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Author Topic: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (Mafia win flawlessly)  (Read 143576 times)

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Twistedarcher

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #525 on: January 20, 2014, 01:22:49 pm »

Well as I said above, I agree with Voltaire that scum doesn't make the obvious scummy statements like "A concious effort to react as much as possible". I also think Eevee is playing in a way that is similar to Dynasty Warriors II, where he was town. I had a town read on Eevee before the wagon, and his reaction to it has reinforced it. I probably shouldn't have said "somewhat", basically.

But how is his play similar! This is just an easy statement to throw out there without proof.

What gave you the townread before the wagon?
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Teproc

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #526 on: January 20, 2014, 01:26:12 pm »

His similar play to Dynasty Warriors was giving me the townread. His "making sense = scum" in particular is something he said early in that game (against me actually) and his general attitude of not posting a lot and having a hard time forming reads. Compared to GoT, where he was also less active early, but his reads were much stronger. I think I've made this point earlier, which is why I didn't give "proof".

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Robz888

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #527 on: January 20, 2014, 01:31:43 pm »

Hey, you shouldn't invoke Dynasty Warriors until it's over.
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Teproc

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #528 on: January 20, 2014, 01:33:03 pm »

Is it not okay when talking about Eevee's play, since he has flipped town already there ? I thought it was. Sorry if it wasn't.
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Voltaire

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #529 on: January 20, 2014, 01:38:33 pm »

Is it not okay when talking about Eevee's play, since he has flipped town already there ? I thought it was. Sorry if it wasn't.

No talking about ongoing games at all until they're over.

The reason we have this rule? You're still alive in DW. Players shouldn't be able to get a read on you in that game from how you talk about it in this game.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #530 on: January 20, 2014, 01:52:24 pm »

Ok, here's the reason for my initial vote on Eevee, I haven't completely had time to write this out.

Basically, I associate D1 Eevee with going off of his gut, rather than his head. There are multiple times where he's been able to nail me as scum (correctly) based off of a gut read -- Innovation, Monty Python Blitz Mafia, and Modern Community all stand out for me as times that Eevee used gut reads to pick out scum early (and these stick out clearly to me since I was on the receiving end of these gut reads). To me, a typical early D1 Eevee post is something like "Hey guys, I'm following around, I don't have any strong reads yet, nothing has stuck out to me", etc. etc. etc. I got a completely different feeling from one of his first posts of this game (which I will quote later), and it reads scum to me.

I just went back to look for comparisons with his most recent scum games (Game of Thrones, Mean Girls). Let's quote early posts from those games here:

I think the only game MGP is in is still ongoing, so actually no, we cant' give you a rundown.

Ashersky, "super towny" might be bit of a stretch about your play in bankers beware..

Actually these longer "more analytical" posts (which I find better as a town playing style) are actually a trait I attribute to scum ashersky. Vote: ashersky, only semi-rvs.

This quote is from Mean Girls, where Eevee was scum. Note that Eevee did not know that Ashersky was scum in D1 of this game, even though they were partners (Yuma or Eevee, correct me if this is wrong). This was about his 9th post of the game, but the ones before that were mostly involved in theory.

I'd like to plob my vote down somewhere. Walrus's flipflopping on faust sememed like he wants to please the crowd, first finding him scummy but then changing his mind when yuma (?) voiced criticism on his reasons. That's more mafiay behavior in my opinion, especially a newer mafia would want to blend in with the crowd.

vote: walrus

This is one of the first posts from Eevee in Game of Thrones, where he was also scum. Probably, again, about his 10th post of the game -- there were a few talking about theory (should Bulletproof Townie claim), and then a catch up post where he posts a few reads, followed immediately by this post. There's a similarity with the last post -- an identity of a scum trait, which he attributes to a player, then voting that player.

Vote: TwistedArcher

It does help to move the game towards social deduction if people start voting. This is unfair because TA really made some good points, but the way he laid them out, all sense-making and noncontroversial, is just how scum likes to blend in in my opinion.

As I get more experienced with mafia, I too am starting to suffer from a case of Robziaitis, which is caring less and less how others view you or your alignment, and more and more about just doing what you think will work.

Now, this is the post from this game that I found scummy. There's some similarities with the previous two posts, again - it's an identity of a possible scum trait, followed by attributing that trait to a player, then an early vote.

This is VERY different than the early town meta I associate with Eevee, which is him trying to get a "feel" for the game early on. There are similarities between all three of these games -- two where Eevee is scum, and this game where Eevee is unknown. His reasoning, identifying "scum traits" early, rather than having a "gut read" on a player (which I associate with town Eevee), is something that I think makes Eevee to flip scum here.

The next step, of course, which I haven't taken, is to go back and read games where Eevee was town, and see how exclusive this trait is to his town games, if at all. I will hopefully get to that soon.
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Robz888

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #531 on: January 20, 2014, 01:53:04 pm »

Is it not okay when talking about Eevee's play, since he has flipped town already there ? I thought it was. Sorry if it wasn't.

No talking about ongoing games at all until they're over.

The reason we have this rule? You're still alive in DW. Players shouldn't be able to get a read on you in that game from how you talk about it in this game.

Exactly.
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Teproc

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #532 on: January 20, 2014, 02:00:39 pm »

Ok, I thought people who had flipped were fair game, but what you're saying makes sense of course. I won't do it again.

PS : This means I could talk about it if we were both dead in it, right ? This is peripheral stuff that doesn't actually contribute to this game, but I do want to know exactly where the line is.

PPE : Oh, well I disagree with TA's conclusions here, but I do get a townread on TA from that post.
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Robz888

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #533 on: January 20, 2014, 02:04:47 pm »

Ok, I thought people who had flipped were fair game, but what you're saying makes sense of course. I won't do it again.

PS : This means I could talk about it if we were both dead in it, right ? This is peripheral stuff that doesn't actually contribute to this game, but I do want to know exactly where the line is.

PPE : Oh, well I disagree with TA's conclusions here, but I do get a townread on TA from that post.

Still no. You can't discuss any aspect of a game until it's over. Because what if I wanted to argue against the point you were making, but I was still alive in the othe game, and of unknown alignment? You just can't go there at all until it's over.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #534 on: January 20, 2014, 02:07:11 pm »

Twistedarcher - Town

faust - Town - My biggest town read, I think his posts have been extremely genuine, he has been asking good questions, and he just screams town to me.

Voltaire - Town - probably my second biggest town read, behind Faust. He's making so much sense, and I agree with his reads so much. This is potentially dangerous, but right now, he is just making so much sense and reading the game very similarly to me.

chairs - Slight Town - Although I don't give him as much town cred as Voltaire has. I am null on him forgetting the game, but I am leaning town here. I get a more disinterested town than anything else.

Jimmmmm - Slightly Town - Getting a town feel from a lot of his posts, and I haven't seen anything that makes me want to look this way for a lynch at all.

Robz888 - Null - Lurking, and came back like he would if he were either town or scum, I think

scott_pilgrim - Null - Lurking, I don't remember much that he's said. Need to revisit him.

Archetype - Null - The only player who, when I was going through this list, I thought "Oh yeah, he's in this game". I couldn't tell you anything about his play so far.

yuma - Slight scum - Although moving more to null, I think. Analyzing the early wagon was scummy, but I think he generally reacted well to the vote. I want to revisit this later, but I don't want to lynch him D1, I think.

pingpongsam - Slight scum - I don't know how to read him, I really don't. Some of his actions have seemed so scummy, but I am just unsure on how to read him. Like Yuma, probably better saved for later, when I can get a better read, because I am fluctuating back and forth on him more than anyone else.

AHoppy - Slightly scum - I think it was his early reads post that gave me a scummy vibe, and I can't quite explain why. There's something about that post that threw me off, and I have been meaning to go back and see if I can find exactly what it was that gave me this read. I also got a slightly scummish read from his post saying "I'm following, but don't have a lot to say", as it came after Chairs getting some towncred for making the exact same post.

Teproc - Slight scum - Doing the same thing I found Yuma scummy for -- analyzing the Eevee wagon, with what I find to be pretty weak reasons. "He seems similar to this game where he was town" is always a weak reason for finding someone scummy -- it always reads as a cop out to me, or as someone using it to justify a position when they don't really have a good reason. I don't remember much of his play except for the recent things. I am definitely viewing this through the "I think Eevee is scum" lens, though.

Eevee - Scum - I just went over this.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #535 on: January 20, 2014, 02:07:57 pm »

Teproc, why do you disagree with my conclusions? I need more than what you've been giving me!
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faust

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #536 on: January 20, 2014, 02:11:46 pm »

Archetype - Null - The only player who, when I was going through this list, I thought "Oh yeah, he's in this game". I couldn't tell you anything about his play so far.

Perhaps you should read the beginning of this Day again. Archetype was the one who proposed the Doc/Cop claiming plan. The way he approached this left me with a town impression, you might be able to get some read from there as well.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #537 on: January 20, 2014, 02:13:58 pm »

Oh I agree I super need to re-read, but Hearthstone is taking up all my online time these days..
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Jimmmmm

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #538 on: January 20, 2014, 02:16:05 pm »

Archetype... left me with a town impression

... on Day 1? That's different!
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faust

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #539 on: January 20, 2014, 02:17:03 pm »

Archetype... left me with a town impression

... on Day 1? That's different!

I know, I'm quite surprised myself!
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Teproc

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #540 on: January 20, 2014, 03:46:13 pm »

Teproc, why do you disagree with my conclusions? I need more than what you've been giving me!

Sure.


This is VERY different than the early town meta I associate with Eevee, which is him trying to get a "feel" for the game early on.

This is where I disagree. It seems to me that Eevee is doing exactly what you describe here, saying he's having a hard time getting reads on people, trying to contribute to get the game moving along.

I don't think his vote on you resembles the other votes you've quoted that much, so in this game I see Eevee behaving as his town self.

I also expect you to ask clarifications on why your Eevee case gives me a townread on you, so here goes. If you were scum, I don't think you'd be pointing out the fact that Eevee has a history of catching you and then vote for him when he's actually voting for you right now (and his vote for you is one of your arguments against him).

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yuma

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #541 on: January 20, 2014, 10:54:45 pm »


AHoppy - Slightly scum - I think it was his early reads post that gave me a scummy vibe, and I can't quite explain why. There's something about that post that threw me off, and I have been meaning to go back and see if I can find exactly what it was that gave me this read. I also got a slightly scummish read from his post saying "I'm following, but don't have a lot to say", as it came after Chairs getting some towncred for making the exact same post.

Teproc - Slight scum - Doing the same thing I found Yuma scummy for -- analyzing the Eevee wagon, with what I find to be pretty weak reasons. "He seems similar to this game where he was town" is always a weak reason for finding someone scummy -- it always reads as a cop out to me, or as someone using it to justify a position when they don't really have a good reason. I don't remember much of his play except for the recent things. I am definitely viewing this through the "I think Eevee is scum" lens, though.

Eevee - Scum - I just went over this.

I don't agree with some of TA's other reads, I would have me (obviously) chairs and PPS higher while faust and Jimmmm lower, but I do agree with these three reads.

Obviously I am voting for Eevee, and I mentioned, but havent' gotten around to actually detailing, that some things from Teproc have stood out to me. But I think I am still ok with my Eevee vote so I am not in a big rush to put those points down
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scott_pilgrim

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #542 on: January 20, 2014, 11:59:11 pm »

After thinking about it some more I can see why people don't like the no lynch plan.  Every time we don't lynch, we have to make up for the chance that we could have hit mafia by the value of the 1-2 extra power uses we might get.  If we lynch town, then we still get information, probably about as much as we would get (on average) from the extra power uses we could have had.  So they come out about the same, except that if we lynch we might hit mafia, which is obviously better than not lynching mafia.

Okay, so mostly I feel like yuma, TA, and PPS are highest chance of being scum (mostly gut feeling).  If TA is not scum then I think there would be a very good chance PPS is, so by lynching him we either hit scum or we get valuable information.

Vote: Twistedarcher
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Twistedarcher

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #543 on: January 21, 2014, 12:39:42 am »

Okay, so mostly I feel like yuma, TA, and PPS are highest chance of being scum (mostly gut feeling).  If TA is not scum then I think there would be a very good chance PPS is, so by lynching him we either hit scum or we get valuable information.

Vote: Twistedarcher

If you end up lynching me, when I flip town, please do not assume PPS is town. I don't know why me flipping town would implicate PPS in any way.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #544 on: January 21, 2014, 12:40:01 am »

Assume PPS is scum**
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faust

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #545 on: January 21, 2014, 04:11:39 am »

Well, it seems that the no-lynch plan has died, so I guess it's better for me to contribute to voting so that the mafia doesn't control the lynch. Between Teproc and Eevee, I think Teproc is acting more scummy in general. The way he defends Eevee (when Eevee himself says that there are reasons for town to vote for him) just feels strange, and could be either defending his partner or trying to grab towncred.

Vote: Teproc
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pingpongsam

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #546 on: January 21, 2014, 08:14:52 am »

If TA is not scum then I think there would be a very good chance PPS is...

Can you elaborate on that? Without any substantiation it comes off as an attempt to line up two mislynches.
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scott_pilgrim

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #547 on: January 21, 2014, 09:22:37 am »

Well, my thought was that since PPS went through that whole conspiracy theory arguing how TA would be scum, it would be likely that either his argument is actually correct (a lot of it seems reasonable), or that he specifically targeted TA because he was in a position to be set up as scum.  PPS went back and forth on that theory, but that's not hard to fake as scum.

Of course I'm not saying if TA flips town just assume PPS is scum, I'm just saying that that's probably the strongest interaction we've had yet so we gain the most useful information from TA's flip.
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pingpongsam

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #548 on: January 21, 2014, 09:43:03 am »

So if TA were to flip scum would you assume or just lean towards me being town?
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scott_pilgrim

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #549 on: January 21, 2014, 09:57:46 am »

So if TA were to flip scum would you assume or just lean towards me being town?

No, I did not say if and only if.  I just said if TA is town, you are more likely scum.
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