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[O]

Zomg, it was posted on Mafiascum, it's now mafiabible.


But seriously:

A) RVS doesn't mention anything about Jokes or Humor, which most of the random votes have been (notable exception: Popsofctown)
B) The article is aimed at experienced mafia group play. Which we aren't
C) The article itself is heavily debated in the comments

[jotheonah]

The mafia is essentially playing a part. They are one thing, they are pretending to be something other. We, on the other hand, have the option of being authentic. Every joke that pops into my head, I can make. Every joke that pops into a mafia player's head, he must evaluate. This is their greatest weakness and our greatest strength.

I guess if our play were truly erratic it would be easy to fake, but I think O and I (and Galz and pops - whomever you consider erratic) each have a consistent voice that will emerge even in our unorthodox play. The mafioso's voice will emerge as less consistent, on account of his or her hidden agenda.

[Captain_Frisk]

@Galzria

I think that concientious town players will be hyperaware of the possibility of mafia-led bandwagons. Anyone accumulating a critical mass of votes in a short time is not a good lynch target.

We can't be looking for obvious tells, but we should hunt for subconcious ones. Robz expressed (in MIII) that when he played as mafia (in MII) he wrote a lot of posts and deleted them. Mafia are playing carefully. So I think people playing carelessly are less likely to be scum (myself included). Of course, that does not preclude the possibility of carefully trying to appear careless. Still, I think our rapid-fire posting should make it hard to fake erratic play (i.e. think carefully about appearing not to think carefully). Should our hypothetical mafioso then decide his or her only defense is to actually stop being so careful, well great - all the more likely they'll slip up in some actionable way.

So, to conclude, we should all play like O until someone looks scummy.

So - rather than thoughtful posts - we should flood the forum with random stuff?  Despite my troll-vote on Galzria, I don't have an issue with some humor. 

1. We are playing a game.  Presumably we are doing this for fun. 
2. As pops pointed out about 30 pages back - it does demonstrate a sense of levity that a paranoid mafioso might not feel.

That said - O - can you clarify this post below?  Why would you guess that analysis is anti-town?  If you're going to claim your voting record in M1 as a success, how did you save TINAS without analysis?

Really? Humor is anti-town D1? Hell, I'd have guessed analysis is anti-town D1.

So... you're saying I shouldn't claim Jester? (I still claim jester, BTW)

And guys.. how do I do random voting with 15 people. I don't want to give 4 people byes.

The only thing that I have issue with are players who post frequently with 0 substance.  I don't see any of that here yet, although its still early.

[Galzria]

@Axxle

Yes, I do think it's harder to play erratically as Mafia. Every thought I made in M-II was calculated. I would've found rapid-fire banter much harder to keep honest. I won't go so far as to use that to explain the different outcomes of our two first games, as Roles (and a lack thereof) were just as important. But I absolutely think this style of play is harder to hide in than M-II for Mafia.

[Grujah]

J - you seem to, very often, have the need to say:
"we, townies". Like, you repeat that you are, in fact, townie.  This last post, but few before too.

Why?

[Glooble]

I'm not sold on the article. particularly this bit:

"By creating band wagons over a minorly scummy thing, you take the game out of the area of randomness, and into the realm of information. As people react to these bandwagons, as well as votes, you will get more information, which will create less random votes, and less random bandwagons. This is how we progress to better information. "

I feel like the people doing "minorly scummy things" at the beginning of day one are almost always more likely to be disoriented townies than scum. I guess if you don't let the bandwagons get to the hammer stage they can glean you a fair amount of information, and maybe that's what he's getting at? But I don't see it.

On the other hand, Axxle giving us these articles makes him seem very town to me, since he's trying to make everyone better at scumhunting, and that's not something Mafia would want to do. But I suppose it could be some kind of double bluff? Idk, Axxle is reading very town to me right now.

[O]

That said - O - can you clarify this post below?  Why would you guess that analysis is anti-town?  If you're going to claim your voting record in M1 as a success, how did you save TINAS without analysis?

As much as I hate to retract on previous statements (it makes one a prime target for a bandwagon), I'd have to say your argument is compelling. I certainly analysed TINAS to the point where I thought "he claimed Vanilla townie and is acting nuts... yet a bandwagon is on him early" that lead me to believe him a non-vanilla townie.

I think I mean moreso that strictly analysis in a game- and going with whoever's analysis is the most convincing, is harmful. This is because mafia players tend (obviously people like Galzria break this) to speak with more conviction when analyzing, which means people are more likely to agree with mafia analysis than town analysis.

[jotheonah]

J - you seem to, very often, have the need to say:
"we, townies". Like, you repeat that you are, in fact, townie.  This last post, but few before too.

Why?

That's an excellent catch. I guess I noticed that a lot of people (not necessarily in this game) say "If I WERE mafia" a lot, as if their admitting the possibility seems more town. And I did that a lot in M-II.  But in keeping with my whole being maximally authentic thing, I'm just not worrying about self-identifying as town. I am town. But I can totes see that being a tell. It should make you slightly more suspicious of me.

[Dsell]

Every joke that pops into my head, I can make. Every joke that pops into a mafia player's head, he must evaluate.

I pretty much agree with the content of your post except for this quote, or rather the first part of the quote. I think that some jokes, as well as other posts, are better left unsaid. One of your very first posts in this game, claiming mafia, is a good example. I think there is a lot of risk in being a stupid townie. Erratic is one thing, but there are a lot of things that you can say that can put unnecessary suspicion on yourself. Joking around is fine but I think there is a point at which you can cross into "stupid townie" range (if the person in question is in fact a townie) and risk getting lynched. There is always a risk of getting lynched as a townie but severely exacerbating that risk is really bad town play.

[Axxle]

Does anyone else get this vibe from Theorel's post?

"Hey guys, I'll be lurking, but if you want to let me know your stance on everything I'll be sure to copy your thoughts exactly. Oh, and let me live to Day 2 and then I promise to keep up.  Really.  Pinky promise. 
Yours truly, Mafia XOXO"


@O: Someone asked how people suggest how to actively scumhunt, and this is one way.  Some humor is fine, but it gets distracting very fast.  That line of trollvotes was a big example of that.

Pre-edit: If I was mafia and saw that everyone was taking this game as a joke and not seriously I'd turn off any tactics I had and just join in on the fun.  What mistakes are you going to make if you do that? None unless your partners don't do the same and end up getting caught.

Pre-edit2: @Glooble: Creating bandwagons to get information is a very good idea.  It's what I tried to fake in Mafia I and ultimately got caught doing.

Too many preedits, this is after gloobles last post.

[O]

I'm not sold on the article. particularly this bit:

"By creating band wagons over a minorly scummy thing, you take the game out of the area of randomness, and into the realm of information. As people react to these bandwagons, as well as votes, you will get more information, which will create less random votes, and less random bandwagons. This is how we progress to better information. "

I feel like the people doing "minorly scummy things" at the beginning of day one are almost always more likely to be disoriented townies than scum. I guess if you don't let the bandwagons get to the hammer stage they can glean you a fair amount of information, and maybe that's what he's getting at? But I don't see it.

On the other hand, Axxle giving us these articles makes him seem very town to me, since he's trying to make everyone better at scumhunting, and that's not something Mafia would want to do. But I suppose it could be some kind of double bluff? Idk, Axxle is reading very town to me right now.

Grabbing up allies? Axxle could just as easily be putting forth articles that allow his mafia playstyle to dominate.
Not that I don't appreciate the articles; it gives me a great chance to try and refute them.

[Galzria]

J, I believe the people who SAY things that are Pro-Town, but DO things that invariably have a divisive outcome to appear scummy. I look for people who's actions don't meet their words. It's part of the reason I opened with such direct questions at so many of you. For the people I didn't, I've tried to get some interaction with on other fronts.

I've made pretty clear that I don't believe in obvious tells. Mafia can take all day to type/retype their posts into perfection. One thing I realized from Axxle's article is that you can't debate with your suspects. They will never respond in a fashion that "adds" to their scummyness. Instead you can present a case against someone (anyone) and watch/evaluate everyone else's responses. The person you accuse, town or Mafia, is likely going to respond the same regardless.

At the end of the day, Mafia succeed by being very low on the suspects pole. They can do this through friendship (Me/You in M-II), or long winded explanations that generally look like sound reasoning (like this post? *gulp*).

Having played Mafia to success with the long, reasoned posts, I am all for trying to take that tool away from them, and keep the party rolling. I find there is just as much information out there, and perhaps we'll cause them to slip up, as they don't have the time to stay polished.

[Glooble]

I'm not sold on the article. particularly this bit:

"By creating band wagons over a minorly scummy thing, you take the game out of the area of randomness, and into the realm of information. As people react to these bandwagons, as well as votes, you will get more information, which will create less random votes, and less random bandwagons. This is how we progress to better information. "

I feel like the people doing "minorly scummy things" at the beginning of day one are almost always more likely to be disoriented townies than scum. I guess if you don't let the bandwagons get to the hammer stage they can glean you a fair amount of information, and maybe that's what he's getting at? But I don't see it.

On the other hand, Axxle giving us these articles makes him seem very town to me, since he's trying to make everyone better at scumhunting, and that's not something Mafia would want to do. But I suppose it could be some kind of double bluff? Idk, Axxle is reading very town to me right now.

Grabbing up allies? Axxle could just as easily be putting forth articles that allow his mafia playstyle to dominate.
Not that I don't appreciate the articles; it gives me a great chance to try and refute them.

Interesting possibility. I suppose we could analyze how the articles say to play mafia and see if Axxle is playing that way?

In game II, there was a lot of analysis of hunches vs. evidence. My hunches aren't telling me anyone is scum right now except maybe pops and possibly O (though as I said, I'm pretty sure this is just how he plays regardless of his role.) My hunches are telling me that Robz, Galz, and Axxle are all more likely-than-not town, but I didn't suspect Galz AT ALL in MII, so clearly he is very good.

Evidence - requires more time. Sorry. I got three pages into making a spreadsheet and realized I didn't have the energy tonight.

[Captain_Frisk]

Evidence - requires more time. Sorry. I got three pages into making a spreadsheet and realized I didn't have the energy tonight.

Whats great about this is that tomorrow you will have 5 more pages to deal with.... 

[Galzria]

Evidence - requires more time. Sorry. I got three pages into making a spreadsheet and realized I didn't have the energy tonight.

Whats great about this is that tomorrow you will have 5 more pages to deal with....

Well, M-III went to the 1 week deadline with 30+ pages. We have a 3 week deadline here... Oh good lord.

[Glooble]

Evidence - requires more time. Sorry. I got three pages into making a spreadsheet and realized I didn't have the energy tonight.

Whats great about this is that tomorrow you will have 5 more pages to deal with....

True. It may be a losing battle. Maybe I should just fill it out as I read new pages and worry about catching up later, on the assumption that later posts will have more useful information anyway. Either way, as things seem to have slowed down, I'm gonna sign off and try and get some writing done.

[Robz888]

Hello everyone.

I might be able to provoke an argument this way: I am actually fine with not killing anyone on Day 1 if I don't believe we have a good chance of actually killing a mafia member. (When I argued otherwise in Mafia II, I was a member of the mafia).

I'm not voting 'No Lynch,' and I'm not saying that should be the goal--but if we run out of time, and we have no reason to suspect anyone more than anybody else... it's better to have an additional townsperson alive on Day 2 rather than mislynch. In my view, at least.

Do you really think we'll run out of time, given the late deadline and how much talking we've done in less than ten hours? I think I agree with you in general, but I'm having a hard time seeing how, given the amount of information we'll likel have even just at the end of this week, we won't have a better-than-random chance of hitting scum.

I would rather have a Vanilla Town lynched than not lynch at all. Even if it's me. The math simply supports that being the better move. I would also rather lynch a VT than a Role. And above all that, I would rather lynch Mafia.

[/quote]

This is just a disagreement between me and Galzria. I would rather lynch no townie than a Vanilla Townie. The more innocent people alive at any given time, the better. Though I do not want to go all the way to the deadline either. I plan to vote for someone eventually, as I always do, but I won't compromise just so we get a kill, any kill.

Now, a word on humor and the mafia:

We can't be looking for obvious tells, but we should hunt for subconcious ones. Robz expressed (in MIII) that when he played as mafia (in MII) he wrote a lot of posts and deleted them. Mafia are playing carefully. So I think people playing carelessly are less likely to be scum (myself included). Of course, that does not preclude the possibility of carefully trying to appear careless. Still, I think our rapid-fire posting should make it hard to fake erratic play (i.e. think carefully about appearing not to think carefully). Should our hypothetical mafioso then decide his or her only defense is to actually stop being so careful, well great - all the more likely they'll slip up in some actionable way.

When I deleted posts in Mafia II, I wasn't deleting funny or erratic posts. I was deleting purposeful, substantive, evidence-based, accusatory posts. I had crafted a terrific additional to the encyclopedia on why we should kill Kuildeous in Round 2... and then I deleted it. Why? I decided it was against my interests. People weren't talking about me, and they were moving toward K anyway. Why take a risk? Some of the posts I deleted were responses to questions directed at me. Why bring it up again, if it was somewhat past and the person wasn't going to pursue it? Things like that.

My point is I wasn't writing and then deleting useless or funny posts. Those are easy for anyone to make, and they don't tend to be incriminate especially early on. So, I tend to suspect people making a lot of them. I am inclined to believe the mafia are in a constant state of, "I need to say something! What should I say?" paranoia. Maybe not, but that's how I felt when I was mafia. So I look at substance free posts and they make me suspicious, now.

That doesn't mean I don't appreciate humor, and it doesn't me I suspect every person who posts something silly or stupid. Especially in this game, where so many people are posting substance-less things, my method is a little challenged, right now. And I know Galzria has a specific way of playing, and so does O, and so it's not like their weird posts really stick out to me. Anyway, I'll have to look back at some point and see who appears to be most guilty of this without mitigating factors (by mitigating, I mean being Galzria or O).

Oh, and I don't mind there being a quicktopic or any other form of outside game discussion amongst non-players and the dead.

I might not be back for awhile. I tend to post between noone and 5:00 PM (EST) and then again after midnight until 3:00 AM.

[theorel]

Yay, I read all the way from my previous post to here.  (primarily posted to mark the spot..but I'll mention a couple things)

@Axxle: yeah, I'm not sure if I'll be able to break lurking habits.  If you look me up, you'll find that I don't tend to post a lot anywhere.  (I don't know how long I've been registered here with my remarkable 8 posts, but it's been a while, and I read a while before that too).  Anyways, I'll try to provide useful information to the town, and I'll push myself to post some.  I almost posted in the area of those first three posts, but couldn't come up with what to post.

-to the other part, I do think it would be good for everyone to go back through posts, and try to glean information from what we already have, and move forward using that information to gain more.  It sounds like it's mostly been non-serious voting...Glooble's suggested he'll be trying to tabulate info, which sounds like a reasonable idea.  Regardless of any analysis that's done, in my opinion (based on lurking and thinking) it's most important that people draw their own conclusions.  Try as hard as possible, not to be swayed by others' arguments, skepticism is the town's strongest weapon in my opinion (bandwagons being Mafia's).  If 4 people go into a vote, you should be analyzing the arguments harder, because as people we have a natural tendency to want to appear smart by aligning our views with others (even when they're wrong).

-Galzria's post is very well-pointed though towards what went wrong (IMO) in Mafia-II.  People listened to Galzria's/Robz's words and ignored actions.  That's what I noticed while lurking there: everyone who lynched Morgrim (except himself) lived...every one of them.  That said, I think well analyzed posts are helpful to town...we need to use the info we have to attempt to gain more.

Anyways, now to read the rest of this mammoth thread.

[popsofctown]

Theorel, reading the the thread at least once is best thing you can do for a mafia game.

Since the complaining started I have been trying to stay very to the point for the catchups.

[jotheonah]

I just reread the whole thread. I now have suspects. One of them is Switched From Starcraft, master of the contentless-post and the barely-not-lurking, utterly uninvolved in rapidfire exchanges of any sort, and quick to vote, with little explanation, for the guy that already had two votes on him.

Thoughts?

[popsofctown]

I might use . instead.  That wouldnt cause much problem would it?

OK, it's not going to be possible for me to play this game without humor.  It's who I am, and the game is supposed to be fun.  I typed and deleted (about 3 times) in my opening post the following, and should have just left it in:

I will be using humor (and potentially emoticons) in my posts.  If that gets me lynched, so be it.  This is a game of evaluations, and if I am lynched because I say something intended to be funny, it will help me evaluate my game experience.

You have all been warned!

This is actually the sort of post that should give you an obvtown or obvscum, depending on the correct interpretation.
I'm not sure which I favor yet.

[popsofctown]

It's town.  Lay off him.  Let's move onward.

[O]

It's town.  Lay off him.  Let's move onward.

Vote:Popsofctown for being Galzria-Confident on steroids, to the point of trying to stifle conversation.

[Dsell]

It's town.  Lay off him.  Let's move onward.

Yeah what the heck man? I was about to post something giving my input on the matter, but I guess it's solved now? He is cleared for the rest of the game?

[Galzria]

I just reread the whole thread. I now have suspects. One of them is Switched From Starcraft, master of the contentless-post and the barely-not-lurking, utterly uninvolved in rapidfire exchanges of any sort, and quick to vote, with little explanation, for the guy that already had two votes on him.

Thoughts?

My thoughts are that it's interesting that both you and pops found him worth note in a 3 minute span, during a quiet time. Now, there's no day communication, so I can't suspect foul play there... But Pops immediately then claiming "nope, he's town, I've decided and we should no longer have any discussion on this" does bother me.