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[Witherweaver]

To Jimmmmm:

Ichi claimed at L-1 (right?) on Day 2.  He could likely have been the lynch.  Now

But in the case of Row 3, [...] The four claims would then be BP, JK, Bodyguard and Psychologist, and there are no possible setups which have a Psychologist and two of the others - the only possible setup with these four claims is Row 3, which excludes Psychologist.

This is true, but it requires some thinking about the setup.  Is it possible he just looked at all the PR's that weren't on Row 3 U Column 3, that is, {Watcher, Goon Cop, Psychologist}, and picked one?  Out of these three, psychologist has the advantage that he doesn't really need to "clear" people; it's not as accountable.  He gets "can't kill" and the turn up Mafia or SK, well, maybe they had already killed.

I think your argument requires optimal play.  Honestly, if I was coming up with a fake claim, there's a good chance I might not choose carefully enough.

From you it's certainly Silver vs. Ichi.  Your argument implies Ichi couldn't have claimed what he did as scum, so it has to be Silver.  Is there another reason you think it's Silver (besides the opportunistic fear of having 3 IC's)?

For the rest of us, we have no reason to believe Jimmmm is confirmed, right?

If it isn't clear, I'm operating under the assumption that all town PR's have claimed, so there aren't two liars in the set of four claimers. 

[Witherweaver]

I don't understand why we are lynching from the PR pool. Let me lay out my reasoning again.

1) Even in the no SK scenario, the VT pool and the PR pool have one scum each, so neither is inherently better.
2) In the SK scenario, the VT pool is twice as likely to hit scum
3) While there's a lack of consensus on whether Ichi or Silver is scum in the PR pool, there seems to be pretty good agreement that Eevee is the partner (or the SK).
4) A PR mislynch here kills a PR, a VT mislynch kills a VT. Obviously the latter is preferable.

So it seems to me there are 4 good reasons to lynch Eevee and no good reasons (except I suppose information) to lynch a PR claim. Yet everyone is voting Ichi. Why?

vote: Eevee

Well, I believe that if Ichi is scum, he's a Roleblocker.  So there's that.

[faust]

I think Eevee is scum, and that he's fine with the lynch of his partner. he's in a bad spot, doing this might save him.

but even if you don't like ash's analysis, you can't really deny that the points he is making is valid. i mean, it's not really a matter of opinion.

No, Eevee lynching his partner here is a losing move. We lynch the Traitor, you block Eevee, we lynch Eevee, game over. Thinking that you wouldn't block him is pretty ridiculous. I don't believe in the Ichi/Eevee scum team.

I think he's right about the fact that Jimmmmmm is town. But I'm not seeing the argument for Ichi over you. Jimmmmm has pointed out why Traitor!Ichi claiming there doesn't make sense. Now one can say he didn't think it through, but by the same token, one can say you are scum and didn't think it through.

[Eevee]

when I flip VT, you don't know anything new and you still have to pick from the claimants.

[Eevee]

I obviously dont mind being jailkept.

[faust]

acutally wait, does eevee even know that it is his partner if he is the goon? i think traitor knew mafia, not the other way. then it doesn't even matter.

Eevee would know which setup we're in, right? (At least up to SK/no SK) I didn't go through it, but I think a mafia Goon should be able to find out who the fake claimant is.

[Witherweaver]

I think Eevee is scum, and that he's fine with the lynch of his partner. he's in a bad spot, doing this might save him.

but even if you don't like ash's analysis, you can't really deny that the points he is making is valid. i mean, it's not really a matter of opinion.

No, Eevee lynching his partner here is a losing move. We lynch the Traitor, you block Eevee, we lynch Eevee, game over. Thinking that you wouldn't block him is pretty ridiculous. I don't believe in the Ichi/Eevee scum team.

I think he's right about the fact that Jimmmmmm is town. But I'm not seeing the argument for Ichi over you. Jimmmmm has pointed out why Traitor!Ichi claiming there doesn't make sense. Now one can say he didn't think it through, but by the same token, one can say you are scum and didn't think it through.

Does Eevee know Ichi is his partner?  He doesn't know more than we do in this scenario, correct?

PPE: Okay, you addressed that question.. I have to check, but I think he may not.

[faust]

I guess I'll wait and see what others whom I find townier think. Letting silver get away with this is simply unbelievable. I'm sure you'll lynch him after my flip, but you'll be down town a strong town PR (admittedly less strong later in the game). Also, now that you've decided that either me or silver is scum, who do you think each of our partner's would be?

The question here is actually quite interesting, really. People on the Ichi wagon, who do you think his partner is? Do you think it's Eevee? Because that makes no sense to me.

If Ichi is scum, he's very likely the Traitor.  So he didn't have a "partner"; Hydrad did. 

Why doesn't Eevee/Hydrad + Ichi make sense?

But Traitor knows mafia in that scenario, no?

[jotheonah]

I think Eevee is scum, and that he's fine with the lynch of his partner. he's in a bad spot, doing this might save him.

but even if you don't like ash's analysis, you can't really deny that the points he is making is valid. i mean, it's not really a matter of opinion.

No, Eevee lynching his partner here is a losing move. We lynch the Traitor, you block Eevee, we lynch Eevee, game over. Thinking that you wouldn't block him is pretty ridiculous. I don't believe in the Ichi/Eevee scum team.

I think he's right about the fact that Jimmmmmm is town. But I'm not seeing the argument for Ichi over you. Jimmmmm has pointed out why Traitor!Ichi claiming there doesn't make sense. Now one can say he didn't think it through, but by the same token, one can say you are scum and didn't think it through.

Look at that. His bus is already working.

[Witherweaver]

I guess I'll wait and see what others whom I find townier think. Letting silver get away with this is simply unbelievable. I'm sure you'll lynch him after my flip, but you'll be down town a strong town PR (admittedly less strong later in the game). Also, now that you've decided that either me or silver is scum, who do you think each of our partner's would be?

The question here is actually quite interesting, really. People on the Ichi wagon, who do you think his partner is? Do you think it's Eevee? Because that makes no sense to me.

If Ichi is scum, he's very likely the Traitor.  So he didn't have a "partner"; Hydrad did. 

Why doesn't Eevee/Hydrad + Ichi make sense?

But Traitor knows mafia in that scenario, no?

Okay, so you're saying Mafia team of Eevee+Hydrad get no add ons and are both Goons, so they know they must be in a "Traitor Knows Mafia" setup.  They can therefore deduce Ichi must be lying and therefore is the Traitor.

[faust]

Well, let's see. If TKM, then mafia has no special powers and thus must know that it's TKM. There are 2 TKM scenarios; 1 includes a 1-shot BP. So the mafia we're in TKM/SK, and knows Ichi is lying. So if you're going for Eevee/Ichi, you'll have to swallow the fact that Eevee is knowingly voting his partner, when a mislynch today is the only way he has a chance to win.

PPE 2

[Eevee]

Read my posts today, I think you'll deduce I don't know what setup we are in.

[Eevee]

I can make a promise to not move my vote today in any circumstances if it makes you believe me that I really really really want to lynch IG.

[jotheonah]

Well, let's see. If TKM, then mafia has no special powers and thus must know that it's TKM. There are 2 TKM scenarios; 1 includes a 1-shot BP. So the mafia we're in TKM/SK, and knows Ichi is lying. So if you're going for Eevee/Ichi, you'll have to swallow the fact that Eevee is knowingly voting his partner, when a mislynch today is the only way he has a chance to win.

PPE 2

I absolutely buy that. Is it a risky bus? Yep. Is it working if it gets you to vote for silver instead of Eevee? Yep. Is Eevee good at mafia? Yep.

[Witherweaver]

Read my posts today, I think you'll deduce I don't know what setup we are in.

Wait how do you know?

[faust]

Look at that. His bus is already working.

We can still have him jailkept. There is no way he gets out of this, as there is no way (I believe) Eevee gets out of this.

Which of course doesn't mean that Eevee must be town. He could easily be say, silver's partner.

[faust]

Well, let's see. If TKM, then mafia has no special powers and thus must know that it's TKM. There are 2 TKM scenarios; 1 includes a 1-shot BP. So the mafia we're in TKM/SK, and knows Ichi is lying. So if you're going for Eevee/Ichi, you'll have to swallow the fact that Eevee is knowingly voting his partner, when a mislynch today is the only way he has a chance to win.

PPE 2

I absolutely buy that. Is it a risky bus? Yep. Is it working if it gets you to vote for silver instead of Eevee? Yep. Is Eevee good at mafia? Yep.

Well... I'm fine with vote: Eevee. I prefer silver, but not sure that's happening.

[Witherweaver]

Well, let's see. If TKM, then mafia has no special powers and thus must know that it's TKM. There are 2 TKM scenarios; 1 includes a 1-shot BP. So the mafia we're in TKM/SK, and knows Ichi is lying. So if you're going for Eevee/Ichi, you'll have to swallow the fact that Eevee is knowingly voting his partner, when a mislynch today is the only way he has a chance to win.

PPE 2

I absolutely buy that. Is it a risky bus? Yep. Is it working if it gets you to vote for silver instead of Eevee? Yep. Is Eevee good at mafia? Yep.

Well... I'm fine with vote: Eevee. I prefer silver, but not sure that's happening.

Look at that. His bus is already working.

We can still have him jailkept. There is no way he gets out of this, as there is no way (I believe) Eevee gets out of this.

Which of course doesn't mean that Eevee must be town. He could easily be say, silver's partner.

Silver/Eevee makes sense?  Silver fake claims to Jailkeep his partner when there's no kill?  And isn't Silver calling for Eevee's lynch?

[Witherweaver]

I was going to do Joth's Detective claim, and I still might, but it just seems so incredibly unlikely that it's a lie unless he's supporting another fake claim...

If it's Setup #1, both Ichi and Silver are lying.
If it's Setup #4, Silver is lying.
If it's Setup #6, Jimmmmm is lying.
If it's Setup #7, Ichi is lying.

Ichi and Silver get 50% chance of lying, Jimmmm gets 25%.

I'll note that if it's Setup #1, the Goon Cop hasn't claimed, and that's ludicrious.

So really, 33.3% chance for each of them.

But then, if Jimmmmm is lying, so is Ichi, and we're missing claims.

So to me, it's 50% Ichi or Silver.

And based on my analysis, Ichi's the Traitor fakeclaiming or Silver was trying to out the real JK who doesn't exist.

vote: ichimaru gin

I am missing this.  Why does Jimmm lying => Ichi lying?  Jimmm lying puts us in a setup where we have Psych, Detective, Jailkeeper, right?

[Witherweaver]

For clarity:

Liar	Town PR1	Town PR2	Town PR3	Mafia Addon	SK?
Ichimaru (Psychologist)	1-Shot Commuter	Jailkeeper	Detective	Traitor Knows Mafia	Yes
Silverspawn (Jailkeeper)	1-Shot Commuter	Psychologist	Detective	Traitor Knows Mafia	No
Jimmmmm (1-Shot Commuter)	Detective	Jailkeeper	Psychologist	Mafia Knows Traitor	Yes

[Witherweaver]

Well, of interest, the only case where there is NOT an SK is Silverspawn lying.  Silverspawn Roleblocks Joth?  Jailkeeping is part Roleblocking, so maybe it's a sensible fake claim to make.

What claims were outed when Silver claimed Jailkeeper?  Well... Ichi had already claimed Psych.  If Silver is Traitor, he knew what setup we were in on Day 2.

[Witherweaver]

Maybe Eevee is not Silver's partner and Silver was just shot.  Everyone thought he was not Mafia anyway.. the consensus (more or less) was if he was scum, then he was SK.  So we wouldn't be lynching him until after Mafia.  So good night kill target?  Maybe.

[faust]

Well, let's see. If TKM, then mafia has no special powers and thus must know that it's TKM. There are 2 TKM scenarios; 1 includes a 1-shot BP. So the mafia we're in TKM/SK, and knows Ichi is lying. So if you're going for Eevee/Ichi, you'll have to swallow the fact that Eevee is knowingly voting his partner, when a mislynch today is the only way he has a chance to win.

PPE 2

I absolutely buy that. Is it a risky bus? Yep. Is it working if it gets you to vote for silver instead of Eevee? Yep. Is Eevee good at mafia? Yep.

Well... I'm fine with vote: Eevee. I prefer silver, but not sure that's happening.

Look at that. His bus is already working.

We can still have him jailkept. There is no way he gets out of this, as there is no way (I believe) Eevee gets out of this.

Which of course doesn't mean that Eevee must be town. He could easily be say, silver's partner.

Silver/Eevee makes sense?  Silver fake claims to Jailkeep his partner when there's no kill?  And isn't Silver calling for Eevee's lynch?

It would be a move to get one of them lynched so that the other one can get lots of towncred. Maybe Goon!Eevee recruited Traitor!silver, and they decided to get something out of the missing nightkill.

[Witherweaver]

Well, let's see. If TKM, then mafia has no special powers and thus must know that it's TKM. There are 2 TKM scenarios; 1 includes a 1-shot BP. So the mafia we're in TKM/SK, and knows Ichi is lying. So if you're going for Eevee/Ichi, you'll have to swallow the fact that Eevee is knowingly voting his partner, when a mislynch today is the only way he has a chance to win.

PPE 2

I absolutely buy that. Is it a risky bus? Yep. Is it working if it gets you to vote for silver instead of Eevee? Yep. Is Eevee good at mafia? Yep.

Well... I'm fine with vote: Eevee. I prefer silver, but not sure that's happening.

Look at that. His bus is already working.

We can still have him jailkept. There is no way he gets out of this, as there is no way (I believe) Eevee gets out of this.

Which of course doesn't mean that Eevee must be town. He could easily be say, silver's partner.

Silver/Eevee makes sense?  Silver fake claims to Jailkeep his partner when there's no kill?  And isn't Silver calling for Eevee's lynch?

It would be a move to get one of them lynched so that the other one can get lots of towncred. Maybe Goon!Eevee recruited Traitor!silver, and they decided to get something out of the missing nightkill.

Umm.. they didn't have time to plan this, right?  Silver wouldn't join Eevee until today started, so they wouldn't have chat to coordinate.

[Witherweaver]

I don't see this holding any more than Ichi/Eevee does.  Actually I think it's less likely.