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[faust]

I don't have a problem with people assigning percentages to things; it's just a way of giving a rough quantification of your confidence.  90% is like, really, really sure though, about something that's just intuition.  Without any information, there's just over a 50% chance both are town, so if you're going to bump that percentage all the way down to 10% I think you need some very good reasons.

I am also not liking people dropping in and voting for someone, and then saying "I'll explain later".  It looks like a way of trying to get other people thinking about that person, so that you don't look like the one who started it.  I think it is to your advantage to wait until you can post your thoughts on someone before voting for them.

I second all that is said here. But I've realized that some people have a different opinion on the circumstances in which you can say "I am 90% sure" (or "I am 100% sure", for that matter).

[Eevee]

I love people assigning percentages to things. I hate having to guess what level of certainty those percentages actually represent because some people say they are 90% or 99% sure on every little hunch they get.

As in, for chairs' "90% certainty" to mean anything to me, he'd have to have a pretty damn convincing reason for it. "A gut read" with no further specification just makes the whole thing seem sketchy after seeming so confident at first.

[pingpongsam]

I kind of took it as "I have very little compelling me to look outside my gut feeling".

[AHoppy]

So just checking in and throwing my thoughts down while I catch up.  Life has been crazy and my motivation to play mafia has decreased significantly, I'm really sorry about that.   Anyways, heres my inner monologue during my catch up:

I agree with yuma that the thought out post from scott does make him look rather towny.  I'm going to lean town on him

I'm not really sure what Jimmmm means about PPS being too self-aware...
PPS is however still being aggressive, but I'm not really sure what to think of that.  I know my experiences with Robz are that when he is aggressive he is scum.  But, I think that was only the one experience.  And Robz, not PPS.  So, in conclusion, not really anything to take away from that...  I do kinds of think that expecting the worst from everybody is kind of a town trait, because as town, you suspect everyone as being scum.  I feel like that would be harder as scum, but I don't really know...  slight town points there?

Eevee: Why do you say that PPS and Jimmmm are unlikely to be scumpartners?

I'm also still not sure about PPS' whole "all scum was probably on AHoppy scenario".  I don't get why they would all be on my wagon...  Town can be horribly wrong, all the time.  I know in my previous games, I have made many bad reads on town players.  I was 100% convinced Archetype was scum but he wasn't.  So what I'm saying is that enough of town could have been wrong to only have 1-2 scum on me. 

@996 PPS: you presented your theory as if it were the only case:

I reread the end of D1. AHoppy was at 6 votes + intent to hammer twice and still wasn't lynched. How does that even happen with town players?

I think this presents 2 strong possibilities:

scum!AHoppy - Everybody but scum and a few diehards were on the wagon.

town!AHoppy - All of scum was on that wagon and damned near enough town were on it to get a mislynch.

I'm going to have to agree with Eevee, Robz post there does look a little scummy.  It looks more like a "hey I'm still here" kind of post that doesn't really further any conversation.

@ [urlhttp://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=9946.msg339649#msg339649]#1014[/url]I'm actually in agreement with you faust, even if it means my death.  In this game specifically, we have no idea if we even have a cop tonight.  Or if we had one last night.  One of our cops died, and if we only have what, 4-6? so that means we have 3-5 left with no guarantee that the investigations will happen tonight.  I'm not up to running the numbers on it, but I do like a definite way (lynch) to find out an alignment as opposed to a gamble (which, you then have to rely also on the cop's judgement of who to investigate...)

No faulting Jimmmm for not posting his argument yet, I've been there.

Still like scotty, he brings up the real problem with chairs vote on yuma: 90% being super confident for a gut. 

and that looks like I'm caught up.  I'm still really not sure what to think of yuma vs. Robz, but with PPS vs. Jimmmm, I'm thinking less and less that it is Town v. Town, because the fight didn't escalate out of control.  PPS just kind of dropped it.  I mean, PPS could be right that this is an elaborate setup, but I also generally think that when people say they have issues IRL keeping them from it, then they do.  So, I think this makes PPS look scummier because it looks like he doesn't want to step on any toes, even though he is more combative than most of us.  Come to think of it, I think I can actually throw a vote down for this.  Vote: PPS
(Cringe as I incur his wrath)

[AHoppy]

Apologies for the link fail.  That's supposed to go here

[Archetype]

vote: archetype

that was a scummy scummy post.

people assigning percentages arbitrarily is like my biggest pet peeve ever, and chairs never struck to me as someone who'd be guilty of it. why so sure, chairs?

Can you explain how Archetype's post was scummy?

Not for the likes of you!

..just kidding, of course. One of the reasons has got to do with an ongoing game though, so can't give you that.

- his stance on scott is just combining what yuma and me said. Nothing original there, and leaves all doors open for archetype to join or not join that wagon later.

-he calls jimm's vote on PPS weak, even though Jimm has said there is a case coming soon. How can you know before seeing the case?

It is noteworthy that fights like the one PPS and Jimmm had usually don't die on their own like that.

- Well, yeah I suppose. I guess that's what I get to offer for lurking - outdated information.

- Because it was weak. I think the reasons Jimmmmm's likely to provide (PPS not making any sense) are weak as well.

[yuma]

My girlfriend had to be hospitalized Monday, so, uhm... sorry I've been absent.

vote: yuma.  I'm 90% sure that either yuma or robz is scum, and my gut is saying it's more likely yuma or both than robz alone (I could totally see the argument for both - this is exactly the kind of thing I'd expect from scum!yuma and scum!robz because it could look like TvT and at least could make one of them look -really- townie).

you better explain your "gut before you leave...

(Also sorry to hear about your girlfriend, hope all is well)

I didn't even see this before I left, sorry.  Not much to explain, it's intuition.  It's like every time I read your argument with Robz my brain has a light going "WARNING: SCUM".

See and when I read your post here my brain has a light going "WARNING: PURE BULL CRAP".

[yuma]

I mean... at the least you could pinpoint which of the posts of mine you read (or was it every single one? If that is the case there should be something more specific you can say) that gave your gut a scummy feeling (are you sure it just wasn't something that you ate? maybe you should read it again after eating some crackers and drinking a seltzer) and then we can at least try to infer what you found so scummy that you are 90% sure...

[Jimmmmm]

I think the reasons Jimmmmm's likely to provide (PPS not making any sense) are weak as well.

Pre-empting what someone is going to say and preconceiving it as weak is bad play at best.

[pingpongsam]

I'm also still not sure about PPS' whole "all scum was probably on AHoppy scenario".  I don't get why they would all be on my wagon...  Town can be horribly wrong, all the time.  I know in my previous games, I have made many bad reads on town players.  I was 100% convinced Archetype was scum but he wasn't.  So what I'm saying is that enough of town could have been wrong to only have 1-2 scum on me. 

@996 PPS: you presented your theory as if it were the only case:

I reread the end of D1. AHoppy was at 6 votes + intent to hammer twice and still wasn't lynched. How does that even happen with town players?

I think this presents 2 strong possibilities:

scum!AHoppy - Everybody but scum and a few diehards were on the wagon.

town!AHoppy - All of scum was on that wagon and damned near enough town were on it to get a mislynch.

Yeah, well, I think it is unlikely all of scum was on your wagon, too. Which logically results in you being scum. Do you have a better answer to faust's question? Funnyy ou pick on me for answering it but do not propose an alternative answer yourself.

[pingpongsam]

It's fascinating to me that Jimmmmm did the most obviously scummy thing this entire game and when I gave him the leeway to do what he said he would do I caught votes for it. Yet, Jimmmmm hasn't bothered to do what he said he would do. Why am I catching the heat for Jimmmmm's unabashedly scummy behavior?

[Jimmmmm]

It's fascinating to me that Jimmmmm did the most obviously scummy thing this entire game and when I gave him the leeway to do what he said he would do I caught votes for it. Yet, Jimmmmm hasn't bothered to do what he said he would do. Why am I catching the heat for Jimmmmm's unabashedly scummy behavior?

What have I done that's "unabashedly scummy"?

[pingpongsam]

It's fascinating to me that Jimmmmm did the most obviously scummy thing this entire game and when I gave him the leeway to do what he said he would do I caught votes for it. Yet, Jimmmmm hasn't bothered to do what he said he would do. Why am I catching the heat for Jimmmmm's unabashedly scummy behavior?

What have I done that's "unabashedly scummy"?

That whole thing where you say this guy over here is probably scum I can just feel it and I'll tell ya'll 'bout it later and then never actually do so. I called it baseless suspicion. Arguments came out that the base was forthcoming so it must not be baseless. Well no base came forth so it is in fact baseless suspicion being cast about which is unabashedly scummy. When does Town spread baseless suspicion with no case to back it up?

[yuma]

It's fascinating to me that Jimmmmm did the most obviously scummy thing this entire game and when I gave him the leeway to do what he said he would do I caught votes for it. Yet, Jimmmmm hasn't bothered to do what he said he would do. Why am I catching the heat for Jimmmmm's unabashedly scummy behavior?

What have I done that's "unabashedly scummy"?

I agree with pps. Until you present your case the lack thereof is default scummy. Now that doesn't necessarily make you mafia, but in general it is scummy behavior in the same way that lurking through a game is default scummy. We know you are busy and respect that, but until you actually present something we have to assume that you actually have nothing because there is nothing to contradict that base assumption. Once you do, then we can readjust our opinion depending on what is given.

[yuma]

It's fascinating to me that Jimmmmm did the most obviously scummy thing this entire game and when I gave him the leeway to do what he said he would do I caught votes for it. Yet, Jimmmmm hasn't bothered to do what he said he would do. Why am I catching the heat for Jimmmmm's unabashedly scummy behavior?

furthermore I also echo this. FOS the voters of PPS during this time period I think... (I could also potentially see it as pre-emptively joining a wagon in anticipation of a case being made to get on the wagon early)

[Jimmmmm]

It's fascinating to me that Jimmmmm did the most obviously scummy thing this entire game and when I gave him the leeway to do what he said he would do I caught votes for it. Yet, Jimmmmm hasn't bothered to do what he said he would do. Why am I catching the heat for Jimmmmm's unabashedly scummy behavior?

What have I done that's "unabashedly scummy"?

That whole thing where you say this guy over here is probably scum I can just feel it and I'll tell ya'll 'bout it later and then never actually do so. I called it baseless suspicion. Arguments came out that the base was forthcoming so it must not be baseless. Well no base came forth so it is in fact baseless suspicion being cast about which is unabashedly scummy. When does Town spread baseless suspicion with no case to back it up?

That's some major twisting there. Here's what I actually said:

Vote: pps

A feeling more than anything else. I'll say more when I can, probably when I'm not at work.

I still support the Eevee lynch.

I gave pps a re-read. I have more to say about him that I can't really now, but my main impression from him is that he's too self-aware.

I never said that you were "probably scum" and I never tried to convince anyone to vote for you. I was getting a scummy vibe from you so I voted for you, then I re-read you and said the impression that I got from you and that I had more to say. That was less than 48 hours ago. There are still 7-8 days left until deadline. I'll say what I have to say when I'm good and ready to say it.

Also, suspicion in this game is never baseless. With 3 scum in 10 people (excluding me), I'm starting from a base of 30% chance of you being scum.

[yuma]

I'll say what I have to say when I'm good and ready to say it.

Also, suspicion in this game is never baseless. With 3 scum in 10 people (excluding me), I'm starting from a base of 30% chance of you being scum.

Fair enough, but don't get mad at us when we suspect you (or are at least wary of you) for not posting what that stuff is because like I said if you don't post it we have to assume there isn't anything actually there...

And there is baseless suspicion in this game. Scum has to do have baseless suspicion... that is how they win! because they know someone is town and have to figure out a way to get them lynched based off stuff that from their "point of view" is baseless... that is what the rest of us are trying to figure out (well at least I am)... is Jimmmm trying to get PPS mislynched? I can't start to figure that out until you post your reasons, so until you start doing so I start at the baseline of "scummy"

[pingpongsam]

It's fascinating to me that Jimmmmm did the most obviously scummy thing this entire game and when I gave him the leeway to do what he said he would do I caught votes for it. Yet, Jimmmmm hasn't bothered to do what he said he would do. Why am I catching the heat for Jimmmmm's unabashedly scummy behavior?

What have I done that's "unabashedly scummy"?

That whole thing where you say this guy over here is probably scum I can just feel it and I'll tell ya'll 'bout it later and then never actually do so. I called it baseless suspicion. Arguments came out that the base was forthcoming so it must not be baseless. Well no base came forth so it is in fact baseless suspicion being cast about which is unabashedly scummy. When does Town spread baseless suspicion with no case to back it up?

That's some major twisting there. Here's what I actually said:

Vote: pps

A feeling more than anything else. I'll say more when I can, probably when I'm not at work.

I still support the Eevee lynch.

I gave pps a re-read. I have more to say about him that I can't really now, but my main impression from him is that he's too self-aware.

I never said that you were "probably scum" and I never tried to convince anyone to vote for you. I was getting a scummy vibe from you so I voted for you, then I re-read you and said the impression that I got from you and that I had more to say. That was less than 48 hours ago. There are still 7-8 days left until deadline. I'll say what I have to say when I'm good and ready to say it.

Also, suspicion in this game is never baseless. With 3 scum in 10 people (excluding me), I'm starting from a base of 30% chance of you being scum.

I'm not seeing the twist. When you vote someone you are effectively saying "this guy is probably scum". Just because you don't type the words out doesn't mean that is not the message you just broadcast. You maintain a vote on me so you maintain that message right now, that is, you continue to say it without typing it. You did say it was just a feeling.

I'm the one who never said that you said anything about trying to convince others to vote for me. You brought that in here as words to put in my mouth.

Who is twisting who again?

[Jimmmmm]

yuma, I totally agree with your last 3 posts. What I disagree with is that my not posting my thoughts on pps within a couple of days of saying I will is "the most obviously scummy thing this entire game" or "unabashedly scummy behavior".

[yuma]

yuma, I totally agree with your last 3 posts. What I disagree with is that my not posting my thoughts on pps within a couple of days of saying I will is "the most obviously scummy thing this entire game" or "unabashedly scummy behavior".

Maybe not the most obviously scummy thing... well certainly not.

But it is scummy behavior. Unabashedly... well I can see where pps is coming from if he is town because having been in that situation--goodness I am practically in that situation with chairs--before it is 1. frustrating to not be able to respond to a reason why someone is voting for you and 2. it is natural to react to someone voting for you when you are town with a scummy vibe toward them, not always correctly, but certainly natural given the nature of the game. This is compounded when a reason isn't put forward. So I don't really have a problem with pps feeling that way, especially as he has been waiting and even unvoted you in anticipation of your case.

[pingpongsam]

This should be a fun exercise then.

Everyone please list the most obviously scummy behavior they have witnessed in this game to date.

[yuma]

This should be a fun exercise then.

Everyone please list the most obviously scummy behavior they have witnessed in this game to date.

Robz pre-emptively attacking me in anticipation of me making a case on him is still at the top of my list.

[Archetype]

Probably Yuma backing off on the Robz wagon. But I'm actually been leaning Town on Yuma from his last few posts.

[Jimmmmm]

It's fascinating to me that Jimmmmm did the most obviously scummy thing this entire game and when I gave him the leeway to do what he said he would do I caught votes for it. Yet, Jimmmmm hasn't bothered to do what he said he would do. Why am I catching the heat for Jimmmmm's unabashedly scummy behavior?

What have I done that's "unabashedly scummy"?

That whole thing where you say this guy over here is probably scum I can just feel it and I'll tell ya'll 'bout it later and then never actually do so. I called it baseless suspicion. Arguments came out that the base was forthcoming so it must not be baseless. Well no base came forth so it is in fact baseless suspicion being cast about which is unabashedly scummy. When does Town spread baseless suspicion with no case to back it up?

That's some major twisting there. Here's what I actually said:

Vote: pps

A feeling more than anything else. I'll say more when I can, probably when I'm not at work.

I still support the Eevee lynch.

I gave pps a re-read. I have more to say about him that I can't really now, but my main impression from him is that he's too self-aware.

I never said that you were "probably scum" and I never tried to convince anyone to vote for you. I was getting a scummy vibe from you so I voted for you, then I re-read you and said the impression that I got from you and that I had more to say. That was less than 48 hours ago. There are still 7-8 days left until deadline. I'll say what I have to say when I'm good and ready to say it.

Also, suspicion in this game is never baseless. With 3 scum in 10 people (excluding me), I'm starting from a base of 30% chance of you being scum.

I'm not seeing the twist. When you vote someone you are effectively saying "this guy is probably scum".

False. I don't know why you do what you do, but there are many reasons to vote for someone in this game. It's relatively rare for me to get to the point of believing someone is "probably" (ie >50%) scum in the first couple of Days. Other reasons to vote include, but are not limited to: seeing how they will react, seeing how others will react, helping the most viable lynch go through because it's better than nothing, helping your preferred viable lynch go through because it's better than the alternative, trying to help the game progress because it's stalling.

If you concluded more than I meant from my vote, I can understand that. But all I said was I have a feeling, and I had more to say. I never said it was a case, just that I had more to say.

I'm the one who never said that you said anything about trying to convince others to vote for me. You brought that in here as words to put in my mouth.

Who is twisting who again?

Well it gets a bit ridiculous at this point because I never said you said I said anything about trying to convince others to vote for you. I was simply pointing out that I didn't try to start a wagon or spread suspicion on you based simply on the little I had said.

Anyway, I apologise for the delay in posting my thoughts. It hasn't been that long, but it's been longer than I intended. In the meantime, this discussion is a bit pointless. I'm not going to say any more about it until I'm at home and have time to finish and post what I have to say.

[Robz888]

This should be a fun exercise then.

Everyone please list the most obviously scummy behavior they have witnessed in this game to date.

Robz pre-emptively attacking me in anticipation of me making a case on him is still at the top of my list.

I simply never did this, and the post you link to provides no evidence of me doing this. And I was just starting to read you as more townie! Seriously, I was, because I agree with you on scotty, and something else I can't recall, and oh I'm big time agreeing with you and I guess PPS on Jimm. Looks to me like Jimm wanted to be voting for someone, and now can't justify the vote he laid down, and is flailing.