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[Dsell]

I DO NOT believe C_F's claim. I strongly believe that it makes zero sense for a serial killer to claim under any circumstance. If he's serial killer, he has completely aborted any chance that he had to win, and I don't believe that C_F would do that. Robz and tables had both expressed doubt and confusion and it was by no means certain that they would have hammered him.

I believe that there is zero chance that he would claim that if he was actually serial killer so I believe there is a zero chance that he's actually serial killer.

However, that claim makes perfect sense if he's mafia! It buys him another day and the actual serial killer would not abort their own chances by counterclaiming. It buys him at least another day which is very possibly more than enough for him to win! This is an extremely scummy claim and I don't believe it. I'm not going to counterclaim serial killer, not because it will abort my chances of winning but because I'm not the serial killer. However, I see absolutely no reason for him to claim if he's the actual SK and every reason for him to claim if he's mafia.

[Robz888]

I guess if he was actually the Serial Killer he would have waited until he was L-1, perhaps.

[Captain_Frisk]

I guess if he was actually the Serial Killer he would have waited until he was L-1, perhaps.

Are you referring to me?  I was at L-1 - and bullied Glooble into unvoting so that you and Tables couldn't quick hammer.

[Robz888]

I guess if he was actually the Serial Killer he would have waited until he was L-1, perhaps.

Are you referring to me?  I was at L-1 - and bullied Glooble into unvoting so that you and Tables couldn't quick hammer.

Oh that's right.

[Captain_Frisk]

I DO NOT believe C_F's claim. I strongly believe that it makes zero sense for a serial killer to claim under any circumstance. If he's serial killer, he has completely aborted any chance that he had to win, and I don't believe that C_F would do that. Robz and tables had both expressed doubt and confusion and it was by no means certain that they would have hammered him.

I believe that there is zero chance that he would claim that if he was actually serial killer so I believe there is a zero chance that he's actually serial killer.

However, that claim makes perfect sense if he's mafia! It buys him another day and the actual serial killer would not abort their own chances by counterclaiming. It buys him at least another day which is very possibly more than enough for him to win! This is an extremely scummy claim and I don't believe it. I'm not going to counterclaim serial killer, not because it will abort my chances of winning but because I'm not the serial killer. However, I see absolutely no reason for him to claim if he's the actual SK and every reason for him to claim if he's mafia.

So you are sticking with the "I'm a one shot vig and I shot Axxle"?

[Dsell]

Yessir.

[Captain_Frisk]

AAAnd now I can start actually doing analysis. Also size 7 is apparently bigger than I imagined. Oops.

I don't believe Frisk's claim for a second. His night 3 doesn't make sense with the current roles we've been told. DSell would shoot Axxle regardless of if Mafia or town. But DSell could be blocked by mafia roleblocker. Glooble blocked Axxle night 3, which did nothing as he doesn't have a role. So unless the doctor was monumentally stupid, Frisk's story fails.

Robz: Hmm... yes, actually, you make a good point. I overreacted.

Tables - DSell might not have been the shooter (because DSell is the roleblocker who has been blocking me).  His partner could be the shooter - and his partner could have been blocked.  That blocker would be you, or RobZ.

They also could have done the same analysis that I did - and figured that Axxle was scum (who the hell votes for a scenario in which they will be shot).  They figured he was bulletproof SK - and targeted someone else - who was doctored.  When Axxle didn't die - DSell could push for Axxle lynch because - well - he survived.  Worst case - Axxle2 flips town - and DSell is outed as a liar - but he still lived longer than he would have if he was lynched on Day 3 as we were going to do.

[Robz888]

AAAnd now I can start actually doing analysis. Also size 7 is apparently bigger than I imagined. Oops.

I don't believe Frisk's claim for a second. His night 3 doesn't make sense with the current roles we've been told. DSell would shoot Axxle regardless of if Mafia or town. But DSell could be blocked by mafia roleblocker. Glooble blocked Axxle night 3, which did nothing as he doesn't have a role. So unless the doctor was monumentally stupid, Frisk's story fails.

Robz: Hmm... yes, actually, you make a good point. I overreacted.

Tables - DSell might not have been the shooter (because DSell is the roleblocker who has been blocking me).  His partner could be the shooter - and his partner could have been blocked.  That blocker would be you, or RobZ.

If either Tables or I were blockers, the claim would contradict Glooble's and we would have said so.

[Glooble]

Well, I'm AFK for the rest of the night.

I'm going to Vote: Captain Frisk before I go. Nothing that's been said has convinced me otherwise.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 5-4

Captain_Frisk (3): Dsell, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Glooble
Dsell (1): Captain_Frisk

Not voting {2}: Tables, Robz888

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch Deadline: Monday, July 23, at 7:00 a.m. EDT

[Captain_Frisk]

Tables has been very clear that he was not going to massclaim.  I don't even think you should claim.  One of you needs to be protective (doctor or roleblocker)  Whichever one of you it is can see the truth.

[Tables]

So let me get this straight.

DSell blocked you from killing Axxle and nobody (mafia) attempted to kill Axxle, while whatever kill they made was presumably docsaved?

It's... plausible in the most tenuous sense of the word.

Now Frisk is at L-1. I'm very tempted to hammer. I'm about 95% sure he's mafia, and dang, you don't see them odds often. But as long as people are talking maybe something will come up.

[Captain_Frisk]

So let me get this straight.

DSell blocked you from killing Axxle and nobody (mafia) attempted to kill Axxle, while whatever kill they made was presumably docsaved?

It's... plausible in the most tenuous sense of the word.

Now Frisk is at L-1. I'm very tempted to hammer. I'm about 95% sure he's mafia, and dang, you don't see them odds often. But as long as people are talking maybe something will come up.

Take the opposite.

DSell is the serial killer.  My partner (who?) and I roleblocked him.  Who blocked my partner and my kill?  Has to be a doctor right?

[Robz888]

So let me get this straight.

DSell blocked you from killing Axxle and nobody (mafia) attempted to kill Axxle, while whatever kill they made was presumably docsaved?

It's... plausible in the most tenuous sense of the word.

Now Frisk is at L-1. I'm very tempted to hammer. I'm about 95% sure he's mafia, and dang, you don't see them odds often. But as long as people are talking maybe something will come up.

The only think I'm sure of is that both the mafia and the real Serial Killer have already voted.

[Tables]

Since numbers are so down though, I'd like to say, if I die during the night, I still view SFS as the most likely town, Glooble I think I can believe, but could easily see him lying, Robz I trust more than DSell and Frisk is about to die so, eh. If Frisk flips town we've probably lost (and he's made a ridiculous claim), if he flips SK we still probably have but... good luck to Glooble, Robz or myself, whichever happen to have protective/preventative roles of some kind (I have no intent to deny or confirm whether I have those now, but I think it's clear us three are the ones who might as everyone else has claimed).

Which brings me nicely to: Frisk - yes, your point?

[Captain_Frisk]

Since numbers are so down though, I'd like to say, if I die during the night, I still view SFS as the most likely town, Glooble I think I can believe, but could easily see him lying, Robz I trust more than DSell and Frisk is about to die so, eh. If Frisk flips town we've probably lost (and he's made a ridiculous claim), if he flips SK we still probably have but... good luck to Glooble, Robz or myself, whichever happen to have protective/preventative roles of some kind (I have no intent to deny or confirm whether I have those now, but I think it's clear us three are the ones who might as everyone else has claimed).

Which brings me nicely to: Frisk - yes, your point?

My point is that you just claimed my theory as implausible - but the other theory is equally implausible - and yet you are 95% sure?!?!?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

So let me get this straight.

DSell blocked you from killing Axxle and nobody (mafia) attempted to kill Axxle, while whatever kill they made was presumably docsaved?

It's... plausible in the most tenuous sense of the word.

Now Frisk is at L-1. I'm very tempted to hammer. I'm about 95% sure he's mafia, and dang, you don't see them odds often. But as long as people are talking maybe something will come up.

You don't think it's been talked to death?  You think it will get better than 95%?

[Robz888]

If your mind is made up, Tables, I can't blame you.

[Captain_Frisk]

You will be able to blame him as soon as he votes.

[Tables]

Your theory requires the mafia to roleblock you on a whim. Why would they do that?

If my mind were made up, I'd have hammered. In fact I was just about to! But now Frisk has actually made me think. So I'm going to think. Might as well humour a dead man if he's wrong, and definitely worth humouring him if he's right.

[Tables]

Incidentally I notice both Robz and me refuse to vote. Which clears Robz in my mind. Which is good, because I need to believe he's the doctor for things to make sense (conversely, I believe he needs to believe I'm the doctor, and he's smart enough to know neither of us are going to confirm which is true today).

[Robz888]

Incidentally I notice both Robz and me refuse to vote. Which clears Robz in my mind. Which is good, because I need to believe he's the doctor for things to make sense (conversely, I believe he needs to believe I'm the doctor, and he's smart enough to know neither of us are going to confirm which is true today).

I know. I keep saying to myself, "okay, we just need this out in the open. Tables, on three we both say if we are doctor." And then I think it through a step further and stop myself, because we can't actually do that.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Incidentally I notice both Robz and me refuse to vote. Which clears Robz in my mind. Which is good, because I need to believe he's the doctor for things to make sense (conversely, I believe he needs to believe I'm the doctor, and he's smart enough to know neither of us are going to confirm which is true today).

Well, look at it this way.  If you and Robz don't vote, Frisk gets what he wants.

I'm sure you guys will collectively figure it out.  Or not.  I'll check back in in a few hours.

[Captain_Frisk]

Your theory requires the mafia to roleblock you on a whim. Why would they do that?

If my mind were made up, I'd have hammered. In fact I was just about to! But now Frisk has actually made me think. So I'm going to think. Might as well humour a dead man if he's wrong, and definitely worth humouring him if he's right.

So - its night 3.  They have to roleblock someone.  They want to roleblock the serial killer.  They've already roleblocked 2 people that they can rule out because the kills kept happening.  I think they just kept rotating through people who were alive until they caught me.  I'm not sure that I"m a better target than anyone else - but they know I'm not mafia - and I have been pushing really hard to kill DSell. 

They can probably trust SFS, they can probably trust Tables. 

Someone did block me - or we wouldn't have had to lynch Axxle, since you know he wouldn't have been doctored.  Since you or RobZ aren't claiming not to have to have done so - that leaves Mafia roleblocking.

Hey! - someone has already claimed to have blocked me.  He just hasn't claimed to have blocked me both nights (because it would confirm that I'm a serial killer)

[Captain_Frisk]

Incidentally I notice both Robz and me refuse to vote. Which clears Robz in my mind. Which is good, because I need to believe he's the doctor for things to make sense (conversely, I believe he needs to believe I'm the doctor, and he's smart enough to know neither of us are going to confirm which is true today).

Well, look at it this way.  If you and Robz don't vote, Frisk gets what he wants.

I'm sure you guys will collectively figure it out.  Or not.  I'll check back in in a few hours.

SFS - I am scum - but in order to lynch mafia - you will need to team up with the serial killer.  Glooble and DSell are super buddy buddy.  They aren't even participating in any realistic possibility that the other is mafia.

Seriously guys - before you lynch me - you really should have a plausible thought on who my partner is.