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[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Don't know how to split quotes, so I'll try to accomplish what I'm after by using color.  My responses are in red:

There must be something in the genetic code of the jo/glooble family that compels them to be on every. single. bandwagon. out there. But I digress.

SFS, I'm confused by your vote. By putting C_F at L-1, you are clearly saying that you are ok with him being lynched, as anyone could come along at any time and hammer. That is correct.  The concept of what happens at L-1 has been written about previously, and I've actually read the whole thread. I find it interesting that you ask this question, given my additional post about knowing I am putting him at L-1. But you don't sound altogether convinced that he's mafia. I'm not convinced anyone is or isn't mafia (except me, cause I know I'm town), but I'm definitely more than ok with Frisk being lynched, based on the totality of what's been posted.  As I also stated in my vote post, we will now get to see who does or doesn't hammer, or jump off.  You apparently won't hammer.  That is information. Or did you just not repeat the whole case against him? Are you trying to prove a point about jo being mafia and apparently unlynchable? I'm not trying to prove any point.  If I was trying to prove a point, I would have responded to you with "Unless you can establish the need to know, I'll not be responding, so as to not educate anybody while playing mafia". I'm collecting data. On the subject of Jo, suffice it to say I think I've collected enough data from the group to know that Jo is unlynchable for some unfathomable reason.  (Nicely played Jo!).

I want to hear from pops. He is *still* one of our most experienced players and maybe he just likes to hold back until we're closer to the end-game, I don't know. Or he's just O being O Pops being Pops.  As I've stated before, it's obviously not a team game.  Or if it is, there is no penalty for not playing as part of a team.

Analyzing this bandwagon on C_F has been exceedingly vexing and filled with WIFOM for me. First of all, we don't know how many mafia there are, so he may be the only one left, and the town has just found him out. If he's town, I could see the mafia having joined this bandwagon already (or piggybacking on Galz to "start" it today) or staying off altogether and letting the town blow up. If he's mafia and has partners, well it's getting to a stage where it's awfully risk/reward to bus their partners, but I tend to think they would. It's not impossible to me that they could even lead the charge against their partner to win major town points in the end game. So, to some extent, it feels like it's going to be hard to learn anything until we get actual information from the flip and night roles. There's just so many possibilities in the last paragraph and probably even more I haven't thought of. And there are so many ways to read you bringing all the possibilities up. Everyone is in "oh I don't know, there's this, there's that, I'm vexed, hedge hedge, wonder wonder, discuss, rethink, move over to this possibility, rinse and repeat" mode.  The preponderance of the evidence that speaks to me points to Jo, then Frisk. This is a game of incomplete information, so let's get some more. I moved my vote, let's see what happens now.

We need to hear from Glooble. He has been mostly absent from day 3, in fact the only thing I actually remember him saying made red flags go up for me. He's been a little cleared through some of his actions but he's been a total lurker today, even if he has had a crazy schedule for part of the time. The twinclaim is really the most notable thing from him this whole game, and it impacted the town by buying more time for jo (not sure yet if that's a good or a bad thing) but his confidence on jo being town and then O being mafia irk me. Let me parse this last sentence to confirm.  If I understand you correctly, you're irked that Glooble was confidently correct about O (if you are town, why would that irk you?), but also irked that he is confident that Jo is town (if you are town, why would that irk you? You will, of course, say that as town it irks you because you think Jo is mafia, and you can prove it with your voting.  You camped your vote on Jo most of day 1 (more on that in the next post) and voted for Jo early on Day2 as well, but haven't voted for him on Day3 despite my analysis of O's posts at #2343, which I think make the case even stronger.)

Obviously I'm not hammering C_F tonight. I think that is the likely/inevitable end to this day and I kind of expect it to be the right decision, but there is information still to be had and there's some more time in the day. No need for a quick lynch. Is it a likely end, or is it an inevitable end?  'Cause if it's inevitable, this sounds like hedging, and not casting a vote on someone that is inevitably going down is a nice place for a mafia to be if you want to keep your hands clean. Here's a question:  If you believe that it Frisk is the right lynch decision, is it more right or less right than lynching Jo right now?

 

[popsofctown]

I really don't understand much of what Pops is saying ATM...

He's responding to the lynch at 5% time allotted that CF mentioned.

This kid gets it.


SFS is town because he made a post, deleted it, but ultimately did actually make the post in which he declared he would use humor. 
Whenever I debate whether to make a post or delete it as mafia, the longer I deliberate, the less likely I am to approve the message to wander dangerously out to sea. 

He was also transparent about this process, but not in an apologetic defensive way.  scumSwitched would not mention his uncertainty in whether or not to post a declaration he would use humor, he'd more likely keep it to himself because it makes him seem like mafia afraid of looking bad.

He's at that absolutely new phase where I'm going to put it past him to fake something like confessing to posting anxiety.  He's my strongest town read in the game thus far.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

-- snip--
Still - I know for a fact that dsell, pops and Jonah are more likely to be mafia than I am.  It's the only verifiable piece of info I have.

Axxle, j, pops: barring the 3 mafia remaining solution, at least one of you guys are going to look scummy tomorrow if you proceed with this lynch.  Be better prepared than I was.

emphais mine
The bold is why I unvoted.  I was writing the post that became #2500 when I read this response from Frisk, and I was really beginning to look hard at DSell (which is why, in 2500, there is a parenthetical about "more on that in the next post" which I will get to in another post).

I'm still ok with Frisk going down, but I'd like to give him a chance to explain the "it's the only verifiable piece of info I have".

What say, Frisk? Also, why the advice to your suspects ("be better prepared than I was").

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Ah, Pops. Sigh.

The level of effort it takes.

Would I be correct in assuming that 2501 is in response to my 2431?  Cause you know how I love the lack of antecedents.

+1 though for very effectively disproving that "the quote button is our friend".

[jotheonah]

SFS really is a funny guy.

Robz, I would love for you to weigh in on recent events.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

SFS really is a funny guy.

Robz, I would love for you to weigh in on recent events.

Funny strange, or funny ha-ha?

[jotheonah]

SFS really is a funny guy.

Robz, I would love for you to weigh in on recent events.

Funny strange, or funny ha-ha?

Little from column A, a little from column B.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

OK, so back to my analysis of Dsell re: Jo, and...the lynchpin of my argument evaporated. DOH.

Briefly: Thinking I had caught Dsell in a lie, I was gonna climb all over post 735, where Dsell says

"I voted for jo when everyone was trolling but unvoted pretty soon after.

Still thinking about whether to vote.

P-p edit: up to six now...

Uh..another p-p edit: down to five now."

knowing that all the votecounts through 1-8 showed Dsell not voting.  But it dawned on my that if somebody votes and unvotes between counts, he stays in non-voting status, and this is indeed what happened.  Reminder to self: check ALL the data (not just the data SUMMARIES) before drawing conclusions.

Still, #2493 bothers me for the reasons I brought up in my comments. And so now Dsell joins my list of "suspicious".

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm still ok with Frisk going down, but I'd like to give him a chance to explain the "it's the only verifiable piece of info I have".

What say, Frisk? Also, why the advice to your suspects ("be better prepared than I was").

The only verifiable piece of information I have is my role PM.  I 100% know for sure that the other 3 people in the non-O wagon have a better chance of being mafia than I do.

As for the advice to my suspects - I believe at least 1 of them to be town (I think 4 mafia - 0 SK to be less likely AND even if there was 3 mafia remaining - I seriously doubt that all 3 of them are mafia)

Assuming at least 1 town - they are in a prime position to get rammed tomorrow after I am flipped.

J and Pops are in the worst spots - as they will have then been on the wrong side of 3 lynches... not to mention the Grujah shenanigans.

As lynching time came - I didn't really consider that I'd be left standing in a pool with J, Pops and DSell as non O voters.  I've never been worried about my public perception - and nobody really suspected me (as several people pointed out in the tables voting discussion).  All the sudden I went from mostly harmless to public enemy #1.

Oh - and hi pops.  You pop in to quote something and thats it?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I also note the following chronology:

I took Jo to L-2 (6th vote) in 732. In 735, Dsell professes indecision.  Between 735 and Dsell's (non-troll) vote for Jo at 742, Tables had unvoted for Jo (taking us to down to 5 votes).  Therefore, Dsell got to cast a vote without taking us to L-1.

@Frisk - Can you summarize your suspicions of Dsell.

@Robz - Although it pains me GREATLY to agree with Jo twice in one day, I'd like to hear your thoughts on what I've brought up.

[jotheonah]

Well, lots of people not around. And I'mma disappear for a while. In the meantime, Vote: Axxle

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

-- snip--
Oh - and hi pops.  You pop in to quote something and thats it?

I'm telling you, he's scared of me.

In fairness though, it may be that he has a limit on the number of questions he answers in a game, and I probably busted the limit long ago.  But hey, that's just Pops being Pops.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Well, lots of people not around. And I'mma disappear for a while. In the meantime, Vote: Axxle

No prob.  You're safe, no worries.

[Captain_Frisk]

@SFS - I have to go lose in the dominion tournament - but my suspicious of DSell are summarized by RobZ - and in one of my posts from last night.

There honestly isn't much there.  It isn't a good case.

[popsofctown]

I'm gonna level with you guys.

I haven't caught up on the thread yet.

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm gonna level with you guys.

I haven't caught up on the thread yet.

Pics or it didn't happen.

[Robz888]

Hi all,

I am glad that Frisk is NOT at L-1. I don't support lynching him, probably. This is unfortunate, because there is a volume of evidence against him:

-- Galzria, who we know is innocent, told us to go get Frisk.
-- Frisk did not vote for O. He did vote for Axxle1, and wanted to lynch Grujah.
-- In general, I think the arguments he has made today, while mostly valid, carry the tone of scum.

However, I just cannot get past this:

Vote Captain Frisk

He's also one of my weaker townreads.  PoE.

I support this bandwagon (and yes I have already FOS'd CF multiple times before).

Vote: Captain Frisk

Vote Count 2-3

jotheonah (2): Galzria, Dsell
Glooble (1): Captain_Frisk
Galzria (1): jotheonah
Captain_Frisk (2): popsofctown, O

Not voting {6}: Robz888, Glooble, Tables, Grujah, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Axxle

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

Also, I haven't seen Frisk really bring this up in order to defend himself. If O voting for him was a ploy, wouldn't he be reminding us of it all the time now? He's not, I'm doing that.

I don't feel too strongly about an Axxle2 lynch. Maybe I am putting way too much stake in mafia not voting for fellow mafia at consequential times, but Axxle2 was the 5th vote for 0 (and Glooble was the 4th). You know, it's just not a certainty of O being lynched at that point, right? I don't know guys. I find it tough to believe.

So I return to Jo and Dsell, who CANNOT both be mafia, and indeed Jo has been more suspicious to me all game. I haven't gotten a bad vibe from his this round the way I have previous rounds, but I certainly got those vibes previous rounds. Now, O defended Jo kind of a lot---probably more than I would expect, if they were both mafia. Dsell, on the other hand, kept his votes on Jo, did not get on the O bandwagon.... maybe that's ultimately scummier. Of course, I also really suspected Jo in other rounds, so how can I fault him for that.... Blargh.

Sorry if it sounds like I am going around in circles. I sort of am going around in circles, and I have completely different analyses depdning on whether there is 1 more mafia or 2 more mafia.

But anyway, I think I'm closer to voting Jo or Dsell, than I am to voting Frisk or Axxle. Do my reasons make sense?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Then let's just lynch Jo for crying out loud.

To all - Who would NOT vote for Jo right now?

[Axxle]

Then let's just lynch Jo for crying out loud.

To all - Who would NOT vote for Jo right now?

I'll vote for him for no other reason* than as a policy lynch that should have happened decades ago.

*there are plenty of other reasons too

[Axxle]

As a reminder, I'll be semi VLA for the rest of the weekend.

[Tables]

Robz, I already somehow have more notes on you for today than I did for yesterday. That's pretty impressive (not all of them are good, of course...). I think your reasoning makes sense, and this Frisk wagon now could also be revealing. We had, according to my records:
Axxle (2402)
Pops (2407)
Joth (2461)
SFS (2488)

At this point, it's votes 2 and 3 that really matter. One vote on someone is interesting. Two votes now an it's viable. Three, and they're a likely target for the day. It's worth noting, SFS had a vote on Joth from before this, which makes me slightly uncomfortable with Pops in there.

I'm also wondering if Joth's playstyle change was a result of O dying. I... was thinking this was due to his teammate being lynched for crazy, but actually, this just feels like Joth normally. Getting more helpful as the town gets smaller. So... eh.

DSell at this point isn't striking me as being mafia. I don't have a strong read, but he seems somewhat pro-town to me. So that leaves really as my main suspects Axxle and Joth. Axxle I've hardly considered and really struggle to read the guy. Joth is just, it's mad, his brinksmanship of being constantly almost killed is amazing.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

--snip--
Joth is just, it's mad, his brinksmanship of being constantly almost killed is amazing.

It's not amazing, it's easily explainable. People only talk about how crazy, weird, bad-town-player he is and then don't vote for him.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-5

Captain_Frisk (2): Axxle, popsofctown
Axxle (1): jotheonah

Not voting {6}: Dsell, Robz888, Captain_Frisk, Glooble, Tables, SwitchedFromStarcraft

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Tuesday, July 11, 4:59 p.m. EDT

[Dsell]

SFS, your analysis of my post is frankly pretty terrible. Especially the part about "if you think his lynch is inevitable, by not hammering right now you look suspicious."

Your case against jo is interesting because this is pretty much what I was saying might happen on Day 2:

He's said he's been playing more like O or TINAS (a player from Mafia I) this game. Those two players have been rather successful because of/despite their playstyle, and shared a town win in Mafia I. I believe that jo, as mafia, thought he could play the carefree part well and hoped he could convince the town not to vote for him. By getting people to believe he's VT, he can skate through the game under the radar: trusted by the town and not worth a night kill from the mafia. I don't want this to be a successful tactic. It's too dangerous, too good if it works.

And he hasn't done a lot to subdue my suspicions. He's a lot more helpful now, but it's such a turnaround that it sticks out like a sore thumb. Right now I see C_F as a bit more suspicious, but jo has been playing this whole game scummily.

Robz, I agree with all of your points about why C_F is suspicious but I don't agree that O's second vote on him could not have been a bus. It took 7 to lynch, so 2 votes on C_F was not putting him in much danger. Especially because pops didn't have tons of goodwill with the town at that point. And oh look, pops unvoted on the next page and the bandwagon fizzled.

[Captain_Frisk]

I am glad that Frisk is NOT at L-1. I don't support lynching him, probably. This is unfortunate, because there is a volume of evidence against him:

-- Galzria, who we know is innocent, told us to go get Frisk.
-- Frisk did not vote for O. He did vote for Axxle1, and wanted to lynch Grujah.
-- In general, I think the arguments he has made today, while mostly valid, carry the tone of scum.


--snip--

Also, I haven't seen Frisk really bring this up in order to defend himself. If O voting for him was a ploy, wouldn't he be reminding us of it all the time now? He's not, I'm doing that.
--snip--
But anyway, I think I'm closer to voting Jo or Dsell, than I am to voting Frisk or Axxle. Do my reasons make sense?

Once again - I'm happy with your outcome.  I am also happy to not be at L-1!

As for the evidence - I can't help my voting history - other than pointing out that there are 2 other people with the exact same history.  If I'm going to get ding'ed for being wrong on Axxle - I should not get dinged for listening to reason on Grujah - who's lynch looked super scummy as soon as the wagon was clear. 

As for Galz - I find this to be quasi-weak.  Galz was wrong about Axxle1 - so his reads aren't infallible.  When we look at the night kills (Galz and Grujah) - I have some challenges. 

Let's assume I'm mafia:
 - I wouldn't want to kill Galz and leave his unwavering FoS at me... I can't debate with a dead man.
 - I also don't really want to kill Grujah as he seemed like an easy lynch - hell I probably could have lynched him yesterday instead of letting my scumbuddy O get lynched instead.  Plus - I (should) have Grujah-Gratitude going forward because I saved his ass. 

Let's assume I'm not mafia:
- Killing Galz points an unwavering FoS at me (not mafia) forever.  Pretty good mafia play!
- After the Grujah wagon failed (partly because of my unvote) - he was looking pretty town - so it also makes sense for mafia to get him out of the picture.

As others have pointed out - Galz was looking pretty scummy previously (not including O in his tables table, voting for Axxle2) - so I tend to think he was left alive by mafia so that we could argue over which one of us (Frisk / Galz) was mafia and mislynch - but then targeted by a SK / Vig who thought that he seemed more suspicious than me. 

In summary - I don't feel that the Galz FOS coupled with the Galz night kill make sense if I'm mafia.  Neither of the night kill targets are good choices if was actually mafia.

Final point in response to your post - I'm with DSell on the O voting.  I've been letting you drum it because (hey - I like any reason for people to not vote for me) - but I don't see it as an especially compelling argument.  I don't feel I was particularly scummy on Day 1 / 2 - so O's attempt to wagon on me wasn't likely to take off (and as you can see - it didn't)

Now - on the subject of Jo or DSell vs. Axxle / Frisk... can we discuss Pops?

--- will post more - wife aggro --- errands to run --- help help help ---