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[skip wooznum]

P.S.
One problem with the town!faust narrative is that there were no thefts reported last night. If the steal power is factional, there is no reason for it to have stopped with joth's death.

It could be that scum has a choice to steal or graverob (much like Joseph) and last night chose to graverob. I'll have to think about how much I like that explanation.

Or it could be that each scum can do only one thing. So last night with 2 scum alive, one had to kill and one had to rope. Nobody left to perform the steal.

[skip wooznum]

@eevee (and adk and faust), can you read D4 and tell me what you think of Scola? I get a bunch of signals both ways, and want your opinion(s).

will do later tonight!

aight well I've got no access starting ~8 pm forum time and going till deadline. So the sooner the better. No pressure.

really hard for me too se anyone but mailmi as the lynch here. of couese you likely wont be here to help us figure it out tomorrow if that's correct (and town is pretty much done if it isnt)

No, I'm more or less convinced mail-mi should be today's lynch as well. Your investigation tonight will help us figure out who should be the lynch tomorrow. I'm just afraid I'll be dead tomorrow, so I'm trying to get all my thoughts in now. And other people's opinions might help me figure out my own.

[Eevee]

I'll likely vote joth, but want to reread first. If joth is scum, does that make faust suspicious too? joth gave him codebook and notebook (via Mix) and then faust says what joth says is true.

I'm thinking scum could be joth, faust, and skip.

I prefer skip to mail-mil because mail-mi claimed a sailor role with details first, then skip said "me too". If mail-mi were lying what are the chances he guessed exactly skip's role. Though I guess the role could be the same, just different factions.

OK, so I'll need to think which of those two.

scola's first pot after my claim, very scummy, especially if skip is town and mailmi scum.

Also, note that this makes scola and me basically confirmed town, because we could have unvoted and hoped Joseph would join us as scum if what Joth says is true.

Got to disagree with sudgy here, seems awfully risky for scum who is still in a  great spot even with joth gone to out themselves completely hoping a 3rd party faction will help them. But it's a point toward scola's towniness that he votes for joth here.

also notable that mailmi defended joth until the confession.

I think mail-mi and faust, but less sure about those.  Faust still hasn't explained why he posted items he wanted D1, and since skip/mail-mi are now basically confirmed to be town vs scum, it makes faust vs LaLight more likely to be town vs scum as well.

some more parting thoughts from sudgy, may he rest in peace.

I think mail-mi and faust, but less sure about those.  Faust still hasn't explained why he posted items he wanted D1, and since skip/mail-mi are now basically confirmed to be town vs scum, it makes faust vs LaLight more likely to be town vs scum as well.

why mail-mi over skip? I've been thinking it's been skip, but not nearly as sure anymore.

I do think the extra vote after I hammered is suspiciously trying to get town cred.

might be veering towards confirmation bias, but scola having town cred in the forefront is not a towny state of mind after a hammer.

I'm assuming faust is scum pawnbroker, mail-mi/skip are the town/scum sailors, and ADK is the scum graverobber.

I'm sold. Skip/Faust/adk. I've been scumreading ADK since day2.

mailmi townreading scola




end of day4, i'll post this so i dont lose it and do day5 as well.

[Eevee]

Honestly what's bugging me is, if mail-mi was scum with the rope, why would he blow his cover and block eevee? The risk/reward just doesn't add up. People were more or less willing to swallow that him and me were t and t, as evidenced by the fact that we're both still alive. Using the rope to block eevee would confirm that one of us is scum. And who knows if eevee is even doing anything worth blocking? I feel like I'm missing something.

maybe scum has some owl pieces they've been lying about and were worried I'd cop them? Something's up with the owl pieces, as scum decided to switch to Joseph last night. There's so much we are in the dark about of the mechanics compared to joseph and mafia.

[Eevee]

One of mail-mi or skip is scum (and where we should probably lynch today if we're not lynching joseph) and the other's probably town. After that I think I'd vote faust over scola

ADK has been notably non-committal about mailmi vs skip. Otherwise I think his play fits for apathetic town or lurky scum that doesn't want to rock the boat and ruin a good thing.

[Eevee]

@faust, best guess, who are the bad guys?

As of now, having reread only D1, I'm thinking Eevee>scola>ADK.

I've also realized something I really should have thought of before though - skip is definitely town. I mean the whole affair with him giving the codebook to joth doesn't make sense if they are both scum.

So Vote: mail-mi is the best thing for today I think.

faust, has your stance changed from this?

my takeaway from the reread is that faust is townier and scola scummier, adk more or less the same. i'm basically operating from the pov of mailmi being scum and skip town, i'll of course update if it doesn't turn out thay way but it feels we are likely lost in that case anyway so it's more convenient this way.

[Eevee]

I will inherit their powers and win condition (unless it would make it impossible for me to win). I was tols nothing more, and all the info I've received about treasure hunters have come from joseph in this thread and joths flip.

Wait uh... this is pretty relevant. Can you find out any more about which circumstances would make it impossible for you to win? Like, if Joseph dies with a piece of the bird on them, and there are no more Graverobber, would you stay town? And what if there are only scum Graverobbers?

I know that you probably cannot ask that specifically, but maybe you can try some more general questions.

I made some inquiries about this, haven't hears back.

[Eevee]

if mailmi is scum, this is very suspicious of scola - the tide is turning towards a mailmi lynch, scola tries to frame it as a 50-50 (while us pushing it obviously think it's a better chance based on their play and our reads) and redirecting us towards faust

[Eevee]

So, while it is odd that scum decided to out they have a sailor, I think that's still the most likely explanation. Maybe they role-copped me, maybe they were able to figure out something more about the owl pieces (Joseph is still not telling us everything is  a pretty safe bet).

Third sailor seems like a more convoluted explanation to me. I'm also firmly in the camp that there are only two mafia left and joth was just bluffing yesterday (a very on brand thing for him to do).

[mail-mi]

What can I do to convince people to not lynch me? I mean, if joth was telling the truth, y'all lynch me and town loses. 

[faust]

What can I do to convince people to not lynch me? I mean, if joth was telling the truth, y'all lynch me and town loses.

You can present a cohesive narrative for a third Sailor, and tell us who that is.

[faust]

@faust, best guess, who are the bad guys?

As of now, having reread only D1, I'm thinking Eevee>scola>ADK.

I've also realized something I really should have thought of before though - skip is definitely town. I mean the whole affair with him giving the codebook to joth doesn't make sense if they are both scum.

So Vote: mail-mi is the best thing for today I think.

faust, has your stance changed from this?

my takeaway from the reread is that faust is townier and scola scummier, adk more or less the same. i'm basically operating from the pov of mailmi being scum and skip town, i'll of course update if it doesn't turn out thay way but it feels we are likely lost in that case anyway so it's more convenient this way.

I have some mild worries that scolapasta is a third Sailor hiding in the dark. But then again, mail-mi is pretty scummy, maybe I'm just paranoid.

[mail-mi]

What can I do to convince people to not lynch me? I mean, if joth was telling the truth, y'all lynch me and town loses.

You can present a cohesive narrative for a third Sailor, and tell us who that is.

I think it has to be either ADK or scola, our two claimed GTs. I think they're both scum, and either they're scum by themselves (with a third Sailor) or skip with them. I think Eevee is what he says he is, and you have been pretty towny today.

Let me go scrounge up a reread of ADK and scola.

Here's a question to all: How did scum know Eevee had the rope? I think we've established that stealing comes before giving in the night action order, so scumone (new word, I'm coining it) had to know that Eevee had the rope. Or maybe they just got lucky.

[mail-mi]

Rereading ADK, day 1 (I've got some work to do, so I'm setting my goal low right now):

He's the first one to suggest the item claiming plan that created this 1v1 mess. Could he have discussed that in a scum QT prior to game? Maybe, but I think it's pretty NAI.

His first serious vote of the game is on joth, which is a little towny, though it could be a early-d1-bus for towncred.

Then he spends most of the rest of the day pushing for the 1v1 (Specifically, me for the 1v1). If skip flips scum, I would look directly at ADK for a partner.

That's the end of D1, and I'm not quite sure what to think yet. Not very scummy, not very townie.

[skip wooznum]

@Scola, sorry if I missed this somewhere, what did you do with the magnifying glass?

[skip wooznum]

@Joseph, did you start the game with an item? If so, what item, and where is it now?

[skip wooznum]

So what do people think about who was able to steal? i.e. I don't think joth could N1, since he flipped goon.

The stealing is maybe the single thing in this game that I've contemplated the most. I think what makes it so confusing for me is that there is no clear place for my train of thought to begin. But I can try to organize my thoughts on this, as it's something I've wanted to do since the beginning of the day. Let's start with the facts.
1)Didds claims she was stolen from on N1. (Bullet)
2)Joth claims he was stolen from on N2. (Owl torso)
3)adk claims he was stolen from on N3, but he had nothing that could be stolen.
4)Joseph claims responsibility for points 1-3.
(These first four points are pretty simple and more or less take care of themselves without further explanation. Now we get to the good stuff.)

5)eevee claims he was stolen from on N1. (Rope)
6)faust claims he was stolen from on N2. (Owl wings)
7)Joseph claims he was stolen from on N3. (Owl torso I think but can't find it now.)
Joth is found (by eevee) to have the owl wings N2.
9)Joth flips goon treasure hunter.
10)Joth only became treasure hunter after N1.
11)faust claims recruited treasure hunters do not recieve stealing abilities.
12)eevee claims being roped N3, nobody claims being roped N2. (This is relevant indirectly.)
13)joth gives mix the notebook N2.

Did I miss any facts?

Now that that's done, we can start thinking up what ways we have of explaining everything.

(Hopefully) to be continued.

Made some corrections in bold. Left the emoji as is. Added a fact

So in analyzing this stuff, I think the first things to consider are the two claims by faust (6 and 11). If faust is town, then he's telling the truth about those things. That would mean that joth stole from him N2, and despite being a treasure hunter, joth had no special stealing privileges. It seems to me that the only explanation (tell me if you have another)  is some sort of factional stealing ability, similar to the factional nk. That fits pretty well, and also answers the question of, how could thief!joth have stolen the rope N1 and given it to the scum!sailor N2, if he was busy giving the notebook to mix on N2? The answer, of course, is somebody other than joth used the factional steal N1. So all that works out, I think. The next thing to consider would be, did joth lie to his mates about the owl? I was bothered earlier by the fact that joth chose to steal from faust N2 when he already knew that Joseph had an owl piece. It could be that scum has some type of itemcop or owlcop and knew faust had an owl piece. If scum were owl hunting, joth either lied, or there's some other use that mafia had for the owl. But the explanation might be simpler. Maybe Joth wasn't going for owl pieces at all. He couldn't justify owl hunting to his scum buddies. Faust was confirmed in thread to have an unidentified item of some sort, so the mafia targeted him, without specifically aiming for the owl. All of this looks pretty internally consistent, and a viable narrative to explain everything. (And the only viable narrative that has a town!faust.)

Next, we'll explore a scum!faust world.

Questions? Comments? Points you disagree with?
Let me know.   

(Hopefully) to be continued.

Alright let's keep analyzing the stealing. (I'm becoming increasingly suspicious that nobody else is interested in this, but I think it's still worthwhile for my own benefit.)

So, the other road to go down is that faust is scum. This would mean he's almost definitely lying about being robbed N2. Why/how would scum rob scum? So, he probably just gave the wings to joth, then. That's pretty weird because N1 faust offers to trade the wings to town!mix, and then N2 he decides to give it to his scumbuddy? Why not do that right away N1? I guess it's possible that joth only wanted the owl after he got the notebook N1, so on N1 faust and the scumteam had no use for the owl yet. Then starting N2 joth lies to scum about why he needs the owl, or there is some other use scum had for the owl. What's unclear though, is this: if scum didn't steal from faust, from whom did they steal, and especially, if they were going for the owl, why not steal from Joseph? They stole from Joseph N3 (at least if we take Joseph's word for it, which I do, mostly), why not steal from him N2?
@Joseph, are you like 1-shot theft proof, or something?

Long story short, I think there are more holes in the scum!faust narrative than in the town!faust one. But neither is impossible.

I think I'm done meditating on the thefts, so we can all breathe a sigh of relief.

[skip wooznum]

Joseph, did you receive part of a useful item last night?

I received an item yes

What makes you think that it would be useful to me?

I don't want to say too much yet, but given what you said you wanted, I was thinking what I had was a part of it.  I was going to say that if it was useful, anybody else who has a similar part should probably give it to you.  But if it's not, then it doesn't matter.

Okay without saying too much, yes you're correct, it was partially helpful (as I'm looking for something with multiple pieces)

This is Joseph on D2 more or less openly claiming he has a statue piece. Easy target for scum if they want it.

[skip wooznum]

Honestly what's bugging me is, if mail-mi was scum with the rope, why would he blow his cover and block eevee? The risk/reward just doesn't add up. People were more or less willing to swallow that him and me were t and t, as evidenced by the fact that we're both still alive. Using the rope to block eevee would confirm that one of us is scum. And who knows if eevee is even doing anything worth blocking? I feel like I'm missing something.

maybe scum has some owl pieces they've been lying about and were worried I'd cop them? Something's up with the owl pieces, as scum decided to switch to Joseph last night. There's so much we are in the dark about of the mechanics compared to joseph and mafia.

You keep saying things that imply that scum knew you were a cop when they blocked you. I honestly don't know what to make of this. It's just a strange mistake to continually make and I don't know why you're doing it and it's making me nervous. Stop making me nervous. Thx.

[skip wooznum]

I'm mostly done saying stuff, just a few snag tidbits left.

vote: LaLight

Mostly because (A) we need a wagon today and (B) I am ridiculously sure MiX is town and I like his reasoning, and faust is generally a strong player who I’m also townreading, though less strongly, so this seems like the right place to sheep. If I have time to do some rereading of LaLight of my own I’ll do that today.

This post, which comes immediately after faust's (look it up) vote on LaLight, looks very unpartnery to me. Way to blatant a sheeping of faust if they're actually partners.

[skip wooznum]

I'm mostly done saying stuff, just a few small tidbits left.

vote: LaLight

Mostly because (A) we need a wagon today and (B) I am ridiculously sure MiX is town and I like his reasoning, and faust is generally a strong player who I’m also townreading, though less strongly, so this seems like the right place to sheep. If I have time to do some rereading of LaLight of my own I’ll do that today.

This post, which comes immediately after faust's (look it up) vote on LaLight, looks very unpartnery to me. Way to blatant a sheeping of faust if they're actually partners.

ebwop. Sometimes I don't know how this happens....

[skip wooznum]

Partners, I think that you should do the plan tonight that I suggested doing last night.

This post (unlike the one trying to convince Joseph to join the bad guys) does not really read like a bluff. It therefore gives a slight indication as to who the scumteam is. Would joth give this message in-thread if faust were on his team? I think he'd probably just trust faust to make the right decision concerning whatever this plan is that he's talking about. I know, wine and stuff, but whatever, it's worth pointing out.

[skip wooznum]

@Scola, sorry if I missed this somewhere, what did you do with the magnifying glass?

nvm, found it at beginning of D4. you gave it to sudgy.

[scolapasta]

Lots to respond to, but I don't have that much time (partner's birthday tomrrow) so I'll see what I can get to here. (and will be on later, at least for some short times to post quick thoughts).

Yes, gave to sudgy, no one claiming they needed it, felt safe giving to someone I read as towny.

You mention the stealing."(I'm becoming increasingly suspicious that nobody else is interested in this, but I think it's still worthwhile for my own benefit.)"

I'm fairly certain I mentioned the stealing a while back, let me see if I can find it: Here it is:

So what do people think about who was able to steal? i.e. I don't think joth could N1, since he flipped goon.

Because I 100% agree with you that there's some weirdness going on here. So thank you for your detailed post on what was claimed stolen and when.

I really don't see why scumapasta would push the 1v1 each day. (unless there's a 3rd sailior, but I've basically discounted that idea). I think that and D4 speak to my being town.

when I said skip vs mail-mi was 50-50, do note that meant a change in the direction of mail-mi. I had been leaning more towards skip until it was pointed out that that would mean scum would've started with both codebook and notebook. BTW, my still unanswered question to the mod (no worries, I know you're busy) was to ask if item distribution was random?

Assuming it's not, I'd be ok with a mail-mi lynch today. I do think the fact above and skip's desire to remind people of the stealing push me in that direction.

It is possible that faust is not scum. I do think it's unlikely.

Am I the only one who things joth giving the codebook / notebook to faust (via Mix) and then faust lying about it (saying on one day joth is telling the truth, and then doling out new info* the next day) quite suspicious? I don't see a valid reason not to expose that the day he got the items. (if true, it would be good info to know more about Joseph's true role, and it would show that Joth was lying, and add to his scuminess factor)

So while I do still more strongly about faust and prefer that, I am currently off the fence on skip / mail-mi. I would love to get an answer to my question on items before we vote, but if I don't I'll assume non random. And that points to mail-mi. I could go with that another day.

[scolapasta]

Partners, I think that you should do the plan tonight that I suggested doing last night.

This post (unlike the one trying to convince Joseph to join the bad guys) does not really read like a bluff. It therefore gives a slight indication as to who the scumteam is. Would joth give this message in-thread if faust were on his team? I think he'd probably just trust faust to make the right decision concerning whatever this plan is that he's talking about. I know, wine and stuff, but whatever, it's worth pointing out.

This definitely feels like confirmation bias.