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[Calamitas]

We did have a NK?

An additional one due to the vig I meant.

I think LaLight might have been a Vig kill.

Hmm, don't think scum would choose to not kill here. Assume the vig would have struck home, would be really ugly for scum then.
But sure, if that is the case the vig shouldn't claim since scum would'nt know their identity.
So I think we should let a vig claim if their target was any different than LaLight and otherwise not. And in case of no claim we shouldn't lynch then.

[mcmcsalot]

Robz, do you want to lynch for any specific reason besides lynchpool reduction? Because that doesn't apply here.

Can you reword or explain this?

Usually you want to no-lynch here to force mafia to kill and reach a better chance to hit scum the day after. That doesn't apply here though (because of our vig).  So I wanted to ask whether you have any other reasons to be in favor of no-lynch here.

What does the Vig have to do with it?

Scum knows who the vig is (since we would otherwise have had a nk) and could take him out tonight. A claimed vig would be an IC so we wouldn't gain a smaller lynchpool in contrast to have the vig claim. And the latter scenario gives us the advantage of an additional kill if we manage to lynch the scum-rb.

This is true, so if we lynch scum we go to 2 town/1 scum, and scum will almost certainty kill the vig so as not to give town 50/50. So vig should claim.

[Witherweaver]

We did have a NK?

An additional one due to the vig I meant.

I think LaLight might have been a Vig kill.

Hmm, don't think scum would choose to not kill here. Assume the vig would have struck home, would be really ugly for scum then.
But sure, if that is the case the vig shouldn't claim since scum would'nt know their identity.
So I think we should let a vig claim if their target was any different than LaLight and otherwise not. And in case of no claim we shouldn't lynch then.

They could have just been blocked or target protected.  There are also Commuters in this setup.

Well, I guess it's worth any of those things claiming. 

[mcmcsalot]

We did have a NK?

An additional one due to the vig I meant.

I think LaLight might have been a Vig kill.

Hmm, don't think scum would choose to not kill here. Assume the vig would have struck home, would be really ugly for scum then.
But sure, if that is the case the vig shouldn't claim since scum would'nt know their identity.
So I think we should let a vig claim if their target was any different than LaLight and otherwise not. And in case of no claim we shouldn't lynch then.

With no claim and no lynch doesn't mafia just kill the vig and we are in worse shape than if the vig claims now even if they did shoot lalight?

[Witherweaver]

Why does Mafia know who Vig is?

[SpaceAnemone]

We did have a NK?

An additional one due to the vig I meant.

I think LaLight might have been a Vig kill.

I agree he didn't look terribly townie compared to you or (probably?) me, so I'd have expected one of us to go. However, if he's a vig kill, then the scums pretty much must have done a deliberate no-killed, which would be a super-weird plan. I mean, I think they've got a strongman and a RB, so there's not really anything town can do to stop them. Maybe the one corner case is a very lucky one-shot commuter, depending on how the resolution order for RB and commuting works.

PPE: 5

[mcmcsalot]

Why does Mafia know who Vig is?

We think that because there was only one night kill last 2 nights.

Silverspawn - VT D1(L)
Gkrieg - VT N1(NK)
Teamlyle - Restless Spirit N1(NK) (probably the vig kill)

Jreggie - VT D2(L)
Paco - JK D2(NK)

Eevee - 2shot ninja D3(L)
Lalight - VT N3(NK)

[Robz888]

Yeah, I think I agree. I am the Vig.

[Witherweaver]

Restless Spirit: V
Vig: KK (could not have been PGO, right?)
Jaillkeeper: BB

Okay so only one role is possible, which eliminates Protection, Blocking. 

PPE

[Witherweaver]

Yeah, I think I agree. I am the Vig.

Why Teamlyle?

[Robz888]

I shot teamlyle because Calamitas's analysis made sense if we didn't have to actually waste a lynch to do it.

Two nights ago I shot at Eevee, to save time since I thought we would lynch him anyway and that would clear things up ahead of time. That failed.

Last night I shot at mcmc, which also failed.

[mcmcsalot]

Day 1 Final Vote Count

Eevee (1): Witherweaver
teamlyle (3): Calamitas, mcmcsalot, silverspawn
silverspawn (7): Eevee, SpaceAnemone, teamlyle, gkrieg13, LaLight, pacovf, J Reggie
J Reggie (1): Robz888

Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it took 7 to lynch.

Day 2 Final Vote Count

LaLight (2): Calamitas, SpaceAnemone
Eevee (2): J Reggie, pacovf
J Reggie (5): LaLight, Robz888, Eevee, teamlyle, Witherweaver

Not voting (1): mcmcsalot

With 9 alive, it took 5 to lynch. Twilight starts now and ends at 9:31 am forum time tomorrow.

Day 3 Final Vote Count

Eevee (4): Robz888, mcmcsalot, LaLight, Witherweaver

Not Voting (4): Calamitas, SpaceAnemone, Eevee, teamlyle

With 7 alive, it took 4 to lynch. Twilight ends around 7:30 pm forum time.

[Robz888]

I thought maybe my Eevee shot failed because I was jailed, but my shot failing twice makes me think I've been roleblocked over and over again, which I could see mcmc doing.

[Witherweaver]

Then McMc is almost surely scum.

[mcmcsalot]

I shot teamlyle because Calamitas's analysis made sense if we didn't have to actually waste a lynch to do it.

Two nights ago I shot at Eevee, to save time since I thought we would lynch him anyway and that would clear things up ahead of time. That failed.

Last night I shot at mcmc, which also failed.

Yep you also mentioned the vig should shoot teamlyle way early on. I knew you would claim this, I was hoping someone else would claim it first because then I would be confident you were fake claiming. Now I'm not, much earlier in the game when I didn't think you were scum I was pretty sure you were the vig, I reread your day one and you were playing like a power role.

[mcmcsalot]

Then McMc is almost surely scum.

Why?

[mcmcsalot]

So space anemone picked up on robz vig soft claim thing early on as well I believe. They mentioned they thought robz was town because of one post and wouldn't say what post.

[Witherweaver]

Then McMc is almost surely scum.

Why?

You know Eevee slip was real, you're going to vote him.  Wagon was me, you, Robz, LaLight.  Lalight flipped town, Robz claiming Vig.    Unless he gets counterclaimed.

Also if it wasn't you it would be Space and Calamitas..  Space has seemed pretty townie.

[Robz888]

I shot teamlyle because Calamitas's analysis made sense if we didn't have to actually waste a lynch to do it.

Two nights ago I shot at Eevee, to save time since I thought we would lynch him anyway and that would clear things up ahead of time. That failed.

Last night I shot at mcmc, which also failed.

Yep you also mentioned the vig should shoot teamlyle way early on. I knew you would claim this, I was hoping someone else would claim it first because then I would be confident you were fake claiming. Now I'm not, much earlier in the game when I didn't think you were scum I was pretty sure you were the vig, I reread your day one and you were playing like a power role.

Yeah, I was really mad at myself for being so obvious about it, I was the first person to bring up the Vig solution to Calamitas's theory, and then I was thinking why did I do that, I'm basically announced to scum that I was Vig. Lousy play from me, honestly. I'm pretty amazed they didn't start blocking me Night 1. I think after teamlyle turned up dead they went back to look at who was likely to be Vig, figured me out, and blocked me ever since.

[mcmcsalot]

Robz think about if I am town how I would react to you convincing me to lynch jreggie over eevee. If I was scum and I knew robz was the vig why would I go after you at all. Why would I push eevee alllll game when scum was doing really well after mislynch plus town getting viged at night. Why would I continue to push eevee after that and make the wagon on him get to a point where he had to fake claim and then lynch jreggie...why wouldn't I just have agreed to lynch jreggie and then not have eevee have to create fake night results!! This would be an awful scum game on my part

[Robz888]

Robz think about if I am town how I would react to you convincing me to lynch jreggie over eevee. If I was scum and I knew robz was the vig why would I go after you at all. Why would I push eevee alllll game when scum was doing really well after mislynch plus town getting viged at night. Why would I continue to push eevee after that and make the wagon on him get to a point where he had to fake claim and then lynch jreggie...why wouldn't I just have agreed to lynch jreggie and then not have eevee have to create fake night results!! This would be an awful scum game on my part

Well it's not an awful scum game, you are in good shape, even if you get lynched perhaps. It's not obvious to me who your third is.

I will say, though, your reaction my claim gives me pause.

[Robz888]

Then McMc is almost surely scum.

Why?

You know Eevee slip was real, you're going to vote him.  Wagon was me, you, Robz, LaLight.  Lalight flipped town, Robz claiming Vig.    Unless he gets counterclaimed.

Also if it wasn't you it would be Space and Calamitas..  Space has seemed pretty townie.

This post is raising some alarm bells for me, but I'm going to wait a little bit to say why.

[Robz888]

Alarm bells about WW, to be clear.

[Witherweaver]

I think it's really unlikely that there aren't partners on the Eevee wagon.

[Robz888]

I think it's really unlikely that there aren't partners on the Eevee wagon.

Eevee was going down yesterday no matter what. Doesn't matter if partners voted or not. 100% of the players were going to vote for Eevee.

But that's not even what I suspect about your post.