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[popsofctown]

No Robz.  Massclaim is dumb.  Massclaims should only happen when they might change the lynch of the current day.  No one has come up with any sort of decent reason not to lynch Axxle2.

[popsofctown]

oh, you realized that yourself later.  I was just jumping to post because i was worried someone would claim out of turn.

Carry on.

[Captain_Frisk]

No one has come up with any sort of decent reason not to lynch Axxle2.

Are you not finding Axxle's posts a decent reason not to lynch him?

[Tables]

I claim town. wait, no, too soon, I retract!

I honestly don't see a better plan than lynching Axxle. All signs suggest he's the most likely scum of everyone left alive. I don't have any notes on his (Axxle1, Green Opal and Axxle2's) attitude to O in days 1 and 2, but it could be revealing, I guess?

Mmm... last night certainly was confusing. I think it's certainly very likely a doctor did something last night - if a one shot, it was probably well used, even if it did make things crazy.

Also can I just check, is the SK obliged to kill?

[Axxle]

Is that it pops?

[popsofctown]

I am just kinda convinced that Occam's Razor suggests we lynch Axxle today.  Scum wouldn't roleblock Dsell.  Town wouldn't protect Axxle.  Axxle and Dsell being scum together is the only thing that makes sense to me.

[Voltgloss]

Also can I just check, is the SK obliged to kill?

No role is obliged to use their nighttime abilities.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 4-1

Axxle (1): Captain_Frisk

Not voting {7}: Dsell, Robz888, Glooble, popsofctown, Tables, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Axxle

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Friday, July 20, at 7:59 a.m. EDT

[popsofctown]

Also can I just check, is the SK obliged to kill?

No role is obliged to use their nighttime abilities.

This is the part where we rapidly quiz people on the contents of the "Dominion qualifiers finals order" thread to determine who was not on f.ds overnight and explain the missing nightkill.

First quiz question, did Donald say verbally announcing the score out loud is legal or illegal.

[popsofctown]

whoever takes too long to answer is clearly researching.

[popsofctown]

It's been like 90 seconds.  You're all SKs

[Axxle]

Also can I just check, is the SK obliged to kill?

No role is obliged to use their nighttime abilities.

This is the part where we rapidly quiz people on the contents of the "Dominion qualifiers finals order" thread to determine who was not on f.ds overnight and explain the missing nightkill.

First quiz question, did Donald say verbally announcing the score out loud is legal or illegal.

That was a thread I avoided in order to retain my belief that this forum is saner than most others.

[Axxle]

Occam's Razor

It is incredibly difficult to argue against that.  And I put out my theories already.  You'll just have to judge for yourselves.

At this point I wish our power roles weren't ALL duds... (except for that doctor I guess)

[Tables]

I am just kinda convinced that Occam's Razor suggests we lynch Axxle today.  Scum wouldn't roleblock Dsell.  Town wouldn't protect Axxle.  Axxle and Dsell being scum together is the only thing that makes sense to me.

Occam's Razor really doesn't apply here. It's a probability thing. What's the chance X happened? What's the chance X AND Y happened? Given Z, what's the chance of X and Y etc.

Scum might roleblock DSell, and that's the problem. Especially scum who want to be able to claim scum wouldn't.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I'm out. Goodnite all, have fun.

[Robz888]

I am going to go ahead and Vote: Axxle. I see no lynching anybody else. Really, we just have to know about him one way or the other (or the other other) at this point.

If we're wrong, and he's town, we go into the night with 7 people. We could lose two more townies. Worst case scenario, we have 5 people alive tomorrow, split the following way (worst case scenario): 2 town, 2 mafia, 1 SK. That's pretty bad; the SK still being alive is the only thing preventing a mafia victory, if my understanding is correct. So we would need to lynch a mafia, not the SK, to avoid losing.

Let's say we do lynch a mafia at that point. We go into that night with 2 townies, 1 mafia, and 1 SK. Then I think we still probably lose, unless the mafia and SK kill each other. If the mafia kills the Sk and the Sk kills a townie, the mafia win. If the SK kills the mafia and the mafia kills a town, the Sk wins. If they kill both townies, I don't know who wins, but it sure ain't the town.

So actually, we're in for some pretty grim worst case scenarios if Axxle is none of the above. Gulp.

[Robz888]

But the fact that I had to point this out, rather than Axxle shouting it, "Lynch me and slow death awaits the town! Lynch me and lose later!!!" gives me a lot of hope.

[Axxle]

I am going to go ahead and Vote: Axxle. I see no lynching anybody else. Really, we just have to know about him one way or the other (or the other other) at this point.

If we're wrong, and he's town, we go into the night with 7 people. We could lose two more townies. Worst case scenario, we have 5 people alive tomorrow, split the following way (worst case scenario): 2 town, 2 mafia, 1 SK. That's pretty bad; the SK still being alive is the only thing preventing a mafia victory, if my understanding is correct. So we would need to lynch a mafia, not the SK, to avoid losing.

Let's say we do lynch a mafia at that point. We go into that night with 2 townies, 1 mafia, and 1 SK. Then I think we still probably lose, unless the mafia and SK kill each other. If the mafia kills the Sk and the Sk kills a townie, the mafia win. If the SK kills the mafia and the mafia kills a town, the Sk wins. If they kill both townies, I don't know who wins, but it sure ain't the town.

So actually, we're in for some pretty grim worst case scenarios if Axxle is none of the above. Gulp.

Yep.

Vote: Pops  Who's my strongest scum read right now.  He really didn't do much to prevent the Joth lynch except for calling us all idiots from the sidelines.

[Glooble]

Ok, I've been at work all day, but it seems pretty cut and dry to me. As stated earlier there are three scenarios:

1.DSell was lying and is mafia

I can't think of any reason for scum DSell not to shoot Axxle besides Axxle being his partner. If DSell is scum, Axxle is almost definitely also scum.

2.DSell was lying and is SK

WHy wouldn't he have shot Axxle? If he didn't, why did Axxle survive? THe only scenario that seems remotely plausible to me here is that the mafia roleblocked him to cause confusion, but then they were giving up a town kill this late in the game and that's a huge gambit. Also, that still leaves one nightkill unaccounted for

3. DSell was telling the truth.

See above. Or SK Axxle is bulletproof.

I'm confident enough with this assessment.

Vote: Axxle

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 4-2

Axxle (3): Captain_Frisk, Robz888, Glooble
popsofctown (1): Axxle

Not voting {4}: Dsell, popsofctown, Tables, SwitchedFromStarcraft

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Friday, July 20, at 7:59 a.m. EDT

[Tables]

If Axxle flips town, I think the question that should be asked is, who would play the gambit we've just seen as Mafia? I'd say... Pops and Robz would certainly consider it.

[Dsell]

Vote: Axxle

I know that I'm not mafia or SK, and I honestly don't know whether Axxle is mafia, SK, or town, I see situations in which he could be any of them. Unfortunately for him there are more scenarios in which he's scum, and I don't think we'll learn much of anything without this lynch.

Honestly guys it doesn't make much sense for me to be SK. I've pointed out that I wasn't suspicious of Theorel day 1, and I was the one who first raised awareness of the possibility of a SK among a pool of Robz, Jo, myself, and a few others.

[Axxle]

I was the one who first raised awareness of the possibility of a SK among a pool of Robz, Jo, myself, and a few others.

err...

[Dsell]

I was the one who first raised awareness of the possibility of a SK among a pool of Robz, Jo, myself, and a few others.

err...

This is exactly my point. I realized that the case I was making pointed the finger of suspicion squarely on myself among others. What I'm saying is that if I were the SK, making that case would be really foolhardy because I might be able to go through the game without drawing any suspicion to myself.

[Axxle]

I was the one who first raised awareness of the possibility of a SK among a pool of Robz, Jo, myself, and a few others.

err...

This is exactly my point. I realized that the case I was making pointed the finger of suspicion squarely on myself among others. What I'm saying is that if I were the SK, making that case would be really foolhardy because I might be able to go through the game without drawing any suspicion to myself.

I could say a similar thing about me, I think. Maybe. Kinda.