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Author Topic: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters GAME OVER Mafia Wins!  (Read 96524 times)

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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 2)
« Reply #375 on: May 22, 2012, 07:40:06 am »

Okay, here's what's confusing me with the Kuildeous situation.

As I understand it, Galzria's suspicions of Kuildeous were first based on Kuildeous's voting for Bozzball on Day 1, pushing the vote on Bozzball to 3.  Kuildeous has defended by saying he felt Day 1's vote was essentially going to be random, and to prevent a deadlock tie resulting in "no lynch," he therefore voted on someone others were voting for.  I also recall Galzria mentioning Kuildeous saying he wanted to push the vote to 3 to see if the mafia would jump on to push the vote to 5.  (I can't find Kuildeous's post on this - just haven't had time to search for it.)

The thing is, at the time Kuildeous voted for Bozzball, there were 2 votes on Bozzball and 2 votes on Morgrim.  My question then, for Kuildeous, is:  when you voted Bozzball, why him and not Morgrim?  Your stated reason seems to apply equally to either.  Why one and not the other?

I also have a question for Robz.  Robz has weighed in a couple times recently on Kuildeous, noting that - based on Kuildeous's Day 2 activities - he may have been hasty in dropping K from the suspects list.  But I don't think Robz has said anything about K's Day 1 vote for Bozzball.  Robz, do you find that suspicious like Galzria does?  If not, what about Galzria's analysis do you disagree with?

Galzria, whatever responses Kuildeous and Robz give, I would also like the benefit of your reply.

I realize I haven't weighed in on my thoughts on Kuildeous yet.  That's because I still have these questions (see above) and would like to see the answers before making up my mind.
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Kuildeous

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 2)
« Reply #376 on: May 22, 2012, 09:42:24 am »

The thing is, at the time Kuildeous voted for Bozzball, there were 2 votes on Bozzball and 2 votes on Morgrim.  My question then, for Kuildeous, is:  when you voted Bozzball, why him and not Morgrim?  Your stated reason seems to apply equally to either.  Why one and not the other?

Actually, Bozzball had the most votes.

I cast the vote on Bozzball in message 165. At the time, Bozzball had two votes (Galzria in 138 and Morgrim in 143) while Morgrim only had one vote (Voltgloss in 114). Morgrim didn't get two votes until jotheonah confirmed his vote in 167 (it looks like he meant to vote for Morgrim in 149, but it didn't take until he clarified it in 167).

Once Bozzball got into the danger zone, Galzria backed off of Bozzball and switched to Morgrim in 170. Then Robz voted for Morgrim in 217, and you know the rest. 

I'll put the above paragraphs in chronological order:
114: V votes for M
138: G votes for B
143: M votes for B
149: J tries to vote for M?
165: K votes for B
167: J votes for M
170: G unvotes for B
170: G votes for M
217: R votes for M

Despite my misgivings about J, I feel that his voting mistake is legitimate. I made a similar mistake in my voting, after all. But, when I placed the vote on Bozzball, Morgrim only had one vote on him. Would I have chosen differently if 149 was written differently? Maybe. I can only speak in hindsight; but it probably would have come down to a coin toss. 
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 2)
« Reply #377 on: May 22, 2012, 11:12:50 am »


Note to everyone: While my conviction will stand strong here, I'm unlikely to make the vote until late into day 2. Having one Mafia picked out, I don't want to give his partner a chance at a desperate ploy (ie voting Kuildeous to clear his name). So I plan on shifting my focus right now to finding Mafiosi #2. I would rather ferret him out today and have a town win tomorrow, then quickly hit a Mafia now and be unsure tomorrow. I will 100% vote Kuildeous when the time comes. Just not yet.


Is this wise? Say, just for the sake of argument, that Kuildeous is mafia. We decide, based on our conversation, to lynch Mr. X today instead and lynch K tomorrow. But we're wrong about Mr. X, he's innocent. The mafia kill another innocent in the night.

Galz, now, assuming you're still alive, you're in a group that's 2/5 mafia. You're convinced that K is mafia, but two other people in the group (the mafia) absolutely won't vote for him. So our win chances are based on you being absolutely sure that everyone else is absolutely sure K is mafia.

Say you do lynch K on Day 3. In the night, the mafia kill an innocent, and we get a Day 4 with three people, two town and a mafia, where there's no certainty which of the three is mafia.

Whereas, if we kill K today and leve unsure person for tomorrow, and K is mafia, we start the day with 1/5 mafia, a much worse situation for the mob. Even if we get it wrong, we get one more day to try to catch the same person we've been gunning for.

Bottom line, if you're sure someone's mafia, kill them today. Don't wait.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 2)
« Reply #378 on: May 22, 2012, 11:26:17 am »


Note to everyone: While my conviction will stand strong here, I'm unlikely to make the vote until late into day 2. Having one Mafia picked out, I don't want to give his partner a chance at a desperate ploy (ie voting Kuildeous to clear his name). So I plan on shifting my focus right now to finding Mafiosi #2. I would rather ferret him out today and have a town win tomorrow, then quickly hit a Mafia now and be unsure tomorrow. I will 100% vote Kuildeous when the time comes. Just not yet.


Is this wise? Say, just for the sake of argument, that Kuildeous is mafia. We decide, based on our conversation, to lynch Mr. X today instead and lynch K tomorrow. But we're wrong about Mr. X, he's innocent. The mafia kill another innocent in the night.

Galz, now, assuming you're still alive, you're in a group that's 2/5 mafia. You're convinced that K is mafia, but two other people in the group (the mafia) absolutely won't vote for him. So our win chances are based on you being absolutely sure that everyone else is absolutely sure K is mafia.

Say you do lynch K on Day 3. In the night, the mafia kill an innocent, and we get a Day 4 with three people, two town and a mafia, where there's no certainty which of the three is mafia.

Whereas, if we kill K today and leve unsure person for tomorrow, and K is mafia, we start the day with 1/5 mafia, a much worse situation for the mob. Even if we get it wrong, we get one more day to try to catch the same person we've been gunning for.

Bottom line, if you're sure someone's mafia, kill them today. Don't wait.

I'm not necessarily saying we wait to kill K until tomorrow, I'm saying we take every opportunity to find out who his partner is today. I would not be 100% OPPOSED to lynching somebody else if I was sure it was down to player X or player Y as Mafia #2, because that would give a clear path on who the 2 Mafia ARE: However, I would only want to go that path if I felt the entire rest of the town agreed with that outlook. Otherwise my vote will go to K today.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 2)
« Reply #379 on: May 22, 2012, 11:40:54 am »

Thanks for the clarification. A "X is mafia, but lets not kill them until tomorrow" suggestion sounds an awful lot like a partner save, though that doesn't gel at all with you and K's relationship up until now.
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Kuildeous

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 2)
« Reply #380 on: May 22, 2012, 11:46:29 am »

Just out of curiosity, how certain is each person of my guilt? Please include a percentage from 1% to 100%. Feel free to include the same score for everyone else if you'd like, but I'm curious as to what people are thinking of me.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 2)
« Reply #381 on: May 22, 2012, 11:48:44 am »

Just out of curiosity, how certain is each person of my guilt? Please include a percentage from 1% to 100%. Feel free to include the same score for everyone else if you'd like, but I'm curious as to what people are thinking of me.

A fair question, but I don't feel comfortable answering until after Robz (and then Galzria) have responded to my most recent request for information.  I saw your response Kuildeous and appreciate it. 
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 2)
« Reply #382 on: May 22, 2012, 11:50:13 am »

The thing is, at the time Kuildeous voted for Bozzball, there were 2 votes on Bozzball and 2 votes on Morgrim.  My question then, for Kuildeous, is:  when you voted Bozzball, why him and not Morgrim?  Your stated reason seems to apply equally to either.  Why one and not the other?

Actually, Bozzball had the most votes.

I cast the vote on Bozzball in message 165. At the time, Bozzball had two votes (Galzria in 138 and Morgrim in 143) while Morgrim only had one vote (Voltgloss in 114). Morgrim didn't get two votes until jotheonah confirmed his vote in 167 (it looks like he meant to vote for Morgrim in 149, but it didn't take until he clarified it in 167).

Once Bozzball got into the danger zone, Galzria backed off of Bozzball and switched to Morgrim in 170. Then Robz voted for Morgrim in 217, and you know the rest. 

I'll put the above paragraphs in chronological order:
114: V votes for M
138: G votes for B
143: M votes for B
149: J tries to vote for M?
165: K votes for B
167: J votes for M
170: G unvotes for B
170: G votes for M
217: R votes for M

Despite my misgivings about J, I feel that his voting mistake is legitimate. I made a similar mistake in my voting, after all. But, when I placed the vote on Bozzball, Morgrim only had one vote on him. Would I have chosen differently if 149 was written differently? Maybe. I can only speak in hindsight; but it probably would have come down to a coin toss.

For Voltgloss:

I take no issue with this timeline. K is 100% correct in how that played out. For the record though, here is Jotheonah's post #149 (the mis-vote):

Back a little later than I'd planned. You can thank Amtrak for that.

So I've been turning everything over in my head, and the only one who stands out to me as more than just suspicious is Morgrim. He seems TOO concerned about being lynched, frantic to defend himself. And he's said some things that don't make a lot of sense.

Also, I hate to say this, but if Morgrim is mafia #1 than Galzria emerges as a strong suspect for Mafia #2 - given that he originated the "wait til day 2" plan, which would be a good way to save your partner for a day while appearing to be joining in his condemnation. 

Reread the whole thread (or skim it) with a Morgrim-Galzria mafia pair in mind and it's ... not impossible.

Tables, Kuildeous, I still have my eye on y'all, but I'm ready to put a vote on Morgrim

OT: Robz, I'm sure our being journalists can only help us. Asking leading questions, getting people to reveal too much information, stocks of the trade, amIright? I've been copy editing lately but I'm about to start an internship at a major magazine, trying to get back into the reporting game.

Between that time and his official vote in #167, there was NO official vote count, and during the time Jotheonah was awake and online (up until post #159) nobody pointed out the possible syntax error, so he could not have known his vote did not stand. Between posts #160 and #166 (mainly your post, Volt, #166) importance of syntax was explained, and in Jotheonah's VERY NEXT POST (#167) he corrected his mistake.

To argue that Morgrim was only at 1 vote is technically true when Kuildeous voted for Bozzball in post #163. Let me link it here:

I did actually vote for Insomniac, but it didn't take. I suspect because I omitted the colon, and I’m sure the moderator is searching for that (we do provide a lot of text to sift through).

My vote was pretty much random, but I then reread the rules and saw that a tie means that there is no lynch. So, if a no-lynch vote is bad for the town, then it would reason that a tie is just as harmful. So, I'm avoiding the random vote and jumping on the bandwagon. I will vote: bozzball and may the gods have mercy on us if we are wrong.


I would like to ask for a clarification. I know the Doctor and Jailkeeper can prevent a death. Does that include death from lynching?

I would also like to point out that Kuildeous says himself that he cast an earlier vote for Insomniac, but that it didn't take. In Jotheonah's case, his vote in #149 may or may not have been counted, but there is no doubt that the INTENT to cast was there.

-----

All that said, I will argue that it's just a matter of semantics, and really negligible to my case. My case focuses more on K's claim that his vote was "random". It was "random" and could have been a "coin-flip". But whatever his proclaimed methods, the facts remain as such:

I will vote: bozzball and may the gods have mercy on us if we are wrong.

My original plan for changing my vote to bozzball was to push the vote up to 3 to see if the Mafia players would jump on and push the vote to 5. Unfortunately, the vote is at 2, as Galzria changed his vote shortly after

it's quite possible that the Mafia players already suspected that delaying votes would be suspicious. They may even realize that concentrating their votes on one person would be suspicious also.

Although, another thought comes to mind. Since you can change your vote at any time, it's actually unlikely that the Mafia will wait to vote for someone. They can accomplish the same thing by changing their vote to tip someone over to majority vote.

Hell, in this post, I simultaneously condemned and exonerated Mogrim. Well, not really exonerate. I'll still vote for him if there's a compelling reason. People are eagerly awaiting Tables's analysis. I'll join in on that and see what he has to say.

Most of those came from post #200. He acknowledges that Mafia can change their vote at any time, says he'll sit and wait on Morgrim, but will cast his vote if needed, points out how Mafia putting all their eggs in one basket might be bad, and votes for Bozzball (away from general opinion at the time) because he WANTED to bandwagon up to 3. And that's IGNORING the fact that vote #2 on Bozzball was cast by none other than Morgrim, who was AT LEAST (and honestly MUCH MUCH more) suspicious and a likely Mafia AT THAT TIME.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 2)
« Reply #383 on: May 22, 2012, 12:54:04 pm »

Just out of curiosity, how certain is each person of my guilt? Please include a percentage from 1% to 100%. Feel free to include the same score for everyone else if you'd like, but I'm curious as to what people are thinking of me.

Personally? 100%, but I think you guessed at that. The only reason I'm taking a moment to bother with a reply, is that I want to say that I understand that others don't share this view quite yet. I believe you are a very strong player, and playing a very good game. I've got respect for that. So while I think you're guilty, and will try to convince others, I give you props and a +1 for good play.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Robz888

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 2)
« Reply #384 on: May 22, 2012, 01:48:23 pm »

I also have a question for Robz.  Robz has weighed in a couple times recently on Kuildeous, noting that - based on Kuildeous's Day 2 activities - he may have been hasty in dropping K from the suspects list.  But I don't think Robz has said anything about K's Day 1 vote for Bozzball.  Robz, do you find that suspicious like Galzria does?  If not, what about Galzria's analysis do you disagree with?

Galzria, whatever responses Kuildeous and Robz give, I would also like the benefit of your reply.

I realize I haven't weighed in on my thoughts on Kuildeous yet.  That's because I still have these questions (see above) and would like to see the answers before making up my mind.

I looked back again to find K's Bozzball vote. It is a difficult one to find! All lowercase letters and at the very righthand corner of the paragraph. But that's neither here nor there.

I do NOT find it suspicious that K voted for Bozzball rather than Morgrim, now that we know Morgrim was innocent. I can't really fault him for not getting on the wrong bandwagon. Bozzball was also a semi-suspicious character at the time (although now I see that as Bozz's unfamiliarity with the game, rather than mafia behavior), so I understand the vote in theory. I didn't say this, but I remember thinking at the time that with Morgrim and Bozz getting votes, we were doing a great job--the two most suspicious people had the most votes.

Anyway, if K was mafia, I would have expected him to vote for Morgrim, rather than Bozz. This is because the movement was clearly against Morgrim, and a mafia should be paying good enough attention to realize that. So I would have expected a mafia to get on the bandwagon that would eventually succeed.

That was my original analysis, but now I see the advantages for the mafia to purposefully NOT back the person who is most likely to be lynched. And K's Day 1 explanations of his votes are weirder than the votes themselves. He's always saying he doesn't know anything, doesn't have any idea, but then votes Insomniac randomly, Bozz mostly randomly, and does a TON of hedging on Morgrim (his Reply #200 is just doublespeak).

So, I'm not sure I find him suspicious for the same reasons Galzria does. And I don't want to bandwagon him. But my initial thoughts about him are wrong, his Day 2 behavior has drawn attention to some things about his Day 1 behavior that now stand out and... I'm trying to think about more complicated mafia strategies. And he would be one person in place to be orchestrating a much more complicated mafia strategy. Especially because now it seems to me like at least one of the mafia is probably a non-Morgrim voter. And, well, there's only two of those people left.

Does that help, Volt? His Bozz vote--the timing of it, at least--isn't suspicious to me. But these other things are.
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Kuildeous

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 2)
« Reply #385 on: May 22, 2012, 02:05:03 pm »

Especially because now it seems to me like at least one of the mafia is probably a non-Morgrim voter. And, well, there's only two of those people left.

Actually three: Insomniac, bozzball, and I are all surviving non-Morgrim voters. Not saying that fact clears me, but I've been losing focus on Insomniac and bozzball, and I don't want the others to do the same.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 2)
« Reply #386 on: May 22, 2012, 02:08:18 pm »

Especially because now it seems to me like at least one of the mafia is probably a non-Morgrim voter. And, well, there's only two of those people left.

Actually three: Insomniac, bozzball, and I are all surviving non-Morgrim voters. Not saying that fact clears me, but I've been losing focus on Insomniac and bozzball, and I don't want the others to do the same.

You are right. Sorry! I didn't count Bozzball there. I think the consensus is that he is not likely to be mafia.
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 2)
« Reply #387 on: May 22, 2012, 02:11:34 pm »

Agreed you shouldn't lose track of me but I am a townie.

Tonight I'm going to post an analysis based on why I think tables was lynched and what it could mean. I don't have time to do it right now. Work and all. But I think its an angle that we should look at and haven't explored enough, we've all thrown enough accusations around and defended ourselves but what about the mafia kill. Alot of people have written it off as unlucky. And well maybe it is, but what does the CHOICE of Tables say about the mafia.

Anyways thats what I'm going to get into later.

Also not sure what people think about Volts timeline but as I'm accused of lying should my rebuttal also be in the timeline?
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Kuildeous

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 2)
« Reply #388 on: May 22, 2012, 02:36:21 pm »

We've had quite a bit of a lively discussion. As I've said, I would prefer to get this wrapped up before I leave for Origins. As I've also said before, actions speak louder than words. Time to put my money where my mouth is.

I've been bandying about my leads. Each of you has hit my #1 spot at least once. Finally, in viewing the evidence of how Morgrim was voted upon in Day 1, I have to vote: Voltgloss. No random vote this time.

Again, I'm voting based on actual observable actions and not just speculation. Sure, the timing of Galzria's and Robz's votes can be suspect, but I cannot tell if they were coldly calculated or just happenstance. And Insomaniac and Bozzball have been fairly inscrutable, which makes them suspicious, but I could really only vote for them if I were certain that the other four do not contain both Mafia.

That leaves Voltgloss and jotheonah—two people whose actions did not jive with their words. They've defended themselves, and I acknowledge that. It just wasn't good enough for me. J is a newbie, so maybe he just made a mistake. That one fact is enough to place Voltgloss in the lead.

Now that I've broken the ice, let the hammers fall as they may. Sorry, Insomniac, but I was working on this post before you put in your request. Considering how broken my schedule is, I have to get my vote in before I miss my chance.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 2)
« Reply #389 on: May 22, 2012, 02:43:05 pm »

A brief response to Robz at the request of Volt:

I fully understand that my accusations have seemed to come from left field. I think Kuildeous is playing a very strong Mafia game, and has had everyone pretty well fooled (including myself at one point). Given this, I understand the difficulty in seeing things in a new light. All I can ask at this time is that people really stop and think about what I've claimed. I stand by it 100%. While I will spend my remaining time Day 2 searching for Kuildeous's partner, I have no misgivings in saying VOTE: KUILDEOUS.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Insomniac

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 2)
« Reply #390 on: May 22, 2012, 02:44:55 pm »

Can everyone who has voted please take the time to read my Tables post later if they can I promise it will be posted tonight. I do not ask that you change your vote but consider some points I make. Kuildeous if you are having to leave for origins before 5:00PST I'll understand.

Also can we PLEASE wait to put ANYBODY to 2 votes until some more analysis has been given, I dont want a mafia hammer dropping this early on day 2. I think it would be devastating
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 2)
« Reply #391 on: May 22, 2012, 02:47:18 pm »

To Insomniac: I am on often. If it looks anything like the hammer will fall on Kuildeous before we open discussion on Tables (Your lead), I will retract my vote. I am all for garnering as much info as we can right now. I look forward to more insights on a topic yet to be discussed fully.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Robz888

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 2)
« Reply #392 on: May 22, 2012, 02:53:58 pm »

Can everyone who has voted please take the time to read my Tables post later if they can I promise it will be posted tonight. I do not ask that you change your vote but consider some points I make. Kuildeous if you are having to leave for origins before 5:00PST I'll understand.

Also can we PLEASE wait to put ANYBODY to 2 votes until some more analysis has been given, I dont want a mafia hammer dropping this early on day 2. I think it would be devastating

I suspect Kuildeous much more than Volt, bu I'm not going to vote for anyone yet. I have some other suspicions--principally for Insomniac. My suspicion of J has lessened, and I would be interested to hear his thoughts at this point. I think he's in the anti-Kuildeous camp? I guess we should be a little wary of Galzria and J's closeness but... I know people have suspected me and Volt due to our closeness. And I actually think the mafia have to keep publicly distant from each other at least somewhat.

Anyway, I shared my thoughts on Kuildeous. I don't think I'm coming around on him for the same reasons, but I am coming around. Again, I must say one possibility is that the Morgrim Four--me, J, Volt, and Galz--are our own worst enemies, Kuildeous and possibly Insomniac are playing a subtler, more sophisticated mafia game. (This is counter-intuitive to me, as I started Day 2 thinking at least one and probably 2 mafia are among the Morgrim folk, but I was very wrong on Day 1 and I'm trying to think about things differently.)
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 2)
« Reply #393 on: May 22, 2012, 03:26:21 pm »

So there wasn't as much on Tables as I thought there was so I was able to compile this over a coffee break.

Why Tables?

Who did tables suspect:
   1) Post 63: Votes: J.     Suspected J and Morgrim for no lynch.
      Post 162 Still suspects J but not as much as Morgrim
   2) Morgrim but without much conviction


People Tables DIDN'T suspect:
   1) Bozzball, had suspicions early but assumed town
   2) Insomniac, Voltgloss, Galzria, Kuildeous
   3) Tables (lol)

Notes:
   1) Post 111: Starts to suspect Robz. Drops suspicion in 162


Who suspected Tables:
   1) Morgrim (Probably not relevant)
   2) Robz - Post 154, Post 215, - Both posts note Robz think him and Morgrim are the 2 mafia but seems to suggest that tables is IF Morgrim is
   3) Jotheonah - Post 129 Post 156 (Probably more retalatory as Tables suspected him)
   4) Voltgloss - Post 140
   5) Galzria - Post 138


Now there are TWO main reasons I can see for the mafia to kill Tables
   1) Single bluff - Tables did not suspect this person this person is killed as a throw off to make you think that the person
      he did suspect is mafia
   2) No bluff/Double bluff - Tables suspected this person and they kill to get off the radar or because you might suspect a bluff primarily

Now for a while on day 2 at least people suspect the mafia has been playing high level play, they are playing with some new players so I suspect the
single bluff is the most likely myself. Which unfortunately means I suspect J less but everyone else is still troublesome.

Did I miss anything if I did please feel free to quote and add or copy and add, but as with Voltgloss please bold what you add so that we can skim for it?

Maybe the Tables analysis wasn't as important as I thought but I still think it's worth discussing at least a little.

I look forward to hearing everyones thoughts on this

An aside not related to tables it IS possible according to the setup that there may or may not be another town power role. This is an important fact that
nobody has claimed to be them.
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 2)
« Reply #394 on: May 22, 2012, 03:30:47 pm »

Another point to ponder and the reason I made the list is, with 5 people voicing their suspicions of Tables and Morgrim out and saying he is mafia, why would the mafia lynch him 5 and a confirmed townie having suspicions of him seems enough to convince people to go morgrim.

THIS is a reason to consider it as the No bluff/double bluff play
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 2)
« Reply #395 on: May 22, 2012, 03:35:14 pm »

An aside not related to tables it IS possible according to the setup that there may or may not be another town power role. This is an important fact that
nobody has claimed to be them.

Nobody has claimed it because there has been no reason to claim it, I assume. They should only claim it if they know something or if they are about to be accidentally lynched.

I don't think Tables was killed based on who he suspected/didn't suspect. He didn't have any strong convictions, really. I thought he was subtly defending Morgrim as Morgrim's fellow mafia, but that was obviously wrong. I think he was killed for a combination of the following reasons: Since Morgrim was not guilty it made Tables more innocent in my view; he was a veteran player (I didn't know this but somebody, I think Kuildeous mentioned this) and possibly scary to the mafia; because Morgrim had implicated him killing him created a little confusion.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 2)
« Reply #396 on: May 22, 2012, 03:46:20 pm »

I actually agree more with your second post thought, with this to add:

Tables was really taking his time, giving every indication that he was going to put together a strong analysis once he got caught up. Even though he pointed out that he had growing notes and suspicious odd behavior of Morgrim, we never got to see where that investigation would finally lead. With night falling and Morgrim's innocence revealed, Tables would've been in the best position to evaluate with a clear mind, and open book, as he had been building his notes the whole time.

Given this, the Mafia WOULD have reason to not want those notes and thoughts released. Maybe there were 5 suspecting him, and Morgrim's last point against Tables could certainly seem damning, especially given his innocence. So while having Tabled around would've been beneficial to the Mafia to make a target of, he was probably viewed as a bigger threat to allow his thoughts to go public.

Not to mention it is a very unlikely move. It throws the town into disarray over why (to that end it was successful). Did they have a cop read on him? Maybe. He was certainly careful and analytical in his posts. But I would hope all of us townies act that way.

Sadly, if that line of thought held true, J seems most likely suspect. I believe him to be innocent. Could Jotheonah-Kuildeous team be possible? Ehh... I doubt[/b] it... But maybe I shouldn't be so hasty to write it off.

Good post Insomniac. +1 for the effort.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 2)
« Reply #397 on: May 22, 2012, 03:50:23 pm »

Bah. Bad underline usage .
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 2)
« Reply #398 on: May 22, 2012, 04:28:47 pm »

Lots of new stuff. 3 of the 4 Morgrim voters have now come out against Kuildeous. This means one of four things: (A) Galzria's "1 in, 1 out" theory was wrong, (B) The mafia are desperate enough to throw one of them under the bus to protect the other, (C) Voltgloss is mafia, or (D) Kuildeous is not mafia.

(B) strikes me as the very least likely of these, since the mafia is doing just fine in this game and the pressure is not so high on anyone as to make it necessary.

(C) is actually (B) now that K has voted for Volt.

So that leaves (A) and (D). Neither of which I love. (D) contradicts all the evidence that's been presented up until now.

(A) can be broken down into (a1) Both mafia voted for Morgrim and (a2) Both mafia DIDN'T vote for Morgrim. (a1) takes us back into Robz - Volt territory as far as I'm concerned. (a2) means that either bozzball or Insomniac is probably the second mafia.

I'm not actually building to anything here. But I'd be interested to hear everyone's take on this analysis.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 2)
« Reply #399 on: May 22, 2012, 04:36:07 pm »

I think I'm the very least likely person to be Kuildeous's partner. I've targeted him several times, including on Day 1 with no pressure or incentive to do so.

Galzria's analysis of why Tables was targeted sits well with me - he was clearly about to give us a big juicy analysis and was a good, savvy town player.

As for the second town role, I'm playing as if we don't have one. It's very likely we don't, unfortunately, and we've seen no evidence. I'm going to be very wary of someone who makes a claim to one of the remaining roles. If they are out there and can give us an extra edge this night phase, great. But we're likely on our own.
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"I know old meta, and joth is useless day 1 but awesome town day 3 and on." --Teproc

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