeye was SK I highly, highly doubt he would have risked leading a wagon like that) then I could see Munch pushing Galz's wagon through to lynch, maybe, especially if he had a legitimate scumread on Cuzz. That would have been a risky plan, but if Cuzz had flipped scum it would have made both of them look really good, so Munch might have judged it to be worth the risk.

So in summation, if shraeye is scum, he's likely Maquis (the team that killed Galz.)

Of course we might have MU and a changeling. But if that's the case, I think shraeye is likely town. I just don't see an SK putting himself out there like that day one.

What do you feel about Munch?  Could he be on Galz's team? Could he be on another team? or SK?

Also, could you say more about how you think it's highly possible I'm scum?  I seem to recall you having a strong townread on my during day 1.  I just don't see completely where the new outlook came from.

[Glooble]

You're not one of my strongest scumreads shraeye. I was just commenting on you and the munch because someone was asking what everyone thought about you two. If the munch is scum, I think he could be either type of scum. The way he pushed the lynch would have been risky if he galz's teammate, but its a risk I could see him going for.

Putting aside the wagons I'd say I have slight town reads on both of you. All jaws trying to say was that I didn't agree that one or the other of you had to be town. Given that we have 2 teams, I could see that, or neither of you being scum, or both.

[ashersky]

A thought I just had: is it worth remembering that scum have less scum targets? So, from scum's point of view, Cuzz was less likely to be scum than he was from Town point of view? Does this mean scum would be less likely to push hard for a particular lynch, because they're less likely to get Town cred from hitting scum?

The first part of this confuses me.  I think you mean, assuming X number of scum in the game, while town can scum hunt for X players, scum can only scum hunt for X-their own scum team, so they actually have a harder time numbers-wise to catch scum.  It's is true that they have less scum to hunt for, but they are hunting from a smaller pool, since they can discount partners, so it probably doesn't affect them as much as you think.

As for not pushing hard on a lynch because they won't get as much town cred, wouldn't that apply the same for town players?  I don't think it's a factor--I think scum wants to lynch the other team just as much as town, and won't dial it back because they won't get enough pats on the back.

[ashersky]

@yuma on Galz as scum:  I think if he made lists of scumminess/towniness, etc., his partner(s) are there.  I do think he'd bus, no question.  I actually think he was self-conscious of the lurking as scum thing, which is why he talked about it so much.  I think it's possible his partner(s) lurked, so Galz made the "no one is lurking by their own standards" statement so often.  I'd guess the lower posters, Glooble maybe, could be where we need to look for the other MU scum.