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[Kuildeous]

You're urging us to vote for insomniac ... but not doing so yourself?

No, I'm not urging you to vote for Insomniac. I found his unvote to be suspicious when I put a second vote on Robz. I wasn't quite buying his claim that he just didn't want to be asleep when the votes were finalized. I wrote up the strikethrough portion with the assumption that Insomniac would come back with a reason why he wouldn't be voting for Robz. He nullified that by reinstating the vote.

Though, if he keeps his vote active on Robz only while he's awake, then that gives him control over when he can retract his vote. I'm not quite ready to treat Insomniac as a townie. I almost was, but this recent unvote and revote have concerned me.

[Galzria]

Interesting. Very very interesting.

I've been watching very carefully who has joined onto my theories against K and when. Oddly, I actually agree with much of K's analysis above. Jotheonah backed me to quickly for him to be Mafia. I threw together a post with the theory that he was, but really, it seems highly unlikely. That leaves Robz, Volt, and Insomniac (again, for better or worse right now I have to ignore Bozzball add there's nothing to base a case on).

Let me posit some theories:

IF Kuildeous comes back Mafia:

Robz is likely innocent. With mounting pressure on Kuildeous, he would be much more likely to cast his vote somewhere his partner could help redirect.

Voltgloss could be town or Mafia. Kuildeous has been going after him for awhile, and did cast a vote, which makes Volt seem more town-like. Still, wouldn't write him off, since Kuuldeous has bounced around so much.

Insomniac is likely Mafia. He set Robz up to fall, and Robz has been the easiest go-to target since the start of day 2. It was easy to make a case, and allowed them to work together to pull votes off Kuildeous.

IF Kuildeous is turned up townie:

We loose. Well, if I get killed because of this result. That said, I have to consider:

Jotheonah could be Mafia. He could've been first out of the gate to support me to win over my friendship, something he has seemed to be trying to gain since early day one. This would offer him a layer of protection. Me. A great place for a Mafia to stand in day 3.

Robz could be Mafia. His timing is suspect in this case. It should be noted that he did come out in defense of K early day 2, so his initial instinct would've been right. Maybe that's a slightly more town tell.

Voltgloss could be Mafia. His timing is also suspect. His conviction and quick* vote cast would make me believe Mafia trying to push a growing movement.

Insomniac is likely town. Although he could be a Mafia trying to stay away from Kuildeous for just this scenario. I wouldn't be convinced of innocence.

Just thoughts to chew over. Opinions?

[Axxle]

Vote Count 2-4

Kuildeous (2) - Voltgloss, Galzria
Robz888 (2) - Kuildeous, Insomniac
bozzball (1) - jotheonah
Not Voting (2) - Robz888, bozzball

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Deadline: Friday, June 1, 2012 6pm PDT

[jotheonah]

Aaand Insomniac reacts to my assertion that the mafia should be panicking right now by pointedly not panicking ("I don't care if I live or die, but...") Does anyone else think Insomniac is looking worse and worse?

And the two people he HASN'T targeted (lately) are myself and Voltgloss. Well, and Galzria, but that makes sense. Not a lot to be gained by that at this point.

Please, Somebody give me a really good reason not to believe in Voltgloss - Insomniac. I'm going to start going through the backlog to take a look at this pairing.

Re: Kuildeous: Once again I want to stress that as bad as this looks, I'm just trying to make sure we don't repeat Day 1's mistakes. We absolutely CAN'T afford to lynch town today and the inkling of a town read I get off K is enough to stay my hand.

Consider that if I were mafia, I would be doing myself NO favors with this hedge, since if K turns up mafia I'll look like I was helping him and if he turns up town I'll look like a Mafia hedging away from an innocent kill I helped egg on. So please believe my motives are pure here, and help me to be as sure about this execution as you all appear to be.

[Kuildeous]

Kuildeous: What the hell? I give the SAME analysis as you and retract my vote temporarily, then you post the SAME analysis I do (although scratched out) As a reason to vote for me. If your going to cite my analysis as a reason to vote for me, don't give the same analysis.

True. I had forgotten about that analysis. It's really the same situation for many of the votes. Looks like you and I are in the same boat.

My analysis is moot anyway. It was to urge people to vote for you since you pulled the vote away. I have abandoned that train of thought for the time being.

If you are willing to keep your vote on Robz the next time you sleep, then I'll be more likely to ditch the idea that you and Robz are fellow Mafia conspirators.

[Voltgloss]

Insomniac-Voltgloss is the possibility that's still keeping me from voting K. Volt, you want to weigh in on Insomniac's recent performance and whether or not it's as scummy as Robz thinks it is?

Sure.  I need some time to go through in depth, particularly the recent back-and-forth, but I'll definitely do so.  May not be until the early evening though (EDT).  Work is pretty busy today.

There is one point that jumps out at me from your most recent post.

Consider that if I were mafia, I would be doing myself NO favors with this hedge, since if K turns up mafia I'll look like I was helping him and if he turns up town I'll look like a Mafia hedging away from an innocent kill I helped egg on. So please believe my motives are pure here, and help me to be as sure about this execution as you all appear to be.

If you are mafia, and if Kuildeous is mafia, then your hedge would do you a tremendous favor if it redirects the lynch to someone other than Kuildeous.  Like me or Insomniac (who, if this scenario is the correct one, would also be town).

[jotheonah]

On another note, Kuildeous and bozzball, who are your ssuspects.

The rub is that I don't currently have suspicions. Something I've noticed in play-by-forum is that there is no body language to read. Also, people have more time to come up with rebuttals, examining what they have written with plenty of time to come up with wording that acquits themselves and possibly puts blame on others. From reading the past few pages, I do not have a rock-steady suspicion.

That being said, I am going to vote Insomniac. It's not because I am actively accusing Insomniac of being Mafia, but I'm adopting the "better safe than sorry" approach of lynching. I only hope that my random dart hits the bull's-eye.

Does everyebody else remember this? K cast his first-ever Day 1 vote for Insomniac.


Re: Volts - Even then, no it wouldn't. It would make the two of us look really really bad tomorrow.

[jotheonah]

While I haven't finished my analysis/note taking yet (only done pages 2-4 so far, and it's taken this long!), I have to say that Voltgloss is looking the most town player: I have repeated notes on how he's made good useful points to the town. Helpful to the town, or good mafia play? Hard to say, but I'm leaning towards town (of course, rereading pages 5-7 could change that). Players I don't have any notes on (i.e. nothing noteworthy to report) for those 3 pages are Kuleidos and Imsomniac. I'll be keeping an eye out for them on the later pages.

The reason I'm saying this now, is because I ended up not finishing by a long shot before I have to go. Since I'm going to be board gaming all afternoon, I might not be back for more play until late this evening (10-11 hours time). Which means even MORE things to read and post about. Yay! (I might leave early, depending on stuff)

Something else I'd forgotten: The one thing we KNEW about Tables' lost analysis was that it was pro-Volt. So that makes it less likely for Volt to target Tables as his night 1 kill.

[Insomniac]

Heres the reason Kuildeous is innocent. He voted for Robz.

No really lets think about this

I will not move my vote from Robz today. Period
Kuildeous has voted for Robz. Thats 2

Galzria has voted for Kuildeous probably won't move vote
Voltgloss has voted for Kuildeous. Won't move vote without substantial reason

Not Voting: Robz, Bozzball, Jotheonah

Now we can assume Robz wont vote for Robz so he'll jump on Kuildeous when he feels it wont make him look guilty

Now
Robz-2
Kuildeous-3

Bozzball will not vote.
Jotheonah therefore is the deciding vote. But he CAN'T decide to lynch Robz and therefore can ONLY decide to lynch Kuildeous. Lack of a decision will lead to a Kuildeous lynch as a majority vote at the deadline.

SO when one of the undecided votes is Robz, it's not smart to jump on the Robz bandwagon. IF he was trying to stay alive he would start another bandwagon. (Perhaps the Insomniac bandwagon but that wouldn't be started by him and is gaining steam so I suspect he might move his vote to me later once i have votes if he is truly mafia)

[Voltgloss]

Does everyebody else remember this? K cast his first-ever Day 1 vote for Insomniac.

I remember, but I don't find it probative either way.  K expressly said his vote was 100% random.  I don't recall there being any voiced suspicion of Insomniac at the time by others, so very little risk of K's vote snowballing.  Besides, anyone who bandwagoned on something that was expressly random would invite GREAT suspicion and become a likely target for a Day 1 lynch. 

If they're both Mafia, it's about the safest way K could create the illusion of distancing himself from I.  If they're not, then K's vote really was random (whether K is Mafia or not) and doesn't provide anything useful for analysis.  I just don't see this as a helpful data point.

Re: Volts - Even then, no it wouldn't. It would make the two of us look really really bad tomorrow.

No matter how suspicious the two Mafiosi may look (whoever they are), a 3-2 Town-Mafia split on Day 3 is a better result for them than a 4-1 Town-Mafia split on Day 3.  Remember that two Townies would have had to agree with the Mafia's votes and so would look plenty suspicious as well.  And the Mafia can muddle the issue by pointing the finger at each other on Day 3 - even going so far as voting for each other - secure in the knowledge that a lynched Mafioso on Day 3 would make the remaining Mafioso significantly less suspicious on Day 4. 

[jotheonah]

So losing the cop sucks but here is my reply (sorry for the delay in getting back to everyone) This is where I stand, Tables getting killed doesn't change anything for me

Voltgloss  - Stats on no lynch first left out jailkeeper/doctor/cop involvement. Claimed he would unvote if someone else voted for
   Morgrim, gave Robz888 permission to do so, did not unvote. Retracted the "unhammer" almost immediatly after offering it.
   The offering makes him seem non mafia if you ignore the unhammer

Robz888 - For being the last one other than Morgrim to vote for Morgrim, he is the catalyst that pushed Morgrims lynch to the top,
   Additionally for someone who always comes out guns blazing he really didnt, I dont think he's trying a new tactic either but
   Im not sure hes as much a threat as Voltgloss.


Now I know the accusations are gonna come my way as well for not voting but I would like to preemptively say isn't it a benefit as mafia to vote
early against someone who you know isn't mafia. If I was Mafia I would have known that Morgrim was not and thus jumped on that bandwagon sooner

Vote: Voltgloss

Here's the evidence I was looking for against the I-V pair. Very odd play for Insomniac if they're both mafia. Sigh.

[Voltgloss]

Heres the reason Kuildeous is innocent. He voted for Robz.

No really lets think about this

I will not move my vote from Robz today. Period
Kuildeous has voted for Robz. Thats 2

Galzria has voted for Kuildeous probably won't move vote
Voltgloss has voted for Kuildeous. Won't move vote without substantial reason

Not Voting: Robz, Bozzball, Jotheonah

Now we can assume Robz wont vote for Robz so he'll jump on Kuildeous when he feels it wont make him look guilty

Now
Robz-2
Kuildeous-3

Bozzball will not vote.
Jotheonah therefore is the deciding vote. But he CAN'T decide to lynch Robz and therefore can ONLY decide to lynch Kuildeous. Lack of a decision will lead to a Kuildeous lynch as a majority vote at the deadline.

SO when one of the undecided votes is Robz, it's not smart to jump on the Robz bandwagon. IF he was trying to stay alive he would start another bandwagon. (Perhaps the Insomniac bandwagon but that wouldn't be started by him and is gaining steam so I suspect he might move his vote to me later once i have votes if he is truly mafia)

Insomniac, I don't think the bolded sentence is correct.  Looking at the rules:

Voting, Deadlines, and Player Death:
1. A simple majority (rounded up) of all living members must agree on one person for a lynch to occur prior to deadline.
2. Once you have reached a simple majority no further unvoting will change someone’s fate. Further votes will also be ignored.
3. Once a player is lynched the game enters twilight until I post a death scene; all players including the one who was lynched may continue to post during twilight.
4. Please submit votes as: Vote: PlayerName. Votes will NOT be counted if they are not bold! Obvious abbreviations or nicknames will be counted so long as they are unambiguous.
5. Please submit vote revocations as either Unvote: PlayerName or Unvote. Unvotes are not necessary before changing votes.
6. You may Vote: No Lynch - a simple majority of these vote types are required to send the game to Night phase without a lynch.
7. This game will have 2 week deadlines. If a player or No Lynch does not have a simple majority at deadline, no lynch will occur, and the game will go into night.
8. Once you are killed (either via lynch or night kill) you may no longer post. This means that you do not even get a “Bah” post. The dead in this game are silent.
9. Do not edit or delete posts. We don't want some players having more information than others.  If you want to clarify posts, feel free to double post.

The way I read Rules 1 and 7, if no one has 4 votes by the deadline, no one gets lynched.  Rule 7 isn't talking about a simple majority of all VOTING members.  It's talking about a simple majority of all LIVING members.  That means 4 votes.

Axxle, could you let us know which construction of the rules is correct?  Thanks.

[Insomniac]

Heres the reason Kuildeous is innocent. He voted for Robz.

No really lets think about this

I will not move my vote from Robz today. Period
Kuildeous has voted for Robz. Thats 2

Galzria has voted for Kuildeous probably won't move vote
Voltgloss has voted for Kuildeous. Won't move vote without substantial reason

Not Voting: Robz, Bozzball, Jotheonah

Now we can assume Robz wont vote for Robz so he'll jump on Kuildeous when he feels it wont make him look guilty

Now
Robz-2
Kuildeous-3

Bozzball will not vote.
Jotheonah therefore is the deciding vote. But he CAN'T decide to lynch Robz and therefore can ONLY decide to lynch Kuildeous. Lack of a decision will lead to a Kuildeous lynch as a majority vote at the deadline.

SO when one of the undecided votes is Robz, it's not smart to jump on the Robz bandwagon. IF he was trying to stay alive he would start another bandwagon. (Perhaps the Insomniac bandwagon but that wouldn't be started by him and is gaining steam so I suspect he might move his vote to me later once i have votes if he is truly mafia)

Insomniac, I don't think the bolded sentence is correct.  Looking at the rules:

Voting, Deadlines, and Player Death:
1. A simple majority (rounded up) of all living members must agree on one person for a lynch to occur prior to deadline.
2. Once you have reached a simple majority no further unvoting will change someone’s fate. Further votes will also be ignored.
3. Once a player is lynched the game enters twilight until I post a death scene; all players including the one who was lynched may continue to post during twilight.
4. Please submit votes as: Vote: PlayerName. Votes will NOT be counted if they are not bold! Obvious abbreviations or nicknames will be counted so long as they are unambiguous.
5. Please submit vote revocations as either Unvote: PlayerName or Unvote. Unvotes are not necessary before changing votes.
6. You may Vote: No Lynch - a simple majority of these vote types are required to send the game to Night phase without a lynch.
7. This game will have 2 week deadlines. If a player or No Lynch does not have a simple majority at deadline, no lynch will occur, and the game will go into night.
8. Once you are killed (either via lynch or night kill) you may no longer post. This means that you do not even get a “Bah” post. The dead in this game are silent.
9. Do not edit or delete posts. We don't want some players having more information than others.  If you want to clarify posts, feel free to double post.

The way I read Rules 1 and 7, if no one has 4 votes by the deadline, no one gets lynched.  Rule 7 isn't talking about a simple majority of all VOTING members.  It's talking about a simple majority of all LIVING members.  That means 4 votes.

Axxle, could you let us know which construction of the rules is correct?  Thanks.

That could also be true, I am a new player and could have misunderstood rule 7. I stand by my analysis aside from that point though. Its looking really hard for the town to agree right now, harder still without Bozz

[Axxle]

If a player does not have 4 votes by the deadline there will be no lynch.

[jotheonah]

If you were starting to unsuspect Morgrim, then please take back your vote!!!

Robz already made this point later in his post, but I wanted to reiterate that it only takes 4 votes to lynch someone now. Since both Mafia members are still alive, they only need to wait for 2 votes and pile on to ensure the death of another victim. Now, that alone is suspicious, but if they do it and then assassinate someone in the night, then they'll have 40% of the votes in day 3. All it takes in day 3 is for a townie to slip up and cast the wrong vote.

So we need to make sure that no one has 2 votes unless we are absolutely certain that is the direction we want to take.

More points for discussion. As a Mafia, what did Kildeous have to gain by being the one to bring this up on Day 2? If that thought had so far slipped everyone's minds, wouldn't the mafia WANT to let that go on?

Again, I'm not in the K is innocent camp by a longshot. I'm asking all of you who are more sure than I am to convince me of his guilt.

[Galzria]

 Jotheonah, I think you're looking to hard for Mafia to be acting Mafia'ish. I've laid out my case as well as I think I can, and if your looking for day 2 actions, just consider how his vote has (or heavy suspicions of who is #1 anyway) have been ALMOST everywhere. And pretty much multiple times. He's been trying to find something that will stick SOMEWHERE. He has been the ultimate in scattered play, something Insomniac is trying to accuse Robz of (and Kuildeous has gone along with).

Also now who the one person Kuildeous has NOT gone after... Is Insomniac. Outside of that very early day 1 attempt at a vote (which by admits never took anyway). Volt has debunked why that is rather irrelevant.

[Insomniac]

Galz he accused me on page 19. In the strikeout, which granted probably doesn't mean much. And I dont think hes looking to hard for something to stick, ROBZ is Robz just hasn't laid a vote on it yet because it would look suspicious

[jotheonah]

Galz, is Volt totally in the clear in your book at this point? Because he isn't in mine. Not only did he drop our exchange, fade into the background for a bit, and then pop back up to join the Kuildeaus bandwagon once everyone had stopped talking about him, but since I accused him of that he's ignored my accusation. I think he's terrified that if we start taking a close look at him again it will blow his cover. He's hoping we kill K before we get to that.

[Kuildeous]

If they're both Mafia, it's about the safest way K could create the illusion of distancing himself from I.  If they're not, then K's vote really was random (whether K is Mafia or not) and doesn't provide anything useful for analysis.  I just don't see this as a helpful data point.

Volt's right. Mine wasn't even the very first vote, so it's not like a bandwagon could have formed against Insomniac.

I appreciate the attention spent on that action, but it makes no case for exoneration.

[Galzria]

Galz he accused me on page 19. In the strikeout, which granted probably doesn't mean much. And I dont think hes looking to hard for something to stick, ROBZ is Robz just hasn't laid a vote on it yet because it would look suspicious

And how can I take his accusation of you seriously when he STRUCK IT ALL OUT, and said nevermind this is irrelevant? All in the same post? There was no accusation there buddy, sorry.

[Insomniac]

I agreed it probably wasn't relevant but he left it there in case it was or became relevant, and Jotheonah took it to mean he was urging people to vote for me. So even if its struck out it had an impact.

I did say that it probably doesn't bear much weight though and I stand by this so yes he hasn't gone after me and I haven't gone after him. Hes not that suspicious to me. I'm more suspicious of the people that have pushed him hard and the people I assume will jump on the bandwagon. And I've given my reasons why Robz is my prime suspect most of which is analysis that you werent interested in. You were only interested in what he said not how I interpreted his actions

[Insomniac]

Also Robz what happened to your pairing cross-referencing analysis?

[Galzria]

Galz, is Volt totally in the clear in your book at this point? Because he isn't in mine. Not only did he drop our exchange, fade into the background for a bit, and then pop back up to join the Kuildeaus bandwagon once everyone had stopped talking about him, but since I accused him of that he's ignored my accusation. I think he's terrified that if we start taking a close look at him again it will blow his cover. He's hoping we kill K before we get to that.

If you refer to post #476, you'll note he's the only person I really think could be Mafia either way. So no, not at all fully in the clear.

[Galzria]

Insomniac, I don't entirely disagree with your analysis. It isn't irrelevant to me. I just think it's entirely unfair, as what you've been accusing him of has been done by almost everybody, and by some people much more egregiously. So your going after Robz seems very fake and unnatural.

[Kuildeous]

So what happens if we fail to lynch?

If we lynch:
Day 2
5 Town 2 Mafia
Need 4 to lynch
Day 3:
3 Town 2 Mafia (a) OR
4 Town 1 Mafia (b)
Need 3 to lynch

If we don't lynch:
Day 2
5 Town 2 Mafia
Need 4 to lynch
Day 3
4 Town 2 Mafia (c)
Need 4 to lynch

Which Day 3 scenario is better? Sure, we have more townies in Day 3 than if we lynch incorrectly, but we'll also be down a townie. I'm ruling out Doctor and Jailer at this point. Maybe we have one, which will totally skew the numbers. It's still possible; nobody has accumulated enough votes to claim a role.

So, what is the worst that can happen if we don't lynch? We're going to be down at least one person anyway. One problem I see is that the Mafia gains a vote advantage. 

In the case of (a), the town is still in the running only if all three of their numbers (or not, if the Mafia choose to sacrifice) need to agree to lynch someone who is Mafia. This is pretty bad. Any townie who votes for another townie has just lost the game, as the two Mafia members gang up on him. Obviously, we want to avoid (a)
In the case of (b), only three of the four survivors need to correctly lynch the right person. Even if they are wrong, there is a Day 4 to make up for it. Clearly, we want (b).

What about (c)? That scenario pretty much brings us back to Day 2. Everything is still the same except that one townie is dead. While the assassination of a townie can tell tales, I don't know that it'll be that telling. The Mafia can choose to assassinate the person hottest on their trail or the person who is coldest. We'll overanalyze and possibly get things wrong. It'll still be the same as Day 2 in that it takes 4 people to lynch someone. What's different is that there is one less townie to direct the vote. The Mafia shoot from 29% voting power to 33%.

More importantly, what makes (c) worse than (a) is that at least in (a), you have the benefit of reading people's votes in relation to the dead innocent person. We won't have that in (c). It's a continuation of Day 2 without extra information.

So, I view this as an affirmation of what was discussed in Day 1: Not lynching is worse. We have until June 1 to place our four fateful votes. I'll be busy most of next week and won't be able to post much (though I should be able to read). If I do post, it'll likely only to change a vote.

Does that sound right to everyone? I've never played, so I'm only going off of what I feel. If someone has a contradiction to what I posted, I'd like to hear it.