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[Robz888]

Pops is town, because O is mafia. We don't have to worry about Pops.

But yeah, this summary makes it pretty clear we gotta go Jo or Frisk. On one hand, I do think O was quite aggressive in his defense of Jo, whereas Frisk was someone he kept saying non-substantive negative things about, but not doing much else there, and certainly nothing that would motivate an actual Frisk vote. So the Frisk situation I think is more scummy from O's perspective.

However, I still think if Jo was not mafia, O would have tried to find a way onto his bandwagon. The fact that O didn't was sort of the genesis of my theory, in which Jo would have to be mafia. So it's a toss up for me.

[Axxle]

I will lol if they both are mafia.

[Robz888]

I will lol if they both are mafia.

They very well may be. Remember how incredulously furious O was when I said all the mafia were among those people?

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-1

Captain_Frisk (1): Axxle
jotheonah (1): SwitchedFromStarcraft

Not voting {7}: Dsell, Robz888, Captain_Frisk, Glooble, popsofctown, Tables, jotheonah

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Tuesday, July 11, 4:59 p.m. EDT

[Dsell]

An idea struck me, and it may be a bit out there but hear me out with this one.

I believe that Galzria was killed by a SK who was trying to hit mafia.

If this is the case, it can really help us figure out who the SK is. Jo and I were the only who were voting for Galz, which suggests it could be one of us (it's not me ) OR someone who agreed with our arguments against Galz but was voting for someone else instead. I never actually got a chance to post the long version of my suspicions against him, but there was plenty of other suspicion to make a SK think he was mafia, especially since an O-Galz mafia pairing didn't look impossible.

So the people who expressed suspicion of Galz/agreed with jo or myself (help me supplement this list if need be...90 pages) include Robz, and to some extent, Axxle2, Glooble, and C_F. I think that there is a legitimate chance that one of these people who thought there was a chance that Galz was mafia is the Serial Killer.

Take all this as you will, but this makes a lot of sense to me. So I think we need to really keep in mind the idea that me, Jo, and Robz could be SK, with some suspicion also on Axxle2, Glooble, and C_F.

The major flaw to this idea is that all of the above could apply if it were a vig kill. I imagine both SK and vig want to hit mafia night 2. However, I think a vig kill is highly unlikely because we know for sure that we had 1 woodcutter, which suggests to me that we most likely do not have a full vig. If that's the case we either have a SK or different woodcutters used their 1-shots on the first two nights. That strikes me as unlikely because 1-shot vig is something that seems much more useful towards the endgame when the chances of hitting mafia are much stronger.

I also get that SK-hunting is not ideal and that, frankly, the mafia wants the SK gone probably as much as the town does. I plan to scumhunt as well but this jumped out at me and I thought I should share the idea. At the very least I think the logic is sound.

[jotheonah]

Back finally. Sort of skimmed all those pages.

@SFS, yes I find O's play hilarious and whimsical and worthy of emulation, in a general sense. I know most of you don't feel that way. Yes, O buddied up to me a lot. Honestly, I feel like that should clear me. We're both crazy, but we're both smart enough to know that double-crazy is not a winning mafia strategy. Double crazy + obvbuddying even less so. I mean, that's like epic bad play.

@Dsell. I've literally been waiting for someone to suggest I'm SK. That's a scenario where my play this game would make a lot of sense in a high-risk high-reward sort of way.  I'm not, of course. I am, as I have always claimed to be, town. I'm actually extremely worried how little idea we have who the SK is, because he could be literally any of us, and even if we successfully eliminate the scum, we're still going to have to find that needle in that haystack to win the game. So, thank you for SK hunting a little, even if it is apparently a scumtell.

If I had to vote for mafia right now, it would either be CF or Axxle. Axxle is woefully inconsistent with his FoSsing, and he doesn't broadcast that inconsistency. Like he doesn't say "I'm coming around on X." or "I know I said Y was town but now I'm not so sure."  It's just "X seems safe" in one post and then "X is scum" in the next. I noticed it cause he was doing that a lot to me, but I have a feeling his iso will show he does that a lot in general.  He strikes me as highly opportunistic.

I don't see his O vote, even it's timing as #5, as clearing him. O was highly bussable for any mafia who wanted to live.

Also, just noticing, pops posted an uncharacteristically long defense of himself despite a relatively small amount of suspicion. This continues to be one of the only tells I really trust.

[Robz888]

You people are forgetting one thing: there is no Serial Killer. At least, it strikes me as pretty unlikely at this point.

We had 2 people die Night 1, and 2 people die Night 2. We can explain 3 of those 4 kills: a mafia kill each night, and Grujah's 1-shot vig kill. I'm assuming Grujah shot Galzria, which makes plenty of sense, or he shot Theorel Day 1, which also would make at least some sense.

So, there's one kill we can't explain. The problem is, if we had a Serial Killer, there should be 2 kills we can't explain: one each night. There are ways to explain this, yes: The Serial Killer was roleblocked one of these nights; the Serial Killer killed both nights and Grujah did not use his vig shot at all; the Serial Killer did kill and the mafia were roleblocked; etc. While these scenarios are possible, what I find most likely is that we simply do not have a Serial Killer.

Separately, I am sure Grujah used his kill on either Theorel or Galzria. Theorel was an Axxle1 voter who had distorted some facts in an argument with Dsell and was all sorts of scummy. Galzria was the next most likely mafia, after O. I would guess that Grujah killed on Night 1, as people with the power to kill usually use it as soon as possible. But I sincerely doubt he wouldn't have used it either night.

It's also possible a Mafia Rolecop discovered that Grujah was a One-Shot Vig on Night 1, and decided to take him out, not knowing whether he had used his power or not.

[Robz888]

Additionally, would the Serial Killer want to kill Galzria? It was pretty clear that the town was going to seriously consider lynching him today. I think the SK would want to kill somebody whose pretty much acquitted, and leave the town to deal with Galz.

[Dsell]

Additionally, would the Serial Killer want to kill Galzria? It was pretty clear that the town was going to seriously consider lynching him today. I think the SK would want to kill somebody whose pretty much acquitted, and leave the town to deal with Galz.

This is a much stronger argument than your previous post...

I'm not sure that I agree that Grujah "obviously" used his kill on either of them. Yes, it would make some sense, but that forces us to assume that there's another 1-shot vig who used their shot on the other night OR that someone was jailed/protected. Those are of course possible but they don't strike me as highly likely, certainly not as likely as a SK and a woodcutter who wanted to save his kill for when he was more sure.

Your argument for why a SK wouldn't kill Galz applies just as much to a vig kill...why not go for someone who's been more quietly scummy?

I've never been a vig or serial killer (I wouldn't post this if I was this game...) so I don't know exactly what the mindset is but it seems far more strategic to me to use the 1-shot later rather than sooner, when you have a stronger read and a better chance of hitting even at random. To me it seems worth the risk of getting NK'd.

OTOH, jo pointed out that Grujah sort of softclaimed, so maybe he was worried that he would be killed for that.

Like I said, it certainly could be wrong, but I do think some of the reasons you initially gave refuting it are a bit weak.

[Axxle]

Grujah was such a lurker it would not surprise me if he forgot to use his power

[Robz888]

Uh, people with a power generally use it, like immediately. I think a more experienced player might wait. I doubt Grujah would wait. I REALLY doubt he would wait 2 whole night periods.

Though, looking over the roles again... yeah I could be wrong. I was sort of misremembering the potential roles. There is NO Mafia Rolecop, FYI, as I just suggested there could be.

We could have a Vig and a 1-shot vig and one of them got roleblocked. Or I suppose yes, there is a Serial Killer, and they got roleblocked, that's a possibility. But I have trouble imagining anyone who isn't town-aligned deciding to kill Galzria.

[Robz888]

We have 9 people left alive. Probably, 6 of them are aligned with the town. We have already lost 5 townies. That's 11 total townies. Of them, we have a Village Idiot, a One-Shot Vig, and if we believe SFS he is a One-Shot Cop. That's 3 weak-ish roles out of 11 townies. Assumingly, we must have more. I could imagine, let's see, maybe just 1 more role if it's a strong one? Maybe a Doctor?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

You people are forgetting one thing: there is no Serial Killer. At least, it strikes me as pretty unlikely at this point.

We had 2 people die Night 1, and 2 people die Night 2. We can explain 3 of those 4 kills: a mafia kill each night, and Grujah's 1-shot vig kill. I'm assuming Grujah shot Galzria, which makes plenty of sense, or he shot Theorel Day 1, which also would make at least some sense.

So, there's one kill we can't explain. The problem is, if we had a Serial Killer, there should be 2 kills we can't explain: one each night. There are ways to explain this, yes: The Serial Killer was roleblocked one of these nights; the Serial Killer killed both nights and Grujah did not use his vig shot at all; the Serial Killer did kill and the mafia were roleblocked; etc. While these scenarios are possible, what I find most likely is that we simply do not have a Serial Killer.

Separately, I am sure Grujah used his kill on either Theorel or Galzria. Theorel was an Axxle1 voter who had distorted some facts in an argument with Dsell and was all sorts of scummy. Galzria was the next most likely mafia, after O. I would guess that Grujah killed on Night 1, as people with the power to kill usually use it as soon as possible. But I sincerely doubt he wouldn't have used it either night.

It's also possible a Mafia Rolecop discovered that Grujah was a One-Shot Vig on Night 1, and decided to take him out, not knowing whether he had used his power or not.

emphasis mine
I'd like to learn from my mistakes, so I have to ask: If you have the power to kill [as opposed to the power to investigate ], and use it as soon as possible, is that good or bad play?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

@Axxle2 - I just went back and read your post 2338 more carefully, and I think you may be on to something regarding O's trying to paint me with the "he's tight with Frisk" brush if Frisk "went south" as you put it.

In the first O post you quoted, there is a passage where O says "SFS is obvTown" then disclaims a bit in a parenthetical, mentioning lylo.  If I understand lylo correctly, we are still a long way from it. Why would O bring up lylo in this context? Does that give us any additional information?

@Dsell - You were going to go back and concentrate on Frisk.  Anything to report yet?

[jotheonah]

I regret saying Robz was obvtown.

When I was SK in MIII, Robz's post above is exactly what I would have posted if people suddenly started looking for the SK.  Passing the SK off as a series of Vigs, trying to end the hunt before it began. It's more or less the same response he gave when Galz accused him of being SK yesterday: "There is no SK. There are only vigs."

Speaking from experience, I can only say that's exactly what the SK would say.

And, separated from the weight you're inclined to attach to Robz's words because he's Robz, he's so wrong. Vig kills are NOT the most likely explanation for double kills two nights in a row, when the only Vig we know of is a one-shot.  It's definitely the less likely explanation.

So that just leaves the question of why Robz-SK would kill Galzria rather than campaign for his lynch.  But, wait, we know the answer. Galz is the only person in the game to have previously fingered Robz as SK (even though his announcement of that as a gambit took us more or less off the trail). Again speaking from my own experience, as the only person who has played the SK role on this forum, it's quite terrifying to feel like someone is onto you, and it's quite tempting to use your night power to get them out of the picture. Particularly if that also gives you a go-to "I would never target X" excuse in the morning.

I'm sitting pretty confident that Robz888 is a witch. I suggest we burn him, or go back to scum hunting and hope the mafia target him tonight.

[Captain_Frisk]

J has already given you grief for this, but this post of full of problems.

You people are forgetting one thing: there is no Serial Killer. At least, it strikes me as pretty unlikely at this point.

We had 2 people die Night 1, and 2 people die Night 2. We can explain 3 of those 4 kills: a mafia kill each night, and Grujah's 1-shot vig kill. I'm assuming Grujah shot Galzria, which makes plenty of sense, or he shot Theorel Day 1, which also would make at least some sense.

So, there's one kill we can't explain. The problem is, if we had a Serial Killer, there should be 2 kills we can't explain: one each night. There are ways to explain this, yes: The Serial Killer was roleblocked one of these nights; the Serial Killer killed both nights and Grujah did not use his vig shot at all; the Serial Killer did kill and the mafia were roleblocked; etc. While these scenarios are possible, what I find most likely is that we simply do not have a Serial Killer.

Separately, I am sure Grujah used his kill on either Theorel or Galzria. Theorel was an Axxle1 voter who had distorted some facts in an argument with Dsell and was all sorts of scummy. Galzria was the next most likely mafia, after O. I would guess that Grujah killed on Night 1, as people with the power to kill usually use it as soon as possible. But I sincerely doubt he wouldn't have used it either night.

It's also possible a Mafia Rolecop discovered that Grujah was a One-Shot Vig on Night 1, and decided to take him out, not knowing whether he had used his power or not.

At the very least - we are 1 unexplained night kill short.  (Grujah kills theorel or Galzria)

The statement "The problem is, if we had a Serial Killer, there should be 2 kills we can't explain: one each night" - makes no sense. 
Here are some very plausible ways in which we could have 4 night kills (instead of the 5 that you insist we should have)

We have 2 one shot vigs - or we have a vig who only shot once.
We have a vig (who shot twice) / serial killer - who killed both theorel and Galz - and Grujah didn't use his shot.
We have a vig (who shot twice) / serial killer - and Grujah used his shot, and one target / killer was randomly doctored / jailed
We have a vig (who shot twice) / serial killer - and Grujah used his shot, and Grujah's shot was on the same target as the mafia night kill or serial killer kill.

I tend to think that as a one shot vig - I would save my power for when I was damn confident.

I'm sitting pretty confident that Robz888 is a witch. I suggest we burn him, or go back to scum hunting and hope the mafia target him tonight.

This strikes me as a bold claim - not quite as ridiculous as when Galz made it however many thousands of posts ago, but hard to be truly confident on.

[jotheonah]

CF, you must believe that my confidence stems only from the fact that I know of what I speak.  I played as SK. That post has SK trying to get us off the trail written ALL OVER it. And like you pointed out, it sports glaring logical inconsistencies that seem highly out of character for Robz. A slip is a slip, and like pops said, slips are like free money.

Plus, I like to think that if nothing else my rather unique position has afforded me the virtue of being honest and straightforward with my reads, rather than trying to couch them.

[popsofctown]

SK hunting is stupid until you've at least reduced the mafia to one person.  I've played SK only once.  D3 one of the more experienced players on the forum pointed out that my play seemed very consistent with SK behavior.  I had shot 1 scum so far.  They used their lynch on me instead of mafia.  Scum won. 

It doesn't make sense to go for an SK early because the SK tends to shoot for scum.  We're still sufficiently behind that that's how the SK is going to shoot. 


If you want Robz to be your number one SK pick, that's fine, but wait until later.  There may not even be an SK, the most likely explanation for the death pattern is 2 one-shot vigs, and I don't know why people think having two of the same role isn't allowed or something. 

in other news,
The WIFOM in the relational scumhunting is driving me crazy.  It's not my forte.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Pops - while you are being driven crazy by the relational stuff, can you take a moment and answer my question in #2346?

[popsofctown]

Unless you can establsih why you need to know, I won't answer.  I see no reason to broadcast to scum what needs to be faked to earn townreads from me.

[jotheonah]

SK hunting is stupid until you've at least reduced the mafia to one person.  I've played SK only once.  D3 one of the more experienced players on the forum pointed out that my play seemed very consistent with SK behavior.  I had shot 1 scum so far.  They used their lynch on me instead of mafia.  Scum won. 

It doesn't make sense to go for an SK early because the SK tends to shoot for scum.  We're still sufficiently behind that that's how the SK is going to shoot. 


If you want Robz to be your number one SK pick, that's fine, but wait until later.  There may not even be an SK, the most likely explanation for the death pattern is 2 one-shot vigs, and I don't know why people think having two of the same role isn't allowed or something. 

in other news,
The WIFOM in the relational scumhunting is driving me crazy.  It's not my forte.

Two 1-shot vigs who used their powers the first and second nights respectively on highly dubious targets? In what universe is that the most likely explanation. Anyway, there's very little incentive for the other shooter not to go ahead and claim. They're withholding potentially helpful information: namely which kill was the scum kill either night 1 or night 2.

I'll agree with you in general about SK hunting, which is why that post didn't come with a vote. But I'd rather lynch an SK I'm sure about than a mafia I'm unconvinced about.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Unless you can establsih why you need to know, I won't answer.  I see no reason to broadcast to scum what needs to be faked to earn townreads from me.

I suppose that's fair, it's certainly clever.  Let me change the question.  Were you really undecided in 371?

[popsofctown]

yes

[Axxle]

We lynched SK in MIII, and almost lost.  Pops speaks true for now.

[Captain_Frisk]

Unless you can establsih why you need to know, I won't answer.  I see no reason to broadcast to scum what needs to be faked to earn townreads from me.

I find this to be very frustrating - keeping information away from the rest of us makes it harder to read you - which makes everyone's reads more confusing.  It does none of us any good to just say "oh - well this must be fact because pops says so".