Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Jimmmmm]

Jimmmmm, I think your plan does imply that Fake Cops aren't part of the equation.

Are you talking about the idea where a Doc claims before the Night his power activates? Are you saying I'm assuming that scum will not fakeclaim Cop in order to draw protection away from others? That's obviously a possibility. But I don't think scum claiming Cop is the worst thing in the world for us. Even a fake investigation result gives us information. Also, there are more Docs than scum, so if we did that, there would be a time where a Doc claimed and this was not followed by a fakeclaim.

You state that if all the Docs are toast then there is no need for them anyhow. Let's assume a scenario wherein we have 2 mislynches and 3 NKs that have depleted all of the doctor roles. The surviving players are split 2/6 mafia/town. A fake cop claim comes out and we mislynch someone. Well, now it's 2/5 and we are sure to lose someone at night putting us at 2/4 the next day. We zap the the obvious fake claimer going 1/4 and the NK puts us at 1/3. No we are lylo with dueling fake claim/real claim which I think is a situation we would like to avoid since it becomes a complete gamble on winning or losing all because we opted to make our Doctors sitting ducks at night.

This is a terrible argument. Lylo with fake claims and real claims is so much better than lylo without. If someone claims a positive result, then you can take the odds from 1/3 to 1/2. Best case scenario is that Docs die before Cops. Sure, a Doc might get a lucky save in, but a Cop who lives past his Night is guaranteed a result. If it's going to be 2/6 on Day 4, the absolute best case scenario is that the 6 Townies are Cops. Statistically 3-4 will have results. That's amazing! Do you know how wonderfully we could PoE with 3-4 out of 8 people having actual confirmed Town or confirmed scum results? Plus any scum claiming Cop will have to back up their claim. But of course, that won't happen. The problem with claiming is not that scum will kill the Docs, it's that they will kill the Cops. There is a small chance that a protection will work, but probably they won't.

[Twistedarcher]

I see where you're coming from -- while I'm giving Faust and nkirbit townier reads currently, they are for different reasons -- sorry if I didn't make that clear.

Faust has seemed, while obviously (in my eyes, and yours as well) wrong in his belief on claiming, very genuine and towny in pushing it. I'm just reading it as towny, more than anything else. Obviously this may change, but my gut is telling me he's town at this point.

Nkirbit just seems very straightforward and logical, which I think are qualities that always tend to shine through when he's town (he is also my brother, btw, for anyone was wasn't aware).

[pingpongsam]

-towny read on PPS, even though I don't agree with him
-townier read on faust
-welcome, scott!

what would we gain from claiming anything at all? serious question here, is it really helpful at all to get a rough idea of our pr split? to me it seems cops are so much more powerful, the main function of the docs is to get night killed. I'm in the "cops with results claim, others stay quiet" camp.

I'm confused. I specifically stated this is where I stand. What part are you disagreeing with me on?

[Twistedarcher]

-towny read on PPS, even though I don't agree with him
-townier read on faust
-welcome, scott!

what would we gain from claiming anything at all? serious question here, is it really helpful at all to get a rough idea of our pr split? to me it seems cops are so much more powerful, the main function of the docs is to get night killed. I'm in the "cops with results claim, others stay quiet" camp.

I'm confused. I specifically stated this is where I stand. What part are you disagreeing with me on?

I think he means your reads (probably Faust) instead of your position on claiming.

[Jimmmmm]

pps, I'm trying my best to understand what you mean, but I just don't. How does everyone claiming Cop or Doc assume that scum won't claim Cop?

The whole point of the idea is that scum will have to fakeclaim. We will either have 7 people claim Cop or 7 people claim Doc. Either way, we will have a list of 7 people that we know for an absolute fact contains at least one scum. Maybe this is pretty minor information, but it's still solid information.

[pingpongsam]

pps, I'm trying my best to understand what you mean, but I just don't. How does everyone claiming Cop or Doc assume that scum won't claim Cop?

It doesn't, it assures it. In fact, they will claim cop and not doctor so that it will be a gamble for us to decide who is lying when it cop claim vs cop claim. My question to you earlier was a confounded concern that this hadn't occurred to you.

I follow your analysis about the statistics and I can agree with your points. I'm still not certain that the massclaim is the best approach. I think it gives scum information in a way that allows them to best use the night kills. Whereas if claims only come with results they are left in reaction mode the entire game.

[Twistedarcher]

pps, I'm trying my best to understand what you mean, but I just don't. How does everyone claiming Cop or Doc assume that scum won't claim Cop?

The whole point of the idea is that scum will have to fakeclaim. We will either have 7 people claim Cop or 7 people claim Doc. Either way, we will have a list of 7 people that we know for an absolute fact contains at least one scum. Maybe this is pretty minor information, but it's still solid information.

This information is nowhere near useful enough to overcome the disadvantages to scum knowing who the cops are.

[Jimmmmm]

In fact, they will claim cop and not doctor so that it will be a gamble for us to decide who is lying when it cop claim vs cop claim.

This makes no sense. At all. The game of Mafia is a gamble about deciding who is lying. Scum can't force us into that, that's the game. Deciding between two claimed Cops has got to be easier than deciding between three claimed VTs.

[Archetype]

pps, I'm trying my best to understand what you mean, but I just don't. How does everyone claiming Cop or Doc assume that scum won't claim Cop?

The whole point of the idea is that scum will have to fakeclaim. We will either have 7 people claim Cop or 7 people claim Doc. Either way, we will have a list of 7 people that we know for an absolute fact contains at least one scum. Maybe this is pretty minor information, but it's still solid information.

This information is nowhere near useful enough to overcome the disadvantages to scum knowing who the cops are.

Yes but then the Docs know who to protect.

[Jimmmmm]

pps, I'm trying my best to understand what you mean, but I just don't. How does everyone claiming Cop or Doc assume that scum won't claim Cop?

The whole point of the idea is that scum will have to fakeclaim. We will either have 7 people claim Cop or 7 people claim Doc. Either way, we will have a list of 7 people that we know for an absolute fact contains at least one scum. Maybe this is pretty minor information, but it's still solid information.

This information is nowhere near useful enough to overcome the disadvantages to scum knowing who the cops are.

I agree, that's why I don't think we should do it Today. But we should do it at some point, even if we wait until lylo.

[Twistedarcher]

pps, I'm trying my best to understand what you mean, but I just don't. How does everyone claiming Cop or Doc assume that scum won't claim Cop?

The whole point of the idea is that scum will have to fakeclaim. We will either have 7 people claim Cop or 7 people claim Doc. Either way, we will have a list of 7 people that we know for an absolute fact contains at least one scum. Maybe this is pretty minor information, but it's still solid information.

This information is nowhere near useful enough to overcome the disadvantages to scum knowing who the cops are.

Yes but then the Docs know who to protect.

But it's still likely to be unsuccessful. Assume 1 doctor / night for simplicity. Assume 5 cops, 5 doctors. N1, doc1 has to choose between probably 7 targets (assuming 2 scum fakeclaim cop and 1 scum fakeclaim doctor, but whatever, if it's the other way the analysis is mostly the same). That's a 1/7 chance of protecting the night kill (since doctor could very well protect scum). Before the claim, doctor had 1/12 chance of protecting the night kill.

So, doctor odds have improved from 1/12 to 1/7. That's going from 8.3% to 14.3%.

Meanwhile, without any claims, scum have 10 targets to shoot at. They have a 50% chance of aiming at a cop. Chance of successfully hitting a cop is 50% - 8.3%, or 41.7% (chance of aiming at a cop minus chance of doctor save). Now, after the claim, they have a 100% chance of aiming at a cop. The chance of successfully hitting a cop is 100% - 14.3%, or 85.7%.

These numbers are obviously off, since it may not be 7 cops / 6 doctors after claims it may not be 5/5, the doctors aren't evenly spread out, and it doesn't account for the D1 lynch, and it doesn't account for scum figuring out who's a cop through gameplay.  But regardless, the points I think are pretty clear. Claiming cop/doctor increases the chance of a successful N1 doctoring from 8.3% to 14.3% randomly, while it increases the chance of mafia NK'ing a cop from 41.7% to 85.7%. To me, this is absolutely 100% unacceptable.

[faust]

pps, I'm trying my best to understand what you mean, but I just don't. How does everyone claiming Cop or Doc assume that scum won't claim Cop?

The whole point of the idea is that scum will have to fakeclaim. We will either have 7 people claim Cop or 7 people claim Doc. Either way, we will have a list of 7 people that we know for an absolute fact contains at least one scum. Maybe this is pretty minor information, but it's still solid information.

This information is nowhere near useful enough to overcome the disadvantages to scum knowing who the cops are.

Yes but then the Docs know who to protect.

Still agree with Archetype. A successful doc protection is way better for us than a cop result. Plus, if the scum tries to kill off all the cops, guess who remains: The scum that fake-claimed cop. So they're putting themselves in a position where killing off the town threats means exposing themselves.

[faust]

But it's still likely to be unsuccessful. Assume 1 doctor / night for simplicity. Assume 5 cops, 5 doctors. N1, doc1 has to choose between probably 7 targets (assuming 2 scum fakeclaim cop and 1 scum fakeclaim doctor, but whatever, if it's the other way the analysis is mostly the same). That's a 1/7 chance of protecting the night kill (since doctor could very well protect scum). Before the claim, doctor had 1/12 chance of protecting the night kill.

So, doctor odds have improved from 1/12 to 1/7. That's going from 8.3% to 14.3%.

Meanwhile, without any claims, scum have 10 targets to shoot at. They have a 50% chance of aiming at a cop. Chance of successfully hitting a cop is 50% - 8.3%, or 41.7% (chance of aiming at a cop minus chance of doctor save). Now, after the claim, they have a 100% chance of aiming at a cop. The chance of successfully hitting a cop is 100% - 14.3%, or 85.7%.

These numbers are obviously off, since it may not be 7 cops / 6 doctors after claims it may not be 5/5, the doctors aren't evenly spread out, and it doesn't account for the D1 lynch, and it doesn't account for scum figuring out who's a cop through gameplay.  But regardless, the points I think are pretty clear. Claiming cop/doctor increases the chance of a successful N1 doctoring from 8.3% to 14.3% randomly, while it increases the chance of mafia NK'ing a cop from 41.7% to 85.7%. To me, this is absolutely 100% unacceptable.

A few things:

1. If doc/cop split 6/7, we should probably look at lynching a cop. So when N1 arrives, only 6 targets would remain for the docs.
2. Your analysis is correct for N1, but ignores the fact that the odds increase significantly as the game continues. If scum kills off the cops one by one, the docs are ever more likely to be successful.

But I just thought of a new procedure, and want you to discuss its merits: At the start of every new day, each player answers the question: If my shot would have been tonight, I would have targeted XXX. That way, even if we decide not to claim, we can have all the information there is when someone dies without having to claim.

[Twistedarcher]

pps, I'm trying my best to understand what you mean, but I just don't. How does everyone claiming Cop or Doc assume that scum won't claim Cop?

The whole point of the idea is that scum will have to fakeclaim. We will either have 7 people claim Cop or 7 people claim Doc. Either way, we will have a list of 7 people that we know for an absolute fact contains at least one scum. Maybe this is pretty minor information, but it's still solid information.

This information is nowhere near useful enough to overcome the disadvantages to scum knowing who the cops are.

Yes but then the Docs know who to protect.

Still agree with Archetype. A successful doc protection is way better for us than a cop result. Plus, if the scum tries to kill off all the cops, guess who remains: The scum that fake-claimed cop. So they're putting themselves in a position where killing off the town threats means exposing themselves.

I completely disagree with this point and I'm shocked that it's even up for debate. To me, a cop result is MUCH better than a missing kill, and it's not even close. Like, I'd rather have a successful cop result than TWO successful doctors.

Cop is a stronger role for doctor. Look at C9++ for balancing issues. It has a one-shot cop and a doctor being roughly equivalent and at the same number of letters. Cop is a MUCH stronger role than doctor. Much, much, much stronger.

Can you explain why you think a missing kill is better than a result that AT WORST creates an IC? Yeah, scum can fakeclaim, sure, but they can fakeclaim the IC on a missing kill, as well! And doctors cannot catch scum!

[Twistedarcher]

Like, the main utility of a doctor is in keeping a power role alive, not in trying to maximize the ability to prevent an night kill.

If you're playing as a doctor in a normal game, you're not trying to protect the person you think mafia is most likely to kill. You're trying to protect the person you want to die the least. This is normally a claimed PR that you believe, or someone who's close to IC status, or is an actual IC. Yes, preventing a kill is nice, but I'd argue that keeping PRs alive to do their thing is the #1 priority for doctors.

With that in mind, doctor hunting for scum nightkills is counter-productive. What's the result of killing off doctors, normally? The positive result for scum is that they then have free reign on shooting PRs! The goal of shooting a doctor is to be able to shoot that cop on the next day. Now, in this game, that's impossible, since there's 4-5 more doctors out there. So, you'll never be able to clear the field of doctors, or if you do, it will take so long that you'll never be able to take time to shoot at the cops, who are the real threat to scum.

Scum are not afraid of doctors guessing the scum. Scum are afraid of getting investigated by a cop. They want to kill those cops.

Scum WILL shoot for cops, not for doctors. Therefore, doctor claiming is awful, and narrows down the pool of who scum will shoot. And trust me, scum figured this out pregame, they are not learning anything new from this post.

[Twistedarcher]

A few more things:

1) Your new procedure is only beneficial for figuring out doctor protections, right? I mean, I guess that works out. Since nights aren't included in the flip, though, I'm not sure how beneficial it is (although I guess we need to make sure that each person has a chance to claim their night before they get lynched, in case they are town). I suppose it can't hurt, I guess.

2) I'm very, very, very against lynching someone based on the idea of "Well, there's 7 cops, and 6 doctors, so that's probably 2 scum in cops, so we should lynch there!" That's a situation where scum has perfect information, and town doesn't. They set the agenda there, and can make a favorable situation. Scum WILL outguess us / outmanipulate us there, and I'm not willing to play into that until we've had a bunch of flips to look at.

[Jimmmmm]

TA is making a lot of sense.

PPE 1.

[Jimmmmm]

2) I'm very, very, very against lynching someone based on the idea of "Well, there's 7 cops, and 6 doctors, so that's probably 2 scum in cops, so we should lynch there!" That's a situation where scum has perfect information, and town doesn't. They set the agenda there, and can make a favorable situation. Scum WILL outguess us / outmanipulate us there, and I'm not willing to play into that until we've had a bunch of flips to look at.

We definitely don't want to assume anything like 2 scum in Cops, 1 scum in Docs. Scum are just as likely to all claim the same as they are to split 2/1.

[Voltaire]

What TA said.

[faust]

I completely disagree with this point and I'm shocked that it's even up for debate. To me, a cop result is MUCH better than a missing kill, and it's not even close. Like, I'd rather have a successful cop result than TWO successful doctors.

Cop is a stronger role for doctor. Look at C9++ for balancing issues. It has a one-shot cop and a doctor being roughly equivalent and at the same number of letters. Cop is a MUCH stronger role than doctor. Much, much, much stronger.

Can you explain why you think a missing kill is better than a result that AT WORST creates an IC? Yeah, scum can fakeclaim, sure, but they can fakeclaim the IC on a missing kill, as well! And doctors cannot catch scum!

I don't get it. A successful doc gives an IC as well, because the targeted person is confirmed not scum (well, almost). AND and prevents a night death. Cops are only better if they investigate scum. Now obviously, cops are much more reliant at getting results in than docs are at blocking NKs. I hve never said that doc is a stronger role than cop.

[faust]

A few more things:

1) Your new procedure is only beneficial for figuring out doctor protections, right? I mean, I guess that works out. Since nights aren't included in the flip, though, I'm not sure how beneficial it is (although I guess we need to make sure that each person has a chance to claim their night before they get lynched, in case they are town). I suppose it can't hurt, I guess.

Oh, I missed the part that the nights don't flip. Well, in that case, it's a lot less useful of course.

[yuma]

I am with TA, I believe. I think here... no claiming doc or cop... but I really like the idea of having every player in the first post of a day say who they would have investigated had they been a cop the previous night.

I like it two-fold... it forces scum to commit to something early and it is useful to get town results from cops w/o them needing to claim...

basically i think the only claiming that should be done all game is cops with scum results. no claiming any other time, including at L-1.

[Twistedarcher]

I completely disagree with this point and I'm shocked that it's even up for debate. To me, a cop result is MUCH better than a missing kill, and it's not even close. Like, I'd rather have a successful cop result than TWO successful doctors.

Cop is a stronger role for doctor. Look at C9++ for balancing issues. It has a one-shot cop and a doctor being roughly equivalent and at the same number of letters. Cop is a MUCH stronger role than doctor. Much, much, much stronger.

Can you explain why you think a missing kill is better than a result that AT WORST creates an IC? Yeah, scum can fakeclaim, sure, but they can fakeclaim the IC on a missing kill, as well! And doctors cannot catch scum!

I don't get it. A successful doc gives an IC as well, because the targeted person is confirmed not scum (well, almost). AND and prevents a night death. Cops are only better if they investigate scum. Now obviously, cops are much more reliant at getting results in than docs are at blocking NKs. I hve never said that doc is a stronger role than cop.

But cops, at worst, generate an IC, and at best, catch scum. Docs, most of the time, will do absolutely nothing.

[yuma]

I completely disagree with this point and I'm shocked that it's even up for debate. To me, a cop result is MUCH better than a missing kill, and it's not even close. Like, I'd rather have a successful cop result than TWO successful doctors.

Cop is a stronger role for doctor. Look at C9++ for balancing issues. It has a one-shot cop and a doctor being roughly equivalent and at the same number of letters. Cop is a MUCH stronger role than doctor. Much, much, much stronger.

Can you explain why you think a missing kill is better than a result that AT WORST creates an IC? Yeah, scum can fakeclaim, sure, but they can fakeclaim the IC on a missing kill, as well! And doctors cannot catch scum!

I don't get it. A successful doc gives an IC as well, because the targeted person is confirmed not scum (well, almost).

unless there are two+ docs with the same night or mafia elected to not kill (less likely, but conceivable if you are going to give out ICness for this)

[Robz888]

Very behind, sorry! Will catch up when I can.