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Author Topic: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (GAME OVER - MAFIA WINS!)  (Read 338068 times)

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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 START!)
« Reply #2550 on: June 30, 2012, 08:08:15 pm »

Sweet Catch, SFS
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popsofctown

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 START!)
« Reply #2551 on: June 30, 2012, 08:09:32 pm »

SFS, you can IIoA all you want since you're an Innocent Child this game, but that post was actually analysis.
OH SNAP ANTECEDENT
MUST QUOTE
I have 3 pieces of information, and no analysis.  Yes, I know what that means.
Okay, I've done some thinking, and I've made up my mind:

VOTE: DSELL

I'm far from sure, but I think Dsell makes the most sense. He had no public relationship with O, they didn't ever vote for the same person, they didn't ever vote for each other. Dsell was squarely in the anti-Jo camp. I believe Dsell is correct, or he's mafia. The thing is, Jo was a great choice to be part of the bandwagon against, because he never got there, so he was always available next round to bandwagon against. And the people voting him got to look smart on Day 1 when they didn't lynch Axxle. If Dsell is is mafia, that means both he and O were safely off the Day 1 mislynch.

Maybe I'm succumbing to WIFOM, but Dsell seems like he is playing a great game. he hasn't raised anybody's ire (except dead Theorel, which might also mean something), everything he says is logical, his votes are logical... Maybe this is just a feeling. I have a bad feeling about him. I can see him being mafia, alongside O, much more than any of the other people, some of whom voted to lynch, one of whom was voted by O... it's down to Jo and Dsell for me. And pops and Glooble are fairly certain that Jo is not mafia. I've suspected Jo all of the first two rounds, and I think I was just plain wrong. There was also some bickering between O and Jo after I said my theory, and also O did vote Jo right when he had self-voted and was about to die.

So I'm down to Dsell here. VOTE: DSELL

By the way, let's say we're right, but that doesn't end the game. Okay, we've got another mafia or Serial Killer or something. If I don't live, you will see that I am town. Do not say, "oh well, he's not SK. Guess there's no SK." Plenty of other people could be the SK, if we have one.
Emphasis mine
1) FWIW, the assertion above in boldface is false. Jo voted for himself in 1793, and unvoted 51 minutes later in 1803. At no time during any of this did O vote for Jo.  In fact, O even posted, in 1810, the following (quoting in its entirety, italics added to separate from my prose in this post, underlined emphasis is mine, twice):

"Jo reads dumb townie, just like he always has.

I would have voted him as a policy lynch for self-voting (which yes, I have threatened to do before but never actually did) but the "omg wanting to live is a scumtell" is such crap that I can't justify voting along with users of such terrible logic."


2) This pronouncement by O of Jo's town-ness is one I did not find researching my wall-o-text post at 2343, but as I said there, O defends Jo again two posts later, in 1812.

3) In researching for this post, I found another O stance on Jo that I failed to add to 2343. In 873, O says the following (quoting only O's original text, but in its entirety [he quoted Theorel, which I've omitted], italics again added for separation, and underline added as well):
"On who we're voting for? Yea, I do. I don't buy that J is actually mafia.

Currently my suspicions are still on Popsofctown and on Captain Frisk, with a lesser suspicion placed on SwitchedFromStarcraft"

I don't know what to make of Rob's inaccuracy (had to grope for a relatively neutral word), but it's pretty clear to me that O sure wanted everyone to know that he thought J was town, especially at a key moment - when Jo was still close to death.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 START!)
« Reply #2552 on: June 30, 2012, 08:18:06 pm »

Damn. You're totally right. I'm wrong. F*ck. Okay, strike that point in Jo's favor from the record.
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SwitchedFromStarcraft

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 START!)
« Reply #2553 on: June 30, 2012, 08:18:41 pm »

SFS, are you saying that you think I'm magically-unlynchable scum or magically-unlynchable town?

Or do you have no idea if I'm scum or town?
Unless you can establish why you need to know, no wait, that one's been used.
Read my posting history, no wait, I think that one was yours.
I let you figure that one out, no wait, that was O.

I don't believe the question to be germane since you can't be lynched.  However, my viewpoint (which I've posted before) is that even if you flip town, we (the town) gain, if nothing else, an increase in the signal to noise ratio.

But why are you worried - you can't buy a lynch EVEN WHEN YOU VOTE FOR YOURSELF.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 START!)
« Reply #2554 on: June 30, 2012, 08:21:12 pm »

If Jo were to flip town, I don't think that would be a good thing having killed him. I appreciate his analysis, and he is being helpful today.

I must push for the Dsell lynch.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 START!)
« Reply #2555 on: June 30, 2012, 08:25:55 pm »

As glad as I am SFS pointed it out, I don't actually think it's a meaningful inaccuracy. I don't see it as an intentional lie from scum-Robz, because the boost it gives to his point isn't worth risking a LAL response.

Since Robz proposed the Dsell wagon, no one's spoken out against it, but no one's jumped on it. And that means very little, info-wise.

Actually, though, the salient point is here:

Plus, you know--we're doing okay here, guys. And it will be interesting to see how many kills happen in the night. And I'm still betting we have another power townie, and they get another night to do their power.

Dsell is a pretty informational lynch. He's the one person most of us still have as a null read. With him gone, we'll be left with only people we have some kind of a read on. So, I'm warming to this.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 START!)
« Reply #2556 on: June 30, 2012, 08:26:14 pm »

Vote: Dsell
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 START!)
« Reply #2557 on: June 30, 2012, 08:49:29 pm »

SFS - after your information and analysis - what is your read on J?

I'm still stuck @ WIFOM on that.  Either O wanted to protect his scumbuddy - and J was just crazy gambitting or O wanted to make a townfriend - either are acceptable.

Do you read it as an intentional mistake from RobZ? - then he's pushing for DSell to lynch an innocent over J - when he could have just hammered me (unless he woke up too late?)

On DSell - I don't have any issues with it, but the case seems to be PoE - rather than specific scumtells - although I don't know what we really have better on anyone else.  Deadline is Tuesday?  I don't want to be too hasty - and DSell does get 1/2 of a point for not hammering me... The fact that Jonah is the only other person on the wagon makes me nervous.

@SFS/Tables: If we lynch DSell - and he flips town - where do we go next?

oh - @SFS I'm not ignoring your question from a page or two back - if you want me to answer I will - I just wanted to keep us on track here.

@pops - ditto to why I think you're suspicious for taking J off the table.
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SwitchedFromStarcraft

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 START!)
« Reply #2559 on: June 30, 2012, 09:01:14 pm »

If Jo were to flip town, I don't think that would be a good thing having killed him. I appreciate his analysis, and he is being helpful today.

I must push for the Dsell lynch.

Over the past few post you're starting to sound more hedgy to me Robz.  And IIRC, over the past several game days, you've made seemingly good cases against folks, then later backed away. Yet here, you've expressed perhaps more doubt than at any other time (quoting selectively now from your "vote Dsell post" at 2543):

I'm far from sure, but I think Dsell makes the most sense.

Maybe I'm succumbing to WIFOM, but Dsell seems like he is playing a great game.

Maybe this is just a feeling. I have a bad feeling about him.

it's down to Jo and Dsell for me.

I've suspected Jo all of the first two rounds, and I think I was just plain wrong.

yet you say you must push for Dsell, even after I've weakened your argument against Dsell, and provided you with more evidence against Jo. And you are on record as "not voting lightly".

Further, to say that it's bad if we lynch someone that flips town is, well, obvious.  If we lynch Dsell and he's town, that would be bad too. Of course, I argue that it would not be AS bad, for all the reasons that everyone has brought up already concerning the oddness of his play.  And

I have made no decision on Dsell - I haven't (can't?) identify where he falls on my suspicion gradient, but I can tell you he's not a high priority for research or examination.  You however, have begun to worry me (again).
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SwitchedFromStarcraft

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 START!)
« Reply #2560 on: June 30, 2012, 09:04:44 pm »

* oddness of Jo's play (if it wasnt clear)
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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 START!)
« Reply #2561 on: June 30, 2012, 09:15:49 pm »

SFS - after your information and analysis - what is your read on J?

I'm still stuck @ WIFOM on that.  Either O wanted to protect his scumbuddy - and J was just crazy gambitting or O wanted to make a townfriend - either are acceptable.

Do you read it as an intentional mistake from RobZ? - then he's pushing for DSell to lynch an innocent over J - when he could have just hammered me (unless he woke up too late?)

On DSell - I don't have any issues with it, but the case seems to be PoE - rather than specific scumtells - although I don't know what we really have better on anyone else.  Deadline is Tuesday?  I don't want to be too hasty - and DSell does get 1/2 of a point for not hammering me... The fact that Jonah is the only other person on the wagon makes me nervous.

@SFS/Tables: If we lynch DSell - and he flips town - where do we go next?

oh - @SFS I'm not ignoring your question from a page or two back - if you want me to answer I will - I just wanted to keep us on track here.

@pops - ditto to why I think you're suspicious for taking J off the table.

Re: Robz error - I don't know how to read it, that's why I said I don't know what to make of it.  I really do think about stuff before I post, guys.  That said, it is unsettling when combined with the other points I made regarding his case.

If I asked you a question in a previous post, I do want an answer. I'm about to bring that up again to Pops.

My read on Jo is that if town, he's muddying the waters, and if mafia, I don't want him rewarded for playing this way. (Wow, now I'm an expert.) He needs to go, whether he is town or mafia.  Several people (in addition to me) have made that point.  Which is why I'm playing the part of Don Quixote.  He's not gonna be lynched, and that helps mafia, because they have concluded (mostly accurately) there is a high possibility that my (admittedly limited) analytical prowess is best wasted on a non-viable target.
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SwitchedFromStarcraft

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 START!)
« Reply #2562 on: June 30, 2012, 09:21:09 pm »

intentional mistake
Another example of how the quote button is not always our friend.
Rhetorical question: what are you trying to communicate here.

Non-rhetorical question (2nd request): The one I posed to you Pops in my post #2503. And yes, I'm aware that I could quote it here, but I'll let you expend a little effort this time.
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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 START!)
« Reply #2563 on: June 30, 2012, 09:24:29 pm »

@ Frisk - sorry dude, you asked one more question in 2557 that I forgot to answer.  If we lynch Dsell, and he flips town, I will (and WE all should) have some questions for Robz, and I will continue to push for Jo's lynch.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 START!)
« Reply #2564 on: June 30, 2012, 09:24:49 pm »

@SFS, all I can say is that dwell stands out to me the most, because I have strong cases for and against almost everyone else. Dsell has some minor bad points against him--he didn't vote O, O hardly ever acknowledged him--and nothing that exonerates him. Because Dsell is such a curious exception to the game right now, he is the best lynch.
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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 START!)
« Reply #2565 on: June 30, 2012, 09:28:08 pm »

SFS, you can IIoA all you want since you're an Innocent Child this game, but that post was actually analysis.
--snip--

Thanks, I can feel the love.  Perhaps I've gained enough standing to get an answer to my second request, in 2562?
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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 START!)
« Reply #2566 on: June 30, 2012, 09:34:09 pm »

@SFS, all I can say is that dwell stands out to me the most, because I have strong cases for and against almost everyone else. Dsell has some minor bad points against him--he didn't vote O, O hardly ever acknowledged him--and nothing that exonerates him. Because Dsell is such a curious exception to the game right now, he is the best lynch.
(emphasis mine)
OK thanks, that last point helps me quite a bit, as it is somewhat analogous to why I investigated Tables, he struck me as the curious standout.

I'd like to hear from other folks about the boldfaced assertion above. Is it smart/good/valid (pick a word) gameplay?

Also, I will likely not be back on again tonite, and will be unavailable for a significant portion of tomorrow, until tomorrow evening.
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popsofctown

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 START!)
« Reply #2567 on: June 30, 2012, 09:47:17 pm »

intentional mistake
Another example of how the quote button is not always our friend.
Rhetorical question: what are you trying to communicate here.

Non-rhetorical question (2nd request): The one I posed to you Pops in my post #2503. And yes, I'm aware that I could quote it here, but I'll let you expend a little effort this time.

I thought 2503 was rhetorical.
The answer is yes.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 START!)
« Reply #2568 on: June 30, 2012, 09:49:37 pm »

CF, I noticed you didn't claim at L-1 before. (Granted you weren't there very long). Any reason?

Answer as promised:

I considered it.  Then I realized that nobody asked for it, and I figured that anyone who hammered me without asking / waiting for discussion would be revealing information that I want the surviving town to have - so I waited it out.  Further discussion here is anti-town - which I hate to quote pops on:

No one has any idea of what rolefishing is, or why it's bad.

Rolefishing behavior is incredibly anti-town, even if it rarely is a useful scumtell.

Everyone stop it.

This thread is now about Counting House.

Hey look pops - that's how the quote button works - you put someone else's words in - and then you add some commentary around it. 

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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 START!)
« Reply #2569 on: June 30, 2012, 09:50:05 pm »

Pops - if you are town - why do you hate us?
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 START!)
« Reply #2570 on: June 30, 2012, 09:52:05 pm »

Maybe I'm succumbing to WIFOM, but Dsell seems like he is playing a great game. he hasn't raised anybody's ire (except dead Theorel, which might also mean something), everything he says is logical, his votes are logical... Maybe this is just a feeling. I have a bad feeling about him.

Mafia III was my first game of mafia ever. IRL or online. I started out trusting my gut and it led me to suspect you, and you were town. When I started prioritizing logic over instinct in that game I correctly picked out the whole mafia team. So I'm trying to learn from my mistakes in that game and am indeed playing a very logical game. There's a lot of WIFOM because you don't always know people's motivation but I think in the end it can be a winning strategy.

But you and pops are wrong when you say I've had no interaction with O in this game. Aside from day 2 when I was on vacation the majority of the day, O defended me multiple times on day 1 and voted for Theorel because he misrepresented me, even though Theorel seemed town to me. I pointed out yesterday that I think he was trying to get some favor from me by fighting some of my battles for me.
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popsofctown

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 START!)
« Reply #2571 on: June 30, 2012, 09:54:15 pm »

I don't hate you.  I just enjoy jokes where I'm the only one laughing.  And stuff.  I'm sorry no one else gets a share of the delicious irony i find permeates our universe.
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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 START!)
« Reply #2572 on: June 30, 2012, 10:49:42 pm »

I don't hate you.  I just enjoy jokes where I'm the only one laughing.  And stuff.  I'm sorry no one else gets a share of the delicious irony i find permeates our universe.
I hear you, brotha. That's why I keep hitting the ball back.

Thanks for this. It was like a fresh breeze into my late evening, plus it explains so much. With this single post, you've now become one of MY favorite posters on f.DS. (You shouldn't let it swell your head though. WW is has been fading for a while.  I'm surprised he's the fan base). 

Much love.
(To pops, not WW)

P.S. It's the stuff that's the best, though the irony can get juicy enough to make it a close call.
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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 START!)
« Reply #2573 on: June 30, 2012, 10:55:13 pm »

I'm really gone this time, till tomorrow early evening EDT.  Have fun all, and thanks for putting up with me. It's starting to be a little bit fun.
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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 START!)
« Reply #2574 on: June 30, 2012, 11:53:36 pm »

Vote Count 3-7

Captain_Frisk (2): Axxle, popsofctown
Dsell (2): Robz888, jotheonah

Not voting {5}: Dsell, Captain_Frisk, Glooble, Tables, SwitchedFromStarcraft

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Tuesday, July 11, 4:59 p.m. EDT
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