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[faust]

In your next post, please everyone who hasn't done so already state who of (pps, scotty, me) you think is most likely scum.

I really don't know, sorry. I really would have said it's not you, it's either PPS or scotty. Now I'm getting a bad feeling.

But again, if just 1 of PPS, scotty, and faust is scum, why are we looking here? When there wold have to be 2 scum among TA, Arch, Ahoppy, or Scotty? (And we can sort of omit TA).

I feel like everyone--unwittingly, purposefully?--is covering for the lurkers. And some of that mafia covering for lazy partners.

Because 1) it is entirely possible that both scotty and PPS are scum.

2) for me, it's either scotty or PPS that's scum (possibly even both), so that's a >50% chance of scum there.

And 3) I'm looking at two possible scum players here: pps and TA. If pps is scum, and I think he is, then likely TA is as well. In this case, looking at AHoppy, Archetype and you, there's only one scum among you. The better chances are with us.

Ultimately 4) lurkers are harder to catch. I feel that both PPS and I had lots of contributions, so forming a read on us shouldn't be too hard. With Arch/AHoppy/scotty, we just don't have that much to form reads on. But once one scum player has flipped, we might get the lurkers via interactions.

[Twistedarcher]

Something that I'm considering: If PPS is town, which I am increasingly thinking due to Faust's actions, then scum really did not utilize their potential fakeclaiming potential. There's today to try to trap PPS, but other than that, there were no fakeclaims before D4, which I would have expected. (To be fair, they may have been coming D3 before it was cut short). I think it's more likely a lurker filled, or lurker majority team that would have no fakeclaims early.

If Robz is town, I think the most likely team is Faust/Scott/Arch. This also makes sense with Faust not wanting to lynch in Scott/ARch/Ahoppy, since 2/3 would be his partner. If Robz is scum, Faust/Robz/X, I'm not sure who the most likely third would be.

Faust, I am still voting you because you are scum, why are you worried about getting quickhammered when it's clearly not going to happen? I am not waiting 10 more days or however long these deadlines are to vote. I do not want this to go to deadline again, absolutely not.

[Twistedarcher]

If PPS is scum, that means that Faust is town almost certainly. I don't know who makes sense as PPS' partners, probably Robz, and one of the lurkers, I'm not not sure which.

Today's actions pretty clearly mean to me they can't be scum together -- added in with Faust's push D2 post-claim, I am pretty confident they are not both scum. I also doubt they're both town, but if they are both town, that would be Scott + 2 of Arch/Ahoppy/Robz.

I got a towny read from Arch's doc claim but I am just not sure about this. I am only sure on Faust almost certainly being scum.

[faust]

Faust, I am still voting you because you are scum, why are you worried about getting quickhammered when it's clearly not going to happen? I am not waiting 10 more days or however long these deadlines are to vote. I do not want this to go to deadline again, absolutely not.

How can you possibly be so sure?

You're clearly going to the extreme here, something I have already witnessed as your scum partner in M31.

[faust]

Prod requested on Archetype

[Twistedarcher]

Faust, I am still voting you because you are scum, why are you worried about getting quickhammered when it's clearly not going to happen? I am not waiting 10 more days or however long these deadlines are to vote. I do not want this to go to deadline again, absolutely not.

How can you possibly be so sure?

You're clearly going to the extreme here, something I have already witnessed as your scum partner in M31.

Where did I exhibit this behavior in M31? Are you saying that me being confident in my reads and pushing them hard is an exclusively scum behavior for me?

[sudgy]

Prod requested on Archetype

Prod sent.

[faust]

Where did I exhibit this behavior in M31? Are you saying that me being confident in my reads and pushing them hard is an exclusively scum behavior for me?

I thought you aid so yourself somewhere in the mafia QT, though I can't find it right now. And I'm not sure how confident you are in your reads as town, I think the only game I played with you where you were town was NMIV, and there we lynched you D1, so no time for big reads.

[Robz888]

I'm used to TA as a premiere townie with very good reads and a high level of participation and leadership.

That's not what I'm getting this game, but I don't feel like he's super similar to his Modern Community self, either.

[Archetype]

Here. Don't want to be modkilled and cost us the game!

We have 10 days- I'll update Super Mario Mafia then check back here.

[faust]

This was still missing, so I'm going to finish my pps reread. These are D3 and D4:

- says that the only people he wouldn't lynch are himself and TA
- then has scott and me as is top scum reads, while earlier stating that some of my actions seem townie
- he doesn't have a strong case on me
- defends Jimmmmm, who dies the following night
- after a reread, he has me a light town read and suspects the lurker trio Arch/AHoppy/scotty
- votes AHoppy without making a case on him, stating this is "mostly PoE"

D4

- states that he is more confident in his reads because Jimmmmm died, and that his read have been "spot on" this game
...nothing more really, then there's already me and scott claiming.

[faust]

Here. Don't want to be modkilled and cost us the game!

This seems kind of fake to me.

[faust]

The complete case on pingpongsam.

1) The claim.
He drops hints that are impossible to overlook D1 that he is a Cop and wants to target TA. He survives N1. Then for a long time, he does not claim anything, and a wagon builds on him, which is the only wagon on that Day so far. I point out that I'm assuming no Cop claims that Day, because it is already late in the Day. Following that, PPS claims. The reason he gives is that he wanted to give credence to TA and people to discuss his scum read on Eevee. Also he saw what I said and thought he should claim. This seems just a strange reason to claim. If you're a town Cop, claim when it seems best to you, not when other townies think you should claim. It feels like he was willing to wait until L-1, but then got scared that if he did, we wouldn't believe him anymore. And the whole TA thing - I think if you're holding back your investigation results, it is to hear other player's reads on your target first. But PPS never enforced that. Lastly, when it is pointed out that he shouldn't have breadcrumbed, he says he was just being "sincere" and then realized this was bad. Well, I expect better play from town!PPS.

2) The "good" voting pattern
I stated D3 that it is notable that PPS has yet to vote for a confirmed townie, stating this makes him more likely town. PPS follows this by giving me a town read and sheeping my scum reads on AHoppy and Archetype. He also states a conviction that Jimmmm is town. Guess what? Jimmmmm dies the following night, and PPS comments this by stating "well, my reads are spot on" and voting AHoppy at MyLo. Not concerned that scum is just messing with you, trying to exploit your thinking that you have good reads?

3) Town reads on players who have town reads on him
This is only a minor point, but at least twice in the game, he has given town reads to players shortly after they stated that they think he is town. This happened with yuma D2 and with me D3. Looks like buddying.

4) Does not give good reasons for his vote
He is after AHoppy since D2, but never really laid out what makes him think that he is scum. On D2, he reasoned with the wagon on AHoppy. On D3, he said it was a PoE thing. On D4, he states that he is confident enough in his reads to vote AHoppy.

5) Jimmmmm's death
The mafia played pretty straightforward with their night kills, I think. N1, they killed Voltaire, N2, they killed yuma. Both players with traditionally good reads who were pushing the game along. The main forces pushing the game along D3 were Robz, PPS and me, I think. Why kill Jimmmmm? They must have thought this is in some way of benefit to them. And who used Jimmmmm's flip to support his argument? Right...

6) The scumminess of TA
This probably deserves a post on his own. TA is in my eyes not acting like the quasi-IC he claims to be. As IC, you know your reads are probably worse than those of everyone else, so you listen to other players, ask questions, and try to push the game along, only throwing in your opinion when needed. This is not what I saw TA do. Instead, he fervently pushes a case on me - a townie and claimed Cop - even going so far as leaving me to be quickhammered by scum. And if TA is scum, obviously, so has to be PPS.

7) Cop distribution and scotty's townieness
The obvious thing last. There has to be a liar among the claimed Cops. It's not me. scotty I see as a townie player, and if you don't - he's still a newbie. Do you think he would pull this kind of genius fakeclaim just like that? I don't. So by PoE, PPS has to be the scum.

[pingpongsam]

The complete case on pingpongsam.

1) The claim.
He drops hints that are impossible to overlook D1 that he is a Cop and wants to target TA. He survives N1. Then for a long time, he does not claim anything, and a wagon builds on him, which is the only wagon on that Day so far. I point out that I'm assuming no Cop claims that Day, because it is already late in the Day. Following that, PPS claims. The reason he gives is that he wanted to give credence to TA and people to discuss his scum read on Eevee. Also he saw what I said and thought he should claim. This seems just a strange reason to claim. If you're a town Cop, claim when it seems best to you, not when other townies think you should claim. It feels like he was willing to wait until L-1, but then got scared that if he did, we wouldn't believe him anymore. And the whole TA thing - I think if you're holding back your investigation results, it is to hear other player's reads on your target first. But PPS never enforced that. Lastly, when it is pointed out that he shouldn't have breadcrumbed, he says he was just being "sincere" and then realized this was bad. Well, I expect better play from town!PPS.

2) The "good" voting pattern
I stated D3 that it is notable that PPS has yet to vote for a confirmed townie, stating this makes him more likely town. PPS follows this by giving me a town read and sheeping my scum reads on AHoppy and Archetype. He also states a conviction that Jimmmm is town. Guess what? Jimmmmm dies the following night, and PPS comments this by stating "well, my reads are spot on" and voting AHoppy at MyLo. Not concerned that scum is just messing with you, trying to exploit your thinking that you have good reads?

3) Town reads on players who have town reads on him
This is only a minor point, but at least twice in the game, he has given town reads to players shortly after they stated that they think he is town. This happened with yuma D2 and with me D3. Looks like buddying.

4) Does not give good reasons for his vote
He is after AHoppy since D2, but never really laid out what makes him think that he is scum. On D2, he reasoned with the wagon on AHoppy. On D3, he said it was a PoE thing. On D4, he states that he is confident enough in his reads to vote AHoppy.

5) Jimmmmm's death
The mafia played pretty straightforward with their night kills, I think. N1, they killed Voltaire, N2, they killed yuma. Both players with traditionally good reads who were pushing the game along. The main forces pushing the game along D3 were Robz, PPS and me, I think. Why kill Jimmmmm? They must have thought this is in some way of benefit to them. And who used Jimmmmm's flip to support his argument? Right...

6) The scumminess of TA
This probably deserves a post on his own. TA is in my eyes not acting like the quasi-IC he claims to be. As IC, you know your reads are probably worse than those of everyone else, so you listen to other players, ask questions, and try to push the game along, only throwing in your opinion when needed. This is not what I saw TA do. Instead, he fervently pushes a case on me - a townie and claimed Cop - even going so far as leaving me to be quickhammered by scum. And if TA is scum, obviously, so has to be PPS.

7) Cop distribution and scotty's townieness
The obvious thing last. There has to be a liar among the claimed Cops. It's not me. scotty I see as a townie player, and if you don't - he's still a newbie. Do you think he would pull this kind of genius fakeclaim just like that? I don't. So by PoE, PPS has to be the scum.

1) Not claiming while a wagon built on me D2 was an effort to see who was going to try to lynch me before the claim leaked. The more votes the better. What kind of idiocy is it to expect to not be believed when I flipped? I had every expectation that I would get lynched post-claim. I believe the only reason I was not lynched or NK'd is because scum wanted to retain the ambiguity of that situation so they could leverage later in the game for an easy MYLO lynch just like right now. You say that a hold out on results should be to get the reads against my target but there was no attention being paid to TA even has he tried to get anyone at all to look at his admittedly shitty case on Eevee. I felt there was sufficient votes having had been placed on me to get a look at who was willing to kill a Townie that my flip would be beneficial.

2) The Jimmmmm NK was a forced flip to paint me for the easy lynch today. I read him as likely Town because the only interaction that I found scummy was his D1 interplay with TA who I later confirmed Town. His grilling of me D2 pushed my general buttons related to thinking scum pushes cases on me but I tempered it with the fact that I know Jimmmmm to be just as relentless when Town and my TA results allowed me to see him as a likely Town operative.

3) Yeah, minor point it is. We are obviously not buddying. Yuma made some extremely cogent points about my play being consistent with zero support from me. I'm not entirely sure where I stated town reads on him. IIRC, I maintained that out of the Robz/yuma tiff I would have selected Robz more likely to be scum not that yuma was somehow obtvtown. In fact, I would say throughout this game, with the exception of maybe Jimmmmm, I've not espoused any strong Town reads on anyone but have consistently juxtaposed my strong scum reads against those who I had no scum case on which is much unlike espousing a Town read on anyone.

4) D1 AHoppy began as a the better lynch thing and coalesced into wow this looks like maybe scum narrowly dodged a lynch. If you disagree, fine, but your disagreement does not equate to bad analysis. That the AHoppy thing has gotten zero traction all the way to D4 is a PoE thing. Everyone has cast some suspicion on him but at no point has he approached the D1 crescendo, why is that?

5) See #2. Who is leveraging the Jimmmmm flip for the PPS lynch today, right, intent to vote faust, there's your buddying argument shot to hell for you.

6) If you have a case on TA why are you pushing the PPS thing? Because the likelihood of scum!pps having fakeclaimed on a Townie is statistically higher than scum!pps fakeclaiming on a partner. You are 100% correct that if TA is scum so must be PPS. However, the inverse doesn't necessarily hold true. This is exactly why I was spared post-claim D2 and have not been NK'd and why the sudden interest in PSS in MYLO.

7. There must be at least 1 liar, why not 2? Scumpair of faust/scotty with faust coaching scotty perfectly explains the "genius" angle and the positioning of both of them against me today with the continued pressures they have both maintained on me throughout the game.

[faust]

Responing to pps:

1) Obviously, I meant you were afraid of being lynched, not of not being believed after your lynch. Yes, there was no attention being paid to TA, you could have changed that! But you didn't. The last point I don't understand. You seem to imply that your claim there has somehow made you obvtown, so we can see who's voting for the townie. Well, here's news for you - you're not obvtown. So that reasoning doesn't work.

2) How does Jimmmmm's flip help painting you scummy? It would seem to me that keeping him alive would have helped more, considering how he had a scumread on you.

3) The strong town read on yuma that you apparently have forgotten is here. I think scum is more likely to forget about their (fake) reads than town is.

4) I don't feel like the AHoppy thing got zero attention. Only D2 was your claim that kept us busy and D3 was chairs' unfortunate out before the real discussion started.

5) Haha, that's funny.

6) I don't understand anything you are saying here. How is the chance that scum!you fakeclaims on a townie "statistically higher" than the chance that scum!you fakeclaims on a partner? Also, what's the question with TA? If I have a case on TA, of course I'm pushing your lynch, because there's no scenario where he is scum and you aren't.

7) If that's what you believe, answer my question here.

Okay, I think I've heard enough. It is certain that one of scotty/pps is scum. I have a quite strong town read on scotty, and a quite strong scum read on pps. Time to vote: pingpongsam.

[faust]

Actually, pps forgetting about his yuma town read is another huge scum indicator for me. I don't think I will change my vote today.

[pingpongsam]

Responing to pps:

1) Obviously, I meant you were afraid of being lynched, not of not being believed after your lynch. Yes, there was no attention being paid to TA, you could have changed that! But you didn't. The last point I don't understand. You seem to imply that your claim there has somehow made you obvtown, so we can see who's voting for the townie. Well, here's news for you - you're not obvtown. So that reasoning doesn't work.

2) How does Jimmmmm's flip help painting you scummy? It would seem to me that keeping him alive would have helped more, considering how he had a scumread on you.

3) The strong town read on yuma that you apparently have forgotten is here. I think scum is more likely to forget about their (fake) reads than town is.

4) I don't feel like the AHoppy thing got zero attention. Only D2 was your claim that kept us busy and D3 was chairs' unfortunate out before the real discussion started.

5) Haha, that's funny.

6) I don't understand anything you are saying here. How is the chance that scum!you fakeclaims on a townie "statistically higher" than the chance that scum!you fakeclaims on a partner? Also, what's the question with TA? If I have a case on TA, of course I'm pushing your lynch, because there's no scenario where he is scum and you aren't.

7) If that's what you believe, answer my question here.

Okay, I think I've heard enough. It is certain that one of scotty/pps is scum. I have a quite strong town read on scotty, and a quite strong scum read on pps. Time to vote: pingpongsam.

1) Not following where I said I was obvtown. I was saying that I expected to die and then I would be obvtown. That I didn't die is why I am so suspicious of what is taking place today.

2) The Jimmmmm flip paints me scummy in exactly the way you are leveraging by saying, "He also states a conviction that Jimmmm is town. Guess what? Jimmmmm dies the following night, and PPS comments this by stating "well, my reads are spot on" and voting AHoppy at MyLo. Not concerned that scum is just messing with you, trying to exploit your thinking that you have good reads?"

3) Touche, I did use strong Town read. I tend to get that from people who are reading me correctly and are obviously following a long line of consistency without trying to introduce fallacious malignancy to it.

4) You made sure my D2 claim stole the show by moving for immediate lynch, don't push that off on me for actually claiming after you told me it was anti-town to even delay claiming.

5) ...

6) See, this is the fun part. I agree with you and you still contrive it into an argument. Why are you fighting so hard even when I agree with you? Try to divert the attention from the fact that this is a classic MYLO setup for the win.

7) Because today's claims are very likely to be distrusted and possibly even lynched and you don't want to risk blowing your cover.

And since we're voting, Vote: faust, L-2 but I don't think we need to worry about a quickhammer since we're going to need 100% Town consensus here.

[faust]

And here we are again, I'm only responding to the things where I feel there still something to be said.

2) You do realize that make no sense, yes? You're basically saying scum!me planned that you were going to use Jimmmmm's flip as an excuse to vote AHoppy the following Day.

4) On one hand, you think town should have lynched you after your claim, on the other hand, you find me suspicious for pushing your lynch after your claim. How does that work?

7) Right... you do realize that I in fact have claimed? If scott and me were both scum, and knew that claims now are going to be distrusted, why would we plan a setup in which we both claim, making it more likely that one of us dies?

[Twistedarcher]

6) The scumminess of TA
This probably deserves a post on his own. TA is in my eyes not acting like the quasi-IC he claims to be. As IC, you know your reads are probably worse than those of everyone else, so you listen to other players, ask questions, and try to push the game along, only throwing in your opinion when needed. This is not what I saw TA do. Instead, he fervently pushes a case on me - a townie and claimed Cop - even going so far as leaving me to be quickhammered by scum. And if TA is scum, obviously, so has to be PPS.

This is just a load of omgus. I think you're scum, so I must be scummy?

I disagree with how an IC should be played. That's fine, but saying I'm scummy because I don't play it how you would (and not sure if that's how you even played when you were IC) is a stretch.

Also pps your replies on this point don't make sense to me, either, I am not sure what you are saying. It seems like your conclusions aren't agreeing with what you are saying.

[Twistedarcher]

Faust's actions only make sense as town is he's 100% I'm scum.

If he's 100% sure I'm scum, then yes, discrediting me is good.

If he's not 100% sure I'm scum, and I'm town, then he needs to convince me I'm town or try to do that. We are not winning through 3 days if I'm thinking he's town, and he knows that.

Faust's actions make sense if he's scum.

If he's scum, he only needs 1 mislynch, not 3 correct lynches. He doesn't care if the IC trusts him, as long as he can get pps or someone else lynched first. He doesn't need to convince me, he just needs to discredit me enough so that town will ignore me for one lynch.

Everything Faust is doing indicates that he's going for 1 mislynch rather than 3 correct lynches. Someone else please tell me if you disagree with this.

[Twistedarcher]

Instead, he fervently pushes a case on me - a townie and claimed Cop - even going so far as leaving me to be quickhammered by scum. And if TA is scum, obviously, so has to be PPS.

I'd also like to point out that Faust is using this against me despite the fact that:

1) I first voted Faust, and he first subsequently discredited me, before he ever claimed cop. So saying that I'm scummy because I'm pushing against a claimed cop doesn't completely tell the truth when he's been discrediting me since before the claim.

2) he, too, is pushing on and voting a claimed cop. If he was town, therefore, he would know himself that this doesn't necessarily mean someone is scummy, since he was town and doing it. Yet here, he uses it as a point against me.

[faust]

If he's not 100% sure I'm scum, and I'm town, then he needs to convince me I'm town or try to do that. We are not winning through 3 days if I'm thinking he's town, and he knows that.

I hope I don't need to convince you that you're town There are a lot of 'scumslips' in this.

I am not sold on you being scum. I think you're scummy, and I think scum!pps is more likely to fakeclaim a result on a scum partner, but I am first and foremost convinced that pps is scum.

[faust]

Instead, he fervently pushes a case on me - a townie and claimed Cop - even going so far as leaving me to be quickhammered by scum. And if TA is scum, obviously, so has to be PPS.

I'd also like to point out that Faust is using this against me despite the fact that:

1) I first voted Faust, and he first subsequently discredited me, before he ever claimed cop. So saying that I'm scummy because I'm pushing against a claimed cop doesn't completely tell the truth when he's been discrediting me since before the claim.

2) he, too, is pushing on and voting a claimed cop. If he was town, therefore, he would know himself that this doesn't necessarily mean someone is scummy, since he was town and doing it. Yet here, he uses it as a point against me.

You have to agree that, if I'm town, I have a pretty darn good reason to vote pps.

[pingpongsam]

And here we are again, I'm only responding to the things where I feel there still something to be said.

2) You do realize that make no sense, yes? You're basically saying scum!me planned that you were going to use Jimmmmm's flip as an excuse to vote AHoppy the following Day.

4) On one hand, you think town should have lynched you after your claim, on the other hand, you find me suspicious for pushing your lynch after your claim. How does that work?

7) Right... you do realize that I in fact have claimed? If scott and me were both scum, and knew that claims now are going to be distrusted, why would we plan a setup in which we both claim, making it more likely that one of us dies?

2) No, the Jimmmmm flip was leverage against the setup you provided the previous day by pointing out my "crazily good reads". I publicly read Jimmmmm Town and you NK'd him to further drive home the point that my reads are impossibly good for a Townie. You make a decent point about Jimmmmm having a scum read on me but I think that was offset by considering who would be least likely to be doctored along with how you were going to spring for the final mislynch the next day. In that light, Jimmmmm is practically the only choice.

4) No, I didn't think town should lynch me, I just expected to get lynched. That there was a sufficient wagon on me pre-claim made sure that the lynch was informative and thus useful to town. That I expected to be lynched post-claim is not a function of it being a townie thing to do at all but rather a scummy thing to do and you were the most vocal proponent of making it happen. I believe there was a reversal because it was realized that keeping me alive kept TA's alignment ambiguous and provided an excellent opportunity to bring it all up again when conditions were more favorable such as MYLO (now).

7) You are conflating claiming a role with claiming a result. I am the only person this entire game to have claimed a result. Considering the overwhelming number of roles in this game I think that represents a statistical likelihood that my claim is not fake. The Scott/faust setup does have  risk to getting one or the other of you lynched. It also carries a high reward factor of getting me mislynched and coupled with the Jimmmmm flip you effected last night you feel certain you can make it happen. Plus, scum prefers to win with bravado rather than low-key play when possible.

[Twistedarcher]

I mean, if you had known Scott was cop before, then yes.

(If town) But before your claim, you didn't know that pps was scum. For all you knew, you both could have been cops -- and then no more cops out there. What made it seem like a setup was that you knew Scott's claim was coming. If you were town, there's just no way you could have known unless you were 100% certain pps was scum. The fact that you claim, followed immediately by another claim, leads me to 2 possible solutions:

1) you are scum, knew there were no more cops after pps' claim, and fellow scum Scott was also planned to claim to frame pps.

2) you are scum, knew there was one more cop (Scott) and claimed to both out that cop and frame pps.

The scenario you are going by doesn't make sense to me:

3) you are town, unsure as to whether or not pps is cop, unsure as to whether or not there is one more cop out there (if you're a cop, you don't know if there are 5 or 6 --meaning you could not reasonable preclude pps being a cop). You claim, which if you are town, sets you up hugely for scum manipulation ( and you would know this). Basically, the town narrative doesn't make sense -- it only makes sense if you are entirely sure that pps is scum (maybe you investigated him but if that's the case you screwed town by withholding that information this long).

Cases 1 and 2 both seem so much more likely to me -- and maybe that's because I consider what you did, if town, to be poor play and playing right into scums fake claiming flexibility. But the scum narrative makes so much more sense.