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[theorel]

Interesting.
Both raerae and Galzria were on the Cuzz lynch.
I'll need to reread each of them.  Before rereading:
I'm slightly more suspicious of Jimmmmm given raerae's case on him.
Still somewhat suspicious of shraeye for yesterday's shenanigans re: Cuzz-lynch.  Also Galzria's reaction to his sudden-wagon given Galzria's alignment.
Slight increase in Ashersky suspicions for pushing case on now-known town.

[ashersky]

Remaining cops stay silent unless they have a scum result, I think.

[ashersky]

Interesting.
Both raerae and Galzria were on the Cuzz lynch.
I'll need to reread each of them.  Before rereading:
I'm slightly more suspicious of Jimmmmm given raerae's case on him.
Still somewhat suspicious of shraeye for yesterday's shenanigans re: Cuzz-lynch.  Also Galzria's reaction to his sudden-wagon given Galzria's alignment.
Slight increase in Ashersky suspicions for pushing case on now-known town.

On Galz being on the wagon, do we think his partner(s) were off wagon, or joined?

I thought raerae was scum until I learned her alignment, honestly.

Long re-reads needed, clearly.  Whomever raerae and Galz suspected will rise to the top.

[theorel]

Interesting.
Both raerae and Galzria were on the Cuzz lynch.
I'll need to reread each of them.  Before rereading:
I'm slightly more suspicious of Jimmmmm given raerae's case on him.
Still somewhat suspicious of shraeye for yesterday's shenanigans re: Cuzz-lynch.  Also Galzria's reaction to his sudden-wagon given Galzria's alignment.
Slight increase in Ashersky suspicions for pushing case on now-known town.

On Galz being on the wagon, do we think his partner(s) were off wagon, or joined?

I thought raerae was scum until I learned her alignment, honestly.

Long re-reads needed, clearly.  Whomever raerae and Galz suspected will rise to the top.

Galz and raerae being on wagon means that both scum-teams knowingly dwindled the number of players on-wagon.  This increases the chance that they were off-wagon given that typically scum would want to reduce the pool of players that doesn't include them, rather than the pool of players that does.  Absent night-kill info, I would say scum is slightly more likely to be on-wagon.

Galz being on-wagon and scum means very little to me in multi-ball.  Scum want to split up on townie lynches, but they all want to lynch scum.  Take MVI for example when all-but-two scum (out of 6) were on the Eevee-wagon.  Scum killed one player on the Eevee-wagon (joth) but he was essentially confirmed-town, so that barely counts.

I believe you thought raerae was scum (regardless of your alignment).  However, all things being equal, a scum player is more likely to end up targeting town for their suspicions (since they won't target themselves or any partners).

[ashersky]

I believe you thought raerae was scum (regardless of your alignment).  However, all things being equal, a scum player is more likely to end up targeting town for their suspicions (since they won't target themselves or any partners).

Given the setup, you are right that scum is more likely to mislynch a townie in their search for the other scum team, unless we're looking at an SK.  Then they are at the same likelihood as a townie to mislynch, given they have no other info.

Assume a team of two looking for two scum in thirteen players vice a townie looking for four scum in fourteen.  The percentage change is small, but there.  The problem with figuring this out is not knowing if it is 3, 4, or 5 scum in this game.  (I am assuming no more than 5 -- 6 in 15 sounds too high.)

I guess this isn't really responding to you, but I am seeing your point.

[mcmcsalot]

Theorel you may have mean this and I jus didn't understand, you said scum would want to spli up on town lynches but wanna all be on town lynches, but in multi ball scum has no idea if a lynch is on town or on scum so this doesn't really tell us much.

Side note, why do we think these two people were killed, galz makes sense to me seeing as he's usually a very helpfull townie,(did anyone have suspicions of galz?) but raerae nk confuses me, I thought she was towny but it seems a lot of people felt she was scum, why would scum want to kill her, she's an easy mislynch to force.

[ashersky]

Theorel you may have mean this and I jus didn't understand, you said scum would want to spli up on town lynches but wanna all be on town lynches, but in multi ball scum has no idea if a lynch is on town or on scum so this doesn't really tell us much.

Side note, why do we think these two people were killed, galz makes sense to me seeing as he's usually a very helpfull townie,(did anyone have suspicions of galz?) but raerae nk confuses me, I thought she was towny but it seems a lot of people felt she was scum, why would scum want to kill her, she's an easy mislynch to force.

On raerae, I think actually I was the only real pusher of her case.  I guess scum could have killed her to cast suspicion on me.  To that I would say why would I, as scum, push a case so hard publicly just to NK her that night?

[mcmcsalot]

But I don't think casting suspicion on you is a viable reason to nk her. I guess if anything there's a bit of wifom you could have nk'd her to cast suspicion on yourself just to make this argument and gain town cred. Your opening post of this day read very towny to me so I don't actuall believe my above statement, it is however a possibility.

[Eevee]

*gloating about being right about Cuzz*

[Jimmmmm]

I think two possible scum motives are "Who's on the other scum team?" and "Who's not going to be doctored if there are x-shot doctors?" Neither of them would have looked likely to be doctored. Another good reason to kill Galz would be "Well if he's Town he's likely to find us out."
With raerae, two possibilities jumped out at me, as ash has noted: 1) it was by an ash scum-team led by ash who thought raerae was on the other team, or 2) someone wanted us to think it was by an ash scum-team. 1) seems unlikely, and 2) also seems unlikely (although less so) because we're probably not going to fall for 1). However, ash jumping in with "It can't possibly have been me!" introduces 3) it was by an ash scum-team so that ash can say "It can't possibly have been me!" to try to reduce suspicion on him.
Also, I don't know if this will be helpful, but it seems most likely that Galz had a hand in raerae's death.

[Glooble]

I wonder if the maquis/ shapeshifter thought they were killing town or the other team when they targeted Galz? Did anyone express much of a scumread on him yesterday? I think that's an avenue worth pursuing.

Eevee - scumGalz was defending you pretty hard. This could be scumGalz defending a team-mate or scumGalz buddying up to a towny, though. People who are more familiar with Galz's meta might be able to glean some useful information about Eevee from this.

[Glooble]

Theorel you may have mean this and I jus didn't understand, you said scum would want to spli up on town lynches but wanna all be on town lynches, but in multi ball scum has no idea if a lynch is on town or on scum so this doesn't really tell us much.

Side note, why do we think these two people were killed, galz makes sense to me seeing as he's usually a very helpfull townie,(did anyone have suspicions of galz?) but raerae nk confuses me, I thought she was towny but it seems a lot of people felt she was scum, why would scum want to kill her, she's an easy mislynch to force.

In multiball, its often better for scum to target the other scum team, since it reduces their likelyhood of being nk'd (especially in this set-up, where if we have a vig, she's likely one-shot [gender pronoun based purely on my own speculation about what flavor my brother would choose for the vig.])

[TheMunch]

Dont have time to long post right now but I want to have a chat about Ashersky and mcmc.  They are two people that really stood out from me from yesterday (and I want to reread to make sure I'm remembering things correctly so if I say anything thats not correct please correct me).

Ashersky:  I really didn't like how he was moving about his vote at the end of the day yesterday.  It gave me an impression of "I want to maintain my reads but I want to kill who we can kill."

Mcmc: This is one I think I am missing details cause I definitely wasn't giving it 100% after page 40, but didn't mcmc say that he was going to hammer cuzz then never ended up on the lynch?

[Eevee]

Mhm, I don't have good grasp of what's going on and our day 1 was quite a beast to re-read. I spent the last 10-20 pages vehemently defending Cuzz, didn't succeed. I'm quite conflicted what to do now.

[Robz888]

Whoever killed Galzria was probably just taking out what they thought was a fearsome townie. I had some suspicions about Galzria--I guess he does lurk as scum!--but very few people seemed to share them. Well, I mean, I didn't push for him at all, so enver mind that. I think a lot of us picked up on there being something offa bout him, but there were other explanations, like him just being mafia fatigued.

The raerae kill.. whoever did that probably hoped they were shooting scum. I'd say she was looking scummier after Cuzz's flip.

[Glooble]

We also need to look at shraeye and yuma. On the one hand, Shraeye tunneled hard on Cuzz, had everyone (including me) buying his arguments, but on the other hand, would a scum player really ever tunnel that hard on anyone? It seems dangerous.

I still read townie on Shraeye.

Yuma's fast wagon on Shraeye also needs to be examined, but I have no idea what to make of it. On the surface it seems very townie, but... I don't know, it bothers me. That might just be residual suspicion of yuma, though, from when he was on my wagon.

[Jimmmmm]

Interesting that the raerae kill could easily have been intended to incriminate ash or to reduce suspicion of him, depending on which wine you think is poisoned. Or it could have had nothing to do with him whatsoever.

[Jimmmmm]

but on the other hand, would a scum player really ever tunnel that hard on anyone? It seems dangerous.

I still read townie on Shraeye.

I think scum shraeye would do that if that's what he thought Town shraeye would do.

[Glooble]

Whoever killed Galzria was probably just taking out what they thought was a fearsome townie.

That is a good point. I know in previous games as scum I've always had cross-hairs on Robz and Galz simply because I was scared I wouldn't be able to fool them for long.

[theorel]

Theorel you may have mean this and I jus didn't understand, you said scum would want to spli up on town lynches but wanna all be on town lynches, but in multi ball scum has no idea if a lynch is on town or on scum so this doesn't really tell us much.

Yeah, that's what I meant by this: "Galz being on-wagon and scum means very little to me in multi-ball".  Sorry if I was unclear.  I stated the conclusion before the reasoning, and then provided an example to argue against the "scum would split up on this town wagon" idea, which would be typical play for scum in non-multi-ball.

HOWEVER, given that both kills were on wagon, I think it suggests that scum is slightly less likely to be on-wagon.

However, however, as noted by Jimmmm/Glooble scum in multi-ball for some reason likes to try to shoot the other team (fear of being NKed, I guess...).  They might have targeted the non-them on-wagon figuring it was a good place to gun for scum.  (I will note that M-VI showed how stupid of a strategy this is...which makes me conflicted, because 1 of 2 things happened: 1. scum is pursuing a bad strategy, and thus is benefiting town, which I want them to keep doing, OR 2. scum is not pursuing a bad strategy in which case we should assume they weren't gunning for the other team, and thus that we benefit from analyzing these for typical kill-reasons: i.e. WIFOM, PR-hunting, kill-the-persecutor, or eliminate strong town.)

Galzria makes sense in either case: he was scummy enough that I could see targeting him trying to hit other team, or trying to hit PR.  He's known as a strong enough town player, that they could have hit him for being strong town.

raerae makes almost no sense in either case, unless it had to do with Jimmmmm/ashersky, or possibly shraeye/munch (if they were worried about her reading them better, but I doubt that reason personally as she had something approaching town-reads on them, and I think it's a generally bad reason.  I mention it only for completeness).

However, (assuming raerae is the Mirror-Universe kill, which is a pretty safe assumption I think) whoever killed raerae must be partners with Galzria (or at least participated in discussion with Galzria about whether to kill her).  Jimmmmm mentioned this already.  I think in particular if raerae was killed for persecuting Jimmmmm for instance, then it behooves us to check Galzria for Galz-Jimmmmm interactions (I can't think of any off the top of my head, I can think of shraeye and Robz interacting with Jimmmmm but not Galz).

I guess I'll try to do that when I get a chance.

[Jimmmmm]

Well the obvious me/Galz interaction is when I said I wouldn't lynch him yesterday.

[Jimmmmm]

And Galz at one point said I was Towny if I recall correctly, but later had me on his list of lynch possibilities.

[mcmcsalot]

Dont have time to long post right now but I want to have a chat about Ashersky and mcmc.  They are two people that really stood out from me from yesterday (and I want to reread to make sure I'm remembering things correctly so if I say anything thats not correct please correct me).

Ashersky:  I really didn't like how he was moving about his vote at the end of the day yesterday.  It gave me an impression of "I want to maintain my reads but I want to kill who we can kill."

Mcmc: This is one I think I am missing details cause I definitely wasn't giving it 100% after page 40, but didn't mcmc say that he was going to hammer cuzz then never ended up on the lynch?

I expressed intent to hammer on page 43 with the stipulation that everyone answer the question cuzz posed,

Vote Count 1.15

Cuzz (7): Galzria, TheMunch, shraeye, Glooble, liopoil, raerae, ashersky {L-1}
Jimmmmm (1): mcmcsalot
Glooble (1): yuma
raerae (1): Eevee

Here's something to chat about. My wagon is Galz, Munch, shraeye, Glooble, liopoil, raerae and ash.

I'd like as many people as possible to say whether they have a strong townread on anyone in that collection (besides themselves), and why.

I was waiting for everyones answer, at the time raerae also pointed out cuzz had not yet explained his town read on jimm. As cuzz was the only lynch I expected, I felt the answer to these question would be very helpfull post flip. I then left, assuming the question would be answered in the time I was gone, I would come back and hammer once reading these answers and making sure it was the lynch we still wanted. When I got back on, 9 pages had been written and somewhere in there shraeye almost got lynched, there was noway I was hammering without reading those pages and I didn't have the time to read them then. When I woke up cuzz had been hammered.

[mcmcsalot]

Theorel you may have mean this and I jus didn't understand, you said scum would want to spli up on town lynches but wanna all be on town lynches, but in multi ball scum has no idea if a lynch is on town or on scum so this doesn't really tell us much.

Yeah, that's what I meant by this: "Galz being on-wagon and scum means very little to me in multi-ball".  Sorry if I was unclear.  I stated the conclusion before the reasoning, and then provided an example to argue against the "scum would split up on this town wagon" idea, which would be typical play for scum in non-multi-ball.

HOWEVER, given that both kills were on wagon, I think it suggests that scum is slightly less likely to be on-wagon.

However, however, as noted by Jimmmm/Glooble scum in multi-ball for some reason likes to try to shoot the other team (fear of being NKed, I guess...).  They might have targeted the non-them on-wagon figuring it was a good place to gun for scum.  (I will note that M-VI showed how stupid of a strategy this is...which makes me conflicted, because 1 of 2 things happened: 1. scum is pursuing a bad strategy, and thus is benefiting town, which I want them to keep doing, OR 2. scum is not pursuing a bad strategy in which case we should assume they weren't gunning for the other team, and thus that we benefit from analyzing these for typical kill-reasons: i.e. WIFOM, PR-hunting, kill-the-persecutor, or eliminate strong town.)

Galzria makes sense in either case: he was scummy enough that I could see targeting him trying to hit other team, or trying to hit PR.  He's known as a strong enough town player, that they could have hit him for being strong town.

raerae makes almost no sense in either case, unless it had to do with Jimmmmm/ashersky, or possibly shraeye/munch (if they were worried about her reading them better, but I doubt that reason personally as she had something approaching town-reads on them, and I think it's a generally bad reason.  I mention it only for completeness).

However, (assuming raerae is the Mirror-Universe kill, which is a pretty safe assumption I think) whoever killed raerae must be partners with Galzria (or at least participated in discussion with Galzria about whether to kill her).  Jimmmmm mentioned this already.  I think in particular if raerae was killed for persecuting Jimmmmm for instance, then it behooves us to check Galzria for Galz-Jimmmmm interactions (I can't think of any off the top of my head, I can think of shraeye and Robz interacting with Jimmmmm but not Galz).

I guess I'll try to do that when I get a chance.

Thanks for clearing up the first bit, now for the second part are you saying that since it was galz teammates that killed raerae, and raerae pushed jimm, jimm is a potential scummate with galz. I can see this, I had suspicions of jimm for along time, though everything from yesterday is muddled and I remember I tunneled had on him and i think my case wasn't very good.

[mcmcsalot]

ooh so much wifom in Jimm's posts. He points out that galz and jimm buddied untill jimm had some pressure on him and then galz distanced, this is a scummy thing to do. With jimm imediatly saying it I can't tell if that has town motives, "heres the interaction ill point it out because i'm town" or scum motives, "heres the interaction I hope I get town cred for bringing it up"