Okay, I'm back with a mammoth post that includes
strong accusations. First, Voltgloss asked for thoughts on Bozzball. I think that everybody, including people I no longer trust, did a good job of laying out why the mafia killed Bozzball. Here's my take, though I think it's similar to other people's:
Bozzball was assumed innocent, and the mafia don't want people like that hanging around. Also, in a weird sense, he presented a wildcard, because it was hard to tell which way he would eventually vote. And his vote would matter today, because there's 5 of us. So I can see the mafia deciding that they've done fine up until now convincing the vocal, core people to do the wrong thing--why take the chance of screwing that up by leaving in someone who is only casually connected to the game? What if he gets replaced by somebody else before the lynch deadline and this person really gets it--a fresh pair of eyes, or something--and the mafia go down? So, I think they decided just to keep rolling with the way things are going and prevent this uninvolved wildcard person from having any influence in this round of the game.
And now, more importantly, I am willing to venture a guess as to who the 2 mafia are.
I am the doctor. Galzria and Voltgloss seem to be leaning toward believing me. Jtheonah seems to be leaning toward thinking I'm mafia. Insomniac is convinced I'm mafia. I believe this clears things up, at least for me.
The mafia are Insomniac and Jtheonah.First of all, I do NOT say this with certainty. I say it with likelihood. In my mind, it is the most likely scenario. I've reached this conclusion by going back over Day 2 from the standpoint that they are mafia and seeing what statements corroborate this view.
J came out swinging against me early on Day 2. It wasn't super aggressive, but he definitely singled me out as the most suspicious, or at least slightly more suspicious than Volt. I took slight umbrage at that, because hey, plenty of other people voted Morgrim, including him, and he read like a hedger to me with his line about no longer thinking it was Morgrim but still doing that vote. But then, here's the thing: He backed off me. Later in the day (but still early on) we get this from him, where he startes moving away from suspecting me:
As for whether it's Robz or Volt, I was leaning toward Robz but the more I think about it the more I suspect Volt. I'll have to take a really close look to figure out which of them is mafia, but I'm so very sure one of them is.
[Remember that he will eventually go on to quarrel with Insomniac (which I believe was just for the sake of not appearing in tandem) and ultimately vote Kuildeous. And Insomniac considers ME to be the guy who throws too much suspicion around???]
At this point, by the way, J and Insomniac's suspicions line up perfectly. I can even independently verify that via third party:
These will attempt to be organized by level of suspicion (highest first):
Insomniac suspects: Voltgloss, Robz888
Jotheonah suspects: Voltgloss, Robz888
Then things change. Galzria begins to suspect Kuildeous. Voltgloss is also suspicious of Kuildeous. I can say that my thinking about K very much went 180 degrees, I admit that (I actually saved him in the night!). But I was persuaded that at least one of the mafia may have decided not to vote for Morgrim, because they didn't need to. And now J, despite being most suspicious of me and Volt, gets on the K bandwagon. but as J's public suspicions of me drop, and his suspicion of K goes up, Insomniac does the opposite. He very much adopts the mantle of anti-Robz player. Of course, J still leaves the possibility of me and Volt open with this post:
I still believe the most plausible thing at this point is that either Robz or Volt is one mafia and Kuildeaous is the other. Insomniac's last posts have been strange and not that helpful - vague, partly inaccurate, not definitive. But they don't necessarily read mafia to me.
Great! He can kill K this round, while setting himself up to rejoin his mafia partner Insomniac next round in the killing of me (or possibly Volt in case of some weird circumstances). Next, Galz casts the first vote for K. Thing are definitely moving against K. Meanwhile, Insomniac and me have this exchange:
An aside not related to tables it IS possible according to the setup that there may or may not be another town power role. This is an important fact that
nobody has claimed to be them.
Nobody has claimed it because there has been no reason to claim it, I assume. They should only claim it if they know something or if they are about to be accidentally lynched.
There was no reason for Insomniac to bring this up. One possible read of this to me now is him trying to provoke some discussion of who the other role is, because that's something the mafia want to know. My response was a polite reminder that we shouldn't talk about that, let our other role person do their thing in secret for now, obviously! But as the doctor, I didn't want Insomniac's comment to lead the rest of you into thinking there wasn't another role townie at all, so this is why I made this comment. (And come on, Insomniac's comment is just stupid. It is NOT an important fact that no one has claimed to be some special townie--it's just an obvious strategy on the part of that person. I don't believe anybody else would have said something like that. Insomniac said it because he is using mafia thinking.) And on we go...
Okay, Insomnaic turns up the heat against me and actually casts a vote. J tests the waters about returning to suspecting me, starts to publicly walk back his K suspicion. As it becomes clear that me and Volt and Galz will all adamantly vote for K, he again goes back to voting K. Really, this makes good sense for the mafia. J and Insomniac go on to quarrel slightly, and J casts some healthy suspicion on his partner, and then they land on the opposite sides of the vote. But really, it's a trivial distinction to them. In fact, it's better that way. The townie K dies this round with J's vote. Next round, Insomniac gets to sound like Mr. Correct as he goes directly after me. Meanwhile, J can slowly pretend to be swayed by Insomniac's analysis (even though he has had it out for me since the start of Day 2), and hope that this spectacle ropes in Volt, or more likely, Galz. I believe this is the mafia win scenario by the way: Insomniac and J convince Galz to vote for me. Of course it's easier with Bozzball gone, because who knows what he would do.
What does all this mean?
I think we see a clear strategy on the part of the mafia: Accuse the same people when it matters, but vote on opposite sides because the voting doesn't matter when there aren't any mafia up for lynching and it's better not to seem in tandem. There was no reason for them to do anything other than one for Morgrim, one not voting in the first round. That was enough to have Morgrim killed, and then no matter which group of voters came under suspicion in Day 2, they were split up so as not to appear suspicious. They picked me and Volt to go after (easy targets because of the Morgrim vote) but when the town moved against another innocent, K, they reverted to the plan: have one person vote for the kill and have the other refrain. In this round, the round that matters, J is trying to nuance the fact that he is on Insomniac's side. I believe that this is why: He is always been on Insomniac's side. They are the mafia.
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Okay. I obviously thought about this a lot. I began with the belief that Insomniac had to be mafia and went from there. J is his most likely associate, and I think the history backs this up. Am I positive? No. But does it seem most likely to me? Yes.
(This is of course only in addition to the volume of evidence that already incriminates Insomniac individually: namely the fact that he says misleading things all the time. He is the only player who does that.)
I will give them both a chance to respond, and then I will drop a vote on Insomniac. I expect Insomniac and J to cast their votes for me soon. But it all comes down to Volt and Galz, whom I hope and expect to agree with me: that Insomniac is the most likely person to be mafia, based on his misleading statements, his rejection of my roleclaim, and his voting and accusal pattern. And that J is by far his likely mafia partner, backed up by the evidence of how their strategies have played off each other on previous days.
And that's my say.
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Topic: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters GAME OVER Mafia Wins! (Read 97036 times)