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[The_Wine_Merchant]

I don't know if this is the right move or not, but I think it is so I am going to do it.

I am a 1-shot Cop. On Night1 I investigated gkrieg and I received a town result. So 2/3 town for him, plus he has been townie throughout the game. But at this stage I think I want to get this information out there as I think it will help with narrowing down who mafia is most likely to be.

I don't know if we want to do additional claiming or not.

Well. So wine and Gkrieg are definitely on the same team.

Presumably town

Well, of course, there is the off chance that he is the Godfather.

[gkrieg13]

I don't know if this is the right move or not, but I think it is so I am going to do it.

I am a 1-shot Cop. On Night1 I investigated gkrieg and I received a town result. So 2/3 town for him, plus he has been townie throughout the game. But at this stage I think I want to get this information out there as I think it will help with narrowing down who mafia is most likely to be.

I don't know if we want to do additional claiming or not.

Well. So wine and Gkrieg are definitely on the same team.

Presumably town

I think this was definitely a good thing to claim, considering there were a lot of people that thought I was scum.  I think this also clears TWM in my eyes.  I will have to go back and reread him to make sure I believe the claim.

[EFHW]

I don't know if this is the right move or not, but I think it is so I am going to do it.

I am a 1-shot Cop. On Night1 I investigated gkrieg and I received a town result. So 2/3 town for him, plus he has been townie throughout the game. But at this stage I think I want to get this information out there as I think it will help with narrowing down who mafia is most likely to be.

I don't know if we want to do additional claiming or not.

I wish you had said something Day 2. Why 2/3?

[gkrieg13]

I don't know if this is the right move or not, but I think it is so I am going to do it.

I am a 1-shot Cop. On Night1 I investigated gkrieg and I received a town result. So 2/3 town for him, plus he has been townie throughout the game. But at this stage I think I want to get this information out there as I think it will help with narrowing down who mafia is most likely to be.

I don't know if we want to do additional claiming or not.

I wish you had said something Day 2. Why 2/3?

He's accounting for the fact that I might be the Godfather.

[EFHW]

So from the perspective of anyone who is VT, we most likely have BBET##.

[EFHW]

BBCT## also possible

[Awaclus]

Quite a bit actually, I know for some reason people hate relying on cases that are older than a day, but he was brought to L-1 day one for being scummy and the interaction of the soft claim situation with robz. Similarly to how jake flipping town makes me feel a bit scummy toward roadrunner, robz being the lynch ending day one and being town I see awaclus as slightly scummy. I really didn't like his answer for lurking all of day 2 by stating he felt it was the best thing to do as a claimed or, to let others make cases and simply give opinions. There is also the claim, which I have never believed, I've mentioned countless times how safe a claim it is for scum to make. There is part of me that finds him less scummy than I did because I saw a lot of Faust/awa connections which now mean something totally different than had faust been scum.

I have already debunked this case.

[mcmcsalot]

@efhw why does there have to be at least one T?

[The_Wine_Merchant]

I don't know if this is the right move or not, but I think it is so I am going to do it.

I am a 1-shot Cop. On Night1 I investigated gkrieg and I received a town result. So 2/3 town for him, plus he has been townie throughout the game. But at this stage I think I want to get this information out there as I think it will help with narrowing down who mafia is most likely to be.

I don't know if we want to do additional claiming or not.

I wish you had said something Day 2. Why 2/3?

I wasn't sure when it was best to say something. It was a mix of trying to make sure I wasn't giving away information to mafia unnecessarily. If gkrieg had gotten close to being lynched I certainly would have brought it up.

And yes, the 2/3 thing is godfather. Not that he has a 2/3 chance of mafia.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Like I mentioned I'll have somewhat limited availability for about 24 - 36 hours. Have a buddy flying in and spending part of the weekend.

I'll check in once or twice here and there, but won't be able to get to that large reread until probably Sunday or Monday.

[Awaclus]

Isn't 2/3 chance of being town pretty close to what the odds would be without any cop results anyway?

[Awaclus]

I suppose it's slightly better now that a bunch of townies have died.

[EFHW]

@efhw why does there have to be at least one T?

We've had 4 so far.  Anyone who is VT knows there are at least 5 VT's.  At least two come from filling up the roles to 12 since the 6 rolls can yield at most 6 roles (haha). EEE, EEEE, CCC and CCCC all yield one less role per roll. So that accounts for a possible third VT. BBBB and BBBBB also give one less role per roll, so that accounts for a possible 4th VT.  The 5th is unaccounted for and would be from a roll.  I really doubt we have BBBB or BBBBB, because how could all those people have kept quiet?  But there are other letters that yield fewer roles than rolls, so the 4th VT could still be filler. We don't have enough letters to account for a 5th filler VT.

[EFHW]

I suppose it's slightly better now that a bunch of townies have died.

2/3 isn't really accurate, because that assumes gkrieg is scum. 9 people were alive last night, we don't think Joseph or Awaclus are godfathers, and TWM says he isn't one, so out of 6 remaining people, who would be his target pool for scumhunting, 1 is the godfather.  So the chances of TWM getting a true result are 5/6. I think that's the relevant number here.

[EFHW]

I forgot it was N1.  There were 11 people alive, the same three would have been ruled out, so 8 possibles and 1 godfather, 7/8 chance he got a true result. 

[EFHW]

If he considered Awaclus a possible godfather then 8/9.

[EFHW]

If he considered Awaclus a possible godfather then 8/9.

Or rather, if you think Awaclus could be the godfather then you would think the chances of getting a true result were 8/9.

[EFHW]

Sorry for all the posts, but if we take the 3 known townies we learned about since then into consideration, we know they all had 0 chance of being the godfather. So 5/6 was the correct number.  If you are town, then there are only 5 possible godfathers and the odds of a true result are 4/5.

[gkrieg13]

I think the odds are a little different than that (where is Calamitas or SA when you need them!).  But either way, it shows that the chance that he copped the Godfather are small enough that people should consider me an IC if you believe TWM.

Which is nice because with Joseph, TWM, and me, that means that to any other townie, they just need to find the town left in the other 4 people.

[Roadrunner7671]

I'm calling right now that this is a ploy and the scamteam is gkreig/TWM/x. This seems way too convenient. TWM happens to be a PR at MyLo, and he clears gkrieg, his partner who was under fire. Gkrieg then accepts this, not suspicious at all as to why he would've been investigated N1.

What did gkrieg do D1 to warrant an investigation? 

[gkrieg13]

I'm calling right now that this is a ploy and the scamteam is gkreig/TWM/x. This seems way too convenient. TWM happens to be a PR at MyLo, and he clears gkrieg, his partner who was under fire. Gkrieg then accepts this, not suspicious at all as to why he would've been investigated N1.

What did gkrieg do D1 to warrant an investigation?

Uh...  Do you remember that I was like crazy close to getting lynched D1?

[Awaclus]

With this claim in mind, I think that mass claiming is substantially better now.

[Roadrunner7671]

I'm calling right now that this is a ploy and the scamteam is gkreig/TWM/x. This seems way too convenient. TWM happens to be a PR at MyLo, and he clears gkrieg, his partner who was under fire. Gkrieg then accepts this, not suspicious at all as to why he would've been investigated N1.

What did gkrieg do D1 to warrant an investigation?

Uh...  Do you remember that I was like crazy close to getting lynched D1?

No I didn't 

But why would that make him want to invest you? Your lynch would've been informative and if your wagon got run up on D2, people might not believe TWM or not care.

[mcmcsalot]

I too thought to myself why is town!twm voicing this information now. As opposed to when either of them have a wagon, or simply toward the end of day incase he is night killed. I guess it makes sense if people are debating claiming and you have relevant information which requires you to claim, maybe you just go ahead and do it.

I'm still not sure massclaiming is smart. The fact of the matter is with no scum flips, we have no way of actually figuring out the setup. A massclaim could very well lead to a setup that fits and we will have no idea if scum is lyning about being a vt or lying about being a pr and there are more T's than we think.

[mcmcsalot]

With this claim in mind, I think that mass claiming is substantially better now.

I'm open to it but explain why massclaiming is better now that we have someone claiming a single letter role?

I think the odds of us catching scum from a massclaim are still less than the odds of us blocking a nk.