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[Galzria]

And I have to chuckle at 22 pages in ~18 hours. It's NUTS to me how adding just a handful more players can add up the post total, even when some are inactive. Anybody care to take bets on # pages at game end?

O can compile our guesses with our names, mod them to the # of players, and use that as his "seconds" marker to determine who his random vote will be on. Closest number wins.

In next game*

[O]

http://xkcd.com/545/

[Galzria]

http://xkcd.com/545/

[Green Opal]

Currently rereading the thread, though I'm only back to where I was yesterday at the moment. I'm at work, so it's spotty as to how long I can be here though.

[Glooble]

Thought I might have time to get in a substantive reply before work, but just catching up on the six pages posted since I went to bed has made me almost miss the bus. Mostly posting this as a placeholder for when I get home, and to let you guys know I'm trying.

[Grujah]

@Galz -
Tables is not off the radar.
I still find his "belif" in Axxle weird, and Axxle's jumpyness as well, as I said, as I said in post #330, like they "share a dirty little secret" and Axxle getting mad for them speaking about it. He hasn't posted since so no much to go on.

Though they might just as well be Masons.


Anyone else feel like SFS's voting Robs was a bit too much trying to avoid answering the question? And than later he still failed to give any input about anyone being suspicious for one or other action or anything.
Ok, not necesarily scummy (I guess scum would accuse somebody, even if just to get the heat off). He just lack an opinion on anyone of anysort, which is not really good.

[theorel]

At least overnight posting was a little more reasonable than afternoon posting.

So, I didn't notice the second article from Axxle about the RVS.  I read the first article (on arguments), and saw it allude to future articles, but I didn't see where that future article was (if it was even from the same person).  It would be nice to have a feel for what someone who wanted to follow those articles would do, but regardless I'll make some comments based on this thread.

It seems to me from a purely practical perspective that if bandwagons are helpful to the town, it's because they can ferret out mafia.  How would they do this?
1: Mafia want to increase suspicion of non-mafia.  This means that they will trumpet the bad reasoning inherent to a bandwagon.
2: Mafia want to be in the middle of the pack of voters, so as to not stand out (presumably).  A bandwagon gives them opportunity to do that.

So, if we stop a bandwagon prematurely (say at 5 or 6 people) it stands to reason that 1-2 of those people is likely mafia (largely dependent on how many Mafia we have in the game).  For future reference (in order to stop excessive caveats) I'm going to assume we have 3 mafia for the course of day 1.  If we have more we have more power roles, better information probable day 2, if we have fewer, we have less power roles, and we're probably gonna be killing a lot of town.  Anyways, if we have 1 mafia in 5 players, it's actually no better probability of hitting one of 3 mafia in 15 players.  However, for any townies on the bandwagon, you've got 1 in 4 if it's true that the mafia are in the bandwagon.  (assuming uniform random choice, which you might be able to improve upon with your 'reads').

Alright, so that's the theoretical position I'm starting from, you may disagree that's fine...So, I'm going to look at the 5 people who voted for Pops before the bandwagon petered out and Galz jumped ship. (I think these are in order of voting, would appreciate correction if I'm wrong)
1. Insomniac: Pops voted for him, he voted back.  Pops thinks he was being overly defensive (Mafia tell, Pops says).  He was arguably even more defensive then, by returning the vote after supposedly getting info out of...( SFS was it?)  Suspicion: Medium

2. O: he plays a random, erratic game.  He voted for Pops early, but he's also in second position, the most suspicious of positions.  Suspicion: lower than Insomniac.

3. Galzria: He pushed the pressure trying to get an answer, did not feel convinced a bit later, and then finally jumped ship, meaning to me that either he's town, or getting out while the getting's good.  Suspicion: low

4. Grujah: I'll be honest, I get Grujah and DSell mixed up.  Their avatars look similar to me for whatever reason.  I've got no decent read on Grujah, I think he's new?  Maybe he's bandwagoning because of that.  He claims to be impressionable, which is bad for town (IMO).  So, Grujah, if you're Town - be Skeptical.  Don't be persuaded by others' arguments, make your own.  Mafia want to persuade you, town want information.  Suspicion: Medium (a little above Insomniac)

5. Axxle: He votes and unvotes and revotes.  I think it's clear that Pops cares little for the pressure he's under.  He's also one of the only 2 people to really interact with me since I started posting, and he was suspicious then unsuspicious.  So, he's hedging, or changing his mind a lot, but this also suggests he's playing somewhat transparently.  If he is mafia, I think he's the second mafia to vote for Pops. So, like the rollercoaster of his own play so are my feelings about him.  Suspicion: Highest of the 5, though not far above Grujah.

Note: everyone should keep in mind that we might have a witch, I use "Mafia", but could replace with "anti-town".  In fact, I find it much more likely that mafia + witch have voted for Pops, then that both Mafia have.

So, to clarify suspicion order (individually) is: Axxle, Grujah, Insomniac, O, Galzria.  If Axxle's mafia, I think one of the other 4 is, which increases the odds on the other 4.  Unfortunately it increases it most for O and Insomniac, if they're mafia (no-change if it's mafia+witch).  I guess that leaves Axxle on top, so that's where I'll vote, until further notice.

Vote: Axxle

Oh, one more thing, then I'll be quiet for a while again (since I have to y'know...work).
The analysis about numerics in whether we're better off lynching no-lynching is thrown completely off by existence of Militia and Witch (and Woodcutter).  If we lynch with one night-kill we maintain odd numbers which is good.  If we lynch with 2 night-kills we go into even number land which is bad (assuming mafia isn't hit).  OTOH: Mafia wants to kill Witch (and Witch mafia), so that's not quite as bad.  I just wanted to throw that out there, since extra night-kills totally throw off the better to lynch or not calculations.  I still think lynching day-1 is preferable because it gives us more information.  I also think that we should push close to a couple lynches before the end of the day ideally.  So, in my view any hammer on an early wagon is a very scummy move.

[Voltgloss]

Fifteen people staggered up out of the Cellar and blinked in the harsh sunlight.  theorel wondered aloud what they should do from here.  Someone muttered something about a "team-building exercise" but was quickly silenced by a chorus of angry glares, three dismissive gestures, and a mild smack to the back of the head. Ultimately, they agreed to split up and look for the portcullis key, perhaps more so to be doing something then just standing around getting angry at each other.

Fifteen people thus made their way separately throughout the Estate grounds.  The Mafia surely would not kill again so brazenly during this day... but could they ferret out one of the killers among them before nightfall?

Vote Count 1-5

Insomniac (1) - popsofctown
Robz888 (1) - SwitchedFromStarcraft
popsofctown (4) - Insomniac, O, Grujah, Axxle
SwitchedFromStarcraft (1) - jotheonah
Axxle (1) - theorel

Not Voting {7} - Robz888, Glooble, Tables, Dsell, Green Opal, Captain_Frisk, Galzria

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

Players comfortable with a discussion quicktopic (12) - Dsell, O, Galzria, Captain_Frisk, Insomniac, jotheonah, Glooble, Green Opal, Axxle, Grujah, Robz888, theorel

[jotheonah]

Good morning 5 new pages. This game has pretty much replaced coffee as the thing that wakes me up in the morning. SFS is less suspicious to me in some ways - for instance, I now see that he is indeed funny, in a wry way. I appreciate it, actually. But more suspicious in others - he's said some incongruous things. Ultimately though, one tell convinces me for the moment to read him town. I don't want to say the tell, because then everyone who is mafia can adjust for it.

Unvote

Another of suspects from that first re-read is Captain_Frisk. He's also a master of flying under the radar, of information without analysis. Even Robz has failed to spot the blah factor to all his posts.

CF, who do you think is mafia and why?

[Galzria]

@Galz -
Tables is not off the radar.
I still find his "belif" in Axxle weird, and Axxle's jumpyness as well, as I said, as I said in post #330, like they "share a dirty little secret" and Axxle getting mad for them speaking about it. He hasn't posted since so no much to go on.

Though they might just as well be Masons.


Anyone else feel like SFS's voting Robs was a bit too much trying to avoid answering the question? And than later he still failed to give any input about anyone being suspicious for one or other action or anything.
Ok, not necesarily scummy (I guess scum would accuse somebody, even if just to get the heat off). He just lack an opinion on anyone of anysort, which is not really good.

Sorry, perhaps I wasn't clear with my statement last night. When I said those 4 (and Green/Tables in particular), I meant that when Volt had posted the latest vote tally, I went "oh yeah! There are still more people in the game!" Their contributions, while present, had come so early and were so short, that they themselves had slipped my conscience brain as being in the village.

Given there is a high likelihood that of 4 people, there is at least 1 non-vanilla town PM, their voices will be very valuable to hear - Both if they come from a Mafia perspective, or a Role perspective.

[Galzria]

Those 4 *were off my radar* - clarification to above.

[Green Opal]

POST IS BEING WRITTEN AFTER #558, AND WILL NOT BE RESPONDING TO ANYTHING BEYOND THAT

Though it looks like things have calmed down somewhat.
So the current resounding logic is that at least one of the people who was voting for pops when he was on 5 is mafia? Given the basis assumption that he's actually town. Pops did eventually go into more detail of his absolutist posting, but 4 votes are still there and Galzria's stating he's not at all convinced. Aside from his 'gut' town read of SFS is there anything making people suspicious? I ask because I'm in what I think is the same boat of feeling somewhat put off by his stifling responses, but outside of those couple of posts he's seemed reasonable.
As for who I am suspicious of:
Robz: I find the degree to which you took a scumtell from SFS's first response following a break quite interesting. You mention the fluffiness of his post, which I can't really disagree with. Thing is, there have been loads of really quite fluffy posts made, especially by some of the newer players (myself and glooble's opening posts from yesterday come to mind, around #248), what made this one stand out? Granted, you're looking in a similar way at Theorel, but that didn't seem to garner as much attention as the SFS debate so I'll look more at that later.

Jonah (sorry, I'm going to use this shortening in the hopes that it's translating through as "J to the onah"): The general vibe I've gotten from you has been "I'm town, honest, but I'm going to play like I'm really mafia for teh lulz". Identifying areas that should be making people suspicious of you for things like the phrasing 'we townies' just comes off as a little odd to me.

As I mentioned earlier I'm in general in favour of the day not stretching out forever and I'm not sure how my access to the game will be for the rest of the (IRL) day, so for now Vote: Jotheonah

[Captain_Frisk]

Another of suspects from that first re-read is Captain_Frisk. He's also a master of flying under the radar, of information without analysis. Even Robz has failed to spot the blah factor to all his posts.

CF, who do you think is mafia and why?

First - thank you for crediting me with master level play.

Second, late afternoon / early evening I got slammed with work - and the thread got ahead of me - I kindof watched it scroll bye and got a kick out of the SFS shennanigans, and then decided to decompress with Diablo 3 instead of deep study of 22 pages of text.  I look to have a bad day in front of me - so I'm probably not going to do it this AM either - at least until lunchtime.

At this point I don't have truly strong suspicions such that make any candidate significantly stronger than another.  I could probably identify a reason for just about everyone here - from either lurking, to erratic posting, then that would be hedging.

I'm acutely aware that any any "analysis" done by town at this stage is done without much information.  I'm not going to talk about MIII - but I think that Mafia I and II both demonstrate that the town can work itself up into a tizzy chasing scummy behavior where there is none.  I especially enjoyed M1 - where the the mafia must have just been rolling on the floor laughing at having 2 town members at L-1 vote.

[Galzria]

Actually, I was just rereading, and there were a few things J said that stood out:

"I'm a Mafia!" Joke, which we all agreed was bad play, got our attention to wander.

"We, Townies" as pointed out, comes across as "I'm a townie, really I am!"

Post #424, he says we shouldn't be looking for Mafia in the vocal crowd, but among the pseudo-lurkers. He also got on SFS early, and kept pushing to see what he could get. This morning, when he logged on to find it sizzled out, he moved on to C.F.

Post #433, he states he believes there are no Mafia voting for Pops. If Pops were Mafia, and had 5 townies voting for him, why wouldn't J vote? If J believes Pops is town as well, he's just cleared SIX people. This seems VERY VERY off to me. Not only from a "how would he know" standpoint, but also a "let's all be friends! Hey guyz, look over here!" standpoint.

I'm still very hesitant about Pops, especially in light of J's post #433, but for now I'll join in saying VOTE: JOTHEONAH

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm still very hesitant about Pops, especially in light of J's post #433, but for now I'll join in saying VOTE: JOTHEONAH

1 - Thanks for saying what I thought was too reactionary.
2 - Do you ever sleep?

[Galzria]

I'm still very hesitant about Pops, especially in light of J's post #433, but for now I'll join in saying VOTE: JOTHEONAH

1 - Thanks for saying what I thought was too reactionary.
2 - Do you ever sleep?

Haha, I was wondering who would catch my posting times as, like, 24 hours. I live West Coast, and spend most the day at work, but as a Poli Sci journalist, election cycles are NUTS. 24-hour coverage basically demands you to be on your toes at all times. Still, there is down time between events, so it's easy to stay current here. It's just a bunch more words, but it's relaxing in a way. It's why I do most of my posting from my mobile instead of a PC though.

Sleep? Between Midnight and 4:00 am on a good day. The consolation is that I get a lot of down time between major election cycles.

[popsofctown]

SFS, I never accused you of deleting a post, I meant preview deletion.
SFS you down with a discussion QT?

Jothenoah is slightly scummy but not enough to get excited, for me at this point. 

Insomniac is still suspicious to me.  Grujah's voting is pretty scummy on paper.

[jotheonah]

Actually, I was just rereading, and there were a few things J said that stood out:

"I'm a Mafia!" Joke, which we all agreed was bad play, got our attention to wander.

"We, Townies" as pointed out, comes across as "I'm a townie, really I am!"

Post #424, he says we shouldn't be looking for Mafia in the vocal crowd, but among the pseudo-lurkers. He also got on SFS early, and kept pushing to see what he could get. This morning, when he logged on to find it sizzled out, he moved on to C.F.

Post #433, he states he believes there are no Mafia voting for Pops. If Pops were Mafia, and had 5 townies voting for him, why wouldn't J vote? If J believes Pops is town as well, he's just cleared SIX people. This seems VERY VERY off to me. Not only from a "how would he know" standpoint, but also a "let's all be friends! Hey guyz, look over here!" standpoint.

I'm still very hesitant about Pops, especially in light of J's post #433, but for now I'll join in saying VOTE: JOTHEONAH

Well, I said "I'm not convinced anyone on that bandwagon is scum ATM (at the moment). Maybe Grujah." You're rather brusquely translating that as a pops-esque "Nope. They're all definitely town." A more accurate translation is "At this moment, all of the people voting for pops seem to be voting for pops for sensible reasons that read town. Except Grujah." So that doesn't in any way imply I think pops is town, either. So at MOST I "cleared" 4 people. But really I just said, 4 people aren't high on my personal scum radar at this point in time.

Instead, I'm focusing my attention on the people who aren't drawing massive amounts of attention with wierd play. I made a case for SFS to draw him out, got a lot more information about him, and then rethought my read. When I logged on, SFS was FAR from fizzled out. Robz was still suspicious of him, as was Dsell, I think others.  But even when I posted my "I have been scumhunting and here's who I accuse" post, I did say I had multiple suspects. I thought it would be more instructive to air them one at a time then all at once and muddle things up. So when I had gotten some info from SFS, I moved on to CF.

Are we satisfied? How else can I be of assistance?

[jotheonah]

Clearing people for the whole group = bad, blinding mafia play.
(tentatively) Clearing people for my own personal scumhunt = necessary for maintaining sanity/productivity

[Galzria]

I'm still very hesitant about Pops, especially in light of J's post #433, but for now I'll join in saying VOTE: JOTHEONAH

1 - Thanks for saying what I thought was too reactionary.
2 - Do you ever sleep?

Oh, and thank you for chiming in on that. I'm interested in hearing others thoughts on his actions to date.

[Tables]

Oh man, I wake up and find there's about 15 pages. I'm not going to be able to keep up my normal rate of note taking in this game .

Also as a reminder to everyone, I'm in a different time zone to all of you and generally will only be online 1-2 times per day. So don't jump down my throat for being inactive.

Regarding my position on Axxle: It was extremely early in the game, and no discussion was taking place (that was useful, at least). I had very little reason to suspect anyone, but the first thing Axxle did was post an extremely useful (to town) article. As scum, he had little reason to do so, so it seemed like a good town play. What I've read so far (up to page 10) also suggests him to be town. But at the time, I was slightly more confident in him than anyone else and so wanted to make the controversial statement to kickstart discussion.

As for everything else, expect a longish post in maybe an hour?

[popsofctown]

Welcome
http://xkcd.com/327/

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

@SFS but you followed it up with this post in the very same page, discouraging our joking demeanor:

 

Vote: Quicktopic

@O: Puppies of large dogs are cute. I've not encountered puppies of yappy-type dogs enough times to form an opinion on them.
I'm fine with smart children, but there are a lot of obnoxious, loud, undisciplined children that I prefer to stay clear of me.
I think this is where I say: God Bless America.

UNVOTE
Vote: Axxle (for the above post)

@ALL: Can we get more focused on gleaning actionable information?  This is going to be incredibly unwieldy 6 weeks from now at the end of Day 3, when there could still be as many as 12 people in the game.

I didn't think this was an attempt at humor, I thought it was just goobledeygook.  Didnt realize it was actually a requested response from another player, which has since been clarified by Axxle.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Is the reversal of a question bad etiquette, or are you just ducking?

Given that you were asked first and never answered..

I answered to the best of my abilities in 506 and 519.

Now you MUST answer this:  Tell me why you think "How the hell would I know?  It's day one and I've never played the silly game.  I'm still building some sort of system by which to measure/decipher/track the game state, so I've not yet had the luxury of inferences." in 519 is my having "never answered".

UNVOTE
VOTE: ROBZ888 (because now I'm irked)

Try to understand. Your answer: "I suspect no one, I don't know anything," doesn't give me much to go off. You might as well have said nothing. This is why my suspicions tend to land on people who say things like that--because the mafia are the group of people who want to hedge, not say anything incriminating, etc. Especially if they are new players. Do you understand me?

I will tell you that I found Grujah jumping to vote Pops a little odd. And Theorel's post struck me as straight out of the mafia playbook.

Please don't vote for people who irk you. Vote for the mafia.

I do understand that "I suspect no one, I don't know anything," doesn't give you much to go off of.  I disagree that it accomplished the same thing for you as if I had said nothing, because saying nothing is non-responsive.  I'm going to treat non-responsive as suspicious, so I'm tracking all my requests for information.  I've already said I intend to be fully accountable for what I say and I stand by that.  My only two luxuries in this game are a) I don't have to worry about saying anything incriminating, because I'm town, and b) I'm not gonna get worked up about the outcome, because it's my first game.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Which leads me to Epiphany #4:  I'm going to suck at this game.  Oh well.

I'm going to bed.  The vote for Robz stands, because removing it now might imply (see #534) that I think he is NOT mafia, and I don't know that he is not.

Tricksy hobbitses.

If you downplay your own ability to play this game one more time, I am going to vote for you. And I don't vote lightly!

Oops, I guess I've crossed that line again.  I'm answering posts in order while catching up.  That might be a less than optimal method.